EJ Holland of On3 predicts 2024 QB Jadyn Davis to Michigan
https://www.on3.com/db/jadyn-davis-52766/recruiting/138528/rpm/
No news on the reclassification. Michigan is pulling out all the stops for him on the BBQ weekend.
You SHUT YOUR MOUTH when you're talking to me.
Also, i read a comment from him recently saying that some schools are pushing him to commit and he appreciates those that are not. I wasn't sure if this was good for us or not - but I hope we're just paving the road, not shoving him down it.
Would be a big get though.
Interesting in the bio that there is an "NIL Value" dollar amount right there at the top along side of his height, weight, position, HS, hometown...
No only that, but I think on on3? they rank team's recruiting classes by a variety of factors, including "average NIL per player" or something like that. Bama is at 250k+. we're at 35k. I get that its skewed a bit by high end guys getting big money. Just another measurement to see who is doing the best job.. In the old days, it was.. you can win with 3 stars.. now itll be.. you can win with guys who only get 50k.
I dont know exactly what that metric means - whether its value per player, or what they're getting... but if an elite QB wants big money, he's going to get it - whether he loves UM or not. I dont know if that's Davis or not.
That's interesting, I'd love to see a breakdown...is it per scholarship player? What if you have walk-ons getting money? Is it based on the current year? Previous year? Who provides this information?
That's a very good point, I think we will see stats related to wins with regard to average NIL value...
Check this out. Go here: On3.com | The Best of College Sports and Recruiting
They have a whole menu dedicated now to NIL.. recent deals, rankings, etc... its the new star rating.
And above (or below), someone made reference to NIL value = # of followers? I thought that was a joke... its not. They list the # of people following. Making Bronny James and Arch Manning #1 and #2.
It's basically an algorithm, they are somewhat transparent about it. It's not perfect be any means, and probably a work in progress. Kudos to them for forward thinking.
https://www.on3.com/nil/news/about-on3-nil-valuation-per-post-value/
Yes, but right or wrong, this is how many players are going to measure their football worth. Going to lead to a lot of confusion across the board.. not all that diff than the star system. I'm sure it'll get honed over time, as they realize what positions, types of players, potential etc.. are worth the most.
From what I recall, many star rankings are specific to how they think this player will do at the NFL or NBA level, not necessarily how good of a college player they will be... Wonder if this will lead to similar discussions.
Very interesting. So this is more like an estimate of what a player might expect to earn in total (since it's based more on marketability instead of quality as a football player), but NOT necessarily what a collective might be expected to pay to get him on campus / retain him.
For the collectives that exist solely to get a player on campus / retain him and don't care about the marketability of a player, the "value" is potentially totally different, at least it is if they're doing it right (and they'll probably start to figure it out).
For instance, an elite OL is about as valuable as it gets in terms of what he brings to the football team so a collective that only cares about team success should be willing to pay him a lot, but he likely doesn't bring the same value to a brand that wants him to be a sponsor.
Kind of like the disconnect between what a guy is paid by his NFL team vs what he might make via sponsorships. Teams don't value RBs that much, but since they get the stats and TDs and are on fantasy rosters, they have a lot of marketing value. And vice versa for OL.
By this logic, the best basketball player in the history of UM is Adrian Nunez. . .
Not the "best" but it's saying he might be most "valuable" to someone who is actually paying him for his NIL, and that could be the case for him.
Are you saying he isnt?
-Mr. Nunez
Right now the tail is wagging the dog. There are going to be consequences, unforeseen ones, for those schools barreling down this NIL path. I am pretty sure that there is going to be a lot of remorse on all sides of this issue-with the course it is currently on.
I see that NIL value as completely arbitrary and doubt too much real analysis went into it.
I second that emotion.
We love a Smokey Robinson reference
When I was a kid, I always thought it was "a second hand emotion." It never made sense until my 1967 Holy Redeemer graduate father corrected me.
So did I lol!
" 'Scuse me, while I kiss this guy."
I’m baking carrot biscuits
“There’s a bathroom on the right”
Webb seemed pretty adamant that Davis wouldn't be committing this early
Yeah, i read essentially the same. I don't think they should push him. Just lay it out there and get him to come back for a big game or two.
The shoot your shot here is to push him to be JJ. Commit early, recruit the 2023 class even though he’s a 24 and make the 2024 class lights out. It’s kind of selling him as the big man off campus if you will. Dunno if it will work
I’ve listened to Sam say the same. However, Sam and his crew have fallen off a cliff the last 6 months or so, in my opinion.
It seems like the last few podcasts they hype up a prospect or two and literally within days said prospects are committing or getting crystal balled elsewhere.
DJ Chester, Kenyon Saddiq, Paul Mubenga, etc..
We all have our bad days, but it just feels like EJ has a better pulse on the recruits this cycle
However, Sam and his crew have fallen off a cliff the last 6 months or so, in my opinion. It seems like the last few podcasts they hype up a prospect or two and literally within days said prospects are committing or getting crystal balled elsewhere.
Wait so Sam is only supposed to do segments on players we're definitely getting? Come on, man. He can't control our staff's recruiting struggles or teenagers' decisions
I know reading can be hard, but if you read the rest of my post I suggested that EJ just has a better pulse for this class. As you said, hard to manage expectations with the whims of teenagers and general recruiting struggles, but EJ is doing a better job than Sam and TMI crew. That’s all.
Sam may well be a negative for Michigan out on the recruiting trail. As a recruiter, you cannot be approaching these kids in such a hyperbolic manner. I always found recruits to be very thoughtful and very well informed-and averse to exaggeration and promises. The most important thing is to develop trust. I much prefer EJ's more measured, conversational approach.
"Sam may well be a negative for Michigan out on the recruiting trail!"
Huh?
Davis would be a huge QB get after the depressing Carr and Moore news.
I just clicked the On3 link and found it interesting that they have his "NIL Value" listed at $149K. It's a brave new world out there in the NCAA football recruiting world. But I have questions: How the hell do they determine NIL valuations? What market data does On3 possess that allows them to assign NIL values?
I’m guessing part of it based on number of followers you have on social media.
If the StarkTimes is a reliable source, it estimated that Adrian had a net worth of $3.5M last fall due to brand promotions, advertisements and other business ventures. Pretty good for a 23 year old.
Where the F did I go wrong and why am I not promoting brands to my 1000 closest friends who I haven't spoken to 90% of them in the past 5 years?
Well, he has 3.6M followers on TikTok so you have a long way to go.
I would guess it's mostly bullshit.
Me, too, but at least one person in this thread seems to have taken it at face value.
His "value" is what someone is willing to pay. It is more than this number.
Who the F cares? There's no penalty for being wrong. So these sources get to sound knowledgeable and authoritative simply by making a guess. I'm going to say, "he's really enthusiastic about Clemson." Now pay me!
Calm down - geez. EJ is a really thoughtful guy when it comes to his relationship with recruits and his reporting.
These "analysts" don't typically guess, this is probably based on conversations with Jadyn / his family / coaches / etc... in terms of his current line of thinking. Of course, it doesn't mean that it will necessarily end up being correct as 17 year olds certainly can change their thinking in a hurry.
And the "penalty" is that if you are consistently wrong - you lose credibility with the site and the viewership.
I'm calm, I promise. :-)
I just think we're a bit through the looking glass here. It certainly is a guess -- it may be a more or less educated guess -- but unless you're telling me it somehow reflects hard/cold fact, it's a guess. And I don't think most people are keeping long-term track of how accurate these "expert" guesses are over time. Maybe you do -- honestly, maybe you do. But I've seen reports like this for 15 years, and I certainly have no idea which prognosticators are more accurate, and which less.
Instead, we treat it like a sport in and of itself. According to this, we're "winning" this particular recruiting battle. I get that, in the off-season, we're desperate for any form of Michigan-football-related competition, but ... a sport in which my team's success or failure is based entirely on what someone else thinks might happen isn't one I'm much interested in.
But I get that I'm the wet blanket. Go Blue! :-)
This does not appear to be one of Maizen's alternate accounts...
How accurate is EJ Holland?
He knew what Jordan Elliott was going to do before Jordan Elliott did.
And he was right...
disturbingly more accurate than DJ Manistee
That would be nice!
BAR-B-Q
I'm curious how good the bbq actually is or if they're just grilling.
I 100% agree. Grilling is great and all but nothing gets the saliva glands going like good BBQ.
I can't swear to this, but I feel like at one of the previous editions, they had Slow's