Why always call for 3 pointers down 1 or 2?
March 31st, 2021 at 12:54 AM ^
The only thing worse than a long 3 at the buzzer is trying to draw a foul at the buzzer. Unless you're Virginia and the world feels bad for you, they're not going to give you free throws on the last shot. You have to make a shot, period
March 31st, 2021 at 12:44 AM ^
Wagner went off script. He got left really open and decided to shoot, which was obviously a horrible call considering he has hit like like 1 3 pointer all tournament.
The Smith shot was good one. He's one of our best shooters and was wide open.
We had something like 9 shots to tie or win the game and blew them all. Sometimes it just isn't your day.
March 31st, 2021 at 12:45 AM ^
There is zero doubt in my mind Franz was supposed to drive to the basket off the pick for a shot at the rim. Unfortunately, unlike on Sunday or any game against a Will Wade team, the other coach looked like he actually deserved his paycheck. I’m sure he told his guys to sag off of Franz if he got the ball. Michigan made, I think, 3 jump shots the ENTIRE GAME.
TBS showed their game summary when it was 44-43 UCLA. At that point, UM had 32 points in the paint and I think was 3-7 on FTs. Chaundee had hit 2 3s, so that means UM had only made 1 other jump shot the entire game. UCLA packed their defense and dared UM to shoot. And tonight, the mother than Chaundee the team missed close to every single shot they took.
Doubtful that was the plan with was 0.5 seconds on the clock. There was only time for a catch and shoot. If Franz drives the lane, the game is over before he attempts a shot.
That isn't the shot people are talking about. Of course he had to heave the one with .5 left. They are talking about the play down 1 with 20 seconds left.
March 31st, 2021 at 12:50 AM ^
OP, did you see us miss every other layup?
Yep!
March 31st, 2021 at 12:51 AM ^
If we had played like this against Gonzaga, they might have beat us by 30+
I don't think we would have played this bad again, but we were lucky to even be in the game really.
March 31st, 2021 at 12:57 AM ^
Smith had a good look after he managed to create some separation from Tyger Campbell. It just didn't fall.
Something was wrong with Franz in this game. His body language was off from the very start. I wish Juwan hadn't kept going to him late.
Still a great season, and Juwan is still a hell of a coach.
Dan Leach said the same thing
40% shot to win it vs 60% shot to have a 50% shot to win in overtime.
I've read this entire thread full of dumb takes and this is by far the dumbest. First of all, where are you getting 40%? Our lone 40% distance shooter hasn't played since the Big Ten tourney. Smith or Wagner making these were maybe 20%, if we are being generous. Secondly, you worry about your chances in overtime when you actually get there. UCLA already had a key player foul out while we had nobody in foul trouble. We would have been favored in overtime.
This wasn't just an issue for us in this game, I've seen it all season and all tournament long and it makes me want to pull my hair out. Teams with size that should be banging it down low instead jacking up contested off balance threes, even when they only need one point! it's a disease and I can only speculate that it comes from the NBA, where the stupid fucking analytics assholes have decided that the only thing you should ever do is shoot three pointers and play terrible defense.
and you know what? it kind of makes sense to jack threes in the NBA, where you have world-class shooters, and where fouls are largely irrelevant because you get six and because benches are extremely deep. Also because the majority of the time none of the players even really cares who wins. maybe they care for a few minutes at the end of games, or when they get to the playoffs. otherwise it's just jacking off threes... Jack Jack Jack.
In college, if you have any size and talent down low, you should go to the paint early and often, and certainly at the end of games in critical situations. This game should have ended differently than it did so we could get the satisfaction of being waxed by the best team in the country.
The same jerk offs who are defending taking those three-point shots probably have Phil Coke jerseys in their closets. ("but he's the best left-handed reliever on the team, who else are you going to bring into critical situations despite his long history of abject failure? look at the advanced stats! Re-sign Avila! Jimmy Howard is amazing!")
Smith was a 42% three point shooter on the season, Franz was a 35% shooter. You are out of your mind of you think their probability of making each shot was 20% or less regardless of the nights they had till that point.
Franz was 35% from 3, but shot 2-16 in the NCAA tournament and 6-28 in the Big Ten & NCAA Tournament
That shot was not going in.
Similarly, Smith shot 5-16 in the NCAA Tournament and was 10-32 in the last 8 games. He was cold as well.
If we were going to jack a 3, it should have been Brown (7-12 in the the NCAA) or Brooks.
Here's the problem -- we didn't have a guy who could create for himself regularly for 39 minutes. When your leading scorers are Hunter, Davis, and Johns Jr where do you go when you need a drive to the cup? If you told me that our final 4 hopes would come down to a WIDE open Franz Wagner three from the top of the key, I'd like my chances. We just don't really have a bucket-getter, even when our whole roster is healthy. There isn't a Burke, or MAAR, or Stauskas who can take somebody off the dribble pull up from three, pull up from the elbow, or get to the cup. I thought Wagner would eventually be that guy, but for whatever reason he doesn't get aggressive until the last 5 mins of a game usually.
We dont have that guy but there's no rule that the last shot of the game has to be a clear out, one on one go get a bucket a la Jordan. We could run pick n roll, set double screens to free up Chaundee or Eli, etc. Basically run the offense that made us successful to begin with.
When down 2 late, simple math. A 3 wins the game, and an open look goes in ~35% of the time. A 2 only gets you to Ot, where you have a 50/50 shot at winning. And 2s at the end of the game generally aren’t great shots, as refs swallow the whistle. Let’s say your 2 has a 50% chance of going in. 50% x 50% puts you at a 25% of winning if you go for 2
Except Michigan was only down 1 when Wagner jacked the 3.
Except neither of those two 3's were called.
Both were great looks, you have to make one.
Second! when Mike Smith had the ball, he had a path to run and make a layup, possibly draw a foul to seal the win with a free throw.
March 31st, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
He didn't have a clear path, he got the shot he did because the defender was bailing out towards the basket to try and take that away.
March 31st, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
No he didn't. His defender was playing extremely loose. The path to the basket had his defender in the way, plus an inevitable collapse of other defenders once he got closer to the basket.
Everyone resorts to the magical "but he would've gotten fouled" narrative if he drives to the hoop. That's pure folly. And then in your dream world he hits both free throws and sends us to a glorious OT win. There's an equally good chance that his shot gets blocked by a 6'7" help defender, or that he doesn't even get a shot off.
Mike Smith got a fantastic 3 point look that rimmed out. End of story.
March 31st, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
If you're pissed about Mike Smith's missed 3 pointer, please just get over it. We had under 6 seconds to go full court. That's more than enough time to get to the rim, but Mike Smith had an extremely clean look. His defender was playing conservatively, most likely to defend what he thought was an inevitable drive to the basket. You absolutely take the first clean look you can get in those circumstances. There's not enough time to run any other action. I'm more pissed if we don't get a clean look. We did. We missed. It sucks. That's basketball.
I would be curious to see the stats and percentages of driving to the hoop vs shooting a three pointer. The officials rarely call fouls in the paint as time is running out. Just a guess, but an open three seems a better option to me than getting hacked and no foul being called. Also long threes equal long rebounds which may be better than a chance at a put-back or tip-in. - I’m sure someone has run the numbers and I could be completely wrong.