Previously: Podcast 11.0A, Podcast 11.0B, Podcast 11.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL.

  Depth Chart

ANCHOR	Yr.	NOSE TACKLE	Yr.	3-TECH	Yr.	WEAK DE	Yr.
Aidan Hutchinson	So.	Carlo Kemp	Jr.*	Mike Dwumfour	Jr.*	Kwity Paye	Jr.
Paye	Jr.	Donovan Jeter	So.*	Chris Hinton	Fr.	Mike Danna	Sr.*
Julius Welschof	Fr.*	Mazi Smith	Fr.	Ben Mason	Jr.*	Josh Uche	Jr.

Michigan is set to start over at end. Rashan Gary went in the top ten of the NFL draft—as an outside linebacker, for some reason—and Chase Winovich, as per usual, was less hyped but has been more productive. But… eh, it'll be fine. Not great, probably. Replacing Winovich's production is going to be tough. But Michigan has one established Big Ten player who could get a lot better, one guy who looks like a rising star, and a hugely productive grad transfer.

There will probably be a dropoff; it probably won't be severe.

[After THE JUMP: auto-cannibals and Don Brown's favorite guy]

OPEN SIDE END: KWITY KWITY BANG BANG

RATING: 3.5.

can i talk to you about your 401k [Bryan Fuller]

Don Brown loves KWITY PAYE. It would almost be impossible to overstate how much Don Brown loves Kwity Paye.

"Kwity Paye might be, technically, the best football player in the country, and I’m just sayin’. I mean, that guy, he’s hard to fool, so I have no concerns about him."

Jon Jansen's podcast relayed similar takes from Brown, who dropped the "technically" to say he's "potentially the best football player in America." That is out there, but here's to Brown smugly dunking on Paye doubters after the season.

Paye arrived out of Rhode Island as a 230-pound weakside end who needed to beef. This process is now complete. Paye checked in at an NFL-ready 277 pounds on the most recent roster; were at the point where talk about playing either Paye or Aidan Hutchinson—about whom more in a second—at anchor would be completely fine.

Paye proved that on the field last year. Rashan Gary went out at the worst possible time from a run defense perspective: Wisconsin. Paye stepped into Gary's shoes and outperformed reasonable expectations:

Gary's loss is survivable. There's a dropoff to Paye but it seems way smaller than it should be. Dude just powered through various Wisconsin OL and did not get his ass kicked even once. Gary wasn't providing a ton of pass rush when he went out, perhaps because of the shoulder, so if Paye comes through the Wisconsin game as a "hero," well, what's he going to do against worse OLs?

He was able to reset the LOS against the Badgers, repeatedly driving into the backfield to constrict space and make up for the struggling DTs. That was his first start and he graded out as Michigan's best run defender:

Paye is not Rashan Gary but little of Wisconsin's success, such as it was, could be put on him. Twice he was able to reset the LOS on Wisconsin's bonus OL. This is not a tight end he staples into the backfield, nor is it 180 pound freshman WR AJ Abbott, who's listed as 89 on the roster. It is a Wisconsin offensive lineman:

Kemp is getting caved by a double here so if Paye can't make a version of this play Michigan's in a little trouble. And the version he does make is on the more impressive end of the spectrum. His guy goes for a ride.

When engaged with Wisconsin OL he won more than he lost, even when he was going up against Edwards. This is another gap eraser:

#19 DE to bottom

He didn't get much pass rush but he just passed the stiffest test on the ground Michigan will face all year. Pretty easily. I had scattered minuses but the biggest negative was on a jet screen he got edged on, which isn't about holding up physically. Hopefully Gary gets back immediately but if he doesn't Michigan's got a guy who's ready to go filling in.

He was the opposite of spectacular.

DE #19 to top of line

He was consistent. He was responsible. He's the guy your mom likes in the boy band. He'd take his guy, move him a bit, set up in his gap, and let his teammates finish the play. Paye occasionally got blown the heck out by doubles last year, but after 15 pounds and a move away from the tight end side that is unlikely to be a major issue.

Being the responsible one has its downsides, and in Paye's case that meant a lack of reckless abandon to the quarterback. He flashed an ability to rush off the edge in the opener against good competition…

DE #19 to bottom of screen

…and then that went away. Both of Paye's sacks, which came against Northwestern, were cleanup duty. One was a giant loop around Dwumfour and Winovich that got to the QB just as he exited the pocket:

DT #19 looping to top of screen

That's good team play and acceleration; it's not a play he drove.

Watching Paye next to Uche, as they were often deployed on passing downs, is clarifying. Uche got off in a flash. Paye's successful rushes were rarer and tended to be dogged, like this near-sack against Penn State:

DE #19 to bottom of line

And that's almost literally all the pass rush I clipped for him. Paye did spend much of the year a backup, and when he got passing down snaps he was playing DT. There are extenuating circumstances. Still: Uche was Uche in about 15 snaps a game. Michigan often left Paye as a spy in case the QB broke the pocket. As Don Brown put it:

"we got first- [and] second-down production out of Kwity and third-down production out of Josh."

Paye was not Uche, and it's odd that he's apparently set to enter the year as the starting weakside end. It seems likely that the distinction between anchor and open-side end will be much less of a deal this year, but even if that's the case Michigan needs a quantum leap from Paye as a pass rusher if they're going to be on the same planet as Winovich last year.

That seems unlikely. A-level pass rushers announce themselves out of the gate. They can refine and get better, but you know it quick. Mike Dwumfour was not a good football player last year; he announced himself as a rusher. Josh Uche got about ten snaps a game; he announced himself as a rusher. Paye got a big chunk of at-bats and did not. Arguments that he might exist. He was a true sophomore and has his coach's endorsement plus some beefening. I'd still brace for a decline in standard-down rush production.

Paye will be very good, even great, as a run defender but that's not enough to be all-conference.

ANCHOR: DEAL WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF GEOMETRIC GROWTH LATER

RATING: 3.5

it's only weird if auto-cannibalism is weird [Patrick Barron]

The AIDAN HUTCHINSON [recruiting profile] trajectory has been an arrow straight up ever since his commitment and it doesn't seem like he's running out of gas just yet. As a reminder, this is what he looked like as a three-star instate commit a couple years back:

Dude had hulked up by the time of his all-star game appearance, crushed it, and dodged a redshirt last year because he was immediately ready to chip in. In year two he's now a meaty 278 and holding off a PFF All-American as Michigan's second DE starter. Aidan Hutchinson looks like he ate Aidan Hutchinson.

He also flashed exciting upside in year one. Hutchinson already displayed a veteran push-pull move, lately a favored tactic of Ryan Glasgow and Chase Winovich. Neither guy was doing it in the Big Ten as a freshman:

DE #97 to bottom

DE #97 to top

After the latter this site said Hutchinson was "having a sufficient number of moments like this to expect that he'll be ready to step in and perform next year."

Hutchinson had a couple of hiccups in his first extended time against WMU, getting sat upon once, looked promising against Nebraska and Maryland, and then was all but dropped from the lineup thanks to iron man Chase Winovich and Josh Uche's emergence as a must-play passing-downs guy.

This should not be held against him—Winovich was one of the best DEs Michigan's had in the last decade and his endurance was absurd. It does limit the number of snaps we can extrapolate from. The stuff above, and the occasional +1 on a run play are about it, because when Hutchinson got into the game the portion of the game where people threw the ball had ended.

It does make our projections a little wobblier. They're still worth making, as Hutchinson has been pretty much locked in as a starter since spring. Harbaugh:

"Aidan Hutchinson is having a great spring. He’s becoming a dominant player. He’s elevated his game. Played in all 13 games as a true freshman and he’s just doing an incredible job."

Sound effects Don Brown:

"…big dude, and football, important to him, and has a charismatic way about him that I just like the guy. He’s still working on some things that he has to get cleaned up in his footwork but his upper body, length, being able to Oh, I’m reached? Wooom. I mean, that’s hard to do, now. Not a lot of guys in the country can do that, so you got him.

Josh Uche cited Jeter and Hutchinson ("a beast") as breakout players around the same time since he "matured a lot quicker than most of the other guys".

Hutchinson has maintained this into fall even after the addition of Mike Danna. Hutchinson ("playing really well") and Paye were the first two guys out of Brown's mouth when he made the case for an 8-10 man DL rotation; the "biggest takeaway" from a few Lorenz sources was that Hutchinson is coming and a "breakout of some kind seems imminent." Rivals had something similar ("huge leap … relentless… potential for an All Big Ten season").

Hutchinson came to Michigan as a guy with a suddenly high ceiling…

Great frame with plenty of room to fill in and has already started that process. Long arms. Fluid kid with flexibility and ability to bend. Can turn the corner and rush off the edge. Likely grows into a strongside end because he has so much room to add weight. Plays hard and plays physically. Still can improve technique with his hands, but physical tools and intangibles are all there.

…and is tracking towards hitting that ceiling in year two. A reasonable worst case scenario is he's an average-ish Big Ten anchor end who is clearly ascending quickly. He could be one of the better SDEs in the conference even now. Wide range here. Next year that range constricts to a 290-pound All Big Ten level player.

BACKUPS

The fuzzy deployment of the two guys above the fold means we're going to toss the rest of the DEs in one pile. Paye can just bump over to anchor if necessary, so all DEs are viable for snaps. The two gents most likely to get those snaps are MIKE DANNA and JOSH UCHE. Michigan has apparently not put Uche's hand in the dirt much and is content to have him as a SAM, so he's addressed in the linebacker section. I expect that he'll line up at DE on more than a few passing downs.

Danna, a Central Michigan grad transfer, is a true DE and seems like he'll be the third musketeer. If you've read this site at all over the summer you've probably caught wind of the fact that Pro Football Focus loves the dude.

They gave him the highest pass-rush grade of any returning player nationwide and used that to assert that Danna was an "upgrade" at defensive end, but halfway through the article they dropped some harsh truths:

The first thing that pops off the tape with Danna is his power. He manhandles tackles in both the run game and as a pass-rusher with pure strength. As you can see below, his ability to use his leverage to forklift tackles should be a constant no matter what college competition he’s playing against.

… While he does great work with his hands, Danna racked up pressures with inside moves against sloppy tackles. Danna doesn’t have the burst or bend of you typical pass-rusher that can consistently corner offensive tackles. Over 1/3 of his pressures (20) came against Maine and Ball State last season while his three lowest pass-rushing grades came against Central Michigan’s only three Power-5 opponents (Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan State). He’ll have to develop a more refined set of moves to win the edge for his production to translate to the NFL or even the Big 10.

They just ranked him the #22 player in college football and a second-team All-American.

Danna's drummed up a fair bit of offseason praise, including one of Don Brown's patented "I will kiss the strength coach on the lips" takes:

"Mike Danna is doing a good job," Brown said. "He's certainly jumped right in and had a good summer. Kudos to Coach Herbert, he probably owes him a kiss on the lips as he went from 240 to 260 and we're seeing the fruits of that hard work."

Danna was listed at 257 by Central Michigan. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This preview's expectations for Danna are relatively modest, much closer to Nick Baumgardner's than PFFs. Baumgardner's take:

… not an overly explosive athlete. … great with his hands and upper body, he plays with a solid punch and he's almost always disciplined … initial punch and work with his hands are his strengths. … more than held his own in pass-rush situations against MSU. … looked like a player who belonged [against Kentucky]. He didn't take the game over or dominate by any stretch. But, perhaps most important, he rarely looked overwhelmed.

Danna probably would have been drafted late if he'd decided to take that route, and that's about the expectation level to have. On the roundtable Sam Webb compared him to Shantee Orr, who was a borderline all-conference player before leaving early for the NFL; he went undrafted but caught on for a six-year career.

The Harbaugh take is more positive:

“His work ethic has been outstanding … carries himself like he’s on a mission …  Moving exceptionally well, which we thought. But then there’s some of the sled work and some of the things where you come up and physically punch and hit. He’s got a lot of power. More than we thought."

He'll rotate in a lot. Unless Paye blows up he's going to be in the ballpark of both starting DEs, and the D will be better with three guys getting a bunch of snaps and entering the fourth quarter a third fresher than they would otherwise.

Welschof is probably a year away [Fuller]

There won't be many, if any, meaningful snaps left after those four guys take theirs. The rest of the DE crew will be jockeying for garbage-time snaps and the opportunity to fill the shoes of Danna in next year's rotation. Predicting an order is difficult, but the redshirt freshmen likely have an advantage over the noobs and the injured.

German home-run swing JULIUS WELSCHOF [recruiting profile] took the bus to beef city over the offseason, shooting up 25 pounds. One point to this anonymous coach quoted in Welschof's recruiting profile:

“He’s really raw but his upside is tremendous,” said one of the coaches at another program that had him in camp last summer. “This is a really good get for Michigan. He’s a beautiful kid. He’s going to be 6'6", 280 pounds before too long. His athleticism is really legit.”

Welschof's football career to date consists of doing funky exercises underneath overpasses and skiing, plus whatever he picked up last year. That shouldn't be enough to see the field but Lorenz included him in a list of three players who the "staff loves" but are "probably one more year away." That's about the best-case scenario for him; check back in a year.

Redshirt freshman TAYLOR UPSHAW [recruiting profile] was a swing in the dark at a guy who had NFL bloodlines but hadn't produced much on the field. He was another guy who we were supposed to check in on after a few years, but unlike Welschof he hasn't blown up. Per the roster he actually dropped six pounds to get down to 240. Last year Brown said he was an anchor, so that seems bad. But Lorenz recently added him to the "maybe next year" list.

it's been two years but we finally have a few shots of Vilain(#18) in a winged helmet [Fuller]

Redshirt sophomore LUIJI VILAIN [recruiting profile] came to Michigan as the most-hyped defensive end Michigan's recruited (aside from Rashan Gary) since Shawn Crable and Tim Jamison landed in 2003 and 2004. Then he got injured. Then he got injured again. So the news from this spring was "is not injured… for now":

"Luiji Vilain has practiced all five practices and you know: arrows up."

The news from fall camp is the same:

"Luiji Villain, healthy, made it through all of the spring (knocks on wood) and made it through the first five practices and doing some good things."

And that's been it aside from a brief mention from Paye ("coming along and now just has to get more reps at the position"). The goal for this year is to stay healthy and flash a little bit in garbage time.

The three freshmen are all but certain redshirts. GABE NEWBURG [recruiting profile] projects as an anchor and just cracked 250 pounds on the roster; MIKE MORRIS [recruiting profile] is a Wormley-esque swing SDE/3T and will need to have a season of beef to threaten the two-deep. DAVID OJABO [recruiting profile] is a Taco Charlton type from Scotland with all the upside in the world and a long, long way to go. Here is a topical tweet.

Just seen a bird shoutin at her bairn to put his pants on then pointed at me sayin 'look the mans gonna steal ur willy'. Wtf no am no

— Ryan King (@ryankingg) April 19, 2014

If he does nothing else Ojabo will allow me to reference Scottish Twitter for 3-5 years.