Preview: Indiana 2019
Essentials
WHAT | Michigan vs #9WIndiana | |
---|---|---|
WHERE | Memorial Stadium Bloomington, IN |
|
WHEN | 3:30 Eastern | |
THE LINE | Michigan –9.5 | |
TELEVISION | ESPN | |
TICKETS | exist | |
WEATHER |
light rain petering |
Overview
I have good news and bad news about Indiana. Bad news: Juan Harris has retired from football. Good news: this clears the way for Harris to transfer to Iowa in the offseason.
Also in bad news: this is probably the best Indiana team Michigan has seen in a long time. The Hoosiers sit 20th in SP+ with a top-15 offense and a top-40 defense. Much worse Indiana teams have pushed Michigan to the brink. Only Michigan's vast reserves of heartbreaking ways to beat Indiana and Northwestern but not Ohio State have kept Michigan's decades-long win streak intact.
Back to the good news: still a 9.5 point spread.
[Hit THE JUMP for the best Indiana team in a minute]
Run Offense vs Indiana
M gashed IU for 5.1 YPC last year [Upchurch]
IU's defense got a lot better when Tom Allen arrived, first as DC and then as head coach. They've never collected the level of talent you need to have an elite defense, but for Indiana to transform its D into "consistently not bad" is one of the country's more underrated coaching achievements.
This year… eh, they're not bad. They sit 34th in SP+ overall and haven't gotten outright clunked by anyone aside from Ohio State. On the other hand, MSU put up 40 points and 453 yards. Indiana shut out Rutgers and held Northwestern to three points; PSU, Nebraska, and Maryland all had between 28 and 34. They're not bad; they're not particularly good when you get out of the absolute dregs of CFB offenses.
This is reflected in their rush D stats. MSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Penn State—ie, all of their Big Ten opponents who aren't beyond horrible or OSU—combined to average 4.8 YPC once you delete sacks. This is thoroughly mediocre. Seth asserts they've got an Uche type who plays every down:
Opposite Head is a good counterfactual if Michigan were to play Uche every down, or perhaps just a good example of what Pierre Woods would be if he played at Michigan today, named Michael Ziemba (+12/-7). Again, I think the roster data lie: he's probably 240-something, tall, lengthy, wiry, and dangerous as hell on a straight edge rush … When asked to play inside gaps or hold up to T/TE doubles he gets tossed five yards downfield, hence the demi-cyan.
They've also got a 330-pound nose tackle who is not Juan Harris who doesn't hold up to doubles, which makes you wonder about the point of a 330 pound DT.
IU throws a lot of guys across the line of scrimmage to make up for some personnel deficiencies that would otherwise result in a steady diet of five and six yard runs, gets a fair few TFLs, and gives up moderate chunks when their blitz gets blocked up. They've got a Don Brown style defense with a couple of virtual safeties at LB and a jet of a MLB; this will be a situation where Michigan can probably get some chunk plays by sending folks the wrong direction.
As for Michigan's side of this, they've been increasingly diverse as the season's gone along. Against MSU the ground game was mostly around to keep the Spartans honest, but notably it included no pin and pulls—a midseason staple—and a bunch of iso action featuring Ben Mason thundering at linebackers. The prior game against Maryland featured a ton of gap-blocked counter plays and relatively little pin and pull.
I'd expect Michigan to continue to stick and move with their ground approach, but predicting exactly what's going to come out of the bag is difficult. At this point it's possible they could amalgamate all the stuff they've done in short bursts and ask Indiana to defend the kitchen sink. Except stretch plays.
KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DOUBLES vs BLITZ PICKUP. Michigan's been pretty good at identifying linebackers when they fling themselves across the LOS; doing that here against Indiana's pretty light back seven is likely to pry open the front and send backs to the secondary.
Pass Offense vs Indiana
can be some wide open guys [Bryan Fuller]
Here too Indiana is decent and only decent. They were of course the team that held Rutgers to one(1) passing yard. They also obliterated Northwestern. In games against even semi-functional passing attacks they're slightly on the bleah end of the spectrum:
- OSU: 17/29, 214 yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT
- MSU: 18/36, 300 yards, 8.3 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT
- Maryland: 17/27, 210 yards, 7.8 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Nebraska: 20/23, 294 yards, 12.8 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
- PSU: 11/23, 179 yards, 7.8 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
Their 23 sacks are—yep—exactly average amongst Big Ten teams.
One guy who is not merely decent is their top corner. Allen unearthed another hidden gem of a cornerback in Tiawan Mullen, a true freshman who's emerged into the star of the Hoosier secondary. In Indiana terms Mullen was a pretty good recruiting win. He ended up just outside of the top 500 on the composite; Indiana got him away from Nebraska, Kansas State, and Pitt. Then they inserted him directly into the starting lineup, with excellent results:
Tiawan Mullen has been another impactful freshman this season in college football! pic.twitter.com/WMKkxpZvbP
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 13, 2019
That's a week old but Mullen's passer rating when targeted didn't change much after PSU; he's fifth in that stat amongst true freshman nationwide, and some of the guys ahead of him aren't getting every snap.
Indiana's issue is that you need more than one guy in the secondary and the other options are middling at best, with a blender at CB opposite Mullen and question marks at safety. They also get zero pass rush from their DTs so getting to the QB requires a lot of blitzing and or getting Uche wins from Ziemba. Michigan has been somewhat vulnerable to the latter—but at the rate of two or three times per game—and has been stellar at picking up blitzes.
This adds up to a situation where Patterson is likely to have time and his choice of non-Mullen secondary members to throw at. Prior to the last few games this would be an easy Patterson's-gonna-obliterate-em call, because when he's given time and open guys he usually deals, but his up-and-down accuracy (injury-induced?) over the last few games is a little worrying.
Michigan's stick-and-move approach of late should probably see the wide receiver screens end up less prominent. Indiana sees a ton of them in practice and will spend chunks of time this week worrying about their application. Could be time for a double move off that action, though.
KEY MATCHUP: MAYFIELD AND RUNYAN JR vs INDIANA DEs. Seth liked James Head along with their Uche type, but if Michigan can contain those two guys Patterson should have a ton of time.
Run Defense vs Indiana
Scott is 230 and runs like it [Eric Upchurch]
This is still the Stevie Scott show. He gets the lion's share of non-QB carries—his backup, freshman Sampson James, has 3 carries all year in competitive games—and remains the same leg-churning YAC dude he was a year ago:
When he gets into the secondary the results are very De'Veon Smith. Seth:
RB Stevie Scott (+4.5/-3, 4.79 YPC and 9 TDs this year) [got] to 4.5 the hard way: a pile of half points doled out for churning would-be 2nd and 10s into 2nd and 8s. The negatives he accumulated for spurning gaps frontside gaps without people in them for more chances to burrow into linebacker chest cavities.
Getting to the fishing village has not happened much against the higher end of the schedule. IU barely bothered with Scott against OSU, running him six times for nine yards. Against MSU and PSU he managed 120 yards on 35 carries, 3.4 a pop; Michigan is a bit worse than OSU and PSU in run D and a bit better than MSU; those four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the league.
Scott is not a homerun threat. Amongst Big Ten schools only Purdue has fewer 20-yard runs than Indiana; IU is also down the list in ten-yard runs. Michigan leads the conference, and the country, in fewest ten-yard runs allowed. Unless there's an out-of-character bust by Michigan success or failure will be determined by the number of second and eights versus the number of second and fours.
Should be noted that IU does run their quarterback with frequency. Ramsey's only played about half of Indiana's snaps and is still their second-leading rusher with 212 yards on 42 non-sack carries. 5.0 YPC is not a great return for getting your QB hit, and Ramsey patently lacks open-field ability. But Indiana will keep Michigan's keep defense honest in an effort to generate a crack for Scott.
Indiana goes empty a lot against the higher end Ds on the schedule so this might be more of a sideshow than anything. Seth charted some interior weakness; this is a line that Carlo Kemp should get to be a productive plus-generating guy against, and it seems like Michigan should be going 3-3-5 most of the time. Scott's likely to churn out 3-4 yards a carry on limited opportunities.
KEY MATCHUP: NOT APPLICABLE vs I DUNNO, TACKLE? This seems almost certain to be exactly 3.2 YPC no matter what either school does.
Pass Defense vs Indiana
Ramsey needs to put his torso into it [Fuller]
Indiana's an excellent case study in the power of Mike DeBord. The Hoosiers averaged 7.8 and 8.3 YPA the two years before DeBord's arrival, 6.4 YPA both years DeBord was in residence, and have bounced back up to 8.5 in the first year of Kalen DeBoer.
This swing has been resilient: Mike Penix went in and out of the lineup before finally going out for the year before Penn State, leaving the offense in the hands of Peyton Ramsey. This has been… fine? You probably remember Ramsey as a largely nondescript guy with a bit of a noodle arm, but he's coming off a 31/41, 371-yard, 9 YPA torching of Penn State. He recently threw Maryland and Nebraska into the same wood chipper.
What's the deal with that? Let's ask Seth:
Last year Ramsey was neck and neck with Dwayne Haskins for shortest depth of original target, and there's a good three-yard difference between him and Penix this year. The pressure is part of it sure, but he also has a limited arm. So they run a lot of screens and easy dinks to spread-out receivers, and go long with lobs not darts. …
Ramsey is dinking it like Jack Coan. Dinking it to a stellar cast, yes, and dinking it two yards further than last year's average, true. But you'll quickly get both used to and annoyed by the number of quick passes made just before the pass rushers are about to hit home, and numbed by the screens.
IU's wide receiver corps is diverse and pretty good. Slot Whop Philyor is a hair behind the two monsters at Minnesota—weird year—in Big Ten receiving yards, and is close to the platonic ideal of Indiana slot. He's even kind of tallish at just under six-foot. Unfortunately for Indiana, Philyor was knocked out of the Penn State game after back-to-back headshots that were incredibly not deemed targeting and is still in concussion protocol. Freshman David Ellis stepped into the slot role pretty seamlessly, with 7 catches and 85 yards last week. Indiana would no doubt like to get Philyor back; if he can't go they're not suddenly going to avoid throwing it to their slot.
The outside guys feature two Brittain Covey Memorial Eighth Year Seniors in Nick Westbrook and Donovan Hale. Yes, they have eligibility still. Yes, both of them. Yes, both of them had a catch against Michigan in 2015. Both guys are in the Giant Overlooked Indiana Receiver mold—Westbrook is 6'3", Hale 6'4"—but a parade of injuries have delayed their development and they're currently the #4 and #5 guys on the team in receptions. Bombing a fade to one of them remains a decent plan; expect Indiana to challenge Michigan with their height. The same goes for Ty Fryfogle, a nominal backup on the outside with more catches and targets than Westbrook and Hale, and TE Peyton Hendershot. It's slots and catching radius giants.
Indiana has given up just 15 sacks on the season but like Michigan State—which entered the Michigan game having allowed just 12—context is important. Indiana's heavy reliance on dinks limits QB exposure. When longer-developing routes have been on the table things haven't gone that well. Seth charted nine pressure events for Ramsey against PSU; there's a reason his depth of target is extremely short.
KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN CORNERBACKS vs SCREENS. Ambry Thomas's undefeated record will come under some stress in this game, but if Michigan can clamp down on those and put Indiana in third and eight or more that'll do.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Indiana's kicker, Logan Justus, not only sounds like a knockoff Wolverine but also kicks a lot of field goals. After going 15/18 last year he's a perfect 14/14 this year with a fair number of long ones mixed in. Indiana is 6th in field goal efficiency.
The rest of their special teams are nondescript. They return units are very bad, with zero kick returns of note and just four yards an attempt from Philyor on punts. They must have some serious issues fielding punts or muffing them because they are a whopping 127th in punt return efficiency.
Aussie punter Heydon Whitehead has a 42 yard average and has only seen five of his 39 punts returned. Ohio State did block one earlier this year.
KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS
INTANGIBLES
CHEAP THRILLS
Worry if…
- Extremely dumb Indiana game things happen.
- Indiana's inexplicable near-annual run game out of nowhere happens.
- Gray is getting clunked on screens.
Cackle with knowing glee if…
- Ramsey has to go read #3.
- Michigan's finding pockets on RPOs as Indiana blitzes.
- They line up Not Mullen on Collins.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Actualized Speed In Space, –1 for Talent Gap, –1 for Ramsey's Arm Isn't Testing M Downfield, +1 for Annual Dumb Indiana Game Things, +1 for Trap Game No Matter What Anyone Says, +1 for Streaks Are Made To Be Broken, –1 for But Yeah Pretty Much A Double Digit Spread)
Desperate need to win level: 8(Baseline: 5; +1 for Narrative Of Progress Is Nice, +1 for Off Chance Of A Rose Bowl, +1 for Streak, +1 for Offseason Take Reduction, –1 for Division Gone)
Loss will cause me to… convince myself it was all on purpose so Michigan can have a free bye before the Game.
Win will cause me to… experience a brief glimmer of hope that my brain immediately attempts to delete.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Indiana is not #chaosteam Indiana but they're kind of back in the same boat where they can play competitive games against the top end of the conference but not win them. Hard to see IU go up and down the field on Michigan with their new zone stuff, but pretty easy to see Indiana grind out 12-play drives that take them from the 25 to the 25. At some point they're going to need to get some explosion after the catch. Always possible; extremely rare against M this year.
When Michigan's on offense they can avoid Mullen and throw it to one of their other very good receivers; IU's reliance on blitzing is not a good matchup with a Michigan team that's superb at picking them up. Talent should win out on a couple of touchdown drives, and IU's probably going to have to kick field goals.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Teams have <10 possessions each because neither D gets opposing Os off the field quickly and there are a ton of short completions.
- Ramsey throws two INTs as Brown pops some guys up in unexpected places.
- Michigan, 30-19
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
Support the Team. Love the Team. Grow as a Team. Regardless of the outcome, this is our Team.
Go Blue!
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
Regardless of his throws he is Shea? Regardless of his sacks he is Uche?
Am I doing this right?
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
So if Michigan loses, I'm supposed to be filled with joy?
November 22nd, 2019 at 6:13 PM ^
Yes. Obviously it means we spent more time focusing on OSU and we’ll be ready next week!! Duh
November 22nd, 2019 at 7:12 PM ^
If Michigan loses it will be the least consequential loss in a long time. In fact, if Indiana is due for a W, I’d rather see it here than next two years.
A loss here will cause me to shrug my shoulders, hope for a W in The Game, and wonder who will sit out the bowl game.
November 23rd, 2019 at 5:44 AM ^
If you went to Vegas and bet the teams that were "due", you would be broke in very short time. I used to bet like that way back when I was young. It was painful to say the least.
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Allen is a good coach, good enough that I hope he doesn't go to MSU. is there a plausible chance of that? He is one coach I wouldn't want in EL
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
So he'd go from coaching a Big Ten East program not named OSU/Michigan/PSU to . . . another one? Unlikely.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
While I understand your fears -- think about it for a minute. Yes, msu is a bit better name than IU...but why would he leave what took him 4 years to turn into a not-dumpster-fire only to go to a different school and start that whole process over again?
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:59 PM ^
People do weird things when you put piles of money in front of them.
Nobody bigtime will go to MSU, but an up and coming guy would probably take the risk. Competing in the B1G is a step up for a lot of coaches, regardless of school.
When Dantonio goes, they'll probably go for Narduzzi first.
November 22nd, 2019 at 6:16 PM ^
Does MSU have some pile of money tucked away somewhere?
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Can someone explain to me the significance of Juan Harris?
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
He is one of the few men on the planet the same size as Onwenu. Transferred from IU but I don’t remember where
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
He's the one who committed to IU then Iowa then IU and maybe even more in there.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
He was recruit we were interested in for a bit who was known for being a very large human being.
Mgoblog grew to love following the epic saga of his recruitment of numerous commitments, recommitment, and transfers, spelled out here: https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-juan-harris-saga-continues
Since that post he has re-enrolled at Indiana and subsequently retired from football. It’s got to be some sort of record...
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
30 points . . . three TDs (one failed 2-point try), two field goals and two safeties for Michigan.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
If this happens, I'll buy you a steak dinner.
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
I forgot how much of a heart attack the 2015 Indiana game was. I remember it as generic OT win, not Oh My God We Are Completely Going To Lose To Indiana. Just watched the extended highlights. Chesson had 4 regulation TDs and it wasn't enough for a regulation win!
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
Our largest margin of victory against them in the Harbaugh era is only 11 points, and that was last year's game.
But despite the fact that I think this Indiana team is better than they usually are, I think we beat them by 2 scores at least.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
Last year's game was close mainly because we settled for a ton of field goals, and got zero points on a drive inside the 5 due to a combination of poor clock management and IU D shenanigans with the ball. It was a bit jarring to see IU move the ball, but the biggest problem was just not finishing drives and forcing IU to become one dimensional.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:16 PM ^
I had totally forgot about that end-of-the-half ball nonsense last season. Big Ten officials, man.
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:05 PM ^
I remember the worst thing about last year was IU running man beaters all day and getting them and then no one getting any pressure on Ramsey all day, which we both feared were bad omens for OSU...and they were
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
Another reason that game sucked was having to listen to Brock Huard for 4.5 hours. Pure torture.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
being at the game is worse. their announcer is very annoying with his "first down hoooooosiers" call every first down. loud and drawn out every damn time.
November 22nd, 2019 at 7:03 PM ^
Sounds less annoying than “sack time!”
November 24th, 2019 at 8:07 AM ^
Yep. Went to Bloomington in 2010 and can confirm that Indiana's stadium announcer is incredibly annoying. Very high school-esque.
Actually to be honest I've found every opposing stadium PA announcer to be vastly inferior compared to Carl Grapentine.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
Penix went in and out
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
Immediately preceded by: "This swing has been resilient."
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:02 PM ^
Noticed that too- yikes
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
I believe the correct spelling is blecch
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
Sam Viviano ran my freshman orientation at Markley in 1974! He told us incoming freshmen we all needed to have goals, and his goal was to be one of the most influential artists of the 20th century. When I later saw his signature on the cover of MAD, I knew he had succeeded!
November 23rd, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
That is a cool story.
And the time Mad was in existence, was the time I wish America would go back to. The mag was great, and people wanted it. Now, everyone has become so sensitive, and the liberals wouldn't allow it.
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
If MAD said it...you know it's not correct.
November 23rd, 2019 at 5:48 AM ^
Loved Mad Magazine!
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
The seven teams that Indiana has beat have 18 wins combined. All have terrible records.
UM by double digits.
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:07 PM ^
But they did give PSU a good game in Happy Valley which counts for something I guess.
I refuse to believe this is a comfortable win. Death, taxes, terrifying Indiana games
November 23rd, 2019 at 12:57 AM ^
I think IU blew their wad against PSU and have little left in the sack for Michigan. I am heavily leaning to a double digit Michigan victory but backed my -8.5 bet off only because IU has been weird in the JH era.
November 23rd, 2019 at 5:52 AM ^
This game has been terrifying for many years now. I expect to be very frustrated today watching this game. Especially frustrated with how Peyton Ramsey keeps the chains moving on 3rd down.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
I hope these predictions of a comfortable win are correct. For some reason, I have a really bad feeling about this one.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
I think it is because Indiana has to be beat us, eventually. After one thing happens so many times it becomes difficult to see it happening again without the other option intervening at some point.
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
By that logic, The Game next Saturday should be an enjoyable one
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
On one hand, Indiana has beaten absolutely nobody of consequence and lost to every good team they faced + MSU. On the other hand, they had a shot at Penn State in Happy Valley, much like we did.
Also, normally, I'd say whatever. But, remember that cheap shot against Winovich last year that basically did some damage in the Ohio State game because Winovich was less than 100%? And Tom Allen acting like a rabid dog on the sidelines?
I hope Harbaugh remembers it too and says "fuck Indiana".
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
It wasn't whiteout Penn State though. Different teams.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^
I hope Harbaugh remembers...
Death, taxes, Harbaugh remembering.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Is anyone besides me concerned that IU takes the chickenshit approach again and tries to cheap shot one of our important players? Aside from some "herrr, herrrrrr we R agresssive" comments from Tom Allen, the chippiness in last year's game seems all but forgotten.
edit: beaten to it.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
This game is going to be closer than expected. M has not played nearly as well on the road as they have at home. On paper, yea should expect a 10 pt win but I can see a 7-3 point margin or closer especially if the safeties bust. Got lucky a few times last week. If those issues crop up again, Ramsey is going to take advantage. Can’t let that happen.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
You better be right. I just executed a reverse mortgage and bet the lump sum on IU +9.5
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:19 PM ^
At some point IU is going to win one of these games, and considering this is a relatively "down" year I wouldn't be shocked if they broke the streak this year. And honestly, I wouldn't be that mad. Though IU is incredibly dirty and cheap and I think Allen is a toad on the sideline, so...who knows.
Also, a big UM win would give me some glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, they can play out of their minds against OSU and only lose by 7.
November 22nd, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
Holy BPONE!
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