Do QB changes actually work? When does it make sense to change? Milton =...Cardale Jones?
Few topics of discussion:
With all the talk of switching QBs, I was curious if anyone had any data on whether or not switching QBs has a positive effect on a season in regards to replacing an established starter.
Off the top of my head, I can think of a couple of examples: Ian Book for the other Notre Dame guy last year, Connor Cook for Andrew Maxwell in 2013...Tyrelle Pryor for Todd Boeckman for Ohio State in 2008? Are there a bunch of examples of this failing miserably that I'm not thinking of?
There are also single game examples as well: Tua for Jalen Hurts against Georgia, not by design but I genuinely believe that Haskins coming in for Barrett won Ohio State the 2017 game. Minor, minor example, but Brandon Peters for O'Korn in 2017 against Rutgers.
Does the timing of the switch matter?
If Shea doesn't look good against Illinois and McCaffrey is still out with a concussion and McCaffrey is good to go against Penn State, do you really roll with Patterson if you're Harbaugh just because its a big road game? Don't you just go with who you think gives you the best chance to win? Or is the concern that because its a high profile road game, McCaffrey is more likely to be re-injured in some capacity due to poor decision making because he's nervous (or something along those lines)?
Joe Milton = Cardale Jones?
Let's say Patterson continues to look lost and McCaffrey is not ready because of the concussion: Could Joe Milton not step in and be a version of Cardale Jones? They are roughly the same size, both have cannon arms, aren't considered true mobile quarterbacks but can move if necessary and in theory both should be hard to bring down. If you think Charbonnet could fill the Elliott role in this scenario, don't you have to roll with it? Milton's arm should be able to stretch the defense (even if his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired) and open things up for Charbonnet, which should in turn cause the defense to respect the run.
Anyway, I hope that the switch goes on and Patterson finds his form again, but thought these ideas were worth discussing in case it doesn't happen.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
It's very possible, maybe even likely, that Shea gives us the best chance to win, even if that chance is smaller than we'd all like it to be.
I'm not sure if a QB change will help the OL block better, the playcalling to be better, WRs to not drop the ball, etc.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
I think QB changes work when your offensive unit (running game, blocking, screen game etc) is otherwise effective. M's offense is largely broken so any new QB won't have much to lean on immediately unless he one/two things exceptionally better than Shea to open it up.
It's not fair to compare Cardale or Tua or Haskins or Book to Michigan. Those offenses were already fundamentally sound enough to allow the new QB's unique strengths to shine.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
That's a fair point. It reminds me when (Henne I think?) started as a frosh with Mike Hart. We had a great OL and good WR's.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
I think it's a difficult balance. On the one hand Shea is probably the better thrower, but he requires a clean pocket and an obviously open WR, preferably his primary target. On the other hand both McCaffrey & Milton are better runners and may have a higher upside against better defenses, but they also have a higher risk/reward. So, they may have a great game against an ND/PSU/OSU and actually give us a chance to win whereas Shea will most certainly fold in those games. But, they also may make a ton of mistakes against an Ill/Ind/Mary that could cost us what should be an easy win whereas Shea will likely handle business against those guys. Plus, if you bench Shea and the backup sucks it can hurt Shea's confidence and could make it even worse if he has to return to the starting role.
It's a crap shoot. I think you have to stick with Shea for now and hope to get more opportunities with a lead against Illinois for the backups. If the backup comes in and plays great you can use that as evidence to supplant the starter. But, if they are meh, you have to stick with Shea until a bit later in the season. But, if Shea continues to struggle against both ND, PSU, & MSU you may consider benching him and giving the backup time against Indiana to prepare them for OSU and look for the future.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Who is your Devin Smith, because that role was more important than 'Zeke's.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Devin Smith averaged 21, 21, 15 and 28 yards per catch for his career. DPJ has averaged 12, 13 and 10.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
that's a function of the offense, not of his talent though.
I'd bet you a dollar DPJ has more than 2 td's 4 years into his pro career.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
Exactly.
October 9th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Is it? Devin Smith's first year was 2011, the Luke Fickell season, which if you recall, OSU's leading receiver had 14 catches. Smith still managed 21 yards per reception. His next two years, 2012 and 2013, OSU had a 1,000 yard rusher at QB and was not a very good passing offense. At some point, your stats are your stats. At no point has DPJ ever been the deep threat that Devin Smith was, and Devin Smith played on a bad OSU offenses and some extremely run-heavy OSU offenses and still managed 20.7 ypc for his 4-year career.
Maybe DPJ will have a better pro career than Smith, but that's probably a function of him being a different all-around player. Also, Devin Smith tore his ACL at the end of his rookie year, missed most of his second year because of it, and then re-tore his ACL before the start of his third year and was waived. He's really never even had a chance to establish himself in the NFL because of injuries.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Brian created this monster, but can we just stop with this change the QB stuff. It isn't happening when your head coach thinks the offense is about to take off and click. Please let's see if that happens before burning the bridge!
October 9th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Regarding the Cardale Jones point, Urban Meyer had lots of experience using the positive attributes of a truck-sized QB with moderate speed and accuracy (Tebow). I don't think Milton's size would be as big an asset in our offense, and he's no more mobile than Patterson or McCaffrey.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Cardale Jones was who he was because he had an OL that could blow Alabama off the LOS, and had lining up next to him arguably the best or second best RB that OSU has ever had.
Joe Milton has potential, but he has nowhere remotely close to the supporting cast or OL that OSU had that year. He =\= Cardale Jones.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
It clearly wouldn't be as effective, but it seems like they have the same (broadly speaking) personnel. OL that returned four all B1G level starters, several athletic WRs and a talented RB.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
I'm not sure I agree that our personnel is similar to 2014 Ohio State, but if even if it was our coaching / offense scheme is very different.
October 9th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
you say "different", but i think "shitty" is more accurate.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
I would love for Milton to be that
But Braxton Miller was a 2 time B1G OPOY winner who got injured, and JT Barrett got the job. Then JT threw like 35 TDs in relief, then got injured in The Game. So Cardale was sitting behind 2 really good players.
Our starter has 6 TDs through 5 games and hasn't been benched. That tells me Milton isn't at the same development as Cardale at the moment.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
The staff left the starters in for the most part when Joe Milton entered the game against Rutgers. They wanted to see him respond. That said, they should have given him series in the 2nd qtr! And let the full offense go.
He had several good passes and the TD was a broken route and adjustment by both players. Good to see tbh, but we need more snaps before deciding he is ready to jump in and lead the team. What we don't know is what the staff is seeing happen when they are live in practice and how he is responding. That is a key element to this. If he turns the ball over, misses reads and decision making isn't right in practice but it is for Shea and for Dylan, well Joe is going to remain the 3rd team qb for a reason.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Harbaugh is not changing Qb. End of story.
Regarding Patterson throwing deep...he has neither a strong or particularly accurate arm. Watch the deep throws that are completed and often the receiver has to slow down or nearly stop.
Talent-wise he is already maxed out. Being able to read/run RPO will help immensely but he has not shown the ability to do that or the desire to keep the ball himself.
Patterson is a serviceable but not elite Qb and many just need to come to grips with that fact.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
Everything that's ever been written about Shea is that he is a very accurate deep ball thrower though...it's literally the only thing he does well outside of throwing on the run.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
Maybe Jim Harbaugh can be our version of Urban Meyer bc in theory they both wear a headset.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Milton is a bad QB
October 9th, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^
I firmly disagree. He's inexperienced, and most likely erratic. But he has shown flashes of huge talent.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
The 2016 offense was legitimately good. They were able to change tempo as the game dictated and they were able to run the 2-minute drill. The only knock was they couldn't salt the clock away by getting a key first down late in the 4th quarter. That inability ultimately cost them 2 losses.
Here were their point totals in 2016: 63 51 45 49 14 78 41 32 59 13 (Speight gets hurt) 20 (JOK QB) 27 32
Those are seriously good numbers. What killed that team was not having a viable back up at QB.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
even without a viable backup, if a kickoff isn't fumbled at iowa and JTs spot is marked correctly, they are either #1 or #2 in the country heading into the playoff.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:08 PM ^
We need to "let it go" when it comes to McCaffrey. I was apoplectic when he got his head torn off by Wisconsin, because I knew in that moment it meant he would be sidelined for weeks and eliminate ANY chance we'd see a QB switch. Milton isn't ready, and you don't throw him to the wolves in game 1 at PSU. The only possibility is if McCaffrey was cleared to practice this week and has been practicing since Monday....maaayybbeee you give him some drives against Illinois to see what he has vs. Shea. But I'm assuming that's not true.
Guys, it's Shea. It's going to be Shea from here on out unless he gets injured. He has the tools to win us games, yes even games like at PSU, so long as Don Brown doesn't get scorched like he did against Wisconsin or OSU (or at PSU like last time). And there is still a non-0 chance things click and the offense will start looking much more competent from here on out.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
Milton is a 3 star, Cardale Jones was a 5-star.
Yeah, do it. What could possibly go wrong?
October 9th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Cardale Jones was a 3-star according to the 247 composite.
Joe Milton was a 4-star according to the 247 composite.
October 9th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
Ah yes, thank you for the correction.
But just like Justin Fields, Cardale Jones didn't go to any classes.
October 9th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
no. they don't make sense.
October 9th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^
Patterson is the safest qb to play. But not that much better and way less potential , which is why I’d make the switch.
October 9th, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
I think that's right. He's a known commodity in the eyes of the coaches, and likely the most consistent QB in practice. But he's been total ass in games this year, so it's natural to wonder how one of the other highly talented QBs in the system might run the show. This is not a Russell Bellamy QB depth situation. It'd be nice to chalk up Patterson's struggles to navigating a new offensive scheme, but that doesn't seem quite right -- the mistakes he's making are very basic in nature. I'd love to see the staff take a chance on Milton in this upcoming game, but they probably won't. Whatever.
October 9th, 2019 at 6:19 PM ^
Patterson gives us the best chance to win now. Lose 1 more game and then play for the future. Whoever you think will be the starter next year should play.
October 9th, 2019 at 8:56 PM ^
If Harbaugh has shown anything-it’s that anything short of the starting QB being set on fire will make him change it.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:18 PM ^
We could go to a run heavy ball control RPO offense with Milton and I guarantee you we would have a better chance the rest of our games then trying to air raid with a QB that cant read the defense.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
Preach, brother, preach!
October 9th, 2019 at 10:04 PM ^
Joe Milton is not Cardale Jones and the switches work when the backup qb is actually better then the current starting qb. Which I would say is more likely in college then pro. In our case IMO we need to make the switch to mccaffrey now if healthy to get him ready for the game.
October 10th, 2019 at 6:51 AM ^
Milton is likely Shane Morris.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
I see your point, but I could talk myself into Shane Morris at QB after this half-season of Patterson. Morris had a cannon and was less hesitant on his throws. He also sucked at reading a defense, but still, better athlete than Patterson.
Also, Milton is not Morris. Milton is definitively more physically imposing and athletically gifted than Morris. That matters a lot in college football.