Is Michigan State's Resume Overrated?
Apologies if anyone else has already performed a deeper dive into Sparty's resume up until this point. I was just taking a look and realized that, while Michigan State is certainly a very good team, there are some fluky things to consider when evaluating them up until this point:
-No one circled the MSU game on their calendar prior to the season (up until this point in time anyway). Not having the burden of big expectations and not getting your opponents' best shots makes a difference.
-Beating Nebraska was nothing short of a fluke. Granted, Nebraska is a solid team and there is no shame in losing to them. But how would our perceptions of Michigan State be different had they lost to Nebraska at home?
-Indiana was an ugly performance and while this type of things happens, it's worth noting that this contest took place right before their bye week. In other words, it's difficult to argue that Sparty was looking past their opponent with an eye toward the following week.
-The Miami game really shifted people's opinions but that was before we knew how mediocre Miami is. In addition, Michigan State was facing 4th down on the 40 yard line with four and a half minutes to play while holding a one score lead. In other words, with less than 5 minutes to play in the entire game, no one was confident who would leave with a victory. That's not the impression you get from looking at the final score (38-17).
I'm worried about Cade (who isn't?) and I suspect the real X factors in this game will be our linebackers and safeties avoiding mental mistakes and not missing tackles, which is easier said than done. But upon closer inspection, perhaps Michigan State isn't as dangerous as we think.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
Yes. So is ours.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
It’s no different than Michigans so it shouldn’t really change your perception of the game. There was our one score game against a bad Rutgers team at home. Or the fact that if you look at underlying stats we were extremely lucky to get a win against that same nebraska team.
If you asked my opinion I would say this game is probably between two top 20 teams but not top 10
October 28th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
Not really. It's a game between 2 teams that aren't one of the top 3 (UGA, OSU, BAMA) teams in the country - and the next 15 teams are essentially interchangeable - and who would win amongst that second tiers head to head is based mostly on matchups and chance
There is a seemingly obvious gap in talent from those top 3 to the rest of the top 25 in CFB so the fact that UM and MSU are undefeated leaves their rankings deserving....even if their respective level of play this year is not what we would generally associate with a top 10 team in other years.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
What underlying stats suggest that we were “extremely lucky” to beat Nebraska?
October 28th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
UM vs Neb MSU vs Neb
1st Downs 26 19 12 26
3rd down efficiency 6-15 3-11 1-11 7-20
4th down efficiency 0-0 1-3 0-1 2-2
Total Yards 459 431 254 442
Passing 255 291 183 248
Comp-Att 22-39 18-28 14-23 25-36
Yards per pass 6.5 10.4 8.0 6.9
Rushing 204 140 71 194
Rushing Attempts 42 32 30 50
Yards per rush 4.9 4.4 2.4 3.9
Possession 34:24 25:36 22:32 37:28
In the second 1/2 MSU had 5 drives 0 first downs and 12 total yards. Nebraska also ran pretty well against them.
Well these are the stats. I'm not sure where these hidden mystery stats he is talking about are.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
ak47's MO is being confidently incorrect.
October 28th, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
All the time with a little Maizen mixed in.
October 28th, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
Wouldn’t the numbers look pretty much exactly opposite if you compared the results of Rutgers? Someone could walk through Michigan’s record and tell a similar story.
Saturday is almost certainly the biggest test either team has yet faced. The winner will be much more deserving of a top 10 ranking.
October 29th, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
Nothing is hidden. It's out in the open that he doesn't know what he is doing.
October 28th, 2021 at 9:14 PM ^
I'd agree we were not "extremely lucky" - though I remember Bill Connelly's postgame win expectancy had Michigan somewhere around 40-45%. I think MSU was the same vs Nebraska, and in the 30s vs Indiana. Turnovers helped swing the result in all cases.
October 28th, 2021 at 10:51 PM ^
With all due respect to BC, his post game win expectancy is kind of bullshit- some of these numbers just don’t pass the eye test. You can’t ignore turnovers, and they are not all random. On top of that, Nebraska made their hay (corn?) on a few big plays but we’re generally not very efficient. I’d say anything with 40-60% post game win expectancy means “a close game that could have gone either way had a few plays gone differently.” Now a team that won with a very low post game win expectancy- sure, that team was probably pretty fortunate.
October 28th, 2021 at 10:44 PM ^
Literally nothing. Just a side comment from him that you should accept as fact.
October 28th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
The score. I mean besides the score, what else tells you who won? Michigan was extremely lucky to have more points at the end of the game. They had less of everything else against NEB.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:21 PM ^
Are you getting us mixed up with MSU? Sparty beat Nebraska at home in OT and gained only 250 yards, was out gained by almost 200 yards.
They also put up about the same yardage against IU.
OTOH Sparty hasn't played anyone near the caliber of defense as Washington, and I'd say a night game in Lincoln is harder than any game MSU has played.
EDIT and how could I forget Wisconsin, whose defense is currently ranked #2 in FEI.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
Same caliber as Washington?
What's their record again.
Cmon
October 28th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
Their defensive FEI is 16th. Sparty has played two teams with a pulse on defense. Indiana, who is 32, and Nebraska (whom we also played) who is 21. Both of those teams held them to ~250 yards of offense.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:24 PM ^
If PSU/Iowa was a top 10 matchup, this most certainly is. Outside of maybe Georgia (who only beat a 4-3 Clemson team by 7), every top 10 has a fluky win or two, a loss or a resume that has some holes in it.
I’m also interested in looking at these underlying stats…
October 28th, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
I don't think anyone rates it highly to begin with. It's quite clear Miami turned out to be a complete joke. A bit like Washington for us.
The only real difference I see between schedules and results between us and them, is their offense was utterly terrible against decent defenses in Nebraska and IU. In both games they got outgained (against Nebraska almost by 200 yards!) and couldn't run the ball. And Nebraska was at home.
Yes, we also had one utterly terrible half (Rutgers 2nd), but that seemed almost entirely self-inflicted rather than being opponent dependent.
Their extreme offensive struggles in those two games and our defense relative to Neb and IU is what gives me the most confidence going into Saturday.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:16 PM ^
Rocky fucking Lombardi -- a career 8 YPC QB that has zero business starting for a P5 team, threw for 323 yards and 3 TDs against this secondary last year.
Let's see Michigan win the game first before throwing shade at Staee's resume.
Also on the subject of resumes, the combined record of Michigan's opponents thus far is 27-25; inflated by a 6-2 N. Ill.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
27-25 is meh. But that means their record against teams other than us is 27-18, which looks pretty respectable.
Edit: If I counted right, State's opponents are 19-30, oof.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
*respektable
October 28th, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
Why do people keep referencing last season as if it is remotely relevant to the current season?
October 28th, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
How did Rocky do against Michigan’s secondary this year?
Don’t bother looking it up. He was 9/17 for 46 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.
Let’s give the secondary some credit - this year they are significantly better than they were last year, both in actual coverage and in disguising coverages.
October 28th, 2021 at 9:40 PM ^
46 yards, and i can't honestly remember too many of them.
October 28th, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
Just because it is the same players in the secondary does not make it the same secondary. Both experience and coaching matter. Vincent Grey as a second year starter is clearly better than Vincent Grey as a second game starter. Daxton Hill is much better with a combination of Mike Macdonald and Ron Bellamy than Don Brown and nobody.
The defensive line is also much better. There is plenty of evidence of both of these points.
October 28th, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Against our secondary last year which is in a totally different defense, with completely new coaches and a totally different gameplan...
Maybe you have been in a fucking hole since the covid year last year where most teams had half their players sitting out during the week and rarely practiced.
Michigan's defense this year is giving up the 2nd fewest yards in the country per game behind georgia..
October 28th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
They have the same resume as us. And for that matter, it's probably par with Ohio State's resume - they smoked Rutgers and Indiana better than either of us, but other than the Oregon loss haven't had to play the likes of Nebraska/Wisconsin. And for that matter, all three of us have a resume at least as good as Oklahoma, who hasn't blown out an opponent yet.
Everyone not named Georgia looks flawed. IS flawed. These are two 7-0 teams that have looked identical, both have a close win against a feisty opponent, an ugly win against a bad opponent, and otherwise have blown out everybody they've played. At this point we both deserve top ten rankings. Now is the time where we prove it.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
I don’t think either team should be ranked in the top 10. This game is definitely a coin flip. Just hope it goes Michigan’s way this time.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
Funny.... Just leave spots 4-10 open because you will find it hard to fill those spots with other teams.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:07 PM ^
Who should be in their place?
October 28th, 2021 at 6:25 PM ^
Everyone in this thread is right. Absolutely no different than ours. If anything, the Miami win is better than our Washington win because Miami is less bad and it was on the road. And while they’ve struggled in a couple of games, it’s no worse than almost letting Rutgers win while at home.
Whoever wins Saturday will have by far the biggest notch on either belt.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
I'd argue that our win on the road vs Wisconsin is better than any of their wins. Also, we didn't almost lose to Rutgers. Rutgers had a middling chance to tie the game. MSU needed a miracle to beat Nebraska and were outgained by 200 yards.
This is part of the reason the fancy data likes us better than State, although I don't think the resumes are radically different.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:45 PM ^
I would not point out Wisconsin or anything positive. It doesn't go with the narrative...
October 28th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
Given that Wisconsin is favored to win over Iowa this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if they are the favorites to win the Big Ten West. Although that probably speaks more to how bad the Big Ten West is rather than much about Wisconsin.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
After seeing PSU-ILL game, I am not sure if the problem is exclusive to B1G WEST. Illinois had no business of winning that game on the road even with PSU's star on the defense out.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
Never underestimate Little Brother, especially this year.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^
Yep... everyone was taking "I can think of 3-9 reasons" shit and then the punt happened.
October 28th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
You’re going to want to check your timeline on that statement
October 28th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Wow... MSU has not played a team with a winning record. We've played three. Ohio State has played three as well, one of which they've lost to.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
I'm worried about Cade (who isn't?)
I'm not.
It's asinine there is a QB controversy.
I know Cade is going to manage the game, protect the ball, and for his shortcomings, I still trust Cade's accuracy more than say Shea's. I'm glad Cade is the starter.
I suspect the real X factors in this game will be our linebackers
Josh Ross has been an animal the last couple of games. Hill-Green is leading the team in solo tackles. Ojabo looks like he is going to breakout at any moment -- and he is leading the team in sacks and has 2 fumbles. No worries there.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
I'm not worried about Cade either, and I'm in the 'Lets see more of JJ' camp. Cade is a competent quarterback who makes the right decision a lot more than the wrong one, doesn't turn the ball over ( and I reflecting one 1 turnover through 7 games), and who I don't believe is at his peak. It would be a very pleasant surprise if Cade puts all aspects of his game together and is the MVP of the game.
October 28th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
It is bizarre to me that the same person has those takes and then says:
Rocky fucking Lombardi -- a career 8 YPC QB that has zero business starting for a P5 team, threw for 323 yards and 3 TDs against this secondary last year.
If you have watched the team enough to make those observations about Cade, Ross etc, how can you suggest that there hasn’t been significant improvement in the secondary? They aren’t great, but they certainly are not last year’s secondary.
October 29th, 2021 at 12:35 AM ^
It's bizarre a troll like you thinks being complimentary where it is due and critical where it is due have to be mutually exclusive.
Go run along little one and try to whip up a nice COVID post for us mmmmmkay?!
October 28th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
Hey, they're still 7-0
WIN THE GAME
October 28th, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
I’m not worried about Cade.
The X-factor is what happens if MSU’s offensive and defensive lines collectively bring their A+ games and it turns into a real battle in the trenches.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
That will be a X-factor only if our line does not bring their A+ game. After reading more about MSU, I am getting confident that our A+ game will be too much for them. Let us hope we bring our game.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:56 PM ^
We’ll find out on Saturday.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^
Sure, their record may be overrated. They have played inferior opponents and had some lucky wins. But that's what good teams do, win the games they play and take advantage when opportunity presents itself. Their record this year isn't much different than ours. We haven't played anyone tough this year, Wisconsin and Washington were supposed to be those kind of opponents but were not. Washington is not who we thought they were and Wisconsin was a very limited team when we faced them, they are just now starting to show some life.
All that said, I think Michigan has been more dominant in their games on offense and defense. Football is a game in which strange things happen and even more so in rivalry games. Basing win or loss for Saturday based on resumes is time poorly spent. We are less than 2 days away from the game, just wait on it and see what happens. I think UM will win but wouldn't be shocked if we do not. Irregardless of the outcome I think MSU is a solid team this season.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:12 PM ^
Who cares? They are undefeated, we are undefeated. At the end of the game, one team will still be that way and one won't. Both of us will eventually need to beat Penn State and Ohio State to stay undefeated.
Resume right now is irrelevant. Resume in November is all that matters.
October 28th, 2021 at 7:42 PM ^
Agree
just WIN THE GAME