Fall Roster Overanalysis
EVENT REMINDER:
FOOTBALL EVE 2018, hosted by Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending, will be at 6:00 PM on Thursday, August 30, at 327 E. Hoover, Ann Arbor—the same place as last year. There will be Scratch BBQ and Catering. There will be beer. There will be "OMIGOD COLLEGE FOOTBALL" on TV.
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Don't look too closely at the video or the new weights or you'll realize you're being a little bit lied to. Doesn't matter, we've got PHONEBOOKS so let's OVERANALYZE them as is TRADITION around these PARTS! Steve?
Can I help?
Yes.
Chart?
Yes.
WEIGHT GAIN 2000 AND 18 THOUSAND!
We had something new this spring: an incoming freshman roster. That seemed to be coming from the players themselves since they didn't match any of the services. Anyway we have that to compare with the new bodies. The rules:
- All weight gain is muscle
- All weight lost was excess fat
- No change means the player replaced excess fat with more muscle.
QUARTERBACK | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Shea Patterson | 200 | 203 | 205 | +3 | +2 | ||||
Brandon Peters | 216 | 220 | 230 | +4 | +10 | ||||
Dylan McCaffrey | 199 | 217 | +18 | ||||||
Joe Milton | 220 | 234 | +14 | ||||||
RUNNING BACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Karan Higdon | 190 | 189 | 190 | 202 | -1 | +1 | +12 | ||
Chris Evans | 200 | 206 | 216 | +6 | +10 | ||||
Tru Wilson | 190 | 200 | 202 | +10 | +2 | ||||
O'Maury Samuels | 192 | 205 | +13 | ||||||
Kurt Taylor | 194 | 195 | +1 | ||||||
Christian Turner | 185 | 200 | +15 | ||||||
Hassan Haskins | 207 | 212 | +5 | ||||||
Michael Barrett | 215 | 224 | +9 | ||||||
FULLBACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Jared Wangler | 219 | 230 | 229 | 240 | 240 | +11 | -1 | +11 | - |
Ben Mason | 251 | 254 | +3 | ||||||
Ben VanSumeren | 232 | 236 | +4 | ||||||
SLOT RECEIVER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Grant Perry | 185 | 196 | 191 | 195 | +11 | -5 | +4 | ||
Eddie McDoom | 180 | 181 | 187 | +1 | +6 | ||||
Nate Schoenle | 185 | 192 | 202 | +7 | +10 | ||||
Oliver Martin | 198 | 200 | +2 | ||||||
WIDE RECEIVER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Donovan Peoples-Jones | 199 | 208 | +9 | ||||||
Tarik Black | 206 | 215 | +9 | ||||||
Nico Collins | 206 | 218 | +12 | ||||||
Ronnie Bell | 174 | 182 | +8 | ||||||
TIGHT END | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Zach Gentry | 230 | 244 | 248 | 262 | +14 | +4 | +14 | ||
Nick Eubanks | 236 | 240 | 252 | +4 | +12 | ||||
Sean McKeon | 240 | 248 | 251 | +8 | +3 | ||||
Ryan Hayes | 262 | 271 | +9 | ||||||
Luke Schoonmaker | 229 | 231 | +2 | ||||||
Mustapha Muhammad | 244 | 245 | +1 | ||||||
OFFENSIVE TACKLE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Juwann Bushell-Beatty | 319 | 319 | 311 | 315 | 318 | - | -8 | +4 | +3 |
Grant Newsome | 280 | 318 | 314 | 318 | +38 | -4 | +4 | ||
Nolan Ulizio | 293 | 291 | 295 | 305 | -2 | +4 | +10 | ||
Jon Runyan Jr. | 275 | 304 | 298 | 310 | +29 | -6 | +12 | ||
James Hudson | 302 | 301 | -1 | ||||||
Andrew Stueber | 314 | 323 | +9 | ||||||
Jalen Mayfield | 275 | 296 | +21 | ||||||
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Stephen Spanellis | 335 | 307 | 300 | -28 | -7 | ||||
Ben Bredeson | 310 | 308 | 320 | -2 | +12 | ||||
Michael Onwenu | 350 | 350 | 350 | - | - | ||||
Andrew Vastardis | 305 | 311 | 317 | +6 | +6 | ||||
Cesar Ruiz | 316 | 319 | +3 | ||||||
Joel Honigford | 275 | 295 | +20 | ||||||
Chuck Filiaga | 345 | 341 | -4 | ||||||
Phillip Paea | 275 | 296 | +21 | ||||||
DEFENSIVE TACKLE | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Bryan Mone | 312 | 325 | 310 | 325 | 335 | +13 | -15 | +15 | +10 |
Lawrence Marshall | 241 | 238 | 268 | 285 | 285 | -3 | +30 | +17 | - |
Michael Dwumfour | 300 | 290 | 285 | -10 | -5 | ||||
Aubrey Solomon | 297 | 287 | -10 | ||||||
Deron Irving-Bey | 274 | 294 | +20 | ||||||
Donovan Jeter | 288 | 308 | +20 | ||||||
DEFENSIVE END | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Chase Winovich | 220 | 230 | 245 | 253 | 255 | +10 | +18 | +8 | +2 |
Reuben Jones | 225 | 222 | 245 | 250 | +3 | +23 | +5 | ||
Rashan Gary | 287 | 281 | 283 | -6 | +2 | ||||
Ron Johnson | 245 | 264 | 267 | +19 | +3 | ||||
Carlo Kemp | 255 | 264 | 280 | +9 | +16 | ||||
Luiji Vilain | 242 | 255 | +13 | ||||||
Kwity Paye | 241 | 260 | +19 | ||||||
Taylor Upshaw | 240 | 246 | +6 | ||||||
Aidan Hutchinson | 258 | 268 | +10 | ||||||
Julius Welschof | 253 | 253 | - | ||||||
LINEBACKER | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Noah Furbush | 210 | 217 | 238 | 240 | 237 | +7 | +21 | +2 | -3 |
Josh Uche | 217 | 226 | 238 | +9 | +12 | ||||
Devin Bush | 232 | 222 | 233 | -10 | +11 | ||||
Devin Gil | 230 | 220 | 231 | -10 | +11 | ||||
Jordan Anthony | 236 | 245 | +9 | ||||||
Drew Singleton | 219 | 222 | +3 | ||||||
Josh Ross | 229 | 225 | -4 | ||||||
Cameron McGrone | 225 | 228 | +3 | ||||||
VIPER(!) | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Khaleke Hudson | 205 | 205 | 220 | - | +15 | ||||
Jordan Glasgow | 200 | 210 | 210 | 223 | +10 | - | +13 | ||
SAFETY | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Tyree Kinnel | 200 | 206 | 201 | 215 | +6 | -5 | +14 | ||
Josh Metellus | 204 | 199 | 204 | -5 | +5 | ||||
Brad Hawkins | 204 | 213 | +9 | ||||||
J'Marick Woods | 203 | 210 | +7 | ||||||
Jaylen Kelly-Powell | 173 | 184 | +11 | ||||||
Casey Hughes | 185 | 187 | +2 | ||||||
Sammy Faustin | 190 | 187 | -3 | ||||||
CORNERBACK | |||||||||
Player | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017+ | 2018 | 14 to 15 | 15 to 16 | 16 to 17 | 17 to Now |
Brandon Watson | 188 | 189 | 203 | 200 | 204 | +1 | +14 | -3 | +4 |
David Long | 187 | 187 | 198 | - | +11 | ||||
Lavert Hill | 168 | 177 | 181 | +9 | +4 | ||||
Ambry Thomas | 179 | 183 | +4 | ||||||
Benjamin St-Juste | 193 | 196 | +3 | ||||||
Myles Sims | 173 | 183 | +10 | ||||||
Vincent Gray | 180 | 184 | +4 | ||||||
Gemon Green | 175 | 174 | -1 | ||||||
German Green | 178 | 175 | -3 |
Hit THE JUMP fo…
Dude, I have like two jobs here.
Okay you do it.
[Hit THE JUMP if for some excessively optimistic obsessiveness]
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Let's talk about the weights, by position:
Quarterback.
Dylan McCaffrey ain't as gangly anymore and Brandon Peters is up to playing weight but the eye-opener here is Joe Milton at 234 pounds. That's not Cardale Jones (249 lbs on the Chargers) size but it's on the way there.
Running back.
You all saw the jacked photo of Higdon to make his 12 new pounds the most believable on the roster. Somehow Chris Evans is pacing ahead still, up to 216. O'Maury Samuels is over 200, and Michael Barrett, if he sticks at RB, is immediately the largest running back on the roster.
Receiver.
Big gains for last year's crop (except Oliver Martin) give Michigan three Big Ten-sized receivers where last year they had none. Tarik Black's 9 pounds are the most encouraging because he probably lost a lot of weight while holed up last year, and he was pretty spindly last year.
Tight end.
Zach Gentry is huuuuge. Eubanks is also well into blocky-catchy size now and if that comes with the associated blocking uptick he might ameliorate the loss of Wheatley. Also Ryan Hayes is listed as a tight end but he's up to 271 already—hoping for four games and a redshirt but it'll be fun to see those four games.
Offensive line.
Huge gains for freshmen becoming redshirt freshmen are normal but these are some big jumps. Joel Honigford is up 20 pounds, Andrew Stueber—despite reports he was up to 340—was listed at 323. Bredeson and Runyan gained 12 pounds each heading into their junior seasons. Also Jaylen Mayfield, who was supposed to be a TE type to hang weight on, is already listed at plausible left tackle playing weight. Filiaga being down 4 is probably a good sign but it's unknown how much of that was shift. Onwenu continues to be a silly guess because you can't weigh an object if the scale is just gravitationally sucked into it.*
Note: Paea has been working with the offensive line but he's still a DL to the rosters. He's also up to 296.
Defensive line.
Again the second-year players all got thicc. Paea, DIB and Jeter are all up near or past (in Jeter's case) 300 pouinds after 20+ gains. Kwity Paye's jump to 260 was something we heard about in spring, but Luigi Vilain's leap is probably more encouraging because his injury was still holding him back last spring. Carlo Kemp also put some proof to his spring hype by coming in at about the same size as Gary. Aubrey Solomon losing 10 pounds is not discouraging but I don't remember him carrying much bad weight. Mone at 335 is terrifying but also corroborates the spring chatter that he's topping out as more immovable object than unstoppable force.
Linebacker and Viper(!).
Uche as the second-heaviest linebacker on the roster is something I didn't think I'd be seeing and probably good for him. Gil's 11 pounds are a great sign since his issue was size; Devin Bush's 11 pounds are probably something to keep the NFL from getting squirrely about a 220-pound doom squirrel. Surprised to see Singleton and Ross didn't gain that much but Brown likes them small.
Both Vipers are a lot bigger, about the size now that Bush was last year. Khaleke put proof to that in photos; Glasgow moved to Viper from strong safety and if he was able to play with that much more weight it's a good thing he did.
Safety.
All eyes are on JKP's tiny waist, which grew a few sizes but is still just 184—that was always a 2019 growth chart and he's on pace. Tyree Kinnel is the third guy lighting up Instagram with glistening new biceps at the beginning of fall and that's showing.
Cornerback.
David Long lost last season's chance to grow from his 2016 injury and he caught up—198 should be about his perfect size. Myles Sims is up to 183 which tracks with our belief he'll be the most likely freshman to be a true sophomore by this time next year.
Special teams.
I didn't put it on the chart but punter Brad Robbins is the biggest gainer on the team, up to 206 from 181. All 25 pounds are in his leg of course.
* You can take a snapshot of the event horizon but that won't be its current weight just the weight it shows when time stops.
This sounds like a lot of meat for the meat god.
Wanna hear about some walk-ons?
Just plausibly left-tackle shaped things please.
Freshman OL Griffin Korican is 6-6/305. Greg Robinson (NNTGERG) is down 8 pounds and to 6-6/280 so that's probably not happening. Dan Jokisch is up 28 pounds.
Is he 6-6?
He's 6-4 and that puts him at 279.
279 is like Michigan State tackle-sized.
Jess Speight is now 6-4/302. Presumably none of that is chicken fat.
Don't you have a 6-8 tight end you can put protein shakes into?
Carter Selzer is 6-8 and gained 12 pounds. He's a RS sophomore.
I'm listening.
He's now 234.
Height(!) Changes
These guys are all an inch taller than they were last year: Zach Gentry is now listed at 6-8. Deron Irving-Bey is 6-5. Devin Gil is 6-2. Ronnie Bell is 6-1. Casey Hughes the Utah transfer is 6-0 despite being 5-11 and 22 years old. Jon Runyan is 6-5.
6-5, that's big enough to play tackle!
You know people don't actually grow…
His dad is 6-10 or something it's happening
Number Changes
Tru Wilson is now 24 instead of "let's screw with Carl Grapentine" 27. Jacob West is #15 and a quarterback. Josh Uche is now #6 instead of #35! That's huge.
Huge! … Why is this huge?
Victor Hobson, David Bowens, Prescott Burgess, Paul Goebel as a junior in 1920…
Oh so roster overanalysis isn't just a once a year thing.
Not on the Roster:
Ran out of eligibility: Mason Cole, Mo Hurst, Mike McCray, Garrett Moores, Mo Hurst
You said Mo Hurst twice.
That second one was a reflexive sigh.
Oh. Transferred (you knew this) or left the program: Drake Harris (WMU), Ian Bunting, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Kekoa Crawford, Kareem Walker, Alex Malzone, Ja'Raymond Hall, Ty Wheatley Jr., Mo Ways, Wilton Speight.
Walk-ons not returned: Alex Kaminski, Austin Brenner, Brian Chu, Joe Beneducci, Nick Volk, Cheyenn Robertson, Ryan Tice, Conner Edmonds, Eric Tim, Evan Latham, Sean Fitzgerald, James "Doug" Foug.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO…..
They changed the rule.
….OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
They changed the rule! No more Foug'ing; no more Foug.
Any new walk-ons other than Korican catch your eye?
Jeff George Jr. and Berkeley Edwards both grad transferred in. There's a Kyle Grady.
As in Kelvin and Kevin?
No.
Freshman Numbers
Player | Pos | # | Deep Significance |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Milton | QB | 5 | Wangler! Also Tate. |
Michael Barrett | ATH | 6 | Softens the blow of losing both Kareem and Wheatley Jr at the same time. |
Christian Turner | RB | 28 | Fitz Toussaint shout-out |
Hassan Haskins | RB | 25 | Good RB number. Harlan Hukleby, Jon Vaughn, Rob Lytle for a year |
Ben VanSumeren | FB | 20 | Big Hart? |
Ronnie Bell | WR | 8 | Haven't had a good Avant YMRMFSPA lately. |
Ryan Hayes | TE | 60 | You sure you're a tight end? |
Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 89 | Ian Bunting did not leave because I kept yelling "Pitch it to Breaston" at him where did you hear that? |
Mustapha Muhammad | TE | 85 | Obviously went Kogering. |
Jalen Mayfield | OL | 73 | Dufektion. |
Aidan Hutchinson | DL | 97 | Hi dad. |
Julius Welschof | DL | 96 | The Sechsundneunzigiest zahl. |
Taylor Upshaw | SDE | 91 | Honoring Tom Seabron |
Cameron McGrone | LB | 44 | Swett! |
Myles Sims | CB | 6 | Like two Marlin Jacksons |
Casey Hughes | DB | 35 | Don Dufek, Tom Darden |
Gemon Green | DB | 9 | Marlin Jackson times three! |
German Green | DB | 13 | Marlin Jackson plus ten! |
Vincent Gray | DB | 31 | Marlin Jackson AND Braylon Edwards |
Sammy Faustin | DB | 17 | Dwight and Ivan Hicks, Otis Williams...guy knows his safeties |
Jake Moody | K | 13 | Why not 3? |
Errata
Jared Wangler has moved to fullback. How's that transition going?
Evidently he's embracing it.
What does it all mean?
We're gonna be awesome!
Conditioning program with recognition and accountability. Great idea.
A lot of “+” signs!
All weight gain is muscle...
All weight gain is muscle...
All weight gain is muscle...
All weight gain is muscle...
All weight gain is good. No weight gain is also good.
Re: Onwenu - what's the real Over/Under? Because 350 has to be the max they'll put on paper.
Man, I hope he's in shape to play a bunch this year.
Which player am I personally going to miss the most this year?
The answer is Moops.
Either that or their scale maxes out at 350, and his true weight is unknown.
I swear there was a kid at Purdue in the late 90's that they literally took to the Vet school to weigh because the football scales did top out at 350. I remember Drew Brees talking about it in class one day. I can't remember his name, but we did run into one night out at the bars, and he was the most massive human being I've ever seen in person. Like, would make Jake Long look small.
This annoys me. Just like when my wife watches "600 lb life" and they say they can't weigh themselves until they're at the hospital.
Buy 2 scales. Put one foot on each. Do addition. It's really not that hard.
That's what I was thinking. He couldn't have weighed in at exactly 350 3 years in a row, right? Lol
August 3rd, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^
At least he’s consistent.
August 4th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^
Dierdorf has a great story about jamming the scales at Michigan so he "weighed" exactly the max allowed for a whole year before they caught on.
A bell probably gets rung when he steps on it.
the weird thing about aubrey is that 287 is a little light for the one tech and for he and dwumfor to start together you'd want aubrey to be over 300. maybe mone and jeter are going to man the one tech?
That's my thought as well, or Mone rotating with Furbush/Uche. They have the depth now to have a full second platoon if they want to keep everyone fresh. The only position without a true backup is Anchor but there was some insider talk of Paye potentially benefiting from Gary wearing out the LT. So while it hasn't been announced, he may play over there more if Villain can capably back up Winovich.
Isn't Kemp backing up both Anchor and DT???
Mattison said they wanted him lighter
The weight gains are eye popping to me. I don't ever recall ever seeing so many consistent gains across the board. That has to be the result of a change in S&C. Hopefully, the conditioning doesn't suffer.
Worth the wait ! This is the best roster review available. And nice pick up on Mayfield’s take of Billy Dufek’s #73 - both guys are from GR. Hopefully Jalen can repeat as an All-American tackle!
Complaints that "scholarship athletes can't even afford a pizza..."
...Meet Joe Milton.
Sweeeeet, sweeeeet, football content. [drool]
The WR corps looks a little thin these days. Should we wring our hands over this or relax?
I'm pretty nervous about it. If one guy goes down, things get dicey. In that case, you'd probably see a bit more of the TEs outside.
Thanks for this!
FYI - Paea is exclusively working as interior OL per Mattison interview on WTKA today.
Yeah that was a report from the summer. But he's still listed at DL right now.
Same with Carlo Kemp - moved inside (DT)
Wait, what? Foug isn't on the team anymore? I get the rule changed, but you still need a kicker that can force the fair catch to happen consistently.
What is the rule change? I've seen it referenced a few times with regard to Foug
You're allowed to fair catch and take the ball at the 25 now on kickoffs. Putting it at the 1 yard line with a ton of hang time is therfore not as effective of a skill as before.
Foug's eligibility ran out.
You don't need a fair catch guy anymore if you have a guy that can bang it out of the endzone and I assume Nordin can do that.
James Foug enrolled at Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo in 2013. This would've been his sixth year as a college football player.
Mo Hurst ran out of eligibility twice.
Sigh.
No worries we have Edit buttons now!
Just a suggestion for next year, but could you list their heights as well?
I like a lot of this, I only hope Hudson and Bush don't lose much speed @ 220 and 233 respectively, and Evans can still accelerate like lightning. Regardless, this looks like a much more competitive team!
Gentry is now my "must watch" guy this year. If he has the same speed coupled with that height and size ... how in the hell do you defend that?
Agreed. That's bigger than Gronk. In the interview video from spring practice it looks believable. He looks like he's from Vahalla. I just can't see how you defend it when you also have to defend Black, DPJ and Collins. I think we'll be throwing the ball a lot this year.
August 3rd, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
From your mouth to Harbaugh's play-calling, I pray.
August 4th, 2018 at 12:36 AM ^
Yep. IF we can get protection & if Shea can make it 3-4 deep in his progressions, we’d be unstoppable.
Maybe a team’s #1 or #2 cornerbacks could blanket our #1 and #2 receiving targets in any given game (or double team them).
But there is NO way any team would be deep enough to cover #3 or #4. Somebody—Gentry, McKeown, Collins, Perry, will be screamingly wide open on almost every single play.
August 4th, 2018 at 12:45 AM ^
We can throw it, but the actual getting it on target part... god, I hope so.
Mike Gesicki 2.0
August 5th, 2018 at 12:17 AM ^
The 2.0 version comes with a couple extra inches and the blocking upgrade
Well, you get to the QB before he can throw it.
Looks like tackle depth chart. Fuuuuu...
4. No weight gains are the result of natural growth processes. Teenagers stop growing when they leave high school.
Disclaimer...not sure if our tackles can pass protect. Assuming JBB will be one of our starting tackles and Bredeson (320), Ruiz (319), and Onwenu (350) are in the middle we are gonna mash people in the run game! And, I'm guessing Gentry (262), DPJ (208) & Black (215) can block too. We are gonna have a big offense in terms of size.
Joe Milton might want to slow down a little or he's heading for JaMarcus Russell territory if not Jared Lorenzen. Pace yourself, young fella.
August 6th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
Jamarcus Russell, the all-SEC QB, Manning Award winner, and #1 overall pick? What's the problem here?
I'm gonna miss Ol' Doug.
Doom squirrel... that's good stuff
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