Preview: Ohio State
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (13-13, 6-8 B1G) vs Ohio State (19-7, 8-5) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 1 pm ET, Sunday |
| LINE | Ohio State -6 (KenPom) |
| TV |
CBS PBP: Kevin Harlan Analyst: Bill Raftery |
THE FUTURE
Before diving into the preview, let's take a look at next year's Big Ten schedule breakdown, which was released by the conference today:
Michigan Men's Basketball 2016 Big Ten Opponents
Home/Away: Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue
Home: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern, Rutgers
Away: Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin
On the plus side, it's a relatively favorable schedule. Michigan's toughest home-and-home is, uh, Iowa? Maryland? While the road-only slate is rough, that's a schedule set up for making a run.
From a fan's perspective, however, it sucks that we won't see Ohio State or Nebraska in Crisler next year; ditto trips to the Breslin Center or Assembly Hall.
THE STAKES
At this point, it's NIT bubble watch time. DRatings dropped Michigan from a two-seed to a four-seed in their latest update. The Bracket Matrix had the Wolverines as a six-seed before the loss to MSU. A loss to the Buckeyes won't bump Michigan from NIT contention, but a victory would make the stretch run a lot less daunting.
THE LAST TIME
Ohio State wallopped Michigan, 71-52, in Columbus. The Wolverines couldn't slow down freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell, who tallied 21 points and six assists, and they only managed 0.83 PPP even with LeVert and Walton in the lineup.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | Shannon Scott | Sr. | 6'1, 185 | 79 | 20 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Great defender, facilitates offense well, still not much of a shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 0 | D'Angelo Russell | Fr. | 6'5, 180 | 90 | 29 | No | ||||||||||||
| Volume scorer. Great outside shooter, even off dribble. Solid passer, too. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 12 | Sam Thompson | Sr. | 6'7, 200 | 88 | 18 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Ridiculous hops. Very good finisher. Not a good shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 1 | Jae'Sean Tate | Fr. | 6'4, 190 | 59 | 21 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Excellent on the boards, good finisher, active defender. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 23 | Amir Williams | Sr. | 6'11, 250 | 43 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Effective finisher, good rebounder, blocks lots of shots. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 2 | Marc Loving | So. | 6'7, 215 | 51 | 19 | No | ||||||||||||
| Losing role/PT to Tate, but still shooting above 50% from three. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 15 | Kam Williams | Fr. | 6'2, 175 | 32 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
| Efficient scorer sticks mostly to spot-up threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 55 | Trey McDonald | Sr. | 6'8, 240 | 23 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Very good rebounder, especially on offense. Decent rim protector. | |||||||||||||||||||
THE RESUME
While the Buckeyes have only won twice on the road—against Northwestern and Rutgers—since they last faced Michigan, they haven't been an easy out away from home; losses at Purdue and MSU came by a combined five points. They've easily handled all challengers at home since their Big Ten opener against Iowa. At 8-5, they're at the back of the group pushing for second place behind Wisconsin.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The preview from the first matchup is here. Little has changed since then. D'Angelo Russell continues to push his way up draft boards—as high as #2 behind Jahlil Okafor—with his exceptional scoring ability and impressive passing. He's joined in the backcourt by Shannon Scott, a great defender and solid passer who's not much of a scorer.
Sam Thompson is sure to punctuate an Ohio State run with a Sportscenter-worthy dunk; he's also strong on the defensive end of the court. Freshman Jae'Sean Tate has emerged as a Novak-sized power forward who's much better suited to the position; he's a ball of energy who's tough to stop around the rim. Tate replaced Marc Loving, who recently served a three-game suspension for undisclosed reasons, in the starting lineup.
Amir Williams remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in the body of an NBA center. His numbers look decent on paper, he drives Buckeye fans nuts with his turnovers and lapses in concentration, and he plays less than you'd expect for a player with his size and talent. Trey McDonald is an uninspiring but passable backup center, while Anthony Lee—who briefly replaced Williams as a starter—has missed the last couple games with a groin injury.
When games have been close, especially of late, Thad Matta has gone with a very short bench, giving almost all of the available minutes to his starters.
THE TEMPO-FREE
To demonstrate OSU's consistency, I'm just gonna edit the last preview:
The Buckeyes boast the #21 #22 offense in the country due in large part to some impressive shooting numbers: they're seventh eighth in two-point percentage and 32nd 39th from beyond the arc, though their outside shooting has gone cold during Big Ten play. They take care of the ball and crash the boards pretty well; if there's a weakness, it's that they don't get to the line very often.
OSU's defense forces the seventh-most 16th-most turnovers in the country—which helps fuel a solid transition game—and they block a ton of shots. They've shored up their two-point defense significantly over the course of the Big Ten season, but they remain weak on the glass, allowing the third-highest OR% in the conference.
THE KEYS
Pray zone works. Michigan is coming off an awful defensive performance against MSU that knocked their defensive efficiency down to 11th in the B1G; most alarming about that game, each of M's three defenses—man, 2-3, and 1-3-1—failed to slow the Spartans. I'm not optimistic M can go man-up on Russell and slow him down. Collapsing on him with the zone—one that'll have to extend to make sure Russell doesn't have room to shoot threes—is probably M's best bet, albeit one that leaves them susceptible to Slam Thompson lobs and Tate/Williams putbacks. Pick your poison.
Protect the rock. Even after their switch to man-to-man, Ohio State has been very proficient in forcing turnovers, and they're a really good transition team when they do so. Michigan has to be careful with the ball and at the very least avoid live-ball turnovers that OSU can turn into instant offense. Going up strong around the hoop will be key—the block-steal combination has led to more than one highlight-worthy Sam Thompson fast break throwdown this season.
Take charge, somebody. The search for a go-to guy continues, and if Michigan doesn't get somebody to step up in a big way, it's tough to see them keeping pace with OSU. Zak Irvin has slowly added to his arsenal, and while his progress hasn't been as rapid as most hoped, it's progress nonetheless; if he can build on that, or MAAR can capture whatever causes him to go off in every game against MSU, M has some hope of pulling the upset.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Ohio State by 6.
Losing the ability to guard anyone just before facing the best perimeter scorer in the conference doesn't bode well, I'll say that much.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. John U. Bacon on John Beilein and how the best coaches do some of their finest work with their worst teams:
Bo Schembechler always said the best coaching job he’d ever seen was from Ara Parseghian, at Northwestern, in 1957. Were the Wildcats national champs? No. Big Ten champs? No. Northwestern that season lost every single game.
This has been a nightmare season for reasons largely out of Beilein's control, but I really hope that hasn't led people to think Beilein isn't still a great coach.
February 20th, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^
Just -6 huh?
February 20th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^
D'Angelo Russell future 76ers PG... I wonder if he's worth the hype over Mudiay for Tankadelphia.
The last OSU guard broke my heart as a Michigan fan then got me furious beyond belief as a 76ers fan... Fuck Evan Turner...
:(
February 20th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
At first last night' deadline moves by the Sixers had me saying WTF about 5 times over before I realized that dealing MCW to the Bucks and KJ McDaniels to Houston probably weren't as bad as they first appeared.
MCW can't shoot, is inefficient, very turnover prone, and had his stats inflated due to being the guy on a shitty team. KJ only had a 1 year deal and Hinkie would probably not match it when he becomes a RFA, so he gone.
What we got out of this was Isaiah Canaan (who the hell is that), Lakers' 1st rd T5 protected 2015 and T3 protected 2016 pick and a second rounder. So now we have 4 1st round picks in 2015 alone and a slew of 2nd round penny stock picks. Not to mention we've got a crap load of future picks beyond 2016 all the way up to 2020....76ers are the only team to have more than 1 pick in teh 2020 draft so far...
Hinkie and Brown are going all in on Embiid being the next Olajuwon, and they're looking for a PG to complement him. This PG will have to be able to score at will when needed to, so that's either going to be Russell or Mudiay from this draft (or maybe even Tyus Jones from Duke).
At this point everyone is expendable except Embiid, Saric (who's still in Europe), and maybe Noel if he can develop offensively. I don't expect the Lakers to finish outside of the T5 b/c they're also tanking, so that 2016 pick will be quite the gamble. I hope that pick ends up being a top 10 pick b/c the Lakers have a lot of cap room with Randle returning plus their 1st round pick from this year... so I hope they don't do too well in FA this year so they can suck just enough for it to be worth while for the Sixers.
I think Hinkie is looking for the home run superstar duo to build around and just hasn't found his PG yet. Hopefully he does this year. If that is Russell, then I'm fine rooting for him b/c he didn't crush my soul in the B1G Tournament yet like Turner did my freshman year... bastard.
February 20th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^
Yeah if this all works out and the Sixers start contending for a decade long stretch after a couple years, then Hinkie might as well be Billy Beane reincarnated in basketball form.
February 20th, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 6:31 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
February 20th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
But I thought they really crushed the trade deadline. They got solid return on MCW who is years away from being a starting PG on a team that can win. He'll be an overpaid free agent well before he is ready (if he ever is) to be a significant asset. They were right to move on.
McDaniels is fun and promising, but wasn't going to stick around. Somebody will overpay him for his potential and the Sixers are wise to keep their options open until they know what/who to build around.
The McGee trade is brilliant. They got assets out of free money (salary they would have to pay anyway since they were under the floor.)
It isn't much fun to watch these guys right now, but the payoff is coming. I'd MUCH rather be a Sixers fan than a Pistons fan.
February 20th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
Pistons had a solid day themselves. Reggie Jackson will probably resign with them b/c SVG and he will mesh well imo. Then you guys can either move Jennings or do something like what Phoenix does with duo PGs starting. Drummond will be legit, and if you can keep Monroe that's even a better core to build around.
At least you guys aren't rebuilding the rebuild LOL.
February 20th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
Meh, their GM has a history of overpaying for average to below average vets that 'fit' on paper but quickly turn into liabilities. It's VERY difficult to build through free agency unless you're Miami, LA, etc.
The reality is that Jackson could be a rental. Though the restricted free agency does help, with all the money coming onto the market somebody is going to overpay Jackson and there is a good chance that somebody is the Detroit Pistons. The trade all depends on what they do with Jackson going forward. But they gave up almost nothing of significance so it's a worthwhile flyer to see what you might have in Jackson. The answer is very likely "below average NBA starting point guard."
Jennings has his issues, but he's a higher upside player than Jackson IMO. If you're going to be a 4-out/1-in team Jennings is actually a pretty good fit.
The Jennings-Jackson backcourt would be an interesting one to experiment with but we won't get to see it this year.
The danger with this year's pistons team is that both Jackson and Monroe are auditioning for free agency and are likely to be playing for someone else next year.
The Pistons do have Drummond to build around and that is meaningful. I think I would prefer to have Embid/Saric/Noel and a boatload of picks, but that's me. Right now they are striving to be a playoff team, while the Sixers are aiming to be a title contender. I generaly prefer the latter.
February 20th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
I want to believe UM can pull this game off, but Russell is just really scary offensively. Nobody beyond him is overwhelmingly terrifying, but of course the same could have been said for Nik and UM last year.
Sadly, it does seem like there is a vocal minority who are doubting Beilein, typically focusing on his "poor" recruiting compared to some platonic ideal of Michigan basketball recruiting that gets NBA draft picks who inexplicably don't leave.
February 20th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^
Be good at something
February 20th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
Forgive my ignorance...but what is "SIBMIHHAT" and acronym for?
February 20th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three?
February 20th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
The 2-foul strategy has cost Michigan badly at times this year and the collapse against Illinois looked like the coaches got baffled as well. Beilein is a good coach, but his shit stinks too
February 20th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
has not had his best year, either. He has clearly been frustrated and at times, seemingly a little distracted. That Illinois game was the first time in a long time where I came away thinking that JB just got out-coached. I know he has had to try to do more with less this year, but he has seemed a little bit "off" to me. Even from his remarks regarding the "start-time" of the Villanova game, he hasn't really seemed like the Beilein I have come to know this year.
February 21st, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^
February 22nd, 2015 at 12:27 AM ^
The coach is putting the player on the bench to avoid putting the player on the bench.
Sometimes it's a good move to put the player on the bench and other times it's not. Beilein always puts the player on the bench. It's a bad policy.
(FWIW, a lot of other coaches are heavily criticized for utlizing the same policy. It's conventional coaching wisdom but there's no evidence that it actually has any benefit, although there's an undeniable downside.)
February 20th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
Well, with regards to next year, we do have a trip to Assembly Hall! (NTAH)
Wait, they renamed Not-That-Assembly-Hall to "The State Farm Center"?
Boo-urns
February 20th, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^
Disappointing season but far from a nightmare. Too many good memories and positive developments for the future mixed amongst the disappointments and injuries.
Positive takeaways from the season:
- Early seasons games were fun (Syracuse, Oregon, Villanova - team's peak performance of the season IMO)
- Resilience in going toe to toe with Wisconsin, MSU, Illinois, etc. after all the injuries -- tough losses but man did I enjoy the games and was rooting my heart out for those guys
- MAARs offensive explosions against MSU. Fan fave and just flat out fun to watch when he's on.
- Dawkins 3-rain against Illinois
- Dakich's burned RS
- Spike's offensive wizadry (too many examples to list)
- Irvin's continued evolution from just-a-shooter to something much more -- I think next year he'll be the excellent player many expected him to be this season
- Bielfeldt stepping up into a much bigger role than almost anyone anticipated
- LeVert stepping up capably to being Option A despite all the departures
- Promising post game from Doyle
- Michigan developing into a shape-shifting flexible mutli-zone defense
- Austin MFing Hatch
February 20th, 2015 at 3:29 PM ^
Let's just sweep them in hockey and basketball.
February 20th, 2015 at 3:53 PM ^
I hate to be "that guy" but I am, for now. I was at the State game on Tuesday and I realize that we're young but damn. We didn't have much jump in the second half with the exception of 3 minutes near the 7 minute mark.
I get that they have Trice, Valentine, and Dawson with their experience but at home I expected a better showing. Not sure I can sit through the OSU game.
February 20th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^
I'm very cranky right now, and I know we've had some injuries this year, but even so, how do we make the Finals and the next year be 5th last team standing, and still recruit like ass while teams like Ohio continue to crush is in MBB recruiting... Only thing I can think of is Beilein runs such a clean program there isn't enough slime to attract the top talent that wanst to get paid. I am talking out my ass, as I have no data upon which to stand, other than just befuddlement at how poorly we recruit MBB talent and how aside from McGary, all our talent is under the radar "finds" that Beilein coaches up...
MSU has a football recruiting ceiling because it just isn't a blue blood program, although Dantonio has done a nice job of pushing that ceiling as high as it will go, but with Michigan in basketball? Despite the years of endless pain post Fisher, with 4 finals appearances in the last 25 years I figured we had a higher recruiting ceiling in bball than State does in football.
/rant over
February 20th, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^
5th in the nation in back to back seasons is a fucking good ceiling. Have we ever done that? How often? Once in 30 years? 40? This ceiling stuff is garbage - TCU has the same ceiling as MSU as does Baylor. One stupid series vs Notre Dame and MSU would have been undefeated in 2013 and in the NC game. I'd be very pleased with a ceiling of going to the NC game and losing.
Yes they were not quite there in 2014 but please with this ceiling crap. All it takes is one or two breaks a year and teams that have 11 wins can be 13 win teams in an instant.
February 20th, 2015 at 5:49 PM ^
Good luck team!!
February 20th, 2015 at 7:15 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 7:55 PM ^
Is to echo Brian's football coverage -- "predictions are stupid"
February 20th, 2015 at 8:23 PM ^
Amir Williams must be floating in his saliva as he awaits this game. I looked over his stats and he rarely hits double digits - which is sad for a 6'11 center. He basically has done it vs a lot of mid majors... and Michigan. We could use an Amir Williams - dont care about offense, just protect the damn rim and make someone - anyone- think twice about going to the basket. Oh and grab some rebounds.
February 20th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^
February 21st, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
It's just too bad no one thought to re-hire Jim Harbaugh right before every single home basketball game. I think the adrenaline alone would have made us undefeated at Crisler.
February 21st, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
Are you sure you're not confusing Amir Williams with another team's center?
February 23rd, 2015 at 5:08 AM ^
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