It's about time to catch up on all those mailbag questions I asked for last week.

#mgomailbag Who has surprised you most this season?

— Matthew Duprey (@PharmDuprey) December 16, 2019

There have been enough pleasant surprises this season already that I had to double-check my preseason predictions. It's time to toot my own horn: I predicted that Zavier Simpson would add a couple more aspects to his scoring repertoire and was bullish on both Eli Brooks and David DeJulius. I didn't commit as much to calling a Brandon Johns breakout and also implied that he might play more as a small forward in enormous lineups than making any more appearances at center after last year's failed experiment there.

In that context, I'll take Johns, whose emergence as a reliable rotation player at power forward would've been enough for consideration. Playing well at center against tough competition, meanwhile, is not something I saw coming. (We have a "brandon johns is not a center" site tag.) That's been especially important in conjunction with Colin Castleton getting physically overwhelmed at times; he still looks a year away from being a plus option as a backup center against top teams, while Johns hasn't looked out of place banging bodies and blocking shots against athletes from Oregon, Louisville, and UNC.

If we expanded this answer beyond players, I'd probably go with Juwan Howard. More on that later.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

#mgomailbag How much has the last three weeks changed your expectations of this year's team?

— CATBOY HUSBAND (@sportsgeek42) December 16, 2019

At the time this question was asked, this covered both Atlantis and the 1-3 stretch that followed. Despite the bumpy stretch at the end, my expectations have taken a tick upwards. Here's where I was at before the season:

Michigan finishes 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten), fifth in the conference, and gets a five-seed in the NCAA tournament. Zavier Simpson refuses to let Michigan lose to MSU in Crisler. They make it out of the first weekend but lose in the Sweet 16 when their shooting gives out.

That record is (pats own back) precisely what both KenPom and Torvik are projecting right now. I believe Michigan can surpass it by a game or two, however, and they're already on track for a four-seed in the NCAA tournament because of that run through Atlantis.

Franz Wagner isn't remotely where I expect him to be in even the next month or two; the Oregon game, when he dropped 21 points on 13 shots, was a glimpse of his potential, but he sandwiched it between games of four and three points. He's going to be more consistent as he gets more comfortable in his role and that alone should raise this team's ceiling. Given the tough conference schedule, that may not be entirely reflected in the team's Big Ten record, but I love how this team's versatility—and coaching—set up for the postseason tournaments.

#mgomailbag what evidence do we have this early in the season - for or against - that Howard and team's success isn't the Larry Coker effect (bad coach winning big with previous coach's players)?

— Cameron (@CammmmFryzel) December 16, 2019

Quite a bit! Larry Coker is the canonical example of a coach getting one Wile E. Coyote year before the program looks down but he's a bit unfair to use here; if you've watched ESPN's "The U" documentary, you know Miami's players had zero respect for Coker as a coach. Given Juwan Howard's bona fides as a player, NBA assistant, and universally regarded good dude, he was always going to have a better command of the locker room, and that's played out.

Where I've been encouraged the most is with Howard's evident ability as a strategist. He made a huge change to Michigan's pick-and-roll coverage despite the team's previous defensive success; going primarily from the hard hedge to drop coverage has been, in my opinion, an unquestioned success. The team is also running plenty of different sets on offense*, not to mention taking a more free-wheeling, up-tempo approach, and I've really liked how that's taken advantage of the team's personnel and seemingly boosted the confidence of almost everyone on the roster.

Howard has also adapted his strategy as needed depending on the opponent; even when his adjustments haven't paid off, you can understand and support the reasoning behind them. He's a better in-game coach at this point than I expected and that should only improve. Meanwhile, he's recruiting beyond some lofty expectations. At the moment, he's looking like he's fulfilling his personal best-case scenario. This is no Coker.

*I can't encourage you enough to read/watch this thread from Eric Shapiro if you're curious about offensive strategy.

Howard, with an assist from his assistants, has been an excellent strategist. [Campredon]

#mgomailbag I haven't heard the phrase "autobench" once this season. Based on the games thus far, how does Howard approach foul management?

— Trayton Otto (@TraytonO) December 17, 2019

I had to laugh at this stat: according to KenPom's tracking, Michigan is currently 323rd in the nation in two-foul participation—the percentage of time a starter with two fouls in the first half is allowed to play—at a mere 4.3%. John Beilein's squad last year was at 7.0%, which was still 314th, though the year before they finished dead last in D-I at an incredible 0.8%.

Juwan Howard has been fairly rigid with his autobench so far. That hasn't drawn complaints because Michigan has depth at the right spots. They've been able to go to Castleton or Johns for solid minutes when Jon Teske has been in foul trouble. Brooks and DDJ are both very capable of running the offense when Simpson gets a little too handsy on defense. Howard has also still been figuring out his rotation, so foul trouble has been an opportunity to give players a shot to earn minutes.

We'll see if he alters that approach in bigger conference games and the postseason. I'd like to see Teske, in particular, get a longer leash given he's impressively foul-averse (3.0 per 40 minutes) and such an important part of the defense.

#mgomailbag Isaiah Livers took 1 shot in the last 12 min of 2nd half & all of OT against Oregon. Was this because of something Oregon did or something Michigan did not do?

— steven (@cabin__13) December 17, 2019

I think fans need to change how they think of Livers, who's an excellent player and a legit NBA prospect—and, yes, the team's leading scorer—but not someone who creates much offense. He fits the Just A Shooter™ profile even though he's taken almost exactly as many twos (56) as threes (58). 

Even when he's tasked with creating, he's usually pulling up to shoot. On 22 pick-and-roll ballhandler possessions, he's passed out only seven times and taken it all the way to the rim only three times, per Synergy. He's still been efficient with those plays before his of his effective pull-up jumper; he's not a classic ball screen creator. Almost all of his other offense is derived from other players—over a third of his shooting possessions come on spot-ups—or when he's out in transition.

That means his offense is going to come in spurts. The Oregon game was played at a relative crawl, hitting only 69 possessions despite going to overtime. The Ducks prevented Livers from getting anything on the fast break and did a good job sticking with him on the perimeter. Livers isn't going to force his own offense, which is good for Michigan even if it's not for his raw stats. Wagner (21 points) and DDJ (14), particularly the former, essentially played the Livers role for that game, and Livers still scored 13 himself; I don't think his late fade was among the top three reasons M lost.

Any idea why Eli was so unstoppable in the Bahamas and pretty much has been last year Eli on offense since?

— Pete Mortensen (@morepete) December 16, 2019

This one is unfortunately simple: Brooks is still not a good finisher. Here's his season shot chart:

When he gets to the rim, he has a tough time finishing over teams with decent size, and Michigan has faced plenty of size lately. A lot of drives stop short of the rim; those awkward in-between shots aren't falling at a remotely decent clip. His best two-pointers have been step-in jumpers.

Brooks is at his best as a spot-up shooter. This was largely the case when he in Atlantis; while he went 4/5 at the rim against UNC, he was 1-for-6 on twos in the final versus Gonzaga with the only make on a long jumper. He went a combined 6/10 from three in those games. I wouldn't mind seeing much of his on-ball usage shift to DDJ, a stronger ballhandler whose passing is coming along nicely.

How many games do you think wins the B1G this year? It’s looking like it might be as low as 13.

— Tom (@n2j65937191) December 16, 2019

While I have my questions about both Ohio State and Michigan State, they're both currently projected at 14 conference wins, and I suspect someone will be able to get 14 or 15 to take the title—this also feels like a year where a split is relatively likely, with Maryland and Michigan the two teams most in the best position to push the projected top two.

The middle of the conference is looking pretty soft. Purdue isn't living up to preseason expectations, Illinois has disappointed, Wisconsin may be downright bad, Iowa is now Iowa minus Jordan Bohannon, Indiana lost by 20 at Wisconsin before needing OT to beat Nebraska at home, Penn State and Minnesota are Penn State and Minnesota, and Rutgers is somehow in this group. Then you have two horrible teams in Nebraska and Northwestern. If one or two teams put it together to the point they can win on the road against the middle of the pack, a decent win total will get posted.

Hi Ace,
In looking at the Big Ten schedule this season, is there a candidate for "schedule loss" or "schedule win" based on the spacing and timing of the games? Thanks!

— Ho-Ho-Hoover Street Rag (@hooverstreet) December 17, 2019

The game that stands out to me as potentially going worse than it should because of the timing is the trip to Minnesota on January 12th, which comes only three days after a home date with Purdue, which itself is only four days after a trip to East Lansing. KenPom only projects that as a one-point win before you get into the potential trap aspects.

While I'm not calling this a schedule win, Michigan does get to face Ohio State at home when both teams will be coming off short rest. Even though that impacts both teams, it should help to be at home for that one.

That's it from me until a short UMass-Lowell preview on Friday and the subsequent recap on Sunday. Happy holidays, everyone.