The Red Button
10/7/2023 – Michigan 52, Minnesota 10 – 6-0, 3-0 Big Ten
A couple years ago I watched Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since the paleolithic era and I couldn't really commit emotionally. I fundamentally could not let myself believe they would win. This feeling extended into the distance; even after it was clear they were going to win I did not feel the same kind of thing it appeared other people were feeling all around me.
The same thing happened last year. While I've made the argument that the postgame success rate/"it was just five plays" takes were bad, it is true that the nature of the game lent itself to believing OSU was far better down-to-down, at least through 30 minutes. Michigan was bleeding OSU down the field and relying on their short-yardage deficiencies to prevent points; Ohio State was maniacally determined to not let Hassan Haskins 2.0 happen to them. So you're watching this and it feels like Michigan is hanging on by a thread. Only in the aftermath do you realize that Ohio State decided to throw it to their tight end 30 yards downfield on fourth and two and played zero coverage on which two Michigan players could have scored easy touchdowns. Meanwhile OSU has the #2 pick in the NFL draft and Marvin Harrison Jr, etc., etc.
Michigan felt like an underdog.
Michigan is not an underdog anymore, to anyone, after comprehensive dismantlings of mid-tier Big Ten teams that featured Jack Tuttle snaps in the third quarter. It is deeply unfortunate that Georgia woke up after a sleepy start to the season and hamblasted Kentucky, because otherwise it would not appear that any team in the country is anywhere near Michigan. Other teams have bits and pieces: USC has Caleb Williams, Penn State has an elite defense, Ohio State still has Marvin Harrison Jr. But USC's defense can't do anything, Drew Allar has the lowest depth of target in the Power 5, and OSU just ran for 1.9 yards per carry against Maryland.
But, yeah, Georgia. And maybe Oklahoma. Michigan is a complete team but seems to lack a game-wrecker on def—
Let’s see how Mason Graham’s doing with that cumbersome club on his hand after missing the last 2 games.
— Due# (@JDue51) October 8, 2023
Dear God. pic.twitter.com/kjU7fe4kz8
Oh. Mason Graham is the #2 DT in the country to PFF, and he's a true sophomore, and he's wearing a club, and he's getting better every time we see him. You could say similar things about Derrick Moore, and maybe Josiah Stewart. On offense Michigan is settling into what looks like the long term answer on the OL. Hiccups in the secondary have another month to get smoothed over.
Michigan is this good, and it still feels like they've got another gear. If Corum gets back to where he was, if the arc read game comes back in important spots, if Derrick Moore continues to Ojabo, if Rod Moore gets all the way back, etc. These are usually the ifs you have when you're scuffling a bit. The ifs you have when you're undefeated but haven't played anyone and escaped a close one against a Nebraska or a Minnesota. It is almost literally impossible for a college football team to play better than Michigan… but Michigan can play better.
I have unlatched all the gates and pressed the button that says DO NOT PRESS UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. I glance over to Ohio State getting outplayed badly by Maryland until Maryland Marylands itself, and look at the teams across the nation and I think "Michigan can take these guys." It is possible that by the end of the season that everyone proclaims is wide open, it turns out it wasn't that wide open after all.
Just four more weeks of waiting before we start finding out for real.
AWARDS
Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week
[Barron]
![-2535ac8789d1b499[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/537fc4d56c20_9177/-2535ac8789d1b4991f1c37dee-a502-44d9-94ed-bee425f87474.jpg)
#1 Mason Graham. Led the team in tackles as a DT. Had a thunderous, drive-stalling TFL and two sacks, one of which he was robbed of by a horrendous spot. Seems like breaking his hand has only made him more powerful. Ol' Murderglasgow is ascending to Mo Hurst tier.
#2 JJ McCarthy. A casual 10 YPA despite three drops, plus two rushing touchdowns where he juked tacklers, stiffarming one to the turf. Apparently did not get a sideline kiss, though, so there are areas for improvement.
#3 Will Johnson. Only did two things but the first thing was a tone-setting pick-six.
Honorable mention: Probably should throw in Kalel Mullings here for cumulative short-yardage success and a mansome blitz pickup. Keon Sabb also had a pick six. The Offensive Line kept McCarthy clean and led Michigan to 5.8 YPA. AJ Barner continues to mash face. Cornelius Johnson had a drop but also a circus catch on a deep ball, plus his blocking was improved. Josiah Stewart is getting after it.
KFaTAotW Standings.
(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)
27: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minnesota)
22: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Nebraska)
13: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn)
11: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers)
9: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska), Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb)
7: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV),
5: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers)
3: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers), Will Johnson(#3 Minn), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn)
2: Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Derrick Moore (HM Neb), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn), The Offensive Line (HM Minn), Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn)
Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week
Will Johnson picks off the second snap from scrimmage, more or less ending the game 12 seconds in.
Honorable mention: Pin and pull goes for 40, hooray explosives; Johnson hauls in a deep ball, hooray explosives. Sabb pick six. Mason Graham death squirrel sack. Leon Franklin gets his touchdown.
MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.
PJ Fleck's insane clock management at the end of the first half is rewarded with a longshot touchdown.
Honorable mention: Johnson drops a third down conversion so Michigan has to settle for a field goal. Minnesota outside zone does some work on the first two drives.
OFFENSE
[Barron]
The Mason Cole. When Cole was a tackle his standout trait was an ability to get blocks absurdly far downfield, and when Barnhart moved to tackle we kept talking about him like he'd be Cole. That was instantiated in this game when Barnhart got to the left edge of the field, from right tackle, on the long pin and pull.
Uhhhh. JJ McCarthy did something I complained about last year: he pulled the ball in the low red zone. I complained about this because doing this against zero coverage, which it always is inside the five, means that McCarthy is going to get an unblocked DB every time. And, yes, he got an unblocked DB both times. He then scored both times.
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=467
On the first he was fortunate to come up against a guy who's missed almost a quarter of his tackle attempts this season. On the second he got a redshirt freshman reserve corner who has missed a quarter of his tackle attempts this season. I guess you take the W against a team that can't tackle, but if we try this against PSU or OSU it's not going to work.
Dive stuff. Minnesota stuffed the Michigan dive by pinching their DTs and placing edge guys just outside of the zone where Michigan bothers to block. They then converted, but on a rollout pass that feels a touch risky. I'm sure they'll put in some tweaks/audibles to adjust if they get looks like that again; just kicking out the edge guy and blocking down on the pinched nose is an easy conversion. Speaking of that rollout pass…
Mullings, woo. I was pretty nervous* when that rollout happened and Michigan tossed a ball to a former linebacker who had not caught a pass at Michigan, but Mullings smoothly brought it in and turned it upfield like he does it every Saturday.
*[about Kalel Mullings's 2024 Heisman campaign, not, you know, the outcome of the game]
Hello again. Michigan pulled out the ol' pin and pull this week; I think they ran one of these last week but that was the first of the year.
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=181
Pin and pull has been a staple the last few years as a way to attack the perimeter, but the outside zone experiment saw it drop out of the playbook.
[Barron]
Zippity zip. Michigan converted a second and thirteen after one of their exceedingly rare TFLs suffered by dumping the ball down to Edwards and watching him make a linebacker look foolish. The endzone cam shot of this is going in the UFR because it really emphasizes how Edwards's crazy acceleration got him past the LB to the outside when it looked like the inside was going to be more profitable, yards-wise. I'd say Michigan should do this more often, except that everything they do is something they should do more often because it all works. (Except outside zone.)
Shots. Michigan took some in this game after a season largely eschewing them.
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=308
A second shot was to Frederick Moore and incomplete as the ball was pretty short, but as Todd Blackledge pointed out if Moore actually attempts to high point the ball he gets run over and a flag comes out.
The dearth of true deep shots is fine. Teams are choosing to bracket Wilson, leading to the festival of deep ins that are high-percentage chunk plays. This team has better things to do than try a bunch of sideline fades.
Block of the week, probably. Multiple people have already reached out to declare this Mullings blitz pickup decleater to be block of the week and they're probably going to be right:
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=493
That does not happen on blitz pickups. Usually the running back is fighting a losing battle against mass times acceleration. Kalel Mullings is not losing that battle.
The main competitor to this block is Barnhart getting on his horse on the pin and pull, but the pure visceral oomph of the Mullings block is probably going to win out.
Drops. We got five weeks into the season before our first drop-type substance. It was unlikely that the entire WR crew had turned into Jason Avant at the same time, and half of McCarthy's incompletions in this game were flat drops. Johnson had the drive-ender on Michigan's first possession; Edwards had a drop on another third and five. Meanwhile the above Loveland attempt looked like the safety dislodging the ball live, but on replay it was clear that Loveland was going to lose that ball without the intervention of the safety.
Michigan's still excellent in this department. McCarthy is 9th amongst P5 QBs when it comes to drop rate suffered, and PFF has Michigan for five drops this season; we have a difference of opinion on one. Also of note: Michigan is 14/22 on contested catches, which is a big step up from last year.
McCarthy? I mean, yeah, he did the things. Four of his incompletions were either drops or a missed opportunity from a freshman WR. A fifth was a pressured throw over Corum's head, and the sixth was a fade down the sideline on which the defensive back had definitively won the route. I do wish that McCarthy had come off of Moore on the coulda-shoulda PI, because Minnesota had busted huge on a Wilson drag route that was going to go for at least 30 yards.
Bill Connelly writes on McCarthy's quiet efficiency:
Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is No. 1 in QBR at 93.6, ahead of Heisman favorites (Michael Penix Jr. is second, Caleb Williams eighth) and sleepers (Dillon Gabriel is third, Jayden Daniels fourth). He's third nationally in completion rate, behind two guys (Oregon's Bo Nix and Florida's Graham Mertz) who average far fewer yards per completion. Nearly two-thirds of his completions (63%) go for a first down, and nearly one-fourth (22%) go for 20-plus yards. Not including the three sacks he has taken in six games, he's averaging 9.1 yards per carry on the three or so rushes per game he's compelled to take.
Give him those numbers with Penix's or Williams' volume of dropbacks, and McCarthy is a pretty clear Heisman favorite. A co-favorite at worst. But his 22.2 dropbacks per game are the lowest of anyone in the QBR top 15 and second-lowest, behind only Louisiana's Zeon Chriss, of anyone in the top 35.
Note that QBR is opponent-adjusted.
[Barron]
Henderson watch. I don't think I caught a single pass protection issue in my rewatch, and he performed on the ground. It feels like the wheels are going to have to come off for him to lose the job. Michigan did play Hinton in Tuttle Time, so he's healthy enough to reclaim the job if he plays better. Also he's not going to redshirt.
Feels like this competition is over and Michigan has gotten to more or less the preseason expectation after a strange detour.
DEFENSE
Rutger watch. Michigan scored 52; Minnesota had 52 passing yards. I asked Patrick if this counted as a Rutger and he said no, it has to be fewer, but Michigan had 64 return yards on interceptions. When you have more INT return yards than they have passing yards that's an Iowutger. I have spoken.
[Barron]
Weekly hey they got some yards. Minnesota's first couple drives featured successful runs, which was briefly disorienting because I have become very spoiled by this defensive line. Most of these were outside zone. This was fairly typical:
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=106
So 1) motion sucks Hausmann out of the box, 2) Sainristil is sitting in the RPO slant zone and 3) Colson just appears to screw up. This means the DL gets no support; Benny and Grant both lose, but in Benny's case he's never winning on a stretch play when the guys trying to combo through you never have to stop the double team.
Michigan decided they'd have to live with the RPOs and got more aggressive about this after the early success, whereupon Minnesota stopped running effectively. Michigan did get got on one RPO that was going to be wide open but got a bat-down to bail them out.
it happens [Barron]
The other thing. A touchdown yielded:
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=428
We had an extensive discussion on the podcast about this where it was asserted that Keon Sabb needed to get over the top of this, which I get somewhat because he's got nothing in his area, but looking at it again this is only a yard or two from the sideline. IMO, Sainristil just got beat. Not by much—he's a few inches away from a PBU—and I might not even ding the coverage if I was grading this. But it would be a pretty dang good play for Sabb to get over there.
getting better rapidly [Barron]
New guys popping. Josiah Stewart did some stuff last week that we had to grade on the Corcoran curve, but here he is giving a bull rush to the Minnesota left tackle:
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=290
That's Aireontae Ersery. Before this game had as many superfluous vowels in his first name as pressures yielded. FF had him for just three, with no sacks. Here he gave up two sacks on just 22 dropbacks; even after that PFF is grading his pass blocking as an 80. It appears that this is the season where any player we offer some mild critiques of immediately improves, so we've got that going for us.
Also of note is Derrick Moore getting to Kaliakmanis at about the same time on about the same rush.
[Barron]
The bats. Another game in which Michigan batted down a couple passes. This is a Braiden McGregor specialty at this point; his long arms and excellent timing have made him a menace on short balls and screens for a couple seasons. He's going to get a pick. I feel it.
Cam Goode: doin' stuff? Goode had an instant pass rush up the gut that Kaliakmanis was able to turn into an improv first down, but he continues to rotate in like Michigan expects he'll be useful in the season-ending gauntlet. He had 14 snaps and has been between 12 and 21 in every game.
PFF items. Michigan has the #2, #6, #16, and #69 defensive tackles in the nation. That's Graham, Jenkins, Grant, and Goode, respectively. They haven't been wild about Benny and they've probably been right. They have the #15, #23, and #55 edges—Moore, Harrell, and Stewart—and they're way down on McGregor despite our grading being very good. The back seven doesn't have anyone grading out of this world but if Johnson and Rod Moore get back to last year's numbers they'll be amongst the best in the country.
Also, some of the back seven grades are based on air. Paige has a 53; he's missed one tackle and given up two catches for 35 yards on four targets. He's had nothing to get graded on.
Walker back. 11 snaps for Amorion Walker, which is encouraging after there were some rumors he would be out for most of the season. He's obviously not going to press for real time this year but having him practice full go and get out there for extended Tuttle Times over the next three weeks will be useful.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Meh? Turner grooved a field goal down the middle; Doman keeps booming punts; returns were unremarkable. Michigan has fallen down the FEI special teams ratings to 43rd. The specialists are fine, but McGregor fumbling a kickoff sees them 130th in kick return efficiency and the two-headed punt return is pretty bad at 92nd.
If I was Jay Harbaugh I'd be demanding a Donovan Edwards punt return crash course.
MISCELLANEOUS
Buddy. You've got a big sign and you're scribbling out a message like it's a prescription for Ryan Day's Xanax.
[Barron]
You gotta pump up that font size, that's rookie font size.
What is your problem with spotting the ball? The number of flatly incorrect spots in this game was at least six, none more infuriating than this obvious sack getting taken away from Mason Graham:
https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=392
This was adjudged to be second and ten. (One dollar to the PFF grader who counted this as a sack despite the spot. Virtual fist-bumps.) Earlier, a clear second-and-goal touchdown was marked down after a debatable first-and-goal touchdown was also marked down, and somehow Donovan Edwards ended up two yards past the sticks on a play that was ruled down short of them.
Comprehensive. Yowza:
Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 9, 2023
Net Success Rates in Week 6 pic.twitter.com/h4JfiZ8GOk
Also look at the far left: GT, Iowa, and USC all won.
Penalties: we decline. Max Bredeson's holding call in Tuttle time was the first time Michigan had taken a penalty aside from a kick out of bounds in almost two weeks. That's nuts. Michigan leads the country in fewest penalty yards per game, although the sheer lack of plays in Michigan games is a factor. There's a reason the top 5 includes Iowa, Army, and Air Force. FWIW, MSU is 118.
Larger picture. Still #1 in SP+. #2 behind Oklahoma in adjusted EPA per play:
Note the Penn State offense hanging out with Nebraska. Also, Iowa. You can see MSU just behind the Utah logo; they're hanging in surprisingly well on defense.
HERE
Between rule changes and the lack of serious things to complain about, it has been a mellow season generally, at least to the present.
How mellow, you ask? No, you probably didn't, but all the same, I will tell you.
Last night, using the efficiency ratings that I somewhat scientifically devised, was the most mellow we've been in a relatively calm season (again, to date - we've got six games yet, some of which will likely be a bit dicey at points). As I mentioned last week, anything in the 2.50 to 3.00 range generally means a comfortable, low-complaint victory in the Harbaugh era, but ECU and Minnesota sit far below that. I never really thought much about how to label the sub-3.00 games, but these might be described as the ones where, as John U. Bacon states, you might mow your lawn, but in a good sense.
Best: Efficiency
I know I mentioned earlier that Michigan’s offense is currently #8 in the country per SP+, and as fans you’ve watched these games and see how good both the rushing and passing attacks have been. In terms of raw numbers, they have a TD rate in the red zone of 78% and have scored 21 TDs in 28 chances, which is tied for 8th in the country. For the past 2 weeks they’ve been a perfect 10/10 in scoring when they’ve gotten to the redzone, picking up 8 TDs and 2 FGs over that span. They’ve only run 358 plays on offense over 6 games, which is one of the lower rates in the country, but they’re averaging nearly 7 ypp each time they do snap the ball, which is #18 in the country and mostly behind a bunch of Pac-12 teams and schools like FSU and LSU who have been in a lot of defense-optional games. They’re averaging over 5 ypc despite shuffling around the offensive line, while also averaging 10 ypa in the air, #7 nationally and behind, again, some Pac-12 teams, LSU, and some academies who throw the ball a handful of times a game (though to Army’s credit they throw the ball nearly 16 times a game while confusingly-named Air Force throws the ball…4 times a contest).
Futility Rate
Me, above: “their offense still occasionally moves forward and scores points.”
This graph: “the word ‘occasionally’ is doing a lot of work in that sentence, buddy.”
Question: should missed field goals count as turnovers or 4-and-out? I’ve included them in the latter.
According to CFBD, there are just six FBS teams with an offensive explosiveness score less than 1.30 (lower is worse) and a defensive explosiveness score greater than 1.50 (higher is worse): Akron; ECU; Marshall; JMU; Florida; and Michigan. Respectively, those teams were ranked 121st, 102nd, 62nd, 58th, 36th, and 1st in F+ through Week Five (as I post this, we’re still waiting on the “through Week Six” rankings to be posted).
However, there are inversely just three teams with an offensive explosiveness score greater than 1.50 and a defensive explosiveness score less than 1.30: Kentucky; Brigham Young; Georgia Tech; and Old Dominion. Respectively, those teams were ranked 24th, 51st, 82nd, and 100th in F+ through Week Five.
(In the graph below, the X-axis measures offensive explosiveness and the Y-axis measures defensive explosiveness. You can find Michigan's block M near the top center of the graph, uncomfortably close to the bad top-left corner.)
To me, though, the only conclusion we can draw from this data is that explosiveness is a very bad predictor of how good a team is. Think about it this way: if a team runs 50 plays in a game, and only one is “successful” (positive EPA), but it’s so successful it scores a +5.00 in EPA, then that team’s explosiveness score is 5.00. But if a team runs 50 plays in a game, and 40 of those are successful, but each one is only +0.50 EPA, then that team’s explosiveness score is 0.50. Which team is better? The team that had 80% of their plays be successful, or the team that had 2%? Assuming the team with an 80% success rate put together at least one touchdown drive and one field goal drive (at the very minimum), there’s a pretty clear answer.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Actually, this guy seems to be a pretty good dude. He's apparently known as "Big Nut" and has taken all the money he received from appearances and stuff and distributes them as scholarships to his local area high schools and has started an endowment fund at osu. He's also a pretty generous guy when it comes to interacting with other fans.
The jackhole you're thinking of is known as "Buck-I-Guy" with an emphasis on the "I." He's the one who showed up to Earl Bruce's funeral and signed a poster intended for former players and coaches - you know, the people who actually knew and meant something to the family. Apparently, he's also not well-loved among the osu community. He seems to be a jerk and totally self-centered and self-absorbed.
October 9th, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
I did not know this about the Big Nut. He seems like a real stand-up guy. Giving out scholarships to students is admirable.
October 9th, 2023 at 6:43 PM ^
My brother sat behind Big Nut 2 years ago. Said he wasn’t a bad dude. The good thing about sitting by Big Nut is that you are getting some screen time because the camera always finds him a few times per game.
October 9th, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
"...because the camera always finds him a few times per game." Therein lies the genesis of my hatred* of this man. All those years of Michigan losing to an Osu led to way too many shots of this guy in his stupid get-up celebrating and being smug. I just wanted to punch the teevee whenever he popped up on screen. I know it's irrational but that's sports fandom.
*I don't actually hate the guy, I sports hate him. Sports hate does not equate to actual hate, which ain't cool. He's probably a good dude, unless he drives a lifted F150 with truck nuts.
October 10th, 2023 at 8:12 AM ^
I don't actually hate the guy, I sports hate him. Sports hate does not equate to actual hate, which ain't cool.
Unfortunately this is not my experience anymore. Pretty much anything -- including violence -- is justified and even valorized in the name of winning, or to avenge a loss.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
What a fun game. I got to go, and it was an absolute trouncing, and it was great.
That Minnie TD made me mad for a couple of reasons: 1. it validated what was otherwise a late-half strategy of pure cowardice, and I liked the idea that Michigan was so intimidating that opponents were trying to run the game out before halftime. Also: 2. It was the only time that Minnesota's passing game wasn't totally shattered by Michigan's defense. Literally every other pass play, including the small handful of completions, was an exercise in terror for them. Rare have been the times I've seen a B1G QB so absolutely panicked every time he had to drop to pass.
This is such a fun team. The best part is the dominance and the winning, of course, but it's also really likeable. You've got elite players that are fun to watch, and guys like Corum and Zinter who came back when they could have gone pro. We don't have a dominant back-7 defender, but as Brian observes maybe we have our all-everything defensive start at DT.
And then you've got JJ, a magnificent QB who is just all kinds of fun on and off the field. I love that he's the first guy out there in the fourth quarter cheering on the backups, that he trades good-natured jibes with Harbaugh during warmups.
And he wins.
In past years we would look at those low attempts and attribute them to Harbaugh playing run-first conservative, but that's not the case at all. Between clock rules and Michigan being dominant, the game is basically over 40 or so snaps in on offense.
I'm right with the heart of the article here. It's hard not to think big thoughts here. There's no equivocating about it: This team might be the one.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
Was at the game as well, and while the end of half TD made me mad because it ruined the "only giving up single digits" streak, it was very well played by Fleck. Everyone, including Michigan thought Minnesota was going to try a short pass to get them into better field goal range. Instead, Fleck went for the deep shot when no one expected it. As you pointed out, it was the only time all game the MN QB wasn't immediately pressured. That's because the LB's dropped to cover the middle and the DL basically played contain against a QB run. One of the reasons Sabb couldn't get back to help Sainristil was because he was initially focused on the middle of the field despite both LB's immediately dropping.
In a game where Michigan thoroughly and completely out played, out coached, out everything Minnesota, give Fleck & the Gophers credit for that one.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Exactly!
October 9th, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
But you are missing the point here. You note that Sabb was checking the middle of the field along with the Linebackers. That is problem #1. That is NOT a Safety's responsibility. Second, within the first second of the play, it was very apparent there was only 1 receiver on Sabb's side of the field and he took off on a fly route.
Sabb should have immediately got on his horse and get over the top of the 1 and only receiver on his side of the field. Again, look at this screen shop I took of the play. Note where the other Safety is...3 yards on top of Minnesota's receiver that ran the exact same mirror fly route. Sabb missed his assignment, Minnesota took advantage of it and the WR made a great catch. Lesson learned and move on...
October 9th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
it was very well played by Fleck.
Well, it worked out for him. But if it had fallen incomplete - a likely proposition, given that Minnesota passed for only 17 yards (!) all game outside of that play - they would have been forced to attempt a 52-yard FG.
He could have just as easily run the same play with 30 more seconds on the clock, and if it had been incomplete, Minn would have time to do something else that drive.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
Running the clock down all the way so when we ended up taking a knee when we got it back we were left with less time? What was he thinking?
October 9th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
When you are down 24-3, running down the clock should not be your priority. Especially when your opponent gets the ball to start the second half.
October 9th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
Anyone know how to do a reverse /s? I was being serious why was he trying to leave us less time to take a knee? Has he not seen Harbaugh coach up multiple scores?
October 9th, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
Same play with 30 second on the clock probably would have ended with a sack the way Michigan was collapsing the pocket all night.
His kicker had already hit a 50+ yard field goal into the open end of the stadium. This was going towards the closed end with the wind.
This is why I'm guessing this may have actually been purposeful strategy. Look like you are leading to one action and surprise them with an unexpected different action. If it doesn't work out, you still have a shot at the 3 points.
October 9th, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
That might make sense in a closer game, but down 21 points, with their defense offering little resistance, getting a field goal wasn't going to do them a lot of good.
Minnesota desperately needed a TD to stay in the game. Fleck's clock management left them with, at most, two shots at the end zone from 35 yards out. With a QB who averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per attempt (including that play), that's not a great situation to find yourself in.
October 9th, 2023 at 8:08 PM ^
That’s the point. They needed a TD and running the regular offence wasn’t going to get it done. Fleck’s only hope for the TD was to do something unexpected.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^
Yep, I graded it a -6 play, with -2 Sainristil for getting beat, -1 Sabb for not getting over, +2 hat for perfect pass, good route, great catch, and -1 RPS for not having enough coverage over top.
Sainristil said in Avant interview after game that Coach Minter tried to take it on him for not giving more cover over top, but Mikey said nah on me for getting beat
October 9th, 2023 at 4:11 PM ^
Not that I have any business grading anything, but I do read a lot of UFR…and this is what I imagine Seth doing 🧐
October 9th, 2023 at 7:00 PM ^
Harbaugh said it was on the coaching, that they should have been playing contain.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
I think you're right, but that doesn't validate the strategy. Their kicker obviously had the leg for 52 -- heck, his 54-yarder would have been good from 55! ;)
With the obvious caveat that hindsight is 20/20, the correct play call there is the anti-Hail Mary defense. If they want to throw a 5-yard out, fine. If they want to attack the middle of the field, give it to them! The clock will run out. The only meaningful play they could run there is a Hail Mary. Sabb should not have let the one guy in the pattern get behind him -- but also Michigan should have been lined up in a 4-1-6 with four deep safeties or whatever. :)
October 9th, 2023 at 8:37 PM ^
No, I can't give Fleck credit here. Mikey's a great player but with so little time left in the half you can't leave anyone singled up. Maybe Sabb busted but the defensive call should have had a softer zone. Yes, this is easy to think based on results, and the team is so great that we're nitpicking. We do need enough to keep the players striving to get better through this mediocre at best schedule. I do wonder if November might be a shock to the system.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
Last year Michigan had tight games or tight first halves against everyone in the big ten not named Nebraska. Even Iowa and MSU, while they felt comfortable, were not blowouts until later in the 4th. Remember Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers. That's why it feels different this year.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
That has been my biggest takeaway so far this season. Most games last season there was very little doubt that Michigan would eventually win. They had proven themselves to be a second half team.
Now they are coming right out of the tunnel ready to punch mofos in the mouth.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
If JJ doesnt get to make out on the sideline by the 3rd quarter, the season is a failure, harbaugh should be fired and the terrorists really have won.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Im tracking with Brians feelings too. Only recently have I really started to believe Michigan has really taken a step forward to elite. I was so sure Lucy was gonna yank that ball away but since OSU last year, I believe
Michigan can win the national title this year. Theres no one out there I don’t think we couldnt beat. Now will we? I wont believe it till it happens but this is the best Michigan team in 25 years at minimum
October 9th, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
Michigan is there. They have all they need. They can win it all.
The rest, unfortunately, is up to luck. You have to be lucky to win. Don't get me wrong, you have to be good, but good+lucky beats good+unlucky. I love football but football is stupid. Stuff happens. Crissakes we once lost our running back to a forklift.
A forklift!!
If Michigan doesn't win the national title this year, it won't be for lack of talent or want-to. It might be because NCAA refs are corrupt and terrible, because they always are. It might be because a worthy opponent emerges and just beats them. It might be because the coaches outthink themselves and call a terrible game. These are all possibilities, but there's probably at least a 50% chance that if Michigan is denied, luck just went "nah" and something incredibly stupid happened.
October 10th, 2023 at 6:54 AM ^
Yes. But bad luck and 1% events affect elite teams less than it affects good ones. Look at all those incredibly amazing passes caught and 4th down conversions the 2021 OSU team had against Michigan. Do you remember how crazy their success rate was in the second half on those types of plays?
And it didn’t even matter because Michigan was that much better.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
Does your name "lhglrkwg" stand for "like having good luck regarding kissing with girls"?
October 9th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
I'm not sure how intelligent clock management is pure cowardice. You do realize that Fleck's job is to coach his team to scoring points as well as preventing Michigan from doing the same, right?
I'm guessing Michigan will be challenged before the ohio game.... Its highly unlikely to be Indiana or 'lil bro.... but Purdue, PSU or Md could very much give us a run and keep the game much closer than we'd all like it to be, like IL did last year. Such is the game of football.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
You do realize that Fleck's job is to coach his team to scoring points as well as preventing Michigan from doing the same, right?
The issue is: When you're down 21 points in the first half, going out of your way to prevent the other team from having another possession before the end of the half should be much lower priority than giving your team the best chance to actually score a touchdown. Once you're down 21, preventing the other team from scoring only matters if you actually put some points on the board yourself. But Fleck seemed to be content to settle for a field goal with one low-probability shot at the end zone when he should should have done whatever he could do to give his team the best chance at scoring a touchdown. You're down 21, you need to score a lot of points!
But then the low-probability shot at the end zone worked, and he was rewarded for his poor strategy.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
so his plan included either scoring a TD or kicking a FG and if either failed, NOT giving Michigan the ball with a chance to score again... they scored a TD.... down 21 and kicking a FG would have you down 18, better than 21 and a lot better than 28.
terrible strategy? probably not, coaching decision hoping to make adjustments at halftime without being down further than you already are.
14, 18 or 21 is easier to come back from than 28. especially knowing Michigan was starting the 2nd half with the ball.
Sorry dude, the coach is better at his job than you are.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Your basing your explanation on results, not process. Sometimes poor strategies end up working out, this does not mean the strategy was good. Sometimes optimum strategies don't end up working, this does not mean the strategy was bad. Fleck's strategy ended up working out this time, that does not mean it was good.
And we've seen plenty of coaches who are better at that job than me execute terrible in-game strategies. Mario Cristobal knows way more than me about coaching football, but I think I can say his end-of-game strategy last week was terrible. Fleck knowing more about coaching than me, but that does not mean every in-game strategy he executes is above criticism.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
His explanation made perfect sense to me, and it worked exactly as he hoped it would.
We can disagree, but the guy did exactly what he was hoping to do while preventing from happening exactly what he was hoping to prevent.
I suspect he didn't think they were out of the game and he and his staff had some half time adjustments that would find them doing better against Michigan in the second half.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
You're still focusing on the results rather than the process. The criticism is about the process: the things he did actually gave him a relatively low chance of actually getting the results he wanted, doings things another way would have actually given him a better chance to get the results he wanted. But you're ignoring that because the lower probability route ended up working this time.
Like, imaging if I gave you a chance to make a free throw for $1000, or shoot a half-court shot for $1000. Clearly, choosing the free throw would give you a better chance at wining the money. But PJ Fleck chose the half court shot, and you're defending the decision because he made the shot against the odds.
Sometimes bad strategies end up with good results. That does not make the strategy smart.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:42 PM ^
The coach did the perfect thing here. Instead of moving the ball ahead to the 30 yard line or closer he decided to run the clock down for either a hail mary type play or an nfl type kick! Brilliant!!
Not to mention this gave us less time to run our kneel down (which we wouldve done no matter what unless we got the ball back past the 35 yard line). Again brilliant.
Dont let the chuck and duck fool you that was horrific clock management. How is there a "for" in this argument??
October 9th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Kicking a field goal down 21 points is bad strategy. If you succeed, you are still down 3 scores. Scoring a TD should have been Fleck's priority one.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
Fleck was watching the same game we all were
October 9th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
If you're down 7-0 in softball* in the 4th inning, there is no point in changing pitchers or making a defensive change. The time for that was before the 7 (assuming you could have predicted the future). No point in changing what you're doing defensively to 'stop the bleeding' until the offense scores a run.
I can see where Fleck's logic is coming from, but his premise is moot. If you want a chance to win that game at 24-3 going into the Half, you have to figure out how to SCORE 24 points. Preventing any more is putting the cart before the horse. Not to mention, does one think Michigan is going to use 77 seconds to go from 24-3/6/10 to 31-3/6/10? OSU? Maryland? Maybe. Michigan, however, runs out the last min to get to halftime up 2-3 scores.
*(I'd say baseball, but pitch count is, for some reason, a concern for ppl these days)
October 9th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
PJ Fleck had no idea what he was doing. He was not scared of Michigan nor was he executing a master plan. He did not know what the hell to do so he just called timeout before the clock ran out because taking a delay of game would have looked extra stupid.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Bahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! Good been do be eh the d St D's eh to!!!!!!!!!! Hey guys r by FB FYI f SH he eh he hey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 9th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
Booted Blue… in PA?
Defending Fleck's clock management?
Folks, we have found Frames Janklin's burner account. Well played, sir. Good luck in Columbus in two weeks. ;)
October 9th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
I was 'watching' this game via the ESPN score app as I had a date night with the Mrs and I have to say it's so relaxing not being freaked out thinking the other shoe is about to drop and the bad things are going to happen. THEY DON'T HAPPEN to this team! Such a joy to follow this group.
On another note, everytime I read "Tuttle Time" my mind immediately jumps to this kid's book my first born son LOVED. It's called Turtle Time and towards the end there's a portion that begins,
"Turtle time, turtle time,
a little song,
a little rhyme..."
I can't not hear that in my head EVERY SINGLE TIME!
October 9th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
Then there's the rarely noticed other verse:
a little song
a little dance
a little seltzer
down your pants
October 9th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
I could never purposely miss a Michigan game. I did have to watch the Rutgers game on dvr, when my daughter had a band thing. I hope it was an anniversary or birthday or something. I guess I’m lucky, my wife would never ask me to miss a game.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
Thank you for doing this!
The graphs are wonderful. It is clear that if Iowa had a mediocre offense, they could play in the Big Ten East.
Thank you for pointing out where MSU was hiding on the graph. The Double U logo seemed like horseshoe prints as if some massive horse had stomped on it.
That long TD pass that got behind the defense was simply a great play - a fluky great throw as we saw the Minn QB not come close to that level, and a beautiful catch. If that is what it takes to beat the Michigan defense deep - I'm fine with that and with other teams trying.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
I love this.
When I am dominating at Tecmo Super Bowl, I run into a problem: I want dish out some glory, but there aren't enough stats to go around. Like if I'm getting Detroit to the Superb Owl, Barry Sanders will lead every rushing category with ease. But with the loaded teams like Houston or SF? Everyone's a winner but there's only one ball. To get 3-4 receivers on the leaderboards, and your starting RB, you have to win every game by 40-50 points and that gets tough to do late in the season when the computer starts cheating like crazy.
Ohio State has this problem. They're a glamour team that basically plays football to get ridiculously talented debutantes shiny awards and high draft picks, which attracts more ridiculously talented debutantes, feeding the cycle. As such they do extraordinary things to get players into the Heisman ceremony. But this approach has downsides; their current QB isn't experienced because they kept Stroud in blowouts last season, and they focus so much on passing that they can't run the ball.
Michigan is not going to send anyone to NYC, not because no one is deserving, but because they're not that kind of team and Heisman voters are complete fucking idiots. (Seriously, in all of history only one defender wins the award? You twits have absolutely no idea how football works.) They have a murderdeathkill at almost every non-ST position (Zinter, McCarthy, Corum, Loveland, Wilson, Graham, Johnson) and still-very-good options wherever they don't. They're pulling starters in the second half. There's only one ball, and the team isn't playing to send anyone to NYC. They're playing to crush you.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
Why don't they yield to reality and change the name to Hype-Man QB Trophy?
October 9th, 2023 at 5:30 PM ^
Get Flava Flav to hand out the trophy? It'd be epic!
October 10th, 2023 at 7:00 AM ^
Detroit to the Superb Owl is the most awesome autocorrect I have seen in a long time!
October 10th, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
Nah, that was 100% manual. Deliberately misspelling Super Bowl into Superb Owl was a long-running inside meme on a site community I used to frequent.
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