In Soviet Russia, Chase Wolfs You
9/25/2021 – Michigan 38, Wisconsin 17 – 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten
There is another feeling related to the grim gray grimness discussed in last week's column after the second half of the Rutgers game was not good. It is being on the other side of that, watching some yahoo in the other team's uniform with his helmet on wrong attempting to do a complicated thing while 270-pound men try to sit on him. When he fixes his helmet one of his thigh pads falls off.That sort of thing.
Usually he's been pressed into duty by injury or, in extreme cases, a mid-game resignation letter pinned onto the center. Usually he has an implausible name and instead of career stats they just put up the grimace emoji. Usually he hands off until it is third and long and then the adventure begins.
So what you need to know about "Chase Wolf" is this: he threw one interception on eight attempts and this significantly lowered his career interception rate. Once Graham Mertz exited the game it was a matter of naming the final score. There's a pleasant feeling of relief when the opposition is on offense and things are very, very dull.
--------------------
Getting there, though: that was interesting. The play on which Mertz gave up the ghost was a slot blitz from Dax Hill. Michigan waited until the snap was imminent, then fired back a safety and rotated another one down.
Mertz seemed to think he had a hot route in the area that RJ Moten had vacated, but David Ojabo had dropped off the line and was standing with the TE; he hesitated and then got buried.
This blitz is not alien to college football, or even Michigan—Greg Mattison liked doing things like this—but it does stand up as the clearest indicator that this defense is not the defense Don Brown wanted to run. Opposing quarterbacks have talked about how difficult it was to predict what Michigan was doing on any particular snap. Rocky Lombardi in fact made a direct comparison to the previous season, when it was not at all difficult to predict what was about to happen.
Opposing coaches and color guys have said things like "this team is built to beat Ohio State"—not to say that they will, but that they aren't going to roll into The Game expecting that they're going to win by manning up Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. If we do get a competitive outing* it'll be on the backs of plays like the above, where Michigan sends a couple of guys through unblocked and the quarterback doesn't know what he's supposed to do.
Confusion is dual-edged blade. If you can apply it, you win downs. But trying to do so inevitably exposes your own team to risk. Whenever someone is struggling we hear about the coaches "simplifying things" (in fact heard it in this game about Mertz). We have not heard that about the Michigan defense, in a transition year, running a bunch of stuff that other teams think is pretty hard to figure out.
Michigan has in fact been remarkably impervious to busts. Implausibly so, even. They've given up a total of 4 plays of 30 or more yards, and a couple of them have been in garbage time. That's tied for fourth nationally with, like, Alabama. They're also tied with Alabama in 20+ yard plays. As we approach the halfway point of the season it's probably time to start believing that this defense is in the right spot almost all the time and importing guys from the Ravens might have been a pretty good idea.
We gloried in Michigan's gaudy fancystats rankings under Brown until Michigan entered The Game with the top defense in the country and got completely shredded. Michigan's D is up to 8th in SP+ despite not having overwhelming talent, and we don't know that their WRs are going to simply outrun Michigan's secondary en route.
We merely supect. Progress!
*[This outlet is not allowing anyone to approach the football. Do not approach the football yet. Lucy is still holding it, and she is a wily beast indeed.]
AWARDS
Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week
this is not the same picture that was in this spot last week [Fuller]
#1 Aidan Hutchinson. No sacks, somehow, but absolutely rampant all the same. Drew a holding call when two different guys gave up and decided to tackle him. Flushed Mertz into various sacks not credited to him. PFF's national defensive player of the week, and yeah.
#2 David Ojabo. 2.5 sacks and another forced fumble as he teleported around Wisconsin's admittedly iffy tackles. Also dropped into the hot route on the Mertz-breaking play detailed above.
#3 Roman Wilson. Breakout game for him with six catches, including a deep, contested one on an armpunt. Popped open a ton; could have had a seventh catch if he didn't accidentally step out of bounds before acting as a safety blanket.
Honorable mention: Cade McNamara hit enough throws, including the flea-flicker, to make this comfortable despite some wobbles. Cornelius Johnson got the easy one but also came down with a tough fade for a second touchdown. Dax Hill had a sack and an INT and wasn't too much at fault on the quick TD drive. Brad Robbins averaged 45 yards a kick despite some pooches, allowed zero returns, and used the power of his mind to induce a Wisconsin muff dorf. Jake Moody was 3/3 on FGs and also offered no returns.
KFaTAotW Standings.
(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)
22: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc)
16: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU)
11: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU)
7: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers), Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU),
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers)
Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week
[Fuller]
Flea flicker so pretty they should have run it again.
Honorable mention: Dax intercepts; Ojabo forces a fumble; Wisconsin's pass pro is overrun; McCarthy bombs it to Baldwin again.
MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.
Wisconsin's quick strike x2 drive to turn 13-3 into 13-10 at halftime was unbelievable and maddening right before a 20 minute period where nothing else happened.
Honorable mention: Michigan has to settle for 3 after the muff; M gets stuffed on fourth down on their first drive.
[After THE JUMP: war. war never changes. oh wait i mean QB debate never changes]
OFFENSE
shame about the wheel [Fuller]
Eye of the beholder. Seth and I had some disagreement about Cade McNamara's performance on the podcast, particularly the first couple drives. I was more skeptical of McNamara; he was more skeptical of the wide receivers. I do agree with Joel Klatt that the pass behind Baldwin late in the first half was more on Baldwin, who was running a crossing route against zone coverage and should sit down before his route takes him into the linebacker.
Other McNamara misses just seemed like misses to me. He was frequently behind his receivers on slants and the like, and those plays should be run such that your guy doesn't have to break stride and can maybe pick up yards after the catch. The wheel route to Donovan Edwards was almost miraculously placed: if that gets out fast and flat or if it's lofted downfield there's little the safety can do, but the ball was in about the only location that gave the guy an opportunity to make a play on the ball.
On the other hand, when Michigan dialed up the flea-flicker McNamara made that look dead simple…
…and he had a couple other lovely touch passes. The deep ball is real.
Overall: 17/28, 7 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INTs looks solid against a good defense. We got more data in this game than we did in the previous four combined, I think, and it was… acceptable? Decent? Solid? Pick your middling-to-good descriptor.
[Fuller]
Contested means it's contested. Saw some debate on the internet about whether the wide receivers needed to come down with more passes than they did. I am team "no." Johnson snagged the touchdown above on a fade that was a little short and inside, taking contact. Other downfield opportunities were more like this:
[Fuller]
There were opportunities to turn behind and make catches early in the game but those are tough and were probably borderline 1/2s in UFR charting. Hypothetically they could have done better; realistically I think between the Wilson contested catch and a lack of true drops they did well for themselves.
I miss fullbacks. Michigan got repeatedly stuffed on short yardage in this game in a way that made me pine for the Ben Masons of the world. Michigan ran short yardage split zone a ton and Wisconsin got them a few times by slanting a DE/LB under a tackle, which consistently delivered a Badger to the backfield.
These are some of my least favorite plays to watch. You've got a guy lined up inside an offensive lineman, slanting away from him, and then everyone wants to dump on the OL chasing a defender into the backfield after being asked for the impossible. It is at times like these that I grunt like Tim Allen and angrily declaim about good old fashioned iso wompin'. Your short yardage plays should be as stupid and unkillable as possible, like zombies that lurch forward two yards at a time, and split zone ain't that.
Anyway I miss the days when third and two was an auto Mason conversion and think college teams should have a fullback.
Blake Corum for fullback? I mean no but also yes?
That was his most Mike Hart But Fast play yet. Grinding out that first down is not a thing that is possible, and yet.
[Fuller]
Daylen Baldwin loves JJ time. Second time McCarthy has hit him for a long touchdown when the game was already decided. Maybe try it in the second quarter once?
DEFENSE
Rampant. Six sacks and somehow none of them were from Aidan Hutchinson. He did draw a holding flag, and this is apparently what it takes:
It is unfortunate that Alex keeps pointing out that various opponents are not too good at football—he had Wisconsin's OT pass pro issues pegged—and that our hype level should be somewhat reduced, but that's more of a reason to pump the brakes on David Ojabo than Hutchinson, who was rampant last year before getting hurt and is now being touted as a top 5 pick many places. PFF called him "the best player in the country" this week.
zip zap zoopity bop [Fuller]
Meanwhile in ends. Ojabo got his pass rush with one move: blasting around the corner and dipping before the OT could get back. That is early Uche stuff, and Ojabo is a bigger guy so it's even more impressive. That was his rep as a recruit, a get-off monster who didn't have a lot of experience, and it'll be interesting to see if he's developed some counters against tackles that can cut him off on the outside. We're a game or two away from serious hype, IMO; it's one thing to win a matchup and another to consistently beat whoever they put across from you.
Late first half Ope. Dax Hill got beat a couple times on Wisconsin's last gasp touchdown drive but the thing I'm wondering about is what is Brad Hawkins doing here?
Standing flat-footed and not getting any depth in that situation seems extremely strange to me. There's like 20 seconds left in the half, seems like deep centerfield is a spot you want a guy. Transition cost? Or just a playcall that got beat?
Meanwhile in Dax. Do not anger Dax Hill by dropping a dime over his head twice in a row. He will then deposit you on the sidelines and intercept your replacement.
Holding up. Also in "I wish this was regular Wisconsin": Michigan stoned the Badger ground game. Most years this would be cause for a ticket-tape parade. This year Michigan joins a list of other decent-to-good P5 teams who have done the same.
Still, though! Badger RBs combined for 57 yards on 21 carries; I'm pretty sure the previous two games Wisconsin had 57 rushing yards by the end of their first drive. Michigan's hodgepodge collection of DT/DE types looks less hodgepodge as the season wears on. I caught Mike Morris driving a UW OL all the way across the formation; Jess Speight held up against a third-and-short; Jenkins and Jeter continue to rotate in and function decently. Between those guys, Hinton, and Smith there's a lot of bodies even with Whittley missing a second consecutive game.
Continue to ask again later about the cornerbacks. Michigan CBs were barely targeted in this game, for the Nth consecutive game. The two completions to Dike were against Hill, and the only other completions to WRs were three shortish catches that Pryor made. (Wisconsin TEs with catches: 3. Wisconsin WRs with catches: 2.)
Say what you want about Adrian Martinez but he's going to be the stiffest test Michigan's secondary has faced to date.
SPECIAL TEAMS
mind beams [Fuller]
Stay forever specialists. Moody hit a pair of FGs near 50 that featured a slight draw. Creepy and repeatable. Robbins put two punts at the five and had a 49-yarder with no return. COVID-shirt them until they're 80.
As a result. I mentioned that special teams could be decisive and that Michigan looked like they had a big advantage. They were not decisive—game wasn't that close—but the advantage did manifest. This was most notable after Michigan got stuck on their own one. They got a first down, had to punt from the 17, got a three-and-out, and started their next drive at the 40 because Robbins and AJ Henning both did good things.
Henning did something on all three of his returns, averaging 12 yards a pop. He's averaging 15 yards a return(!) so far without breaking one for a touchdown. His long is 36. Something brewing there.
MISCELLANEOUS
Go go go go. Michigan's aggression on fourth down early was appropriate, especially given the game state. As mentioned, I wish they'd have something other than split zone duo for those plays but the decisions were either on point or close enough to neutral that nothing bothered me. If I was in charge the fourth and two right before the muff would have been a go, but given Wisconsin's run D and their offense I think either choice is defensible. Once you got up a couple scores punting was more attractive since this didn't look like a game where Wisconsin was going to drive the field more than once or twice.
Pop up? Why? Wisconsin's quick strike TD drive started on the 37 when Michigan decided to pop the ball up. The downside was immediately apparent. Giving up ~12 yards in that situation turned out to be relevant. This did result in a fumble from the upback, I suppose, but I don't think you can bake that into your decision making process.
I guess Wisconsin's returning a deep kickoff no matter how deep it is at that point, and you did avoid that, and the chances of what happened happening are pretty low. For me the 12 yards there is pretty relevant for a potential late field goal. Verdict: no.
HERE
As for UM’s offense, they nearly doubled the total rushing yardage the Badgers had given up all year (112 yards to 69 yards) while also throwing for over 250 yards at 60% completion percentage and 3 TDs, by far the best performance any team has had against Wisconsin in the air. So on one hand, empirically this was a great performance against maybe the best non-Alabama/Georgia defense in the country. On the other hand … it had it’s moments. Michigan’s long run on the day was a mere 8 yards, with Haskins and Corum never getting into much of a rhythm between the tackles or breaking anything at the edges.
No 1: Finally this year the roster has matured, 49% of the roster are upperclassmen; including seven super seniors: starting MLB, starting Safety, starting C, starting LT, 5th OLmen, 3rd TE, 3rd DT and punter. . And even though there are only 11 seniors left from the 2018 class, nine of them are starters! Keep in mind none of theses players would have been blamed for leaving the program in the last year after a 2-4 season and a coach's hot seat, but they decided to stay.
There was a slight increase in shits given as well - 12 more than last week's 76 shits. It has been far more common through the Harbaugh era for stressful games, such as what Wisconsin would have been were it not for their collapsing and dying basically, to cause almost geometric increases in the amount of profanity. Not this time though - the Wisconsin thread was a full 30% longer than the Rutgers thread, and there were only 40 or so more instances of tracked words. We were....on edge, but as we know, winning blunts the potential toxicity of these threads considerably.
"Suck" was stable compared to last week, and as you again might expect, it was concentrated to just before and after halftime, when there was still rather sizeable uncertainty and before Mertz was knocked out of the game.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Love the update on the quote on the banner.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Thanks for pointing that out!
October 4th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
The answer is not to kick at the football, but instead kick at Lucy.
October 4th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
Oddly enough, this is how I felt about this Michigan Football team when in full BPONE.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
I believe it was Dax Hill that KO'd Ferguson also with a rib shot. Hopefully Dax body blow knockouts become a thing.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
Legit surprised that Brian led this post with a photo gloating and glorifying Michigan injuring an opposing quarterback so much so that it put him in the hospital. How the moral high-ground mighty have fallen.
October 4th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
your profile pic is a guy who got fired for choking a player
October 4th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
My favorite was Woody slugging the sideline ABC cameraman right after an OSU fumble.
Who would have thought that if you can get away with slugging a network cameraman on national TV you might think you can also slug a guy on the other team on national TV too!
October 4th, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
Hayes got fired for PUNCHING a player, choking was another time and he didn't get fired for it
October 4th, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
I’m guessing you don’t like this classic picture either
October 4th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
Or this?
October 4th, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
but Quinn wasn't knocked out of the game
October 5th, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
Super!
October 4th, 2021 at 3:51 PM ^
It was a clean tackle that just happened to take the starting QB out (and get a sack). Not sure what your issue is.
October 4th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
It was clean, but you'll notice he led with shoulder with intent off knocking down Mertz, rather than wrapping up. /not complaining, but I did feel sorry for him
October 4th, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
You may wish to consider the additional injuries that may have come with wrapping him up, following through and driving him into the ground. Dax's hit was very kind relative to the speed and force of the collision that ensued.
October 4th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
Compared to the headhunting Wisconsin did to our QB's in the past I don't feel sorry.
October 4th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
Don't forget we also lost Grant Newsome thanks to their corner submarining his knee.
October 4th, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
mike martin also says hello
October 4th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
At some point people just aren't going to be ok with anything other than two hand touch on the qb - and you'd make make sure you don't touch him too hard! It was a clean hit. Sorry Graham got hurt but it's Dax's job to get there ASAP
October 4th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
The flag football was played on Sunday. As Al Borgess said on Michigan Insider . . It’s an occupational hazard.
October 4th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
the goal is ALWAYS to rattle the QB and take him off his game, it wasn't a shot to the head or a dirty hit after he let go of the ball, it was a full on shoulder into his ribs which is both clean and legal tackle.
wisconsin is known for and has injured more than one of our QB's in the past (Peters in 17 and McCaffrey in 19) with blows to the head.
Peters was actually picked up and had his head slammed into the turf which was an extremely dangerous play that didn't even get flagged.
McCaffrey's guy was at least flagged
Hills hit was clean and rocked Mertz and changed Wisconsin's game plan.
it's football, people get knocked out of games all the time not just QB's but LBrs and lineman and RB's/WRs.
as long as it's a clean hit it's how the game is/should be played.
October 5th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
Though, since he pulled out the old Yakov Smirnoff "In Soviet Russia..." bit for the headline, he could have gone with...
"In Soviet Russia, hill climbs you."
or...
"In Soviet Russia, safety seeks you. And leaves you in heap on ground longing for days when Comrade Brown was Minister of Defense. New minister much trickier - though Comrade Brown scores big points for mustache like Stalin."
October 4th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
With the focus now on body tackling low(er) to avoid the head and potential targeting, I wonder if rib injuries like this are becoming more common.
Gronkowski had broken ribs and a punctured lung. Rhett Rodriguez, same thing.
Time to beef up the padding around the ribs, eh?
October 4th, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
The trend in college football rules making over the past ~20 years in the name of player safety (which is really more about mitigating risks from future class-action lawsuits) seems to be ultimately heading for some form of touch football. Sad to see it happening, but easier than trying to draw lines between un/acceptable risks (and admins will always default to the "easy" solution if it doesn't lose them money).
October 4th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
May not be talking about the same hit, but McBurrows looked like he separated Ferguson's shoulder on one
October 4th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
You are probably right. Dax hit in the ribs at 9:33 of the second quarter and he played the rest of the quarter.
October 4th, 2021 at 4:47 PM ^
And speaking of McBurrows-that young man may be Dax next year. That young man is fast and brings it.
October 4th, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^
McBurrows high school tape showed great aggressiveness as if he wants the ball, and not just making it incomplete.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
even with Whittley missing a second consecutive game.
He played. Got in late on the drive when Upshaw steamrolled Wolf. Definitely saw that little 3 on a big belly.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
Yup. Saw the same thing, thought it was hilarious seeing a #3 on a big fat dude, then remembered the Whittley thing.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
Brian, Michigan is good.
And our stock is only going up
I'm so excited for Saturday. They hype is taking holdddddd
October 4th, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^
He was more positive here than he was in the podcast, IMO.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:17 AM ^
The Lucy effect is real.
October 4th, 2021 at 5:27 PM ^
I’m so excited. I’m so…scared.
October 4th, 2021 at 10:18 PM ^
90’s deep cut there. I’m impressed!
October 4th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Please start a petition to play the OSU game UTL.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
IIRC, B1G won't do night games that late in the season.
3:30 would end at night though, which would still be awesome (you know, assuming that whatever happens on the field is not decidedly terrible)
October 4th, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
I recall hearing that as well. If ever a time for Warde to really press the B1G on something, this would be it. That place is a decidedly different atmosphere UTL and provides a serious advantage for us in a way that the Big House never did before (and can't do during the day).
October 4th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Even if Fox were willing to give up it's favored noon slot for the game, OSU would say 'HELL NO' to playing UTL in Ann Arbor. LOL!!! That's not even a question!
That said, if both UM and OSU said they wanted it at night, both Fox and the B1G would bend over backwards to make it happen faster than Urban could find another coed to grope...
October 5th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^
How dare you mess with tradition. What’s next? Do you want Blue pants???? All blue units??? I mean seriously, what world do you live on that would suggest these are good ideas
October 4th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
For the first time in a LONG time I watched the game with the good type of nervous energy I havent felt since 2016. Excited because I was pretty sure something GOOD, not bad, was going to happen next to my team. They are obviously so well coached.
I love this year's squad. They are playing with energy, confidence and enthusiasm - all of which have been missing for quite a while.
FWIW before the season started I had us going 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, PSU & OSU. At the time this put me squarely in the cockeyed optimist camp wearing maize & blue filtered goggles.
It now appears I was actually a pessimist.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
I predicted 7-5. I had thought losses would be to WA, WI, PSU and OSU. Plus another loss to a team we should beat like MSU or IU. I thought NE would be an easy win but not too sure now, I think we will be in a big fight with them and Michigan always have trouble with spread running QBs. So, I'm more worried about NE than MSU now.
October 4th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
Definitely more worried about Nebraska than MSU as well. Because 1) Nebraska clearly looked the better team and MSU just got lucky to beat them and to your point 2) Michigan v spread running QBs / janky college crap often doesn't go well.
Nebraska's defense is playing much better and Martinez is dangerous. It's not at all going to be the gimme it looked like it might be after they lost to Illinois (which still, how did that happen?).
October 4th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
Nebraska and MSU are both good teams. Can't sleep on either of them. State because it's their season on that day and Nebraska because it could define their season.
We're pretty good, but ask a much better OSU how taking a week off in the Big 10 worked out for them last time they went to Iowa.
October 4th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Yes, agree they're both good and certainly can't sleep on either of them. Nothing I said suggested otherwise.
But Nebraska is both a little better than MSU and a relatively worse matchup for Michigan, IMO.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Some of our short yardage and goal line plays are driving me crazy. Shotgun and pistol formations? They need to run some old fashioned power like you said with a fullback/TE blocker in the backfield and the QB under the center. They can run a sneak from there too if its close. They could also play action off it when they get near the goal line. Some of those old fashioned plays are hard to stop. I hate to see us settle for FGs when we get down that close. Otherwise a really good game.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Didn't they run a QB sneak from under center with JJ? He turtled and wouldn't have come close if not for Stueber (fullback on the play) driving him into the end zone!
October 4th, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^
Sainristill did a lot of that lifting, yet he gets no credit for it!
October 4th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
Yeah, it was Sainristil and the RB (Haskins, iirc) who got him In the end zone
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