Bill C previews Michigan - Wisconsin
Interesting breakdown. He demonstrates how predictability on offense has been one of our biggest problems this year.
I define standard downs as first downs, second-and-7 or less, and third- or fourth-and-4 or less. Passing downs are everything else: second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more. Obviously teams run the ball more on standard downs (58% of the time on average) than passing downs (34%), but the Wolverines are far more extreme than the national averages: They're running 67% of the time on standard downs (24th most overall) and only 20% of the time on passing downs (14th least).
Both Middle Tennessee and Army took full advantage of this tendency, blitzing and stunting with abandon. And Patterson was dealing with plenty of second- and third-and-longs because MTSU and Army also knew when the Wolverines wanted to run.
Unfortunately, SP+ picks the Badgers, but that should hardly be a surprise given how things went for both teams in weeks one and two. But also shows the roadmap for winning: mix it up on offense and force Wisconsin to pass on defense.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
Tomorrow could be a really interesting day. The Madison, WI current weather predictions have thunderstorms beginning around 11 AM, and really lasting in some form are another for the rest of the day. The predictions are pretty confident, 60% chance where I looked. It could be one of those great noon games that ends at 7 PM. It looks like a game that, at a minimum, will have to concede one weather delay.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
I keep having nightmares of the 2017 MSU game. I don't think the weather will be anywhere as bad as that, but this looks like the kind of game where you want to get the lead before the weather sets in. Hard to shake BPONE.
And 15+ MPH winds don't look promising. On the plus side, it's possible the weather could take some of the road factor out of the game.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
It looks like there is the possibility of it being more like a 2017 PSU at MSU type game. The forecast right now is straight up Fugly (yep, bringing it back). Frankly, I think situations like that tend to favor the visiting team because it can work to negate the home field advantage. If it is a "clean game" we are looking for (no delays) I think the actual best hope is that the storms blow in early and the game is just delayed instead of started and stopped.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
While the storms could take the crowd out of it quite a bit, I’m more worried that in bad weather we decide we need to protect the ball and get into a ground war. That would not end well.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
I think it is kind of impossible to know how that would go. Runyan back, assuming Charbonet is healthy it could set up a pretty good day for him. Wisconsin a little green at NT, I think they start a true freshman in a 3-4. Defense held up well against the Army run attack, obviously not Wisconsin but the defense looked to have pretty good lateral speed and generated a nice pass rush when given the opportunity. That is what is crazy about this game. 4 games in and I know almost nothing about these teams. Taylor is really good. That is pretty much the only slam dunk.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I think poor weather/field conditions almost always favor the underdog. In this case I am not sure there is a major difference between to the two teams so I am not sure how much it I will affect either.
But when there is a significant talent gap I think poor weather can be a great equalizer.
September 20th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
They certainly have the advantage with the best RB in college FB, but Coan cannot run. Both our QB's are capable of hurting them with their legs.
September 20th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
Only if they pull instead of handing off all the time....
September 20th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
Thank goodness our coach likes to throw it 80% of the time when it's a monsoon. Maybe he'll put Milton in as well for an extra challenge.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
Quick tangent - I'm still bummed we lost that game, not just because it was a loss to MSU - that's an obvious nut-punch, but if you were in the stadium that night, it was actually an absolute blast. There was no escaping it. It absolutely poured for hours on end. We were wearing rain ponchos and it didn't matter. Just soaked to the core. You couldn't sit down because the benches were a puddle. By late 3rd quarter, everybody was dancing at every break and singing their hearts out and cheering wildly when the rain intensity would undoubtedly kick up again. It was a totally unique experience and an absolute blast -- until they sucked and lost. If that would've ended with a W, that would've been an all-timer. In my mind, at least.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Wasn't there but Mr. Brightside from that game is on You Tube. It did look really fun.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
I was there, too, and my shoes were wet for 4 days afterward.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
I was in attendance. Unbelievable atmosphere. Was in the student section singing Mr. Brightside.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Can second this. Was the most fun I had at any sporting event ever.
Until the loss obviously.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
This is 100% spot on. Even now, I am so conflicted about that game. Yes, the critical fumble as Michigan was driving early for what might have been in retrospect a decisive score. Yes, the frustrating interceptions.
But man, the second half was an incredibly fun atmosphere--one of my favorite times at the Big House in a weird way. It rained harder and then harder and then, when you thought it must inevitably subside, the skies seemed to open up even more. I remember not being able to fathom how the QB could even field a snap. Water was flowing down the aisles. The cheerleaders were jokingly (but almost literally) swimming on the field. The crowd intensity was crazy. It was insane and it was awesome.
Right up until M lost. Really would have been an epic memory had that last drive somehow won the game.
I imagine the experience watching on TV was... somewhat different.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Yes, can confirm. Watching it on TV caused uncontrollable drinking. Nothing was safe. I think I just passed out on my quest to find the rubbing alcohol.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Ugh, unfortunately that plays right into Wisconsin's hands. They want to run the ball, and they're comfortable doing that 70-80% of the time anyway. In a rainy kind of game, you largely have to mitigate or even abandon the passing game. So you're essentially taking away Michigan's biggest mismatch on offense.
Rain or shine, Wisconsin is more than happy to keep pounding the ball down their opponent's throat. But I don't know Taylor's skills as far as ball security goes, so if he manages to cough it up once or twice that can definitely make things interesting.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Not sure what weather site everyone else is using, but Accuweather is not showing anything greater than a 26% chance of rain from 11 AM - 4 PM.
11 AM - 7%
12 PM - 7%
1 PM - 11%
2 PM - 21%
3 PM - 21%
4 PM - 26%
Let's hope Accuweather is accurate. Zing!
September 20th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Are you looking at Madison's weather?
September 20th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
Weather channel says storms. 50-60% chance from 10 AM through really the rest of the day.
Edit - Weather channel is up to 80% now of Thunderstorms at noon and does not dip below 50% the rest of the day. I am unfortunately being serious when I say that they may have a difficult time getting this football game in tomorrow.
September 20th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
No. I figured I'd give everyone a few hours of weather forecast for Kabul, Afghanistan.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/madison/53715/hourly-weather-forecast/331530?day=1
September 20th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
Well there goes all my confidence in accuweather. It clearly shows Madison, WI weather for 9-21, but based on the other sources maybe it is for a different year.
Oh well who cares just win. Go Blue.
September 20th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
Don't trust those other sources. They don't have "accu" in their name. No way they can be as accurate.
September 20th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
Dude, the link you provided shows 57% chance of rain w/t-storms. It may have changed since your original quote, but it isn’t looking great!
September 20th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
That can't be Madison. NOAA has probability of rain 45% at kickoff increasing to 62% at 1pm. It is likely to rain and steady at times, but NOAA isn't forecasting thunderstorms. However, they are forecasting brisk winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 25. Temps will be warm (~72) so the weather should not be a huge factor unless the gusts are unpredictable and your passing game gets unlucky via timing.
September 21st, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
If I were a um fan I’d be praying for a downpour, I think it would be more beneficial for the weaker offense. But I’d definitely would shudder every time Patterson had the ball. Ball security wins in the rain.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
Of course that would happen during the Michigan game! Why wouldn’t it!
September 20th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
I know this isn't popular but I hate outdoor football cause of this right here. We wait all year for this game and now likely not going to be able to see the speed, quickness, passing game, kicking game due to the elements.
I want to be able to see the best athletes do athletic things and not be handcuffed. I'd prefer no one slip or slide but instead be able to cut on a dime etc....Give me an indoor game every day of the week where the game is played at the highest levels of speed, power and quickness.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
We had two games in perfect weather where we didn't really see the speed, quickness, or passing game.
September 20th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
Not talking about Michigan game I'm talking about any football game. This stuff means a lot and I hate fact the weather could impact the skill level of both teams
September 20th, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
Playing through the elements is also what makes this a man’s game. Many epic contests were made moreso by the inclement weather (i.e. the tuck rule game).
September 20th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
Even though we had to endure JOK at QB, the Snow Globe game get my vote for a great weather atmosphere.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Man I would love about a 4 hour delay right at the start I am busy and hate watching recorded games.
Couple that with trying to avoid score updates and I would love a 3:00 pm game
September 20th, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^
Strongly believe Shea will come out firing, with one of the first 5 plays being 25+ yards downfield, and Tarik/Nico getting touches early tomorrow. Lock and load
September 20th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
I wish I shared your optimism but we target them like what 3 times a game so far? One where they'll be wide open but Shea will overthrow it by a couple of yards?
September 20th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Science forbid we ever give Nico a fucking jump ball opportunity.
September 20th, 2019 at 12:52 PM ^
with 20-30 mph winds I find it hard to believe we come out firing and flinging the ball around the football field.
September 20th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
That was the plan for MTSU until #thefumble / #theinjury on the first play; we apparently shut it down after that
September 20th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
This seems to explain somewhat of the tension between "play calling" and "execution". I have seen many a post on this site saying it isn't Michigan's play calling that has contributed to a lack of a dynamic offense, but it is the execution of the plays called. What has to be noted, and this article hits on the topic, is that it has to be significantly more difficult to execute a play that the defense knows is coming.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
Agreed. However, I can count at least five plays through two games with great designs that were just not executed. All of the plays were designed to be big chunk scoring plays that would have gone the distance or close. That is how teams like Oklahoma etc. put up such gaudy scores, they hit on those big plays. Michigan has not really hit them yet, but they are in the offense now at least. It is just a matter of doing them right.
September 20th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
A lot of the 'execution' talk revolves around Shea giving the ball instead of keeping it. If there is no threat of a keep, the defense can sell out in whatever direction the RB goes. No amount of execution will fix that.
Shea needs to keep when the read says keep. Simple as that...
September 20th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
One can hope his lack of keeping was due to his injury and not wanting to get hit.
At this point I can't bring myself to believe Michigan will do anything good (against the tougher opponents anyway) until I actually see them do it.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:29 PM ^
It was due for the most part to giving being the correct read.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
And not drop the ball.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
It’s not just keep vs give but also give vs pass.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
Shea isn’t a great read option QB. Thus far a lot of the action is predetermined. He isn’t reading anything. When he has tried to ride the mesh point it hasn’t gone particularly well.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Last year the conventional wisdom was Shea was really good at the reads.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I feel like last year he was really good at the read option when it wasn't deployed as much, so I imagine his injury has played a role here. His fakes were downright filthy.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Agree, he had 2 really nice run lefts on keepers that I remember and I thought would be unleashed against OSU. The camera man was totally fooled. I believe he had one keeper early in that game for about 8 yards but I don't remember seeing it again.
September 20th, 2019 at 10:31 PM ^
I don't think you know what your looking at.