Michigan vs. Purdue, which Purdue team shows up? Vulnerabilities and strengths?
I watched some of the Purdue vs. Indiana game and highlights of the Purdue vs. Illinois game.
Purdue looked very vulnerable to Indiana's run game. I felt like, if they play like that against us, we will run them over.
Then I watched the Purdue vs. Illinois highlights. Illinois looked to be throwing it a lot in the highlights. So I'm guessing Illinois running game wasn't working great, but I don't know. Illinois's running game isn't as strong as Michigan's.
Also, Illinois defense wasn't having the greatest day in that game. They weren't getting a lot of pass pressure, gave up several long 3rd-down conversions, gave up several O'Connell runs (even though he is slow and unmaneuverable), and got a lot of pass-interference penalties. O'Connell looks less maneuverable than all the QB's Michigan has faced except Petras.
As someone posted in another thread, Purdue has a very good QB, receiver (Jones), tight end (Durham), and running back (Mockobee). It would seem like if we get at least some pressure on the QB and cover those other three guys, we'd be in good shape. But they did score 31 points against Illinois, which is supposed to have a good defense and which played us quite well.
I'm hoping we try running Stokes against them for a bit and see how it goes, and some passing for balance of course. I'm hoping that we don't have to use recently injured players so that they can have extra healing time for the CFP.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:00 AM ^
Purdue seems like a poor man's OSU to me. They have a bad defense and a bad running game but can pass the ball. Iowa and Wisconsin were able to run on them. I think we'll be fine.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:12 AM ^
Yeah, they can put up some points, but it'll be tough for them to put up enough to hang. We should be able to put 40+ on them. Something like 41-17 would be my guess...
November 28th, 2022 at 5:10 AM ^
So I'm guessing Illinois running game wasn't working great, but I don't know.
Didn't Chase Brown get carted off in that game? I'm guessing that had a lot to do with it. Illinois has a great running game (not too far off of ours), but it's built around Brown. The drop-off behind him is huge, whereas at least we have Edwards behind Corum.
November 28th, 2022 at 6:40 AM ^
I though that happened on one of the last plays of the game?
November 28th, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
So, a lot of these diverging things are correct. Brown had a reasonably productive 98 yards and 2TDs on 23 carries. So, Purdue was runable, but they did put up a fight.
Brown went off with under a minute left in the game, so the injury didn't have a lot to do with the loss. That said, you are absolutely correct, there is a precipitous dropoff after Brown, and Illinois was trying to build something at the end when Brown went down.
Ultimately, Illinois' D giving up 31 points to Purdue and Devito struggling all day with Purdue's pressure is what decided that game. My guess is Illinois may have been looking ahead a bit to their blood rival Michigan as well. Illinois doesn't have the talent level to look ahead of any Big Ten team.
November 28th, 2022 at 5:54 AM ^
Trick plays, trick plays, trick plays.
Michigan must be ready.
November 28th, 2022 at 6:05 AM ^
I’m not the least bit convinced by walk-on Mockobee. Very Good and Very Good vs. the Big Ten West are two different things.
November 28th, 2022 at 6:22 AM ^
He's actually pretty good. He did take a Corum type hit to the knee at the end of the game vs. Indiana. He was helped off the field but came back in for another carry.
Michigan just needs to be mentally focused to play a tough game. College football man...
November 28th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
"Good vs the Big Ten West" and also the RB in a pass-first team. My suspicion (admittedly I haven't watched Purdue since they played PSU in week 1) is that teams have sold out vs. the pass because O'Connell and those receivers are the bigger threat. Mockabee is the beneficiary of that.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:07 AM ^
They call themselves the Spoilermakers…they will throw the kitchen sink at us. They are well coached and play above their abilities. If we give them our full attention then it’s a rout. If we get caught looking ahead, like Illinois, it will be a battle. I think Michigan comes out laser focused and wins 42-10
November 28th, 2022 at 7:47 AM ^
No need to look ahead, next game would be a month away. Beating Illinois was not a team goal. Winning the B1G is. They will be focused.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:54 AM ^
Can you look ahead to an opponent that hasn't been named yet? It's either TCU or USC but I don't think you start to gameplan for either since they have to win their con. champ games to. This is the teams last step to hoisting a conference trophy, and Ohio state is no longer looming afterwards. The only possibility would be for the team to feel accomplished and not give 100%, but McCarthy made it clear during the presser that they aren't finished, the east title means nothing to them and they have a B1G title to win. I think the players are ready.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
Well TCU and USC could both lose next week. For that matter, Georgia could lose too. We could be playing Bama on the 31st for all we know.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
There is a slight, but non-zero chance, that we could be against osu again. The committee showed last year that they will try (right or wrong) to avoid rematch in the first round of the cfp, but I also have no faith in the ability/integrity of the cfp committee.
I would not mind seeing TCU & USC win this weekend.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
It’s been discussed that Michigan makes it to the playoffs regardless of what happens on Saturday. That could cause a case of “looking ahead” to the playoffs. I highly doubt it happens but worth mentioning.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:01 AM ^
They aren’t. Purdue has no more of a penchant for upsets than anyone else, and they certainly didn’t this year. Ignore that media attempt at a psych job. This will not be close
November 28th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
Their 2 big "upsets" last year were 1) an incredibly fraudulent Iowa team and 2) an MSU team that was also fraudulent with the exception of a single generational RB.
They haven't beaten any top-5 teams in 2022. And 2022 Michigan is astronomically better than either of the 2021 examples.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
I don’t really understand the look ahead when you have a month until the next game. We seemed to be just fine last year…
November 28th, 2022 at 8:08 AM ^
The biggest issue isn't so much the "look ahead" but the "keeping the business like focus after an incredibly emotional win". I was beyond impressed last year how they did it and I think the same thing happens this year. It's simply "back to work" for this team.
Purdue will throw all kinds of crazy stuff at UM and I imagine their whole thing has to be to shake UM early and get them disoriented (trick plays, quick scores, etc.).
November 28th, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
I took a gander over to "Hammer & Rails". My three takeaways after 15 minutes on the site reading the comments.
1. They feel good but still a bit weird? about winning the West. Just happy to be in Indy and of course have nothing to lose.
2. Half like Brohm, half really don't.
3. The team is made up of a lot of other team's "throw away" guys. Walk-on's, etc. starting.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:18 AM ^
Purdue's QB is going to the NFL. He is not afraid to run the football himself. He has four great targets in Sheffield, Jones, Durham and even tailback Mockobee.
Aidan O'Connell to probably going to play the game of his life in Indianapolis against Michigan:
November 28th, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
This will be our 4th toughest opponent of the season. Neutral field, coming of the highest of highs against a team that will live and die by the big play. Purdue is on house money with a chance to go to the Rose Bowl for the first time in over 20 years. I expect this game to revert back to the mean of Michigan games this season (unlike our previous 2 games). Steady first half, maybe allow a big play or two and head into halftime with anywhere from a 6-14 point lead. If Minter can scheme up a plan to stop OSU for an entire half, he will have one ready for the Boilermakers too.
Close-ish early, comfortable win at the end. 37-14.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
Get Stokes the majority of the reps in practice get him ready mentally and physically… will be a great tandem with Edwards to punish their D !!!
November 28th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
The irony about Purdue is that they're probably the second best rushing team Michigan will have faced all year. Mockobee runs weird, but once inserted into starting role vs Minnesota, Purdue has been a different team.
Their defense is aggressive, but seems like an group of misfits and castaways that play aggressive AF and make some TFLs and PBUs but at the cost of dumb penalties and busts.
You never know what version of Boilermakers shows up to football games. That's maybe why fans love-hate Jeff Brohm. Aidan O'Connell-Charlie Jones-Payne Durham-Mockobee are fun to watch, but losses to Wisconsin and Iowa, ouch.
Which Purdue team shows up vs. Michigan?
- The Purdue that gained 608 yards vs. Nebraska at home, but only won by 6 pts?
- The Purdue that matched Illinois statistically throughout and on the road to win by 7 in the 4th QTR?
- The Purdue that punted and INTed their way into a 21 pt loss at home vs Iowa?
Purdue beat Illinois on the road by 7 pts. Ran and passed well against their defense too.
I don't think Michigan will look past Purdue though, given what's at stake (Big Ten title)
November 28th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
Pretty sure Purdue rushes for under 130 yards per game. Feels different due to all the dumpoffs to Mockobee.
Looking up their team stats, they're even less impressive than I thought. Still probably a bit dangerous, but let's not sound alarms.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
I've watched 3 games this year. The poor man's OSU is a very good comparison.
They want to control the ball with short passes and timing routes. Mike Morris being a week closer to 100% will be huge.
Okie likely won't be as effective because their passes are so quick, but Morris can get deflections and push tackles into throwing lanes.
They're going to try to put Colson in conflict like Iowa did...Purdue looves a throwback screen where the sprint right and throw it back to the TE on the left.
But Charlie Jones, the Iowa transfer is by far their biggest weapon. Just double him and bracket him from the start. O'Connell relies on him like Iowa does LaPorta. They'll force it to him. Just take him out of the equation.
Purdue is willing to run, they had success against Illinois. This is where I think the game is won - Purdue and it's OL and RB versus Mazi Smith, Jenkins, Graham, Grant, etc.
I think Michigan can have reasonable success stopping the run without committing everyone. Leaving the safeties free to help with misdirection and pick plays in the passing game.
Definitely start out in the 2-high we used versus Illinois and OSU (and hopefully against #3 TCU on New Years Eve).
Offensively, RUN THE BALL! Purdue struggles to stop the run and when they do, they have to commit DBs. When that happens, PA pass.
Michigan's offense should be a NIGHTMARE for Purdue.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
Your point about Mike Morris is spot on. I think the team can cope pretty well without Corum, but Morris will be key to stopping the run and getting pressure on McConnell so he doesn't get too comfortable.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
If we play our typical close to the vest run first game without turning the ball over we SHOULD win comfortably. I feel comfortable giving Stokes a bunch of carries with Gash as the backup. Corum will likely dress but not play. But I am hoping he is healthy enough to actually give it a go. Edwards should only play as a decoy.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Hard disagree on Edwards. He clearly showed he can be effective with that cast. Maybe he's not used as a receiving threat but I still think you have to give him 10-15 carries at minimum.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
When I think of Purdue, I think of a Kroger-brand OSU. Similar styles, similar weaknesses, nowhere near the level of talent quality.
The thing to worry about with Purdue is that once every 2-3 years, they go All-World on a top-5 opponent and just smash them to pieces. There's no real rhyme or reason for it, but it just happens. Happened to OSU in 2018, happened to MSU last year. That's what Michigan needs to guard against, because Purdue has the ability to play well, WELL above its head and score massive upsets.
Have to remember that this is all house money for Purdue as well. First time in Indy, against a top-5 opponent no one expects them to beat, Rose Bowl ticket is on the line. They've got nothing to lose here, so whatever Brohm has left in the playbook that he hasn't used, its coming out on Saturday night.
Purdue will no doubt be motivated in this game, and they're good enough to score some points. But to me it seems like the only way they beat Michigan is if Michigan lets them win. They have some offensive talent to be certain, but they are not good enough to play Michigan man for man and win. Again, unless Michigan lets them win, or they have such a massive, emotional hangover from this past weekend that they can't re-group and focus on Purdue. Which Harbaugh seems like the coach who would not allow that to happen, but emotional hangovers are very common in these types of situations.
Michigan knows what is at stake. There really isn't any "looking ahead" to the next opponent in this game because, frankly, we don't know who that will be yet. If Michigan just gives Purdue its undivided attention and doesn't commit a litany of self-inflicted wounds that directly lead to Boilermaker TDs, it should win fairly comfortably. I'm not thinking 42-3 like it did against Iowa last year. But 42-17 or 42-21 sounds about right.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
I'm not worried at all about the emotional hangover. For one, they didn't have that last year after what was arguably a more emotional win. They came in prepared, clinical, and focused. I expect the exact same this time.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
We still had much to prove last year.
This OSU win validated everything and was a long culmination.
This team is a serious contender but we better not be fucking around Saturday
November 28th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
Man up Sainristil on Chuck Sizzle and we all go to bed happy on Saturday.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
On B1G Final Drive, it was pointed out that Purdue is 3-0 against Top 5 ranked teams under Brohm. However, those were regular season games and I believe those wins were at home on their field. Last yeast, MSU was at Purdue and got spanked.
This is different because this game is essentially a playoff game, not so much for Purdue but the Boilers do not have this kind of big game experience that Michigan now has.
Harbaugh and staff will have our guys totally focused for this game. Can it be another blowout for Michigan? The bar is set high from last year's 45-3 smashing of Iowa in Indy but the Maize and Blue are capable of another blowout. I'll be happy if we beat the point spread, some 15-18 pts now.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
The key is a fast start! The two sketchy losses for Purdue followed the same script with Wisconsin and Iowa getting up quickly with a two TD lead. Purdue isn't good as a one dimensional team. Their RB (Mockobee) is special so we need to score TDs early to keep the ball out of his hands and double team Charlie Jones the WR. If we do this then it will be a blowout, but if we let them hang around it could be a nail biter.
November 28th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
I think the line will create rushing yards for whoever is carrying the ball. I like the indoor venue with no weather elements as one final get-right game for JJ's deep ball. That would go a long way towards making our CFP opponent have a lot more to worry about in their preparation.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
There is nothing for this team to gain or prove in this game. This is "exhibit A" of the unmitigated foolishness of the B1G football divisions. I would be supportive of Coach Harbaugh resting the first string in this game-all of them. Avoid (further) injury and let the second and third string play this game.