Preview 2019: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Previously: Podcast 11.0A, Podcast 11.0B, Podcast 11.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
| Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
| 2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
| 2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
| 2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
| 2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
| 2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
| 2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
| 2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
| 2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
| 2016 | +0.54 (24th) | 13 | 6 | 3.54(5th) | 7 | 5 | 1.69 (39th) |
| 2017 | -0.31 (90th) | 10 | 7 | 3.23(8th) | 10 | 11 | 2.77 (111th) |
| 2018 | +0.38 (35th) | 11 | 6 | 10.5% (3rd) | 9 | 3 | 5.4% (43rd) |
Let's move to sack rates instead of raw numbers; probably should have done this years ago. Michigan landed a little above average in turnover margin, which is about what you'd expect since they got after the QB more than their quarterback was gotten after.
Not a lot to say as a result. Michigan wasn't an outlier and shouldn't expect to be better or worse this year than you might expect. Michigan gets their QB and four OL back, which should help keep Michigan TOs low. If they can keep up the pressure you'd expect them to be modestly positive again at the end of the year. But turnovers are a fickle mistress, as always.
[After the JUMP: position switches are minimal]
Position Switches
Mason is about it [Patrick Barron]
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball.
Virtually none that don't have extenuating circumstances. We don't count very minor moves like WDE to SDE and the like. The list:
Ben Mason to DT. Gattis-related, doesn't say anything about DL. Unless he plays on standard downs.
Phil Paea to DT. Eh.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
So… expectations. Early lines for Michigan games:
- @ Wisconsin: Michigan –7.5
- Iowa: Michigan –15.5
- Notre Dame: Michigan –7
- MSU: Michigan –14
- OSU: Michigan –3.5
Penn State isn't listed but they're a pick'em at Iowa, implying a –12 Michigan spread, and a –13.5 dog at OSU, implying a -16 Michigan point spread.
Historically, 7 point favorites win 70% of the time and 14 point favorites win 83% of the time. Michigan's approximate cumulative expected losses before OSU is on the order of 1.1 plus whatever Indiana and Maryland can muster. This seems good! It makes me very nervous.
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
It would take an awful lot of disappointment and bad luck to not go 9-3, which would require Michigan losing against OSU, both of the ~7 point spreads (Wisconsin and ND) and then dropping a game they're currently favored in by two touchdowns.
Best Case
Michigan's favored in every game. 12-0.
Final Verdict
I've made this point a couple times in recent Q&A sessions but I'm not sure I've mentioned it here: a major reason to believe this might be The Year is quarterback depth.
Historically, Michigan's backup quarterbacks have been guys like Lunatic Freshman Ryan Mallett, I Was Just Playing Wide Receiver Devin Gardner, and John O'Korn. When Michigan's starting QBs get hurt it's over. (Even if Chad Henne gets a shot.)By contrast OSU has brought Kenny Guiton, Cardale Jones, and Dwayne Haskins off the bench, the latter two to seal competitive Games.
This year Michigan has Dylan McCaffrey seemingly locked and loaded; OSU's backup quarterback is a grad transfer from Kentucky. If that becomes relevant, whether it's before the Game or during it, it should be Michigan pulling away.
| OOC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 8/31 | MTSU | Must win |
| 9/7 | Army | Must win |
| 10/26 | Notre Dame | Tossup |
| Conference | ||
| 9/21 | @ Wisconsin | Lean to win |
| 9/28 | Rutgers | Must win |
| 10/5 | Iowa | Lean to win |
| 10/19 | @ Illinois | Must win |
| 11/2 | @ Penn State | Lean to win |
| 11/16 | @ Maryland | Must win |
| 11/10 | MSU | Must win |
| 11/17 | Indiana | Must win |
| 11/24 | @ Ohio State | Tossup |
| Absent: |
Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern |
|
11-1. The most likely 1 is OSU, of course, but I think Michigan should win that game. "Should" and "did" have not often met in the recent history of the rivalry.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:48 PM ^
I live in the BPONE. I expect losses to ND and OSU and someone random. I’m waiting for the day that Michigan actually meets or exceeds expectations again. Since I became a fan as a freshman in 06, I feel like only 2011 was a year where we ended the season on a high note (OSU win and a bowl win). The rest has been pain of varying levels. I expect the sadness to continue no matter how much numbers and talking heads and others says it’ll end.
Apologies for the BPONE, but it is my default worldview after the last 3 years of OSU games were various unique types of soul crushing losses.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
The start of a Michigan football season == unbridled optimism across the board. I've been there, but alas, I have been burned too many times to go down that road again.
We're rolling out a brand new Offensive Coordinator and perhaps not the most talented Defense ever. I'm saying 9-3, with *gulp* losses to ND and MSU, but a win over OSU.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:47 PM ^
Hard to predict the specific wins and losses, but I agree with the overall.
At this point the offense can really only disappoint because expectations are so high. Michigan Twitter after two straight 3-and-outs will be idiotic, but entertaining. I think there will be more growing pains than most are predicting.
The defense will be good as always with Don Brown. But will they be able to hang with the better QBs and athletes on the perimeter that are on the schedule? I have some doubts.
My guess is 9-3. I do think the variance is relatively high if the offense doesn't take off and the defense is mediocre--anywhere from 7-5 to 12-0.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Mr. World Wide
I got 11-1 as well, with an L to ND.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^
Bes UM analysis and it's not even close.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
Been wondering where to put this comment as it doesn’t warrant its own thread but still feels noteworthy.
Regarding the Army game: Shaun Nua was the defensive line coach at Navy for I believe six seasons before his one year at ASU. Seems like if anyone is familiar with Army’s offense and what it takes to stifle them it would be Nua as Navy ran the same offense and the two teams play each other every year.
Maybe that helps assuage some of the Army related concern.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^
Can't hurt. But Don Brown neutered Air Force two years ago. That, too, scared everybody. They were coming off of 10-3 and everybody panicked about the dangerous triple option and blown out knees. None of it ever materialized. AF ran for nothing. Only scored 1 TD on their one and only completion of the day.
Glad to have Nua's input. Zero Army concern.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:33 PM ^
I say 11-1 as well with a loss to Wisconsin because injured players don't return on time. I say we look like one of the best teams in the country after that game with players returning. I say the D is top 5 as I think DB will be able to make the D work better without many stars just like old times at BC.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
11-1, win the division. This is the year playing with fire with Indiana finally gets us.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
LET'S FREAKING GO!!!
August 30th, 2019 at 8:01 PM ^
15-0 baby! Pumped! Enjoying beautiful Friday Night Football and lovin’ it.
August 30th, 2019 at 9:12 PM ^
I'm no longer a gambling man but Iowa +15.5 looks like easy money.
Smooth Jimmy's Lock of The Week (or the Season, in this case)
August 31st, 2019 at 12:10 AM ^
My heart says 11-1 with a surprise road loss to Wisconsin or Penn State. Still win the B1G and are on the playoff bubble.
My head says 10-2. The defensive issues are too much to overcome even for Don Brown and our year 1 spread can’t quite close. Lose to ND or OSU in addition to the loss above. Miss the B1G Championship again.
OSU is 10-2 also. MSU 9-3. ND 10-2
August 31st, 2019 at 12:39 AM ^
I guess I'll put this here -- it's as good a place as any.
I don't know how M will do this year, and I of course lean to the BPONE side of things. That said, the entertainment value of this site is, and always has been, off the god damn charts. Between the amount of content, the quality of the writing, and the amount of facts and solid analysis crammed into each piece, it's just really entertaining to spend time on this site.
Thank you, thank you, thank you for one of the best things on the internet. And Go Blue!!
August 31st, 2019 at 2:03 AM ^
Let's just fucking go! One game at a time. Do what we do and do it well enough to win every game. 12-0, B1G championship and a CFP berth.
August 31st, 2019 at 7:22 AM ^
Applying regression to the mean to almost any statistical football measure from a given year and then trying to extrapolate into the next year (or any other future time) only works if there's a given, fixed mean to regress toward. In football, the players. coaches, schemes, opponents, and their talent levels change so much from year to year that using regression is almost always invalid.
Oh yeah, we go 11-1.
August 31st, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
We will get a good barometer on the season in Game 3 when they go on the road to Wisconsin. If they win that game convincingly, 12-0 is in the cards. If they shit the bed as they have in many road games against good opponents, we are probably looking at 9-3 or 10-2.
August 31st, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
If you can’t be optimistic with ND, MSU, and OSU at home; a returning senior QB; an experienced o-line; an NFL bound WR set; and Don Brown putting together our D, and we are just starting season 140, then when can you be? 13-0 to start!! Go Blue!
August 31st, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
We kick the shit out of OSU and win the B10 title game.
I’m going to keep saying that every year and someday I will be right
August 31st, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
it’s my senior year. I haven’t missed a single game in three years. I really want this year to be something special. we all do. but this year...this year I’m more emotional about it. for a lot of reasons.
go blue.
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