Squint really hard—is there a Lewanlong in there?

When updating the roster I also of course grabbed the current rankings and star ratings from each site for the committed players. I was having some fun seeing where they fit among past Michigan recruits, and figured I might as well share.

Explanation of numbers: My “☆s” ratings are a composite score on a sliding 5-star scale that averages the available recruiting site data. So for example 247sports had Shane Morris a 95, and the 81st overall recruit. On my scale that would be a 4.4-star, the equivalent of a 5.9 in the top 100 to Rivals, a 4-star in the top 100 on Scout, and an 84 on ESPN. Weights in the second column are as a recruit. Also the old ESPN grades are scaled to match (as best as possible) their modern ratings system. Pre-2002 ratings are not to be trusted because those data I have are mostly just stars, with the occasional top-100 or something, and pre-1996 is the recruiting dark ages.

Please get the point: This is not a “You might remember me from such players as,” which is based on scouting—you’ll have to wait for the 2017 recruiting posts this spring and summer before we can make those kinds of claims. The tape and offers can sometimes tell a very different story than the scouting services, to say nothing of fit and who’s doing the offering.

The point here is to orient you as to how highly rated these guys are, because “he’s a 4-star” can mean a ton of things but “he’s right around where Kekoa Crawford ended up” is a mark.

Quarterback

Dylan McCaffrey (M rank as recruit since 1995: 9/25)

Go look at the QB class of 2004 if you doubt a #13 was pretty good.

Between Devin Gardner and Clayton Richard/Tate Forcier, but I see a closer comp to Shane Morris except taller and more Harbaugh. Like Morris, McCaffrey created disagreement as to whether he’s a pro-style or dual-threat, and he was a consensus five-star before slipping down to wind up a high-ish 4-star. If he slipped a bit further, it’s probably not as much as Shane would have fallen in today’s more dynamic rankings world. McCaffrey may also get moved up a bit as ESPN finalizes their ratings—Brandon Peters was ranked the same nationally—60th overall—but got a score of 85.

That McCaffrey was recruited by Harbaugh, not Borges, is important. When I went through all the quarterbacks Harbaugh recruited to Stanford the vast majority of his targets wound up good quarterbacks. In 2008 he got Luck and almost got RGIII but for Stanford’s admissions policy. The following year three out of his five offers (Matt Barkley, Taysom Hill, and Brock Osweiler) ended up Heisman candidates, and the other two (Josh Nunes at Stanford and Allan Bridgford at Cal) were starters. As for Borges, his one scouting success story so far is Wilton Speight…after two years of being coached by Harbaugh.

[Hit THE JUMP for more.]

Running Back

The silver lining of Bama flipping Bama commit Najee Harris to Bama at the last minute is it saved us from reliving other 5-star backs at Michigan. A.J. Dillon, if you’re wondering, was a 3.85* on my composite, mostly thanks to a top 100 ranking from 247sports.

O’Maury Samuels (M rank as recruit: 21/41 since ’95)

FYI for the old-timers, Teric Jones, Mike Cox, C-Will and J.R. Ford were also 3.60s. Also In case you didn’t notice those freshman weights are probably a bit off (Evans was not 200 this year).

O’Maury Samuels’s 5’11/190 is about average for a freshman back; he probably comes in Jerome Jackson-sized, or a bigger Karan Higdon. His Scout and 247 rankings (the two that probably matter most) bring Samuels down to closer to Brandon Minor or Fitz Toussaint in expectation level. I’d say take De’Veon Smith and Mike Cox, and split the difference.

Kurt Taylor (M rank as recruit: 32/41 since ’95)

But Mike Hart…

…is not on this list, since he was actually one of those high 3-stars—more Chris Evans than Timothy Bracken. Kurt Taylor’s recruiting composite is one step below the guy whose names you remember to stump your friends with obscure mid-aughts Carr recruits, and one spot above last week’s NFL Wild Card MVP. Vincent Smith and Drake Johnson are around there too. If Kurt Taylor remains in this class—and indications are he will do so over all your dead bodies—there’s plenty of precedent for him to become a valuable addition.

Fullback

I don’t trust most of what it says below since these fullbacks were rarely recruited to play such, or ranked for it. And most of the period when recruiting services would care about fullbacks occurred before recruiting services cared about putting their data online and in order. So this is meaningless but…

Ben Mason (M rank as recruit: 9/18 since ’95)

He’s the same size a half inch short of Wyatt Shallman, but ranked as a linebacker, so Ben winds up looking like Quintin Patilla, who wound up playing a tiny tiny bit when Michigan ran out of bodies in the Rodriguez era. If I had more data Ray Jackson, Dave Armstrong and B.J. Askew might be somewhere in there.

Comp: fullbacks.

Wide Receivers

Donovan Peoples-Jones (M rank as recruit: 3/55 since ’95)

(the blue highlight is Nico Collins, discussed below)

They said he’s Michigan’s top recruit of the database era, but my own class had that pair of all-timers to compare him to. On sources: Tom Lemming would have his Top 100 list and Top ~25 at each position, which are still the easiest to translate if not purely the most accurate reflection of contemporary thought. Making the Parade Team from 1963 to 1999 was about the equivalent of a Top 25 ranking and a #1 or 2 at your position. Woodson, Backus, Mo Williams, Fargas, Terrell, Walker, Henson (as punter lol!), and Tony Pape are the guys to make those teams in late ’90s. Superprep and, for Midwest recruiting, The Insiders were the forebears of Scout.com, publishing regional and national recruiting rankings. I’ve shared those I can find but these lists weren’t printed on the internet so they’re challenging to find. Lastly Michigan’s first crootin blogger, Sandeep Vijan, is helpful in putting together the stories from this era.

Between the two fellow five-star receivers Walker is the nearer target. Walker had that combination of ridiculous ups and downfield quickness to always be open, while Terrell was more of a smaller Megatron. Streets is hanging around nearby, or you could say “Manningham except big.” Anyway he’s a big enough deal that I should probably do one of those looks at all national recruits like I did for some previous consensus 5-stars.

We’ll keep going down the line.

Tarik Black (M rank as recruit: 13/55 since ’95)

There’s a split of opinion on Black: Rivals and Scout think he’s in the Avant-Arrington range, and ESPN and 247 put him closer to where they had Ahmir Mitchell (whose talent was never in question).

Nico Collins (M rank as recruit if he comes: 19/55 since ’95)

Brad Hawkins (M rank if Nico comes: 26/55 since ’95)

I used Hawkins’s rankings from last year (he’s darker yellow). He ended up being fairly similar to Darboh, who was about the same size and similarly hung around the bottom of Top 250 lists with one site considerably less excited. In Hawkins’s case that’s 247, though that could be a reflection of concern he wouldn’t make it.

Target Nico Collins is ranked tightly around the early 20th receiver and 150th overall except to Rivals, who has him knocking on the door of the Top 50. Kekoa Crawford was in the same range as a recruit, but if Funchess was re-ranked as a receiver prospect that might be the better comparison. It also suggests why he’s such a big deal.

Tight Ends

None in this class but Asiasi is #1 of 33 guys. Butt was #3. Gentry is #5, Bunting #7, Eubanks #12 and Wheatley #13. The only top 10 recruits who weren’t on the 2016 roster were 2001 bust Kyle Ealey, two converted WRs (Massaquoi and Ricardo Miller), Brandon Moore, Kevin Koger, and Aaron Shea. It’s fair to say Michigan has more talent at the position right now than any time since two-receiver sets became the norm.

Centers

Cesar Ruiz (#4/17 since 1995)

I broke out the centers separately because Ruiz is among those recruited specifically for the spot, and the little I know of football makes me a strong believer in the belief that your O-linemen need a peculiar type of mental makeup as well as physical, and that this is triple-true at center.

Our current crop is close, with Ruiz similar in size and ranking (but probably not personality) to Justin Boren. All of these guys save Jason Brooks, who got into some trouble before he put on the requisite weight, and Patrick Kugler (argh) turned out pretty good. The fact that Ruiz is already sized as a Big Ten OL I believe makes him a candidate to start as a true freshman like Boren and Cole did. I still project that he’ll begin, like Boren, as a guard, then move to center when Cole graduates.

Note: things take a dip after Baas. The only non-consensus 4-star I have listed as a center to start more than a year was Molk. The rest are Goodwin (who was fine), Andy Brown, Mealer, Pace (who got hurt), McAvoy, Miller, Bihl (who was fine as 5th year), Khoury, and Christopfel. Ruiz if he pans out may have a case for most important recruit in this class.

Guards and Tackles

Technically the rest of the OL recruits this year are all tackles. Obviously that will change, and many of these guards were brought in as OTs—hell, 6’3 Todd Mossa was listed as an OT by every service before they talked about his potential as a guard, because in high school your ninja awesome OL play tackle.

So let’s add them all to the pile.

Chuck Filiaga (#15(tie)/70 OG/OT recruits since 1995)

Onwenu’s size versus that of most OL recruits really shows here, since Filiaga is the only guy in range to come within 30 pounds. But Filiaga’s height puts him more in line with the OT prospects, of which we have plenty to choose from.

The close grouping of Filiaga’s evals were sometimes hard to narrow down to one or two comparisons, but the general excitement level for this guy should be about where it was for a ton of big Michigan OT recruits who mostly worked out or got hurt, though there were a lot (Simelis, Ziemann, Fox, Zirbel, Zuttah) of the latter.

His college-ready size probably accounts for the close agreement on his rankings, and the scouting reports all seem to concur again that he’s big enough and strong enough but has a lot of technique to go before he’s ready to play. Even eventual 1st pick in the draft Jake Long needed a redshirt year; given Michigan’s depth he may not be afforded that luxury.

Nobody else among Michigan’s recruits or targets is anywhere near this group. They’re actually all pretty comparable to each other, in a big pile of high three-star/low four-star guys of varying success:

Michigan’s O-line recruiting has historically been a bit weird: a lot of high 4-stars and then a lot of large, sorta-generic 3-stars who got a ratings bump. Offensive line is notoriously unpredictable (who would have guessed four years ago that the best OTs in the conference the last two seasons would be a walk-on at MSU and a Division III transfer?) so numbers is good. Parsing the specifics of those numbers is fruitless though.

Michigan’s latest guys seem to be larger than in the past, but for a few slobs who lived up to the less amiable meaning of that sobriquet. Michigan may be looking for guys who can play right away, whereas in the past they could afford to redshirt a 6’6/270 guy and train him up for a few years before having him out there.