Kinda Draftageddon 2019: Quarterbacks & Running Backs
What the people want: This is our annual Big Ten preview series, in lieu of a preseason all-conference list or something. This year we're changing the format. We'll draft position-by-position, re-randomizing the order each series. You get a detailed rundown of the best players at each position in a predigested format. We get to butt our competitive heads against each other while toning up our in-conference knowledge brain muscles for the upcoming football season.
This week's positions: Quarterback and two running backs
Random.org draft order: Seth, Brian, Ace, BiSB
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QUARTERBACK
QB1: Shea Patterson, Michigan (Seth)
#1 with a bullet. [Bryan Fuller]
Are we going Heisman hunting this season? It's not out of the question, but a lot of that is about situation. For one, the offense is coming to him: Josh Gattis's version of the spread is a pass-first, use-the-QB's-legs thing heavily influenced by the systems that Trace McSorley and Tua Tagavailoa rode to uncanny numbers. Shea also has such an arsenal of targets this year that we ultimately were forced to share one with Iowa.
In raw efficiency, 2018 Patterson gave Michigan the best year at his position since the Denard/Gardner split.
The Michigan offense will have playmakers all over the field. pic.twitter.com/jPLwEovj9O
— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 17, 2019
The raw numbers don't match because the offense was doing too well on the ground to bother, the defense was squelching games into blowouts, and for the last chunk of the season scoring points was secondary to getting a starting quarterback to The Game in one piece for the first time since Forest Evashevski. Now the passing game will be asked to carry the team, at same moment all the pieces have fallen into place to maximize its efficiency. Plus, who's the next-best quarterback in the league?
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the quarterbacks and two rounds of running backs, with one guy cornering the market on Rutgers]
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QB2: Adrian Martinez, Nebraska (Brian)
There's something awfully familiar about all this. [Eric Upchurch]
Brian: Michigan fans remember Martinez running for his life and getting battered out of the game by halftime. When not doing this, Martinez put up 9.4, 7.7, 9.1, 8.1, and 6.8 YPA against Colorado, Purdue, Wisconsin, OSU, and Iowa. (MSU also clunked the Nebraska offense in a 9-6 Nebraska win you may remember laughing uproariously about.) He also put up over 800 rushing yards once you get rid of the 28 sacks Nebraska gave up.
That's a true freshman playing in a first-year Scott Frost offense, grading out well per PFF...
Adrian Martinez is primed to lead Nebraska all the way back. pic.twitter.com/Sj1XFfUDHB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 14, 2019
...and set to blow up in year two, especially if last year was as much of a year zero as it seemed for Frost.
Ace: Oh, wow, Nate Stanley is getting draft hype.
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QB3: Justin Fields, Ohio State (Ace)
We're guessing he figures it out. [Taylor Lehman/11Warriors]
“Five-star stepping into the OSU job” has to be a better bet than “draft gurus blindly choose senior Big Ten quarterback to hype.”
When Fields got stuck behind another NFL talent at Georgia in Jake Fromm, OSU was happy to jettison Tate Martell for a dual-threat QB with higher upside. When he got the opportunity to play, Fields displayed his potential. PFF:
One of two former Georgia Bulldogs mentioned on this list, Fields logged 173 snaps as a true freshman last season at UGA but transferred for greener pastures in Columbus after the departure of Dwayne Haskins to the NFL. Fields finished with an elite grade of 90.1, albeit on a small sample size, in the SEC, showcasing his ability mainly against lesser competition behind Jake Fromm. Still, he completed 70.0% of his passes and didn’t make any costly mistakes by way of interceptions in the passing game, showing he’s not just a runner, he’s a more-than-capable thrower.
Look, I’m not happy either, but here we are.
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QB4: Nate Stanley, Iowa (BiSB)
[Brian Ray/University of Iowa Athletics]
I mean, he's fine. Maybe even good. Third among returning starters in the Big Ten (behind Patterson and yards per attempt (behind Patterson and Martinez) and second in passing yards (behind Peyton Ramsey). Stanley has totaled 52 TDs and 16 INTs over the last two years, and he improved his completion rate to nearly 60% in 2018. But while some might call him a game manager, that term implies a certain level of consistency that Stanley lacks. He put up some absolute stinkbombs last year, including a virtuoso performance that basically cost Iowa the Penn State game (18/49, 205 yards, 4.2 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs).
Still, Stanley is the choice almost by default. Brian Lewerke has upside if he gets healthy, but is somewhat hampered by Michigan State's "offense." Hunter Johnson was a five-star out of high school, but is almost entirely unproven an is likewise hampered by Mick McCall. Elijah Sindelar has some upside in Jeff Brohm's offense, but is somewhat hampered by remaining Elijah Sindelar. Ramsey? Josh Jackson? Nah, Stanley isn't fantastic, but he's the only guy remaining whose floor sits above the inner core of the Earth.
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RUNNING BACKS
Seth: BISB, you get to lead off on running backs so, you know, take your time, overthink it some.
RB1: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (BiSB)
Is Wisconsin back. [Fuller]
No-brainer. Taylor rushed for 1,977 and 2,174 yards in his first two seasons. Last year, he averaged 7.15 yards per carry on 307 attempts, which is a better average than anyone with even half that many carries. He led the Big Ten with 61 carries of 10+ yards in each of the last two seasons; no one else reached 40 such carries in either season. Taylor has excellent feet, vision, and feel for running the ball, but is game is simple: get downhill until you hit something. then continue downhill.
You have three options when defending Taylor; you can (a) play your safeties close and try to gang tackle him somewhere near the line of scrimmage, and risk having him pop a big one if someone busts a run fit, (b) play back, get YAC'd to death, and hope your safeties can somehow hyena-trying-to-drop-an-elephant tackle the guy when he hits the open field, or (c) hope Wisconsin's offensive coaching staff somehow forgets about him for the entire second half of a close game. Michigan chose (c), which is good, because Taylor gave Michigan everything they could handle in the first half.
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RB2: Anthony McFarland, Maryland (Ace)
Poor damn Lorenzo Harrison. [11Warriors]
Admittedly less of a no-brainer. At this time last year, you’d think OSU’s JK Dobbins would be a lock for this spot, but he struggled to gain more than what his line gave him and was outperformed by Mike Weber, who went in the seventh round.
Meanwhile, Anthony McFarland mostly played behind sixth-rounder Ty Johnson last season, but when he got his opportunities he took full advantage. After being an explosive second option for most of the season, he became the go-to back late in the year with Johnson hurt, put up 210 yards on Indiana, and then nearly spearheaded a most unlikely upset with 298 yards on 21 carries against the Buckeyes—even when removing his touchdowns of 81 and 75 yards in that game, he put up 7.5 yards per carry.
While not the biggest back out there, McFarland has surprising power (averaged 3.9 yards after contact), and when he finds a seam he is gooooone:
While he may not average 7.9(!) yards per carry over a full season again, he’ll get a lot more carries this year, and he should be the focal point of the offense. Big plays should be bountiful. He’s already getting NFL Draft hype, too.
Built low to the ground and compact, McFarland oozes explosiveness and runs very hard, making him very hard to deal with in space. His speed and style alone give him an element of power that other air backs don’t. This package is very intriguing, and McFarland is absolutely a riser candidate.
Seth: He's also Booger McFarland's kid. Can we call him Boogie?
Ace: Only if he gets an elaborate contraption to use on the sideline.
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RB3: Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota (Brian)
[University of Minnesota Athletic Department]
Minnesota's running back depth is extremely irritating for this format, but the Gophers are bringing Ibrahim to Big Ten Media Days so I'm guessing he gets the lion's share of the work even though Minnesota returns both Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith off injuries.
Ibrahim did work last year, averaging 5.7 yards per carry despite missing the Indiana, Fresno State, and Miami (Not That Miami) games. He had 157 yards against Ohio State, and it wasn't because he had a single 80-yard run.
I recommend checking out the run at 3:00.
Ibrahim is a bruiser with a little wiggle and decent long speed--he reminds me a lot of Karan Higdon. And he was a true freshman last year playing in an offense with Zach Annexstad, freshman walk-on, starting at QB. That kind of production is bonkers. Also he gets to run behind Daniel Faalele this year.
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RB4 JK Dobbins, Ohio State (Seth)
We *wish* Dobbins became just a guy last year. [Patrick Barron]
The legal issues of Nebraska's Maurice Washington make this easy. Okay, JK dropped from 7.23 YPC and 1403 yards as a freshman to 4.58 YPC and 1,053 yards last year with a huge drop in highlight yards. But are we really concerned about JK Dobbins not getting highlight yards? What he did get are a lot more carries near the endzone, because he's the toughest little churner in the league. He also upped his receiving (263 yards, 7.7 YPT, 2 TDs) to true dual-threat territory.
I believe the context of his YPC drop-off wasn't that he forgot to run, but that Dwayne Haskins wasn't a runner. Since Fields is, since Weber cleared out, since Dobbins is the most proven weapon on Ryan Day's offense, and since nothing bad ever happens to Ohio State, I'll settle for version three of this dude:
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RB5: Reggie Corbin, Illinois (Seth)
Also in spread dudes: Reggie Corbin rushed for 1,085 yards, 9 TDs and 8.5 YPC with Illinois. Which is Illinois. And does Illinois things. They're replacing run threat grad transfer QB AJ Bush with pass threat grad transfer QB Brandon Peters, but the Illini have a pretty good OL and OC "Rich" Rod Smith is gonna Rich Rod.
The Big Ten put Corbin #20 among top returning players in the conference, one spot behind McFarland. He is an instant explosion, leading the nation with seven 50+ yard runs. He also also led the country in 60-yard runs, 70-yard runs, and 80-yard runs because Illinois has nothing besides Corbin going for it.
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RB6: Is Furious Northwestern's Superback Retired (Brian)
Brian: wait did Seth take an Illinois?
Seth: Illinois was 9th in Rushing S&P+ last year. NINTH!
Brian: How many rushing yards do you need to qualify as a running back?
BiSB: Cam Green did have a carry last year. So technically he could have been a "running back." With a -4.0 YPC average.
Seth: Take Raheem Blackshear. Stealing Rutgers running backs works for everyone else.
Brian: RONDALE MOORE, PURDUE
Seth: You can't do that.
Brian: 21 carries, 10 YPA. I think the kid breaks out this year.
BiSB: As the guy with the #1 pick in the receivers category, DAMN YOU.
Seth: This is Draftageddon not nam.
Brian: MICHAEL VICK, VIRGINIA TECH
Seth: Take the Rutger!!!!
BiSB: Bold move with Venric Mark still on the board.
Brian: I am registering my disappointment at this format. How is one supposed to Heiko?
Seth: Complaining about Draftageddon. That's never happened on MGoBlog before.
Brian: I cannot take Brian Lewerke and put him at right tackle. HINT, HINT MSU
Seth: You can, but you have to use his alias "Cole Chewins."
BiSB: How many PB&J sandwiches can Lewerke eat before August 30?
Brian: Anyway, fine.
RB6: Tru Wilson, Michigan (Brian)
You made it. [Patrick Barron]
Pass pro is the most underrated RB skill. I've already got the guy I want to give the ball to all the time so now I'll grab the bar-none best pass protector at the position in the universe. Oblig:
This is GD beautiful.
— Due# (@JDue51) October 7, 2018
Tru Wilson is a bulldog.
He picks up the blitz to free Shea, then goes and pancakes a D Lineman, *then* gets up and looks for more.
That's winning the play, friends. pic.twitter.com/hxN3DgybXd
Also:
Effective blocks on the edge.
— Due# (@JDue51) December 30, 2018
Ruiz mauls. Stueber stalemates.
Excellent burst by Christian Turner.
and that's Tru Wilson setting a block at the 5. He started the play 8 yards behind the LOS.
need more of that effort from everyone. pic.twitter.com/wbhzdWC4Dp
Wilson also rushed for 364 yards at 5.9 a pop a year ago and has seen the depth chart empty out in front of him with Higdon leaving early and Chris Evans having some Issues. He's got competition from Charbonnet and Turner; I have a hard time believing either is going to dent the playing time for a guy who the coaches certainly adore.
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BiSB: Is the next category just "receivers," or what? I can start pre-writing. Or are we re-ordering every week?
Seth: I originally said we are going to do two rounds of regular receivers and then slot receivers because so many teams make that designation now. Ditto TE.
Brian: No! If I want to take Rondale Moore and make him a potato it is my right!
BiSB: How does one differentiate slot and receiver and TE anymore?
Seth: I guess we can decide that next week. But first Ace needs to complete his acquisition of the entire Maryland backfield.
Brian: We should make this an auction.
The Mathlete: Now that's an idea.
Seth: Readers: Please give us the most succinct rundown of who's good in this conference. MGoBlog: Let's make our most convoluted content into the Cones of Dunshire!
BiSB: Say what you want about Northwestern, but they produce some fine Ledgermen.
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RB7: Ricky Slade, Penn State (Ace)
A third-down back is nice. I’ll go with the five-star sophomore who spent his freshman year backing up a heavily used second-rounder. Let’s see what they were saying out of high school:
Slade is a special football player. He has great speed and quickness. Slade shows good vision and instincts. He runs with great balance and is very elusive. Slade also really understands how to attack defenses and has a high football I.Q. Overall, there’s not much he doesn’t do at an extremely high level. He is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country. -- Michael Clark
Sounds good.
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RB8: Raheem Blackshear, Rutgers (BiSB)
[Patrick Barron]
As the resident Rutgers stan, I am obligated to take at least one Scarlet Knight. And -- spoiler alert -- there will not be many opportunities to do so later in this event. Blackshear is your modern multi-purpose offensive weapon; he led Rutgers in carries ( 143) AND receptions (44). Some of those receptions came out of the backfield, but he frequently lined up in the slot. His numbers weren't great, but as you can imagine, he was doing most of the work without a lot of help:
I hate this. I hate this like I haven’t hated anything for years. I hate this like I was born to hate this. pic.twitter.com/5uxTpnpLgV
— Andy Khouri (@andykhouri) July 16, 2019
BiSB: So, what do we do now?
Seth: I think we make fun of you for tying yourself to the Rutgers offense for a while.
BiSB: Remember: I am freeing someone from the Rutgers Offense of Kicking Boulders and allowing him to join my team of Not Rutgers.
Alex: Oh man, look at this guy — willingly infected his team with Rutgers. Hate to see it.
Seth: Double Rutgers even.
BiSB: Rutgers is bad at damn near everything. But the only reason we have to say "almost" is that they are really good at scouting running backs. I know you all know this already, but Saquon Barkley and Stevie Scott were also Rutgers decommits. And, truth be told, Isiah Pacheco looked pretty functional last year.
Seth: I only saw one run of his. Are you saying there's no shame if he burns your heir apparent safety?
BiSB: There... there are levels of shame. A Rutgers running back burns you: some shame. Get beaten over the top by Artur Sitkowski: buddy, we need to talk.
Seth: We should honorably mention Stevie Scott, because he almost got to five yards per carry with Mike DeBord trying to impersonate Ryan Day with MSU's offensive line. And looked like a ball of knives in the process.
BiSB: YMRMFSPA Justin Jackson
Ace: Let’s just say I’m, uh, surprised Tru Wilson went off the board. Though having read the RBs section of HTTV maybe I should not be. But I was considering two Michigan backs and he was not one of them.
BiSB: Brian got two running backs who may not lead their respective teams in carries, even if they stay healthy. Impressive.
Seth: McFarland is going to have to share too, though not enough I think it matters for this exercise. Lorenzo Harrison got a medical redshirt last year so he's back, though with McFarland plus Javon "9.1 YPC and 7 TDs on 34 carries while being 6'0"/210" Leake, and a switch to a less scat-friendly offense somehow the carries outlook got more bleak after the graduation of longtime backmate Ty Johnson. Anyway we're all going to be so mad we skipped whichever back emerges from the pile of 30 Scott Frost is considering.
Wow. As one of the more outspoken Draftegeddon critics I can honestly say I actually like, and more importantly, UNDERSTAND, this format. Thanks a ton for making the change.
It's way easier for my 60 yr old brain to process that Seth thinks Shea Patterson is the best QB in the B1G and BiSB thinks Nate Stanley is the 4th best (no Brian Lewerke - insert eye emoji) than it is to try and comprehend that somebody thought the left guard for Illinois was more valuable than the safety from Indiana. That old format made almost no sense to me and that's why I didnt like it at ALL.
This makes sense to me. This I understand.
Thank you.
100% agree this is sooooooo much better. Looks like I have to retire my annual “Draftageddon’s Cognitively Fragmented Format is Making Me Angry and Dumber” post.
I chalk this up as a win for the Ann Arbor Pitchfork and Torch society. Power to the People!
why no Heisman hype for Lewerke?
Cosign x a million. I did not like Draftageddon. And there was SO MUCH OF IT.
5.4 Yards per pass attempt in conference play. That's worse than John O'Korn's ill-fated season.
So, to answer your question, #disrespekt.
My only gripe has nothing to do with the format which I agree is much improved. Brian... Tru Wilson? Seriously? We aren't even sure he'll start at the BEGINNING of the season, let alone all the way through. I'd take a 100 percent bet to start with Stevie Scott all day over that. The fact that Mike Hart is his position coach and that he averaged 5 yards per carry last year as a TRUE FRESHMAN is icing on the cake! Mike DeBord be damned.
That, and there was no good way to judge draftageddons past. I mean, it's not like you could have made fantasy teams and done fantasy football. (I mean, how do you give points to OLs?) Plus, fantasy football isn't the best for judging talent evaluation.
This format even makes sense for an end of season follow up. Writing by formula:
- Position
- Draftageddon order
- Post-season all-americans/all-conference players
- Commentary complete with pointing and laughing. (You picked that guy? That guy was...
Excited for more football content, even if it is Draftageddon.
Oh look. It's Draftageddon, my favorite feature. Just what I wanted!
lol was this made just for this occasion?
NOOOOOOOooooooooo...ooo...
Draftageddon in GIF format
Unquestionably the best format for this we've ever seen. Read the whole thing, made good sense, still apparently interesting enough for the authors to engage them.
I'm actually looking forward to the next installment?
I enjoyed this! I also enjoy this time of year - because no matter how angsty or emo Brian gets when we lose to Ohio State, he's always recovered by July to get way overhyped about certain Michigan players.
I don't remember Draftageddon UNDERrating OSU though. And that's what the problem has been.
I'll admit that I kinda liked Draftegeddon before. This is a huge improvement in format though.
I've always liked Draftageddon, there I said it.
I came here to say 'NOOOOooooooo'... But after perusing some comments, I'll have to actually give it a try before commenting.
EEK - Its Draftageddon again.
Love this. Thank you.
I enjoyed this. Please keep this format.
Ill need the Michael Jackson popcorn gif and if possible a Rock smelling said popcorn gif. Thank you in advance.
This was a good take on Draftageddon. Thumbs up.
Anthony McFarland is not Booger McFarland's son.
Yeah - I'd guess it is an "inside joke." Those tend to get interjected into these sort of pieces.
He's NOT? Oh Shit! I was informed he was, took it for gospel, and put it in HTTV.
1. Tru Wilson is a Dude.
2. Draftageddon still kinda sucks. But it's football.
I like this so much better than the old format. Keep up the good work gentlemen.
I like the format of a guy making a pick and explaining it. When it turns into a transcript of a conversation it quickly devolves into 4 people trying to make the best joke.
the format is way better for comparing players. The snark and jabs at each other is a total distraction.
I will believe Justin Fields is going to "figure it out" when I see it. For all the "he looked good in limited play", in the last half of the year he threw the ball 14 times, completing 9 of them for...128 yards, 121 of which came against UMass. Yes he was a true freshman and yes guys can figure it out, but it's going to be a different offense from the one he learned at Georgia, and we don't really have an idea of how OSU will be post-Meyer; they were fine with Day for those first 3 games, but they didn't face anyone particularly good and their defense still had the yips. If this was Meyer at the helm I'd assume the best for him, but UGa sorta wanted Fields to beat out Fromm and the fact he didn't come close shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
And more generally, I think PFF has some value in analyzing college games, but one of the things that I've always been annoyed with them is how they make small sample size big and then process it through their homegrown vernacular to make it seem more illustrative. Like, they trot out "big-time throws" as if it's some time-honored piece of objective analysis and not, well, subjective hyperbole turned up to 11. Martinez is a good QB but I've seen enough football to question if a guy might have just hit his ceiling in an offense that will absolutely showcase his abilities but may might have still tapped him out. In other words, I wouldn't be shocked if Martinez's numbers were incrementally better next year but not demonstrably better because Nebraska as a team isn't going to magically be much better than they were this year and the Big 10 didn't suddenly get a ton worse.
I think PFF has two issues, one that isn't fixable and one that could be. The first is that they don't know how guys are coached. A "bad" decision on one coaching staff might be acceptable on another. The perfect throw into double coverage isn't very good if the decision misses the wide open guy standing in the end zone for a TD. I've read the methodology and I don't see how this is accounted for or even could be accounted for. A few years ago the Chargers' staff tried to grade a bunch of guys, as a staff, in the off-season for free agency purposes. They gave up because of this exact issue. They couldn't determine if what they saw on film was necessarily right or wrong.
The second is that, in the case of good teams, what QBs do against the dregs of the schedule is all but irrelevant. 18-27 for 260 and 3 TDs against Rutgers could probably have been done by 50+ QBs around the country including the Michigan backup. What you want to know is how they do against good defenses, in close games, and on 3rd downs / 2 minute situations when they are forced to throw. That is much more valuable information.
What does Top Billin' think of Draftageddon?!
One thing I wouldn't mind seeing at the end of each piece is a consensus ranking 1-14 (or however many you'd need depending on position), just as sort of an add on to the discussion of the top kids at each spot. Love the new format though.
McFarland looks eerily like Denard when he runs. Dreads, dilithium, and all.
for srs!
I like this format, Draftageddon with order. This is readable and fun. (I used to just skip the chaos version.)
In other news, we don't see Martinez and Nebraska until 2021 in Lincoln unless we both make the B1G championship game before then. He should be scary good by then.
Wilson also rushed for 364 yards at 5.9 a pop a year ago and has seen the depth chart empty out in front of him with Higdon leaving early and Chris Evans having some Issues.
Higdon was a senior last season. He played sparingly in 2015 as a freshman (like, 11 carries for 19 yards sparingly).
Thank you for allowing me to appease my anal need to be correct.
Hooray, it's draftageddon time! ?
Actually, anything that gets Bisb back here is worth it.
or maybe its just stockholm syndrome?
Tru Wilson seems like a little stretch at the RB spot that early, have to imagine there are better ones out there in the B1G
Getting closer.
October 10th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Wow, this has certainly not aged well....
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