Preview 2019: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Previously: Podcast 11.0A, Podcast 11.0B, Podcast 11.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
| Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
| 2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
| 2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
| 2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
| 2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
| 2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
| 2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
| 2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
| 2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
| 2016 | +0.54 (24th) | 13 | 6 | 3.54(5th) | 7 | 5 | 1.69 (39th) |
| 2017 | -0.31 (90th) | 10 | 7 | 3.23(8th) | 10 | 11 | 2.77 (111th) |
| 2018 | +0.38 (35th) | 11 | 6 | 10.5% (3rd) | 9 | 3 | 5.4% (43rd) |
Let's move to sack rates instead of raw numbers; probably should have done this years ago. Michigan landed a little above average in turnover margin, which is about what you'd expect since they got after the QB more than their quarterback was gotten after.
Not a lot to say as a result. Michigan wasn't an outlier and shouldn't expect to be better or worse this year than you might expect. Michigan gets their QB and four OL back, which should help keep Michigan TOs low. If they can keep up the pressure you'd expect them to be modestly positive again at the end of the year. But turnovers are a fickle mistress, as always.
[After the JUMP: position switches are minimal]
Position Switches
Mason is about it [Patrick Barron]
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball.
Virtually none that don't have extenuating circumstances. We don't count very minor moves like WDE to SDE and the like. The list:
Ben Mason to DT. Gattis-related, doesn't say anything about DL. Unless he plays on standard downs.
Phil Paea to DT. Eh.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
So… expectations. Early lines for Michigan games:
- @ Wisconsin: Michigan –7.5
- Iowa: Michigan –15.5
- Notre Dame: Michigan –7
- MSU: Michigan –14
- OSU: Michigan –3.5
Penn State isn't listed but they're a pick'em at Iowa, implying a –12 Michigan spread, and a –13.5 dog at OSU, implying a -16 Michigan point spread.
Historically, 7 point favorites win 70% of the time and 14 point favorites win 83% of the time. Michigan's approximate cumulative expected losses before OSU is on the order of 1.1 plus whatever Indiana and Maryland can muster. This seems good! It makes me very nervous.
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
It would take an awful lot of disappointment and bad luck to not go 9-3, which would require Michigan losing against OSU, both of the ~7 point spreads (Wisconsin and ND) and then dropping a game they're currently favored in by two touchdowns.
Best Case
Michigan's favored in every game. 12-0.
Final Verdict
I've made this point a couple times in recent Q&A sessions but I'm not sure I've mentioned it here: a major reason to believe this might be The Year is quarterback depth.
Historically, Michigan's backup quarterbacks have been guys like Lunatic Freshman Ryan Mallett, I Was Just Playing Wide Receiver Devin Gardner, and John O'Korn. When Michigan's starting QBs get hurt it's over. (Even if Chad Henne gets a shot.)By contrast OSU has brought Kenny Guiton, Cardale Jones, and Dwayne Haskins off the bench, the latter two to seal competitive Games.
This year Michigan has Dylan McCaffrey seemingly locked and loaded; OSU's backup quarterback is a grad transfer from Kentucky. If that becomes relevant, whether it's before the Game or during it, it should be Michigan pulling away.
| OOC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 8/31 | MTSU | Must win |
| 9/7 | Army | Must win |
| 10/26 | Notre Dame | Tossup |
| Conference | ||
| 9/21 | @ Wisconsin | Lean to win |
| 9/28 | Rutgers | Must win |
| 10/5 | Iowa | Lean to win |
| 10/19 | @ Illinois | Must win |
| 11/2 | @ Penn State | Lean to win |
| 11/16 | @ Maryland | Must win |
| 11/10 | MSU | Must win |
| 11/17 | Indiana | Must win |
| 11/24 | @ Ohio State | Tossup |
| Absent: |
Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern |
|
11-1. The most likely 1 is OSU, of course, but I think Michigan should win that game. "Should" and "did" have not often met in the recent history of the rivalry.
August 30th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
Hell yeah! GO BLUE!!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
Great stuff, well researched as always. We are unbelievably spoiled and lucky to have this blog. Thank you Brian for everything.
6-6, if a few lucky bounces roll our way.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
If we go 6-6, the only thing bouncing will be our bodies after they hit the floor.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
You have come up 3 wins since a couple months ago. Temper it down a little bit buddy.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
Brian's optimism is rubbing off on me I guess
August 30th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
Thanks again Brian for your excellent work. My Michigan football fandom would’ve fizzled a fair bit over the last decade if it wasn’t for this site.
Go blue!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
In all seriousness, this site has been the epicenter of my fandom for most of my adult life. We are very fortunate that they have kept it all going while all the other major blogs have either fizzled out or been bought by corporate. I imagine Brian has given up a ton of cash to keep this going.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
LFGoBlue. Cannot wait for kickoff tomorrow night.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
The last three sentences == Daggers.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
I'm in for the best case!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
OPTIMISM!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
LFG.
15 hours and 20 minutes.
August 30th, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^
I think that's 730 in the morning.
August 30th, 2019 at 6:02 PM ^
I'm a doctor not a mathmatician
August 30th, 2019 at 9:05 PM ^
Is that you, Bones?
August 31st, 2019 at 5:12 AM ^
Sat morning game!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
Unless I'm seeing the schedule wrong, aren't we home for OSU and @ Indiana? Awesome write-up otherwise! Looking forward to this season!
August 30th, 2019 at 5:18 PM ^
yeah -- I had a minor freakout and had to google whether we were seriously @OSU two years in a row .... phew
Looks like the dates are all off as well. Probably just a copy/paste from last year
August 30th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
Thanks Brian!
August 30th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
Jim Rome likes this content?
Doesn't matter. I like it.
August 30th, 2019 at 6:31 PM ^
Maybe I'm missing the joke, but that's Shia Labeouf
August 30th, 2019 at 6:49 PM ^
Have you seen them together in the same room?
August 30th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
Let's do this. Go Blue!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Tall Mountain of Positive Expectations
TMOPE
August 30th, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
TMOPE >>> BPONE
August 31st, 2019 at 12:51 AM ^
Never Ending Hill of Excellence.
NEHE
August 30th, 2019 at 4:21 PM ^
Mark me down for 10-2. I think the O will be very strong but I am not quite as optimistic on D given the lack of depth and frankly, not that many playmakers (unless Hill, McGrone/Anthony emerge and Dwumfour/Thomas are fully healthy). But if 10-2 includes a win over OSU, I am quite fine with 10-2.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
My head says there's a loss between @Wisconsin/@Penn Sate/ND and we roll into "The Game" week 10-1. My heart can't predict a win in that one anymore until I see it, but I'll be in the Big House supporting the boys in blue on November 30th.
Only time I've ever been on the field there was after 2011 OSU and would very much like another chance to do so.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:22 PM ^
Always skittish of Penn State at night. But it's the best case scenario schedule. OSU, Notre Dame and State all in Ann Arbor. Iowa rotates back on the schedule but not at Kinnick. Wisconsin early when they're more likely still playing the bad QB from last year. Also appreciate the big B1G games on FOX being the early game so it will be somewhat less lubricated Sconnie fans at 11am. Penn State doesn't look as good as last year. Returning senior starting QB and a backup we like. 4 OL returnees. LFG.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
WOtS is that psu may be a noon game due to TV, as strange as that sounds
August 30th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
I lived in Wisconsin long enough to know that the only sober Badger fan on football Saturday is a dead Badger fan, depending on when he was buried. The game could be at 6 AM central time and they'd still be well lubricated.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
I did say somewhat less lubricated - it's a state where a craft brewery can be in the top 16 nationally by volume selling solely in that state, they're gonna have their beers. It still won't be as crazy as a 2:30 or night game.
August 31st, 2019 at 8:20 AM ^
PBR is considered a craft brew in Wisconsin. They are neanderthals when it comes to beer drinking sophistication.
August 31st, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
Ever had a spotted cow?
August 30th, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^
Let's have a real good time.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
As I wiggle my evil, mystical fingers toward you: "You're feeling very comfortable. You're beginning to like the way things appear. You feel good about yourselves. Everything will be different this season. It has to turn your way sometime. This is going to be the year. Feel good about yourselves. Yes, you're feeling happy. Very, very happy. Nothing could possibly go wrong."
/hypnotic trance
August 30th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^
And I keep watching you Buckeyes and wondering if you are like US just prior to the RichRod era-- totally oblivious to the $hitstorm that is about to hit you and your program.
August 30th, 2019 at 7:34 PM ^
Must. Not. Fall. For. It. Fight. It.
I made it. Welcome back BPONE!
August 30th, 2019 at 8:50 PM ^
"You especially are under my power...believe it is real...believe everything will be better than ever before...you have nothing to fear but BPONE itself."
August 30th, 2019 at 11:41 PM ^
Not going to happen buddy, BPONE is powerful. Trying to convince me might be urethane but it is not myethane.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
Hell yeah, brothers! I'm about to leave Houston and head to Austin to watch CFB all weekend! I miss the Michigan weather but damn am I happy to have Michigan football back in my life.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
Lol @ MSU as a must win. Can’t aargue there!
August 30th, 2019 at 4:30 PM ^
"Should" and "did" should become better friends. Here's hoping, in a few months, they did.
August 30th, 2019 at 4:30 PM ^
fun story - i didn't know what the word "heuristic" meant for many years because the UM computer engineering curriculum didn't define it. in one of the 300 level programming classes they just started using the word for a search algorithm and said "it doesn't work very well", which de facto became the understood definition: it doesn't work very well. needless to say, once i learned the real definition, years later, i started to and still use that word all the damn time (in the parlance of our time)
August 30th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^
Wow. That’s optimism.
I am not that confident in our defense. It will be ok, for the most part. But I think there are personnel holes to be exploited and, perhaps, schematic ones as well.
I share Brian’s optimism for the offense. If anything, cautiously, because it doesn’t seem real that it could be as good as I think it should be this year.
But the offense should produce jaw-dropping results. If it doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.
And I agree with the QB opinion: we’ve got the best QB situation we’ve had in a long time. Maybe 1999-2000. And elite QB play can make a good team great.
It won’t win a national title. Ceiling, can make the playoff. Floor? Actually pretty bad with the schedule.
But I think Michigan loses one or two games. I have no idea about the last one, but we need it desperately. Why not this year?
August 30th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
Under Harbaugh, Michigan has lost 5 very specific types of games:
Season Openers on the road against Top 25 competition (2): at Utah, at Notre Dame
MSU at home (2)
OSU (4)
Bowl Games in the South (3)
The other three losses are at Kinnick, Madison, and the White Out.
They don’t have the first type and the last doesn’t apply to the regular season.
So, this hinges on a few questions:
- Can they beat Ohio State?
- Does Sparty’s insane luck in Ann Arbor run out?
- Can they win in Madison and State College?
I see 10-2. Don’t think MSU wins in Ann Arbor again. I think they split the road games and lose to the Buckeyes again.
Another meaningless NY6 bowl.
August 30th, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
Buckeyes are loaded with talent; good recruiting and good coaching. All the other loses are due to injuries or an occassional bad game. There is no real pattern or cause and effect. Biggest factor is lack of depth across the roster. It looks like JH fixed that. I hope any weaknesses witll be fixed with balance and game planning.
August 31st, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
How does anyone know if OSU has good coaching? I’m reading this in the media too. Ryan day wins two games and he’s a good coach? The guy is completely unproven. He could be the next Lincoln Riley or the next Luke fickell interim coach. At minimum he is no urban Meyer. That uncertainty alone has to put OSU in question as to how good they will really be.
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