December 3rd, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Sorry, I should have mentioned in the OP that our defense is #1, naturally.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
We should update the OP because the offense goes against the #1 defense in practice every week
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
Someone let the slappies on TV know. They don't do this level of research.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^
Here's the data for the 4 playoff teams. In theory, M has an advantage on defense vs. Alabama, though I'm not sure how much this takes into account Alabama's improvement over the course of the season:
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
Sure didn't seem like psu and osu offenses were virtually the same.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
So the 2 worst offenses of the 4 CFP teams and the 2 best defenses of the 4 CFP teams are in the Michigan-Alabama semifinal. And still I hesitate to bet the under.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:09 PM ^
Not sure how much to trust a metric that has PSU at 4th.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^
Every time I watch Alabama, I just can't help but marvel that their dudes seem to be way more roided up than opponent. I remember thinking this first in 2012, when they crushed us Jerryworld. Their TE, no idea who it was, looked like a man among boys physically.
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
When Notre Dame played Alabama in the BCS title game, ND commentators in the pregame warm-ups said that their players looked like high school players in comparison.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:12 PM ^
I'm certain the ncaa & sec check just as rigorously as the IOC does.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
IIRC, Brian Kelly noted that he “needed players like those” (that were on Bama’s lines).
Kelly pursued an approach to increase the size of his lines with his recruiting strategy.
It seems to me that Michigan’s staff has recruited well, and Herbert (with the S&C staff) have helped those young men develop - both technique and S&C - to be competitive at this level - as well as prepare them for a potential future in the NFL.
Again, not discrediting Bama. But, Michigan has a solid team.
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
Noice!
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Beat Bama!
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
Get thee behind me, Saban!
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Get thee behind me, Satan!
FIFY.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
That was the joke.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
I think you missed something....go blue
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:08 PM ^
WIN THE ROSE BOWL!
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
This!! Sure would be great to get a Rose Bowl win after all these years.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^
WIN IT ALL!
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
So... we should assume those top defenses are Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, and... Nebraska?
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
Wish I could edit the OP- yes.
#2 Iowa - 26 points
#3 OSU - 30 points
#4 PSU - 24 points
#8 Nebraska - 45 points
In case anyone needs a reminder
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
Nebraska being the #8 defense is wild.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:51 PM ^
Everyone playing in the Big 10 west should have a massive asterisk on their ranking. Name me the best B10 west QB. His name was Cade McNamara.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:59 PM ^
I'd go with Northwestern's Ben Bryant.
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
Isn't SP+ opponent adjusted?
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
In theory, yes, but advanced metrics tend to struggle to account for the Big Ten West's offensive futility. Wisconsin finished 7th in SP+ in 2021, which obviously was absurd.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
In theory yes, but any opponent-adjustment model needs crossover games - lot of them - in order to work properly. The relative isolation of college football conferences makes this very difficult, if not outright impossible.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^
Technically the SP+ ratings are supposed to be opponent adjusted but I just find it hard to believe that like 8 of the top 25 defenses are in the Big Ten or whatever it is. Are they that good or are they just playing nothing but terrible offenses?
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
It shows how skewed this list is. OSU has a good but not great defense. PSU has a good, not great defense (slightly better than OSU due to pass rush, IMO). Iowa is a good defense as a unit more than individually, they're exploitable with athletes on the outside. Nebraska is a decent defense.
Mostly, they and Michigan are aided by being in a mostly trash B1G. Fact.
Bama is full of roided-up 5* players coached by maybe the best CFB coach ever. If you can't bully Iowa, you won't bully Bama. The athleticism gap we had on Iowa is true for Bama compared to us when we're on offense.
If Michigan wants any hope to win this game they have to come out on offense with radically different wrinkles than we've seen all year. They have about 3 weeks to fully weaponize Edwards as a pass catcher, get the OL in order and scheme up ways to exploit Bama from the TE position and more.
On defense Michigan has to get Milroe off balance with 3-4 and keep a spy on him for when he will take off. That's his default state. He's a massive RB playing QB except he's not an atrocious passer. Not elite but not awful.
They're definitely beatable but the way you don't win is by bunching up and insisting that you can bash them to death. You won't. You weaken their box by showing them that you can and will throw the ball. When Bama backs off their DL is subject to taking wrong steps, overrunning even power runs and not shedding blocks. You just will not come out in power and dictate the game. It'll look a lot like 2021 UGA if you do and this Bama defense is not 2021 UGA.
You can win but not if you treat them like a B1G team you can outlast with middling power runs and a lot of 3rd down out routes. They'll house those all day if UM doesn't change a thing.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:44 PM ^
I agree with a lot of this. I can understand the desire to look at this game and say “we’re the number 1 team we need to make them play our game”, but I’d rather catch them off guard by opening it up a bit and utilizing more play action and Edwards routes either out of the backfield or in motion.
I think if we go in there assuming that our style of ball is going to work against a team that talented we might be in trouble. Hopefully Harbaugh and the coaches and players remember what happened when we tried that against Georgia
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:27 PM ^
Thanks for posting this as a question, because I was completely lost at who the team fourth team was. I knew about PSU, OSU and Iowa, but would have never figured Nebraska was the other team. According to NCAA.com Nebraska is 13th.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
I was trying to lookup Alabama opponents' rankings but can't seem to find sp+ ranking. Is it behind a paywall?
Anyway, just wanted to see how it looks for Bama, Texas, Washington, FSU and Georgia. Does Bill adjust for ineffective offenses?
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
Connelley sold out to ESPN a few years ago and, yes, they paywall SP+. I’m very sore about it, as I am about 538 and Nate Silver. Can’t blame them for building valuable brands and audiences and cashing in. But it pisses me off nonetheless.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^
You can often find the general rankings reposted to Reddit’s CFB page. Doesn’t usually have the breakdowns of offense and defense though
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^
Bama: Overall #7, Offense #11, Defense #9
Texas: Overall #6, Offense #6, Defense #10
Washington: Overall #11, Offense #4, Defense #45
FSU: Overall #8, Offense #16, Defense #7
Georgia: Overall #2, Offense #5, Defense #5
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Georgia should have been in. They pass the eye test. Those blond curls and those bulbous tits.. what a beauty pageant contestant they make with that size 2 waist.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
Maybe name the teams...as well as their rankings?
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
This definitely puts some data to my gut feeling that Michigan can move the ball up and down the field against this Alabama defense. We will need a dynamic game plan, but the distinct possibility exists for M to put 35 on Alabama and play keep away at the same time.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
I think Michigan should also be able to get to Milroe. Georgia was #65 in the nation in sacks before yesterday's game, but (if I recall correctly) they had 4 sacks against Alabama. It doesn't seem like your fathers Alabama OL.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
This isn't a vintage Nick Saban 'Bama team. Texas sacked Milroe five times and basically had their way with 'Bama up front (in contrast, 'Bama's defense barely touched Ewers). The score in that game doesn't reflect the extent to which 'Bama was physically dominated by Texas.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:49 PM ^
with that said, Bama now is light years ahead of where they were when they played Texas. Milroy improoved tremendously throughout the year. Using that game as a measuring stuck shouldn't even be accounted for.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:33 PM ^
Can we use the Bama-Auburn game as a measuring stick?
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^
Yeah that was my #1 takeaway from that Texas-Bama game. UT’s d-line mauled Bamas front. They were in the backfield all game. A potential opportunity for us assuming we can contain Milroe and it doesnt result in a bunch of crippling scrambles
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^
This flies in the face of what I just heard from ESPN. They were saying that Michigan will lose the physical battle on the lines, and that the skill players for Michigan aren't as good as those from Bama. They also said that Milroe will be a new QB that UM hasn't seen because he can run. They said nothing about JJ's ability to run.
Michigan is quite an underdog, apparently.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:34 PM ^
Pretty gross to watch ESPN pumping up Bama knowing in the background that the network is heavily incentivized to keep the SEC hype going. They play neutral media while in reality their finances are tied to the SECs
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^
While averaging 36.7 PPG and holding opponents to 9.5 PPG.
Yes, this team is pretty good.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
How does it account for the fact that many of the offenses in the B1G are terrible?
Honest question.
The 50th ranked defense would've shut out that Iowa team last night. All they did was help our stats.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Big Ten teams (especially the West) warp S&P's defensive metrics. He tries to account for schedule strength, but there's no way to account for that vortex.
December 3rd, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
I would think that any serious metric (SP+, FEI) would have to account for the strength of the opponent, but facing only 3 good offenses all year (OSU, Maryland, PSU) means that the Michigan rating has a lot of extrapolation in it.