Michigan is a -3.5 favorite vs Ohio St
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/michigan-ohio-state-betting-odds-line-spread-2018
Michigan is 6-5 against the spread this season.
On a random side note tidbit, weather.com has the forecast for the weather in Columbus, OH on Saturday to be a high of 51 and a 50% chance of rain that day.
November 18th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
Is someone now supposed to say that is too high?
November 18th, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
Seems high, only saying this because that's what we said about, nebraska, Wisconsin, and Penn St. Here's to hoping for a similar result!
November 18th, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^
Yes, for luck.
However, according to the betting market, it was a half point too low. Spread already moved to 4.
November 18th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
I think it moves to 6.5 by Saturday. Smart money will be on Michigan.
November 18th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
Just win the game. Turn the tide. Restore order!
Go Blue!
November 18th, 2018 at 6:58 PM ^
Revenge the Tour!
November 18th, 2018 at 5:59 PM ^
Seems about right. Will be interesting to see what direction that takes.
And may I say “Wow” a favorite in Columbus.
November 18th, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
Well earned. That almost never happens.
I don't mean Michigan being favored in Columbus. I mean any team being favored there.
November 18th, 2018 at 10:31 PM ^
First time since 2004. Literally the only time we've had a better team than them going into the game since then besides 2011. Really amazing to think about.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
I know I'm feeling better about this game than in years past when I actually WANT it to be close to ideal weather conditions. In past years, I have hoped for blizzards, monsoons -- you name it. Not so much now.
Let's hope that this rain holds off, or is very light.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:04 PM ^
As much as I think rain hurts them more than us, we always seem to come out on the bad side of it when we are the better team in cruddy weather.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^
I think the rain/poor weather always hurts the better team because it randomizes the outcome more than a normal game. And for the first time in over a decade, the better team is clearly Michigan.
November 18th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
I mean, yeah, but we're only a little bit better. I feel like that is outweighed by the fact that they need to pass for 300 yards to succeed. Plus the thing it most effects -- passing offense -- is probably the one spot in their favor.
So rain away, I think.
November 18th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
Not sure how much rain would affect their passing game, since it’s so short-distance.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^
I see what you’re saying, but I think rain would hurt OSU more than us. Rain affects a team’s ability to pass consistently, which is OSU’s strength this season. And their run game is much worse this year than in year’s past. Not that it’s terrible, but just much less lethal.
In a rainstorm, where both teams have to resort to their run game to move the ball, I think that suits Michigan better than OSU. Just have to take care of the ball.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
Their offense is stastically a lot better than ours, especially through the air. Weather that would make throwing the ball difficult supports us
November 18th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
Their offense is only a lot better than Michigan’s if you’re looking at raw numbers. Fancystats like Michigan’s offense aplenty.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
Their offense is only a lot better than Michigan’s if you’re looking at raw numbers. Fancystats like Michigan’s offense aplenty.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:47 PM ^
Why wouldn't we want the rain? OSU passes like crazy whereas we're a run first team. Rain hurts OSU far more than it'll hurt us.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
Nope. We can't have nice things. BPONE rules all.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
I would say they are baiting people into betting on OSU.
The question remain - is encouraging bets on a team that has won 17/18 in a rivalry a great idea?
We will see Saturday.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
I like it. This indeed bodes well from a Vegas perspective anyhow.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:10 PM ^
15/17
November 18th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^
Massey has Michigan -4. Sagarin has Michigan -0.5 or so. FPI looks like Michigan -2.
I'd say the spread feels about right. They're certainly not "baiting" people into taking OSU. They may not have much of a defense, but that offense is legitimate. It'll be the toughest test of the season for the defense, ND included.
November 18th, 2018 at 9:32 PM ^
I'll throw in, S&P+ has Michigan by 4.5
November 18th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
Rain might actually help us in this game. Their run game is shit and their defense sucks. Haskins is their only chance.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
a reasonable line considering we haven't won there in 18 years.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:26 PM ^
Does history that doesn't actually affect the upcoming game have any impact on betting lines? Legitimate question as I know very little about gambling. Also known as nothing at all.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^
Not really, no.
Oddsmakers walk a tight line between the public and professional sports bettors, known as "sharps." The public bets on emotion and would absolutely take the past into account; the sharps bet on logic / computer models / etc., and would not.
So, suppose the oddsmakers' best guess was that Michigan would win by 7. If they then set the line at OSU +3.5, hoping that the public would accept a discount price on OSU due to history, they risk getting hammered by the sharps betting Michigan -3.5. And while there are a lot more members of the public than there are sharps, the sharps often represent more of the take on a dollar basis (larger average bets).
So, if the line opened at -3.5, the most likely reason is that the models the oddsmakers use show that Michigan is between a 3 and 5 point favorite. (I added a point to the upper range to account for Chase Winovich's injury status -- they might have dropped a point off of the line due to uncertainty there).
November 18th, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^
The 2018 Michigan team hasn’t played in Columbus. Some guys were on the 2016 team that played there, but that was not this team.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:40 PM ^
But all our players have taken a shit in a toilet before, so they'll be familiar with the layout of the stadium.
November 18th, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^
Underrated reply.
November 18th, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^
Nuh uh you don't know that
November 18th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^
Meditate
November 18th, 2018 at 9:37 PM ^
not me -- I meditate and make it go away.
/state farm
November 18th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^
I'm wondering how much rain would affect the game. The best part of OSU's offense has been their passing game. I trust our run game more than their's, and so I believe a rainy day could be advantageous for us. It would hinder the best part of their offense and leave them with little else to fall back on.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
Smooth Jimmy just cackled with knowing glee!
November 18th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
The only hurdle for Michigan in this game is the mental hurdle. They are the better TEAM. They have the better defense. They have everything, including momentum. Quite honestly, I actually believe they have the best coaching staff. Just got to get past from thinking they can win to knowing they can win.
I believe everything this team has gone through for 4 years has prepared them for Saturday. This is the first game since Harbaugh has arrived I feel Michigan has the better team. Every other year it seemed Michigan was deficient in one phase of the game. Whether it was QB, Offensive Line, Youth or position coaching, I really believe this years team has every phase of game covered. I wasn't sure about field goal kicking until yesterday and now I believe that is covered as well.
It has been long enough that the football gods have made Michigan suffer.
Michigan wins 34 27 GO BLUE
November 18th, 2018 at 6:37 PM ^
Agreed. We are the better team on paper but getting over the mental hurdle is still a sizeable hurdle. If it doesn't happen this week, it's going to be another rough off season. Would be pretty brutal to have our two best teams since Carr both lose in the shoe.
November 19th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
We are better in reality not on paper. Look at mutual opponents.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:08 PM ^
We were better in 2016 too - just much less healthy.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^
Absolutely right. M is definitely the better team on paper. These kids just need to head in there believing they are the better team and that they WILL win. Don’t be intimidated by all the OSU mystique. This is OUR time, OUR turn. Go Blue!
November 18th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
Haskins is terrible once he takes a big hit, very prone to happy feet and overthrows once he gets nervous. Bring the blitz early.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
That's beautiful. Rain will hurt their passing game.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:30 PM ^
When was the last time Michigan was favored to win in Cbus? Early 2000’s? 90’s? Too long.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
Probably 2004. Yet another game Michigan should have won against them.
November 18th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
2004 OSU changed quarterbacks midseason (from Justin Zwick to Troy Smith) and then played like a top 10 team after that. This is quite different.
November 18th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^
2004. First time UM has been favored period since 2011.
November 18th, 2018 at 6:39 PM ^
Don't like the fact Urban will get to play the underdog role.
Not even sure when the last time OSU was an underdog...Bama in 2015?