After three strong performances, particularly on the defensive end, the Wolverines came crashing down after a strong first half in East Lansing. A lackluster win over Nebraska actually resulted in Michigan dropping 10 spots on Kenpom while the NET rankings now place Michigan at 53.

THREE UP

Hunter Dickinson, good at the basketball. Single game +/- may be the most fraudulent metric in basketball, but Dickinson's +18 in 23 minutes of action certainly came with a heavy dose of truth syrup. I don't think it's exaggeration to say that Michigan may have lost by 20 points but for his efforts.

To put his recent play in context, during conference play Hunter is averaging 20.6 points, 7.6 rebounds. 2.8 assists and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting a tad under 60% from the floor and 31.3% from distance.

We're talking about a legit 7-footer with an assist rate of 20.2% and that's underselling his playmaking chops. The consistent skip passes he deals out that create the advantages that lead to assists aren't even captured by the metrics. He's not perfect, but he has been dominant and we've needed every bit of it. 

A win is still a win. The win over Nebraska wasn't pretty by any means, but it keeps tournament hopes alive when the alternative was functionally a lost season. Teams win ugly games all the time during conference play (see MSU vs Maryland yesterday), so never apologize for a conference victory.

That said, the team's play this year hasn't provided much hope for improvement exclusive of the aforementioned three-game stretch. But, that win does keep us alive to fight for another day. While sustained improvement (namely defense) may not seem likely, it buys the coaching staff time to get this thing right. A win in either of the upcoming contests against Purdue in tandem with a home win over OSU likely puts the Wolverines on the right side of the bubble. This win gives Juwan Howard and staff that opportunity. 

DeVante Jones, slowly coming along. Michigan's starting floor general isn't a star, but he's become an adequate offensive player after a rough start. 10.2 points and 4 assists per game with a 2.5/1 assist/turnover ratio during B10 play is solid play for an up-transfer.

Jones is the best ballscreen creator on the roster by a wide margin, as the Wolverines put up .99ppp on pick-and-roll possessions (including passes), which is good for 80th percentile nationally per Synergy. He's not a guy that can get a bucket in late-clock scenarios and has no pull-up game absent a ton of space, but he can get Michigan clean looks as both a scorer/playmaker when he has a ballscreen.

[AFTER THE JUMP, let's talk about the defense]

THREE DOWN

Blitzing the ballscreens. The Wolverine defense was torched by MSU exploiting that particular coverage. During 13 non-garbage time possessions, the Spartans scored 1.333ppp against the blitz. The more staggering number? MSU scored every possession in which Michigan blitzed against AJ Hoggard, conceding a whopping 2.33ppp. 

Against MSU, the more effective approach was undoubtedly utilizing drop coverage and that was rather obvious. For context, the Spartan offense was held to .5ppp during 8 non-garbage time possessions against drop coverage.

The choice to continue with the blitz was baffling and one that certainly limited any chance Michigan had at stealing one on the road in a game that appeared very winnable from a personnel/matchup perspective. 

The alternative, not so good. For the season, Michigan is giving up .946ppp on pull-up jumpers (includes both midrange + threes)............on 223 shot attempts, good for 4th percentile nationally. These possessions against Nebraska provide some visual analysis that contextualizes the data. We're far beyond the idea of this being random/regression forthcoming. 

Michigan is forcing "bad shots" in theory, but the results don't match. What the bad shot theory doesn't convey is that it's difficult to cede 3-7 inches from your starting backcourt while adequately contesting pull-ups. As I've always said, "bad shots" are more about who rather than what. 

Taking that into account, the blitz/drop coverage choice becomes a real dilemma for Juwan Howard. Going to a drop coverage scheme opens Michigan up to pull-up jumpers and isolation plays that have given the defense problems. The blitz approach tends to concede catch + shoot jumpers on skip passes and roll-man layups because our low-man rotation is not a big. 

Personally, I prefer the drop coverage approach as that scheme is less likely to put Dickinson in foul trouble. However, I do think the best philosophy is deeper than that.

College coaches are generally married to a system/singular approach and don't budge from that. Whereas NBA coaches typically have a different approach to every game depending on matchup. I think the NBA approach is probably optimal for this Michigan team. Against MSU for example, drop coverage was clearly the answer as Hoggard/Walker are basically non-shooters. Against a team with guys that convert pull-ups at an adequate clip, the blitz approach may be more ideal. 

The bench, in general. Terrance Williams, Brandon Johns, Kobe Bufkin and Frankie Collins are putting up 16 points a night on roughly 42 minutes per game as a unit in conference games. To be candid, that 16 point mark is a mirage. That average is weighed heavily by Williams' 22 point outburst against Nebraska in December and Johns going for 20 in the same game in the starting unit. 

Exclusive of the aforementioned December game, the bench is around 10ppg as a unit. That simply won't cut it if Michigan is going to make a serious run for the tournament. We need one of the bench guys to be around 7-11 points for any given game and a total closer to 20 points. We're simply asking too much of the starters. We just need one reliable bench option.