Quick look at Washington as Playoff Matchup
Good for Washington winning a 2nd time over Oregon. Oregon with the #1 SP+ offense scored 31 points agains Washington's 42nd ranked defense. Michigan scored 30 points against the #3 defense. Washington's offense is 5th which sounds scary but IMHO they are less challenging than OSU's at least on a talent basis.
Washington is 11th in SP+ while Michigan is 1st. SP+ indicates that Michigan should win this game by 14.1 points. Yes I know, TCU vibes all over again. U of M coaches aren't perfect but they are smart and won't repeat the TCU mistakes.
Predicted CFB Playoff matchups:
Georgia vs Florida State
Michigan vs Washington
Georgia vs Michigan
If this happens it will be the first CFP with every team without being undefeated!
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Every guy has bad games. JJ had his worst game this season against one of the worst teams on the schedule, Bowling Green. If you watched the game last night, Penix was dropping dimes all over the place. Dropping the ball into Odunze's lap on that long slant 20 plus yards downfield (whatever you call that route) was one of the best throws I've seen all year.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Egbuka has been hurt almost all year. So while yeah, he's a projected first round pick, he didn't really have a first round pick type of year. He had 35 catches for 451 yds.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
But he was healthy against us, which is the important thing, since we're talking about how our defense can stack up.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
UWs oline is not in same arena as osu, which i was surprised there …osu oline looked way stronger.
So our Dline vs there oline…penix will have a challenge on his hands and he doesn’t run anymore
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^
Gotta contain Giles Jackson.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
Beat Iowa
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
Washington's offense is 5th which sounds scary but IMHO they are less challenging than OSU's at least on a talent basis.
It’s pretty close. At the skill positions, MH2 is probably a little bit better than Odunze but the rest of Washington’s WRs are about equal to OSU’s and Pennix >> McCord. Dylan Johnson isn’t as explosive as Trayveon Henderson but he’s a tough, slippery runner. Stover is probably a better overall TE than Westover but Westover is still pretty good. I’d probably rather have UW’s offensive line because they appear better coached, but player-for-player the OSU guys are bigger and more athletic.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
IF this is our matchup, count on Washington scoring 35 points. They can do it on anybody. We need a plan to score 40 points. Washington has the defense that will allow it if we exploit it.
We need to have learned the lesson of TCU, where we had something insane like 13 Tackles For Loss against us. If you are facing a brick wall, go through the damn window.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^
If this is the matchup, I'd like to be ready with a more aggressive, NFL approach on defense in case the in game turns into a shoot out. I watch the Steelers a lot and they know they can't stop good nfl offenses from moving the ball, so they focus totally on creating turnovers instead of limiting yardage and it's worked out well for them
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
You don't think Michigan is running an NFL defense, and has been all year? Dude... Michigan has been practicing defense for Washington's offense all year long. It's virtually the same offense that OSU runs, only with a better QB.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
It seems extremely rare to me to see an NFL team blitz as infrequently as we did against Ohio State. I hope we could do that against Washington and succeeded, but I don't think we should count on it specifically because their QB is so much better. May need some more pressure to create turnovers if we can't stop them from moving the ball
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
M has been playing the best type of defense. Where you stop the run with 6 guys and can get pressure with 4 using stunts and twists. It's any d coordinators dream and very few teams have the ability to pull it off.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I don’t know. For UW to win the game will likely need to be a shootout but M should be able to dominate the LOS against them, so hopefully M can play the game on its terms. I am not taking it as a foregone conclusion that UW moves the ball at will, but if they do then yes—generating turnovers would be critical.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Michigan needs to throw the ball on 1st down. Pass in obvious run situations to open the run game up later on.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
You think the team that put up 24, 22, and 15 points against WSU, OSU and ASU should be EXPECTED to put up 35 points against Michigan??? I mean, they COULD, but I would definitely bet the under if someone gave me that line.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
Bowl games are a different animal. They get a month to get healthy and gameplan.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
WA hasn’t played a team that can kill the clock like Michigan.
December 2nd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
RE: M-Dog / Brick wall....
This is the key point for the CFP games for us. We must learn the lessons from the TCU game and assume that Washington will have a solid plan to stop our Plan A. We have to be ready to start with something unexpected, or at the very least switch up to plans B and C quickly, like we did in one game this year -- was it the game where Campbell was acting OC / play-caller? I think so.....
Like several posters have said this season, Michigan has the talent to pick from the full playbook right from the jump. In the CFP, they need to have the will to do that.
Now if JJ's injury lingers, that's a different story and we'll have to do our best. But, we can't play scared in the CFP trying to prevent such injury. We have to go all-in and hope that it works out. Because I don't think focusing on run-heavy will work.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
Washington in the Rose Bowl - we always seem favored and pull it out about half the time. Hope for a repeat of 1981.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Or 1993!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
One of my favorite Michigan games ever.
We won the Rose Bowl. In a shootout.
That was completely unheard of at the time. We would typically play tight and nervous as hell in the Rose Bowl, and then collapse when the opponent got a TD lead on us in the second half.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
I believe that was the Keith Jackson "moon rising over Pasadena" game. The cherry on top.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
I never like playing a west coast team on the west coast.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:53 AM ^
Washington is West Coast in time zone only. It's far as hell from Pasadena. (They are further from LA than Ann Arbor is from Miami.) It will be an expensive airplane trip for them too.
We suck on natural grass, but Washington does not play on natural grass either. And they did not play in the Rose Bowl already this year.
It's not like facing USC or UCLA in the Rose Bowl.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
Washington currently has 39 players from California on its roster.
Warren Moon was born in LA and went to high school and JC there.
The attitude of many of the people here reminds me of the dismissive, sneering contempt that Michigan fans had for Washington in late November and December of 1977.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
Mgoblog must have been wild in the 70's.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
We suck on natural grass,
What is this based on? Our only games on grass this year were MSU (49-0) and PSU (24-15).
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:53 AM ^
This ^^ Rose Bowl can be a house of horrors for the BIG. I wish there was a way for us to get into the sugar bowl vs Washington , but I know that’s unlikely
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
Impossible for us to play the Sugar Bowl now I think. We'd only go to the Sugar Bowl if we were the 1, since Georgia would take it otherwise. and we'd only do that if we were playing a team not from the South. Washington has locked in 3 or better as I see it, so I don't see how, even if we were 1, we could possibly play someone not from the South. Is my thinking right there?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
I think you’re right, apart from just total and utter chaos. Bama would have to beat GA, and then maybe you’re looking at a bama, tx, FSU fourth seed. Maybe if you’re playing FSU it’s a consideration, but I think you would prefer to play any of them in the rose bowl
December 2nd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
Yes you are. Michigan is all but certain to play in the Rose Bowl. If Georgia loses and we are #1, the opponent will be from the south. Basically these options:
FSU: obvious rose bowl choice
Alabama: obvious rose bowl choice
Texas: avenge the Vince Young Rose Bowl
If Georgia wins, sugar bowl is off the table, although that would be the obvious choice if available for M vs UW.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
You’re going to have to get used to it.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
This Washington team looks better than TCU to me. I would be more concerned about Penix’s feet than his arm. He extends plays that should be dead.
This Michigan team and our D is better than last year.
UW can’t stop our run and if they do Brian promises play action will be utilized to win this matchup.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Penix tripped over himself multiple times last night. His feet are more of a danger to him than us.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
He got himself rocked on designed QB runs too. He's not elusive like he was pre-injuries.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Plus Washington's defense is not near as good as Ohio State
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
UW has a weak D.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
No TCU vibes. This isn't a 14 point spread kind of game if it happens.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
Purple teams in the CFP now officially have our attention.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
Every year, Michigan’s schedule is overloaded with teams with bad offenses, and then they play OSU, who they’re very familiar with and focus on all year. As we’ve seen the last two seasons, the playoffs are a different story. Washington is going to put up points. Michigan’s going to need to keep scoring in order to win. I don’t think Michigan is 14 points better than Washington, or anyone else they might meet in the playoffs. First things first, though. Beat Iowa. They’re not going to want to let Michigan in with a loss.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Win the game!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
UWs offense looked very fast last night. I don’t know if it’s because of the style or way that Penix plays and throws the ball but I was impressed. They would definitely be a handful and I would be more concerned about our offense being ready to go toe to toe in a shoot out than relying on our defense to stop them. That said, I hate assuming that this scenario is going to happen and that Iowa is an automatic win. Can we please focus on beating Iowa for now? We will have 4 weeks to discuss this!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
BEAT IOWA!
EMERGE HEALTHY!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
My son and I had a conversation last night regarding playing Washington. They score first and then we go 3 and out. Washington could double up on us in a hurry. Then again, we could just do what we do and keep Penix on the sideline and let them try and force things. There’s one certain in this game, both teams will face something neither has faced. It’s impressive that this is the Washington program we beat into submission a few years ago.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
I'm sure the players and coaches are focused on beating Iowa..we as fans can look ahead..as far as our offense against Washington I would say Ohio State defense is much better then Washington and we scored 30 on them
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Well, we scored 23 and got an additional 7 on a very short field. Still a pretty darn good effort against OSU's excellent defense (and we fucking won). Out of curiosity, is there an advanced stat that adjusts total points after taking swings in field position into account? Is that what "success rate" is?
December 2nd, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
Blocking and tackling wins games
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^
One fact I thought I heard yesterday that blew my mind. This was the first Pac game between two top five teams since 1947!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
that might not be accurate. IIRC i went to a UCLA v. WSU game in the late '80's that was a #1 vs #2 or 4 type of game. the game sticks out because i was shocked at how empty the rose bowl was for what should've been a marquis match up.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Wow, great memory. I may have heard it incorrectly.
but another reality check. Late 80s was 35 years ago!!!! Sheesh