Go up, gasballs [Patrick Barron]

Stargazing: September 2020 Defense Comment Count

Seth September 9th, 2020 at 11:40 AM

Offense is here as well as an explainer, so we can just dive in. There wasn't a lot of movement on this side actually.

DT target Jay Toia (CA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#21 DT), #24 CA 5.8 (#21 DT), #28 CA 5.8 (#20 DT), #27 CA
ESPN 83 (#7 OG), #178 OVR 83 (#7 OG), #178 OVR 83 (#7 OG), #177 OVR
247Sports 92 (#8 DT), #170 OVR 92 (#11 DT), #175 OVR 92 (#11 DT), #170 OVR
Composite 0.9243 (#11 DT), #189 OVR 0.9236 (#13 DT), #189 OVR 0.9243 (#13 DT), #178 OVR
Avg Stars 4.25 4.23 4.24

Nothing's changed for the planetary longtime USC commit whom ESPN still ranks as an offensive guard. A 4.24 is exactly what Mike Martin's recruiting average ended up as. Moving on.

DT target George Rooks (NJ)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#8 SDE), #123 OVR 5.9 (#8 SDE), #123 OVR 5.9 (#10 SDE), #129 OVR
ESPN 83 (#22 DE), #207 OVR 83 (#22 DE), #207 OVR 83 (#22 DE), #206 OVR
247Sports 88 (#21 DT), #6 NJ 88 (#23 DT), #6 NJ 88 (#23 DT), #5 NJ
Composite 0.9207 (#12 DT), #202 OVR 0.9207 (#14 DT), #202 OVR 0.9199 (#14 DT), #196 OVR
Avg Stars 4.20 4.19 4.19

Just like a few of the guys on offense we've got a guy Rivals thinks is a top-150 prospect whom 247Sports is leaving in the 3-star range. This time ESPN is on the side of Rivals, and 24/7 is ranking him at a different position.

Again I think this is more about how they do the rankings at these sites than a disagreement over the player. Rivals tends to rate guys more on how ready they are to play now, while 24/7 tries to project guys to the NFL. In this case neither is doing Rooks any service because he's projected to gain a bunch of a weight and play inside; 24/7 is downrating him because that takes a lot of projection, and Rivals is uprating him because he looks a lot like a strongside end already.

DT target Rayshaun Benny (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#14 OT), #83 OVR 5.9 (#15 OT), #86 OVR 5.9 (#16 OT), #90 OVR
ESPN 79 (#36 OT), #41 MW 79 (#36 OT), #40 MW 79 (#36 OT), #43 MW
247Sports 91 (#21 OT), #192 OVR 91 (#21 OT), #198 OVR 91 (#21 OT), #196 OVR
Composite 0.9239 (#20 OT), #191 OVR 0.9227 (#20 OT), #194 OVR 0.9224 (#19 OT), #186 OVR
Avg Stars 4.18 4.17 4.16

There's a lot of disagreement here over a player everybody seems to agree Michigan needs to reel in this cycle. The only thing they do agree on in fact is they're ranking him at offensive tackle, which he's already said that's not what he wants to play in college.

Rivals again likes the Michigan guy the most, putting him in their top-100 and holding him there. 24/7 has him in their top-200 but it's notable he's stayed in it as they added a bunch of players, meaning those two spots up he moved are probably more like 20.

DE/DT commit Dominick Giudice (NJ)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ
ESPN 72 (#115 DE), #150 East 72 (#122 DE), #159 East 72 (#163 DE), #199 East
247Sports 80 (#82 WDE), #43 NJ 80 (#95 WDE), #43 NJ 80 (#107 WDE), #45 NJ
Composite 0.8161 (#71 WDE), #1400 OVR 0.8160 (#83 WDE), #1509 OVR 0.8160 (#94 WDE), #1817 OVR
Avg Stars 3.19 3.19 3.13

This looks like a slide when it's standing in place. A 5.4 from Rivals is the designation for guys they haven't seen and probably won't evaluate, with 5.5 being the placeholder for someone they intend to look at. ESPN shoved him down when they added a bunch of players, though it's notable it includes 40 players from his region. The 24/7 ranking however is unchanged, as you can tell from the New Jersey ranking barely moving. Other DTs with this profile in the since-1990 Michigan database are no fun: Shawn Lazarus, Marques Walton, Renaldo Sagesse, Brady Pallante, and Paul Sarantos. Of them only Lazarus (who was 6'3"/245 as a recruit) was any good.

DE commit Quintin Somerville (AZ)

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via Rivals, which has been holding sorta steady

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#5 WDE), #151 OVR 5.8 (#5 WDE), #151 OVR 5.8 (#7 WDE), #160 OVR
ESPN 84 (#12 DE), #107 OVR 84 (#12 DE), #107 OVR 84 (#12 DE), #106 OVR
247Sports 93 (#9 SDE), #104 OVR 90 (#18 SDE), #4 AZ 90 (#19 SDE), #4 AZ
Composite 0.9557 (#9 SDE), #102 OVR 0.9348 (#14 SDE), #152 OVR 0.9336 (#14 SDE), #151 OVR
Avg Stars 4.47 4.32 4.30

The drop for Somerville from 24/7 this summer was covered when he committed but to rehash, Somerville was a prospect who popped early, was a five-star as his class was first being rated, and then failed to be taller than 6'1", which meant every long-armed freaky person in his class got to pass by. That landed in solid four-star territory, if outside the top-247. It's encouraging that it hasn't dropped more. ESPN was in lock-step in March when their eval went up and they haven't checked back. A few more guys have passed Somerville on Rivals, but the site that likes more college-ready prospects still really likes Somerville's college-ready-ish package. FWIW Taco and Wormley both ended up about where Somerville is, coming from opposite directions.

DE commit Kechaun Bennett (CT)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#13 WDE), #1 CT 5.8 (#12 WDE), #1 CT 5.8 (#13 WDE), #1 CT
ESPN 80 (#39 DE), #49 East 80 (#39 DE), #50 East 80 (#41 DE), #48 East
247Sports 89 (#25 SDE), #1 CT 89 (#26 SDE), #1 CT 89 (#27 SDE), #1 CT
Composite 0.8932 (#21 SDE), #324 OVR 0.8925 (#21 SDE), #329 OVR 0.8925 (#22 SDE), #333 OVR
Avg Stars 3.99 4.00 3.99

Exactly no change on Bennett, whom everyone seems to agree is right on the four-star line. Previous Michigan Edge recruits right around that line are interesting because those above it (Jeremy Van Alstyne, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Ron Johnson, Chris Rogers) mostly didn't work out while those just below (Mario Ojemudia, Patrick Kratus, David Ojabo, Jaylen Harrell, Chase Winovich) did or are on track to.

DE commit TJ Guy (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.5 (NR SDE), #8 MA 5.5 (NR SDE), #9 MA 5.5 (NR SDE), #8 MA
ESPN 76 (#86 DE), #106 East 76 (#88 DE), #109 East 76 (#103 DE), #115 East
247Sports 87 (#31 WDE), #5 MA 87 (#33 WDE), #5 MA 87 (#33 WDE), #5 MA
Composite 0.8553 (#44 WDE), #784 OVR 0.8552 (#49 WDE), #817 OVR 0.8552 (#47 WDE), #863 OVR
Avg Stars 3.48 3.48 3.48

There's still no shift in Guy's rankings, and the 5.5 from Rivals makes me think there never will be despite EJ Holland going out there and seeing a future Kwity Paye. The 87 from 247Sports is actually more like a 5.7 from Rivals or a 79 to ESPN so they're the outlier. FWIW Kwity rose to a 3.66 which put him with Frank Clark, Josh Uche, Chris Rock, John Thompson, and Gabe Newburg. The next tier, where Guy is, has Reuben Jones, Brent Blackwell, Greg Banks, Rondell Biggs, Quintin Woods, and Mike Danna.

Viper Commit Junior Colson (TN)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#4 OLB), #80 OVR 5.9 (#3 OLB), #83 OVR 5.9 (#2 OLB), #87 OVR
ESPN 83 (#18 OLB), #184 OVR 83 (#18 OLB), #184 OVR 83 (#18 OLB), #183 OVR
247Sports 92 (#13 OLB), #182 OVR 93 (#9 OLB), #158 OVR 93 (#8 OLB), #156 OVR
Composite 0.9448 (#10 OLB), #126 OVR 0.9476 (#8 OLB), #116 OVR 0.9473 (#9 OLB), #123 OVR
Avg Stars 4.40 4.41 4.42

I've been expecting a bump for Colson and we're getting very incremental but noticeable ones. Remember recruiting gravity should drop guys down the rankings as a few prospects blow up. Somehow Colson is slowly sliding up while not getting anything that could actually be called a reevaluation. He's one of Michigan's few recruits playing this season so it's still possible he finishes a consensus top-100 type, but being a safety-linebacker tweener I think 247Sports isn't comfortable raising him any higher lest they look worse against NFL draft data in five years.

My rankings for hybrids don't go as deep; at 4.42, Colson would be second to Peppers but by a lot. The next closest is Stevie Brown, who wound up at 4.32 after dropping from an early five-star. LBs from that range include Larry Foote, Cam McGrone, Carl Diggs, and James Ross.

LB commit Jaydon Hood (FL)

image

Also in this future Marvel Studios has reacquired the rights to the X-Men. [Aaron Bills]

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#38 ATH), #72 FL 5.7 (#35 ATH), #70 FL 5.7 (#15 ATH), #56 FL
ESPN 83 (#5 ILB), #191 OVR 83 (#5 ILB), #191 OVR 83 (#5 ILB), #190 OVR
247Sports 88 (#17 ILB), #52 FL 88 (#16 ILB), #54 FL 88 (#19 ILB), #53 FL
Composite 0.8981 (#12 ILB), #292 OVR 0.8981 (#11 ILB), #298 OVR 0.8981 (#12 ILB), #300 OVR
Avg Stars 3.96 3.96 3.99

Here's another linebacker recruit whose small rise means more than the few hundredths of a star suggests. Specifically he went up 20 spots among athletes in the Rivals database and 14 spots in their Florida rankings. Part of that I'm sure is the big push Miami and other schools are making to flip Hood. Part of it too is Rivals reclassified a handful of athletes to their expected positions. I keep expecting Hood to rise at least to a four-star but nobody's bit yet.

Michigan's had a ton of ILBs right around four stars, from Devin Bush at 4.04 through Ian Gold, Chris Graham, Isaiah Bell, Damon Southward, Sam Sword, Cobrani Mixon, Antonio Poole, Osman Savage, Marcus Walker, Jarrett Irons, and Steve Morrison. Some of them weren't legends.

LB commit Tyler McLaurin (IL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#27 OLB), #11 IL 5.7 (#30 OLB), #12 IL 5.7 (#30 OLB), #12 IL
ESPN 78 (#44 OLB), #54 MW 78 (#44 OLB), #55 MW 78 (#48 OLB), #58 MW
247Sports 88 (#37 OLB), #11 IL 88 (#37 OLB), #11 IL 88 (#35 OLB), #13 IL
Composite 0.8776 (#27 OLB), #426 OVR 0.8776 (#28 OLB), #443 OVR 0.8776 (#28 OLB), #465 OVR
Avg Stars 3.76 3.76 3.75

No change. History: Charles Thomas, Joey Sarantos, John Spytek, Elysee Mbem-Bosse, Kaleb Ringer, Taylor Hill, Brandin Hawthorne.

LB Casey Phinney (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.5 (NR ILB), #7 MA 5.5 (NR ILB), #8 MA 5.5 (NR ILB), #7 MA
ESPN 74 (#31 ILB), #141 East 74 (#32 ILB), #149 East 74 (#44 ILB), #171 East
247Sports 85 (#30 ILB), #7 MA 85 (#31 ILB), #7 MA 85 (#35 ILB), #7 MA
Composite 0.8444 (#39 ILB), #1036 OVR 0.8444 (#41 ILB), #1078 OVR 0.8444 (#49 ILB), #1183 OVR
Avg Stars 3.40 3.40 3.38

Here's another low-end recruit nobody's reevaluated since his Michigan commitment. That's notable only in the macro because it used to be these kinds of guys got a Michigan bump. It's not really that notable because the Michigan interest bump is already in effect, and when they all looked they saw the lowest level of three-star and a teammate of Drew Kendall, who's a top target. If Kendall does drift away due to COVID and depth chart concerns it'll be interesting to see how genuine Michigan's interest in Phinney was.

For the record, Desmond Morgan and David Harris were in the 3.4s and Obi Ezeh was a 3.37.

S commit Rod Moore (OH)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.7 (NR S), NR OH 5.7 (#22 S), #15 OH 5.7 (#31 S), #16 OH
ESPN 78 (#28 S), #49 MW 78 (#28 S), #49 MW 78 (#28 S), #52 MW
247Sports 89 (#21 S), #10 OH 89 (#29 S), #11 OH 89 (#28 S), #13 OH
Composite 0.8809 (#22 S), #388 OVR 0.8809 (#29 S), #408 OVR 0.8809 (#31 S), #429 OVR
Avg Stars 3.86 3.88 3.85

Another almost imperceptible shift that caught my radar. The Rivals drop may just be from the addition of ATHs to the safety ranks (safety, CB, and WR tend to get the majority of these re-designations), but he also fell a slot in Ohio. He was unranked to them not so long ago. I did also notice 247 bumped him up a spot in the safety rankings while moving him down among Ohians. I played around in the rankings but couldn't figure out what that meant.

Oddly Michigan's historic safety recruits tend to clump around 4.00 and 3.75. If Moore's a 3.9 he's with Chuck Winters, Marcus Ray, and Vlad Emilien. If he's sub-3.8 you get into J'Marick Woods, Keston Cheathem, Artis Chambers and Jon Shaw.

S target Daymon David (MD)

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Them's Caris arms (via Hudl)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals   5.4 (NR S), NR MD 5.8 (#22 S), #12 MD
ESPN   no profile no profile
247Sports   88 (#47 S), #19 MD 88 (#45 S), #17 MD
Composite   0.7909 (#NR S), #1161 OVR 0.8900 (#22 S), #346 OVR
Avg Stars   3.51 3.85

I don't have a snapshot of David from March because he wasn't on my radar back then but I think it's fair to say he wasn't on many. His 247 rating debuted in May and has slipped upwards a bit since then. Rivals didn't have him ranked back then but recently shot him to a four-star. This is what I mean when I say most guys drop a bit because someone else was evaluated:

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He's a low 4-star—the 25th safety and the 15th guy in Maryland are 3-stars, while the #15 safety still doesn't crack the Rivals 250. But a four-star! ESPN…still hasn't made a profile for him. That's sort of understandable—David was listed at 160 when 247 created his page last December. His recruitment took a turn for the weird recently; I'll cover that in crootin later this week. He's already a win for the scouting department, for whatever that's worth.

CB target Ceyair Wright (CA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#5 ATH), #100 OVR 5.9 (#3 ATH), #100 OVR 5.9 (#6 ATH), #95 OVR
ESPN 84 (#8 CB), #109 OVR 84 (#8 CB), #109 OVR 84 (#7 CB), #108 OVR
247Sports 94 (#7 ATH), #67 OVR 94 (#8 ATH), #71 OVR 94 (#7 ATH), #69 OVR
Composite 0.9633 (#7 ATH), #82 OVR 0.9654 (#5 ATH), #71 OVR 0.9663 (#5 ATH), #69 OVR
Avg Stars 4.57 4.59 4.58

The ATH rankings are throwing off the latest slow-rollin' California CB recruitment. Michigan's still on the outside looking in on this one but that always seems to be the case going into the season with whatever Leon Hall, Donovan Warren, David Long, or Darion Green-Warren they're chasing when they *really* need a new cornerback recruit.

You probably don't need a reminder of our 4.5-star cornerback recruiting but here it is anyways: JT Turner, Jeremy LeSueur, Ambry Thomas, Markus Curry, Greg Brooks, Boubacar Cissoko, Ty Law, and Jourdan Lewis.

CB commit Ja'Den McBurrows (FL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#27 CB), #58 FL 5.7 (#30 CB), #66 FL 5.7 (#35 CB), #65 FL
ESPN 76 (#62 CB), #310 SE 76 (#64 CB), #322 SE 76 (#75 CB), #383 SE
247Sports 85 (#90 CB), #117 FL 86 (#62 CB), #89 FL 86 (#66 CB), #89 FL
Composite 0.8633 (#46 CB), #628 OVR 0.8667 (#46 CB), #604 OVR 0.8667 (#51 CB), #633 OVR
Avg Stars 3.64 3.67 3.64

The only jump came last spring from 247, who notched McBurrows up in their three-star hierarchy but then only to where ESPN already had him. Rivals again is the highest. Previous cornerback recruits in the 3.6s and environs include Johnny Sears, Eamonn Dennis, Channing Stribling, Woody Hankins, Jeremy Clark, Vincent Gray, Brandon Watson, and James Rogers.

K/P commit Tommy Doman (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals   5.5 (NR K), NR MI 5.5 (#2 K), NR MI
ESPN   no rating no rating
247Sports   80 (#2 P), #64 MI 80 (#2 P), #64 MI
Composite   0.8165 (#1 P), #1507 OVR 0.8165 (#2 P), #1811 OVR
Avg Stars   3.25 3.22

Punter rankings are meaningless. Previous specialists ranked #1 or 2 at their positions were Hayden Epstein, Nate DeLong, Quinn Nordin, and Zoltan the Inconceivable.

The whole crew:

Here's the table I'm working from if you want to see where the changes were.

image

And if you want to compare how the different sites have guys rated.image

And a bonus from the future

2022 DT commit Alex VanSumeren (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020
Rivals NR (NR DT), NR MI NR (NR DT), NR MI 5.8 (#9 DT), #173 OVR
ESPN no profile no profile 81 (#10 DT), #242 OVR
247Sports not available 90 (#21 ATH), #193 OVR 90 (#18 ATH), #232 OVR
Composite not available no ranking 0.9192 (#18 ATH)#221 OVR
Avg Stars 4.11 4.24 4.20

 

Comments

Blake Forum

September 9th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^

Anyone watching Junior Colson’s most recent film should easily see a top 100, possibly top 50 player. Dude has somehow gotten noticeably faster. And folks, he was already fast