Mathematical analysis: Michigan has a 81.45 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament
Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the 2013 National Championship. Yes, you heard right - the maths prove it:
Michigan's record by City's first letter:
A (Ann Arbor, Auburn Hills): 19-1 (95 percent)
B (Brooklyn, Bloomington): 1-1 (50 percent)
C (Columbus, Champaign, Chicago): 2-2 (50 percent)
E (Evanston, East Lansing): 1-1 (50 percent)
M (Minneapolis, Madison): 1-1 (50 percent)
N (New York City): 2-0 (100 percent)
P (Peoria): 1-0 (100 percent)
S (State College): 0-1 (0 percent)
W (West Lafayette): 1-0 (100 Percent)
Now, the south regional will be hosted in Arlington, Texas - which, incidentally, starts with an A. Therefore, Michigan has a 95 percent chance of winning each game, meaning they have a 90.25 (.95x.95) percent chance of winning the region and heading to the final four....in Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta, it also starts with an A.
The Wolverines will then have a 85.74 (.9025 x.95) percent chance of advancing to the title game and a 81.45 (.8574 x .95) percent chance of winning the National Title!
Hooray! And even though it worked in '89, thank God the Final Four isn't in Seattle. We'd have no shot based on these advanced statistics. Take that, Mathlete!
Downvoters be damned, I'm not letting your collective lack of humor get me out of the happy zone.
Edited to add West Lafayette, somehow I forgot to add that to the list the first go around.
Go home, you're drunk.
Drunk with excitement that our chances are so good! Before pulling out my TI-83, I had no idea we were such a prohibitive favorite.
My guess is he's drunk AT home. Still.... flawless maths.
Nope, work Many thanks to my employer for choosing to give internet usage and alcohol consumption the blind eye treatment.
Well I can't argue with basic arithmetic -- Senator Francis J. Underwood
Or screw someone and have them unknowingly do it for him, and afterward laugh about it with Elizabeth.
Claire*
stay here, you're drunk and it's wonderful
...and the NIT has a lock on NYC. How come the NCAA tournement is never in the Big Apple? This is bullshit, but I still like our chances.
Agreed. New York, New Orleans, or Portland would have assured Michigan of the title.....but alas, we'll have to just accept there is a 18.55 percent chance we don't win the NC.
Obvious flaw here is you must use the state, not the city.
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That's quackery. Everyone knows this type of analysis only works using a City's first initial.
I never argue with the maths.
This should replace Kenpom. Pitt at #8? They must've had an early shipment of Oberon over there.
March 26th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
And we don't. I think Michigan would still win.
Ghana's best chance is if they play by FIFA rules.
Flawless work.
I've read about this, it's legit.
Wouldn't the math actually be (19/20)*(20/21)*(21/22)*(22/23) = 82.6%?
Yeah, what WolvinLA said!
Exactly, history majors don't know shit for math. As a sociology major, however, I don't even need my calculator app to figure out a tip anymore.
I'm jealous. I can only do math in "scores" based on my history degree. Unfortunately, if it doesn't involve increments of 20, I'm useless.
As an English major (LSA '1993), I have a correction to your thread title, which should read: "Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament." But your maths look perfect to me--that's the important part.
No. A team's city-letter-win-percentage is defined by "the winning percentage of all games with a particular beginning letter before March 25th of the current calendar year."
So, unfortunately, our 95% is locked in. At least that's how I understand it.
ahhh, my bad. many apologies
Flashbacks of Math 425 my senior year
March 25th, 2013 at 10:47 PM ^
I have a Math 425 exam tomorrow morning. Good thing I came here while studying.
It's a good thing we're in the South regional, otherwise we'd have no data to go on.
That doesn't sound right, but I don't know enough about maths to dispute him.
Stats Guy:
Grumble grumble, correlation...hrmph, causation...
Me:
Hey stats guy, fuck yourself! I've been watching that feed from Spike to GRIII too many times to care about your "math"!!!!!!!!
Bravo. This seems to makes too much sense for one to question
Guess its time to head to Vegas, with these numbers in hand those odds on Michigan reaching the Final Four and winning the whole thing look like easy money.
I will send you a thank you letter after I have all my winnings in hand from some exotic location.
My chiropractor/phrenologist told me the bumps on my noggin mean Michigan has a 92.7% chance of winning.
Not the worst place to have bumps, trust me.
if you know what I mean.
Corelation != Causation
Considering their 1-0 regular season records in West Lafayette and Ann Arbor.
This is not the thread for your negativity.
the Buckeyes were 0-1 in Ann Arbor.
There is a 0% chance of a Championship for Ohio State!
That's more like it
i come back home from the great hockey war of 13' to this? i didnt go fight to come back and have you young punks with your rock'n roll and hipster math try and ruin it.