Lines for Next Weekend
I know we are off, but still some interesting games next weekend. Vis-a-vis our next opponent, PSU at home is favored by 5 over Iowa, which seems about right to me. But I would not be shocked to see Iowa win a close one. I think Franklin is falling apart. If he does, that team could lay down in Ann Arbor in two weeks. Fingers crossed, but we could coast in to the last weekend with plenty of time to get players healthy and get younger players reps.
The line that shocked me the most was Purdue-MSU. After yesterday, where MSU's offensive unit was revealed to be held together by used chewing gum and duct tape and snot, and with them likely without Lewerke (and definitely without Davis), MSU is actually favored by 1 point over Purdue. The line has moved to -2 MSU already, in fact. Good lord, what does that say about Ohio State? Am I crazy, or do they think Purdue's performance was solely because they were at home and OSU was "off"? I wouldn't put $5 on MSU, personally.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^
With Purdue's passing game and MSU's secondary, I'm really surprised the Boilers aren't favored. Purdue is a pretty good team. Can't say the same about Sparty.
October 22nd, 2018 at 9:40 AM ^
Let down game could be next for Purdue after their big win last week, and sparty will be fueled by disrespekt rage.
I think Purdue is the better team, but I could see MSU pulling it out considering the mindset of both teams.
October 22nd, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
Eh, I don't know. Purdue is averaging 39 points per game in conference play. Sparty better hold them below 20 if they want any chance at winning. Sparty put up 7, 21, and 19 in their past three games. Now they're missing their best offensive player. Could they win? Of course, but I think Purdue has to be the favorite.
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
I'm pulling for Sparty now that Marcus Ray says Purdue is the best team in the conference.
Edit: Marcus Ray just got Spath to say "shit" on the air. They didn't dump it.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:11 PM ^
I think Lewerke will play. I don’t think he was hurt, I just think that his receivers could not get open and he was chucking the ball because he knew he was going to get smashed if he didn’t. He had one really poor pass to Williams open on a slant, but aside from that he just had nowhere to go with the ball. If he was hurt I think it happened during the game, not before. Uche did drive him into the ground pretty hard on that first sack. I thought MSU would play Penn State tough and maybe win. I thought they would be pesky against us. After yesterday, I think they will be in a free fall. I got Purdue by a ten spot, in front of about 30,000 people.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^
There are several conflicting reports about Lewerke - Matt Charboneau, for example, seems to indicate that Lewerke was fine during the few option plays that MSU ran but hurt otherwise, or at least this is the case if I understand him correctly. I am not sure how this is possible, but the beat writers are trying to excuse it as best they can at this point.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
Even MSU's coaching staff can't keep their story straight on Lewerke. Dantonio said didn't practice, while Warner said he was fine and did practice. I hope someone asks about that at his next press conference.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:36 PM ^
Exactly!
Reeks of BS. Dantonio claiming he was hurt all week after the game yet Warner says he did practice and Lewerke gave a weird non answer. I'm sure he was fine. He had no one to throw the ball to, and no time even if he did.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:31 PM ^
I can't wait to find out how the story will change tomorrow. Turns out Lewerki wasn't hurt....just sick....with polio.
Spartans sick with dignity.
October 22nd, 2018 at 1:18 AM ^
He probably got dinged up in-game and they're just trying to cover it up, because cover up is what they do.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
I think that Wisconsin giving NW 5 1/2 in Evanston is interesting...I thnk that Wisconsin will win by more and NW will save their chaos for Notre Dame
October 21st, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^
The fancy stats really dislike NW. I think they're #69 (nice) on S&P.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:16 PM ^
Iowa / PSU (-5)
Wisconsin (-6) / NW
Purdue (+2) / MSU
is how I will bet the week, though the Iowa line is intriguing.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^
MSU’s defense was not nearly as vulnerable as I expected. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them win a clunker
October 21st, 2018 at 8:50 PM ^
We didn’t really test their back 7 to the same degree that Purdue will.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
Michigan put up 400 yards of offense on Michigan State's defense, on a wet, sloppy afternoon.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
True, but it helped that MSU only gained as many 1st downs as they had punts. Their defense got worn down. It took 15 possessions to gain those 400 yards.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
I said Purdue was going to beat MSU before the season, before I thought Purdue could beat Ohio State. They just match up really well against MSU.
Yesterday, Purdue was just the better team on that football field. I think they go in and pants MSU next weekend by a few scores, maybe 31-14. I think MSU might fall off a cliff here.
Iowa will win if they throw the ball fewer than 20 times. If they run, and run, and run, and then hit Fant on PA, and then run some more, Penn State won't stop them. If they try to be cute and make it a shootout, they will lost.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
Franklin sucks, badly. If there’s a way to lose he will figure it out.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:49 PM ^
Plus Iowa is legitimately good with a good defense. Penn State better hold Iowa to under 20 to win this one.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
I hope they’re good enough to win the west. They deserve a spot on our revenge tour.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^
Oooh yeah that's good
October 21st, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
80 year old couple in my church are PSU alumni and they question Franklin’s play calling every week. Today I spoke with the guy and he was baffled by Franklin calling three straight passing plays at the end of the game (all incomplete) when they just had to run out the clock.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^
His idiocy is the only reason Indiana had a chance at the end. The three straight pass plays, and then calling the timeout before the onsides for some reason, and IU's kicker really mis-hit that one, and then IU kicks it again and they actually get it lol.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^
Michigan seized all of Sharty's goodies..don't think there's anything left for Purdue to find in their cupboards
October 21st, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^
Hockenson might be better than Fant.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:05 PM ^
Hockenson, yeah that's the other one I was blanking on
October 21st, 2018 at 8:29 PM ^
What's the line for whether MSU does the 100 yard march on time against Purdue?
October 21st, 2018 at 8:34 PM ^
If they don’t, Purdue’s roided out DC will kill one of them.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
Nick Holt!
October 21st, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^
That's Steve.
Steve Holt!
October 21st, 2018 at 11:17 PM ^
lmao i literally laughed out loud at that comment, JPC.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^
Rooting for PSU, Wisconsin, and MSU. We need the teams that we have or will beat to do well to bolster our strength of schedule. I wouldn't normally give a fuck but it may factor in our playoff chances
October 21st, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^
No need. If Michigan goes undefeated we’re in. If we drop another one, we’re out. Nothing anyone else does will change that.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:22 PM ^
Good point. In that case I’m rooting for Iowa, NW and Purdue.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:43 PM ^
There has to be some world where the committee chooses 12-1 conference champ Oklahoma over 12-1 conference champ Michigan right? Not saying it's likely, but it's definitely a possible outcome here.
Assume Bama, Clemson are 13-0 conference champs and ND is 12-0.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
I really can't see it. Michigan is really the perfect one loss team. Lost a night opener by one score to an undefeated CFP team, then runs the table on supposedly one of the hardest schedules in the country. Michigan brand. Harbaugh's first CFP.
It's unbeatable.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
Can't see a one loss Oklahoma beating out a one-loss Michigan based on overall schedule strength and the quality of the loss..
October 21st, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^
Our playoff chances are simple: Win out and we're in. Don't, and we're not.
Also, I think it would be good for the conference to have Iowa win out in the regular season and make the conference championship. That way the B1G championship is between top 10 teams, instead of the West sending in what looks like a sacrificial lamb that the East winner gets no credit for beating. If Iowa goes 11-1 and Michigan knocks them off, we would have wins over 10-2 OSU, 11-2 Iowa, 9-3 Wisconsin (they would have to lose one more in this scenario, probably to PSU), and Penn State, all of whom would likely be in the top 20. That could be enough to bump us ahead of an undefeated ND team, since they might only have one win over a ranked team, and that at home and at night. It would be pretty controversial, but Florida State was ranked 3rd in 2014 as an undefeated team behind two 1-loss teams, so it's not unprecedented. We don't get that kind of bump from beating Wisconsin again.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
How can you cheer for Dantonio? I don't see how MSU helps us. If we win out we will sneak in. One more loss and we will miss out, but make a nice bowl.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^
We don't sneak in if we win out. If we win out, we kick the fucking door down and charge in. If Michigan does win out, God help the team they play in the opening round..
October 21st, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^
Lewerke will play. He wasn't hurt. Dantonio was just throwing out excuses.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
his arm is tired from throwing the ball into the turf 7 weeks in a row
October 21st, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
Bro, that shit is serious. He has turf arm.
October 21st, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^
Warner said he was fine all week. Dantonio then said he didn't practice three days. Then someone on RCMB said they saw video last week of Lewerke practicing one of those days. So, Dantonio is apparently lying to try and protect Lewerke from criticism, or maybe to make an excuse for their loss or Warner's horrible play-calling? Or maybe he's just lying. After all, this was a guy who said "BS" when asked if he was walking 5 yards behind the "Spartan Wall" smiling when they ran in to Michigan players. He clearly was...
October 21st, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^
Mork has been known to lie a little! He is a POS!
October 21st, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
Iowa and ALL the points. Hawkeyes win that game by 10.
October 21st, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^
I would have guessed MSU -3
October 21st, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^
We've come a long way. Remember in 2008, when we were getting points vs. The Bye Week?