Worst to First
Interested in the general consensus of a worst to first for UM. I know it's ludicrous, but it would have been ludicrous for anyone to have thought that NW would have gone from worst to first from 2019 to 2020 in the Big Ten West... yet they did.
So, the first question posed for the board is, what did Pat Fitzgerald do (besides having the good fortune of being in the West) to go from 1-8 in the B1G in 2019 to 6-1 in 2020?
The biggest change that I saw was a replacement of the DC. NW only had 3 players drafted although two went in the first round and a bunch of UDFAs. So, they clearly had some talent, but I think we'd all agree that our talent this year would match up pretty well with NW last year.
I surely hope that the transitive property works for us on the DC change, albeit we weren't technically the worst team in the B1G East last year, but we lost to them, too. So, we've got a chance?
It's almost summer. Go outside and golf or have a beer or mow your lawn.
Hell, mow my lawn. It sure needs it.
The couple inches of fresh snow on the ground here in Denver disagrees with you ?
We still got more to go. Latest snow last year was June 4.
About 3" here in Fort Collins, but this was indeed the last real cold push. Spring is here.
And 100 degrees in Phx would like a word with Denver...
Camp Anawanna...
We hold you in our hearts...
Put UM in any division in the country but the BIG East or SEC West (probably East too) and anything would be possible.
Hard to get any momentum being in the same division as a top 3 program in the country - most specifically when it's your storied historical rival and they've been beating you like a drum for 2 decades.
And yet a team like LSU is able to rise up and beat Alabama for the SEC west crown every few years. Go figure.
Michigan is not a team like LSU
Auburn under fired head coach Gus Malzahn beat Nick Saban's Alabama dynasty 3 times (including a 9-4 Auburn team that beat the 2019 version of Bama that we played in a bowl game). Are we not even comparable to Auburn? Why is it that Gus could beat peak Saban Alabama several times but we can't beat Ohio State more than once a decade?
Whether we're comparable to either Auburn or LSU, both schools are swimming in a deeper talent pool than Michigan. Auburn/LSU can stay within their regional footprint and still grab a lot of talent.
I wrote this on another post, but Auburn was very fortunate to win two of those 3 games. One was the miracle kick-six, and another was a 3 point win that Alabama dominated statistically but lost on turnovers. That was the 2019 Alabama team that lost Hurts to transfer and Tagovaialoa to injury. Still Bama, but a slight step back from perennial playoff team. That leaves one solid win to point to.
We've been close. 2016 went to overtime, we had an injured QB, and there was questionable refereeing. In 2017 we were down to our 3rd choice QB due to injury and had the ball with a chance to tie/lead in the 4th quarter. In 2018 everyone thought we had the better team but Haskins and Day figured out the best way to take advantage of the weakest spots on D. And even 2019 had some weird things - a first quarter fumble from Dobbins bounces back up into his lap, while a bad snap for us gets dropped by Patterson and recovered by OSU. The 2020 game gets cancelled when we would have won (kidding!)
Point is, for whatever reason Harbaugh has not gotten any breaks to go his way vs OSU. The team has as often as not been close enough to be in the vicinity of OSU but hasn't had fortune land on our side in the way it has for Auburn a couple of times.
I think we're trending the wrong way, 2016 is way back in the rear view mirror now and 18-20 clearly did not build on the progress of that team. But there is always some chance of an unusually great game from Michigan, or OSU meltdown, that puts us over the top in at least one game. It's football and nothing is ever guaranteed.
Excuses...Just win. If Auburn is down by 20, none of those things matter. Saying we were a better team in 2018 but got out-coached doesn't make me feel better.
I think we need to focus on beating one of the worst MSU teams in history before we think about beating the suckeyes.
I do not know anything about Fitzgerald's personality-though, I guess, that does somewhat inform one, but Coach Harbaugh is certainly unbendingly polarizing. The likelihood that Harbaugh can pull off such a turn around at this point in his life seems deeply remote. I am not expecting a "shock the world" season-at least not in a good way.
Not sure if anyone else saw this but there was a long article in The Athletic chronicling the recruitment of Najee Harris. Harbaugh's methods/personality are covered in some detail and based on Najee himself Jim is not what many believe him to be (Najee said Harbaugh was awesome, genuine, and really funny). Northwestern was, I believe, one of the most experienced teams in the country last year. And they brought in a known quantity at QB to address their biggest weakness. They also play in the Big Ten West. Those are the reasons for their success. Michigan was one of the least experienced teams in the country last year. Experience that took a major hit when our best players started dropping like flies.
Having played another sport at NU but roomed with 3 FB players, I know Pat Fitzgerald from around the athletic facilities, in the weight room etc. he’s smart, he’s cool. He’s highly ethical, very fair. He’s not especially charismatic relative to major conference head coaches. He does seem genuinely honest.
Thanks MGolem but that view of JH does NOT fit the narrative on MGB!
Despite all of the “Michigan difference” talk, we are no different when it comes to parroting the media position on JH.
Players seem to like and respect JH. That’s the most important thing IMO.
PS - Had the please of golfing with him years ago and didn’t think he was “weird” at all.
1. Hire a CB coach
2. Hold fall camp
3. Beat WMU
4. One game at a time from there
5. Normalize not trying to project an entire college football season in mid-May. The takes are all the same this time of year anyway. It's just noise.
First objective accomplished! Next.
Never thought I'd see the day when we were looking to NW for answers.
They have played Ohio State twice in the Big Ten Championship game (when they had OSU's undivided attention), and they played them very well. Far better than anything we have done.
I don't care where the answers come from, I just want some.
"Worst to first" — doesn't that work as a description of Bama or tOSU?
The worst place gets first place?
When I saw the title of this post, I thought some incurable optimist was writing about the Tigers.
I thought it would be able the Lions, which might actually be within the realm of possibility (although still very unlikely).
While I fully support open discussions on the board, how many "make predictions/best or worst case scenario for 2021" threads do we really need? It feels like this horse has been beaten to death, taken to a vet, revived, and then beaten some more. The responses are usually just the usual suspects berating Harbaugh and the team, others saying we must wait and see, and a few more citing reasons to be optimistic.
With all due respect, I think my question was, "What did Pat Fitzgerald do (besides having the good fortune of being in the West) to go from 1-8 in the B1G in 2019 to 6-1 in 2020?"
To rephrase, do we think we've made the changes to make a similar leap? I think that's different than asking what we think the record for 2021 will be, but I would agree that horse has been beaten to death and there is little left to tell that it was ever a horse at all.
I wasn't criticizing you specifically, just the number of similar threads that have appeared here lately. Actually, I have looked at Northwestern 2020 and Notre Dame 2017 as reasons to believe a few staffing changes can lead to a quick turnaround. And Notre Dame has been to two playoffs since. Just sayin'.
Notre Dame would have been killed by OSU last year. Not saying they were bad, but not good enough to win B!G east.
It could happen. Need a QB to hit. If we get game manager level QB play, we could outscore just about everyone and have a decent season. If somehow we got great QB play out of nowhere, we could beat everyone except OSU by outscoring them.
I do not think it is likely we will get great QB play, but getting a game manager out of McNamara, Bowman or McCarthy is fairly likely.
Nobody did whiplash like this as the Padres did in the 90s. Does anyone else remember that? They went from first to worst and then first again in stretch in the mid-late 1990s? The Diamondbacks haven't quite managed that, but they've come eerily close a couple times, I believe.
Didn't the Marlins do this not too long ago?
This would be a far stretch even for transitive properties, plus we had far more changes than just simply a DC. Worst to first? Doubtful, but stranger things have happened.
How did NW do it? That’s what JH and Staff are paid to figure out. I am a supposed to enjoy the product of their work, not figure it out for them.
I think people will be very surprised how much value there is in a qb who does not turn it over often, and converts key 3rd and 5's at an above average clip. People need to quit being enamored with arm strength.
Michigan is going to have a solid year.
Yeah, because Harbaugh is the QB whisperer....
Time for him to talk a little louder.
It’s for sure possible. Going 0-12 is possible as well. I would say both are unlikely outcomes.
Playing OSU the last game if the year is a huge disadvantage. It means they always have a QB with 11 games of experience at a minimum. CJ Stroud is supposedly tearing it up for them, I have no doubt he'll be rolling by the time he comes into the Big House.
Playing OSU the last game if the year is a huge disadvantage. It means they always have a QB with 11 games of experience at a minimum.
So that's an advantage for tOSU? What about Michigan's QBs? They don't develop over 11 games either?
No. Have you not been watching lately?
I've been watching.
I just don't understand the notion because QBs are developed at OSU and not at Michigan how that's an "advantage" for OSU.
This fanbase is full of insular idiots.
They digress over the season. Maybe if we played OSU the 1st game, before JH breaks them, we can win.
i mean, that should be the same for Michigan no?
Advantage for them, disadvantage for us?
McNamara will have a bunch of games under his belt too...its the coaches job to get McNamara rolling as well.
I just remember watching McNamara in the Rutgers game last year. He kept looking at the sidelines for the next play, and then he'd start waving his arm as if to say "c'mon, let's go, get the play in!" It seems to me that the sideline act to get a play in is still not a smooth machine.
Well to be fair that should also mean our QB has 11 games of experience. Along with the rest of our team.
I forgot to mention in my comment above that NW did not replace their DC despite the OP saying as much. Hankwitz was with them until the end of their resurgent season. He retired following their bowl game so their DC is new for this season, not last. Further highlighting what improved experience, a Big Ten West schedule, and some continuity can do for a team.
Maybe if we were in the west. Plus Covid seemed to have a strange effect on the B10 minus OSU, Nebraska, and MSU.
So put Michigan in the West.
That way they only get slaughtered by Wisconsin and lose to Iowa every other game instead of losing to Penn State and Staee every other game.
THEN, if Michigan makes the CCG, the same ass raping at the hands of Ohio State is still there.