Haknpoints Returns a Starts Record Comment Count

Seth

Meta: New interim column name is interim. Rhymes with "talkin' points" if you have a heavy Midwest accent. Hakn means to nag in Yiddish, literally to bang on […a pot or teakettle]. The reference.

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Every touch is a little bit of magic. [Fuller]

Early last month Brian forwarded me a reader question about the relative experience of Michigan's players, and asked for a lot of research:

What has been the average age and game experience of each of the teams’ skill groups over the course of the season for each of Hoke’s years coaching here?

I’d love to see a table or graph that showed age/game experience by skill group by year of tenure for all the skill groups.  Just data.

Everyone says – players aren’t developing.  I’m not sure whether it’s true or a function of getting better but younger less experienced guys on the field.

My impression Defense is improving – and that’s where Hoke started recruiting (if memory serves) – those are some of his third year guys now (still juniors and RS Sophs) – getting better all the time.  Offense – a year behind defense from age/experience.  Mostly Sophs and RS Fresh.  If that pattern is right and holds, a defense of 4th and 3rd year guys next year and an offense of 3rd and second year guys should continue to improve the product.  No?

Off the cuff, we were plotting out age progression of Hoke's recruiting classes back in 2012 (when most of the 2013 class was signed) and concluding that 2015 was the probable germination point. I think a big part of why Hoke was let go was Michigan doesn't at all seem on track for that to happen. As Hackett mentioned in his press conference, the 2015 team should be one of the most experienced we've fielded in memory across the board (provided there's no mass exodus, which is hardly a guarantee).

Yay for Good News! How Good's Our GNews?

To get a real answer I really think we'd need other teams to compare it with, and that's way too much work. Also not all positions are created equal and relative experience does not say how quality the experienced players are: the 2003 and 2005 teams were nearly identical, but the 2003 was one of the best under Lloyd while the latter we thought of at the time as painful. Deciding which positions mature at what rate and have which effect of outcome is beyond the scope of this study.  But I found two ways to approximate an answer:

1) Long ago I started keeping a spreadsheet of players, going back to the mid-'90s, with what years they were on the roster, when they left, and why. With some updating that was able to produce a list of how many scholarship players Michigan had available each year back to '97, broken up by year-in-program and eligibility and whatnot. By that count Michigan has the oldest team in 2015 in the post-championship era, with 85 accumulated years (average at UM for 1997-2014 is 68) since high school on offense and 83 (average is 61) on defense.

2) I scoured the Bentley team history pages (the links at the right on that page), for how many starts each player had. This turned out to be quite the rabbit hole, hence why it took me so long to produce a response. After fixing a bazillion duplicates and spelling errors and whatnots (like for example they have the Gordons mixed up), I had a list of starts by season of every Michigan player going back to 1994, which I've put on Google Docs for your perusal.

There's some other good tabs at that link if you like exploration.

[Money chart and more after the jump]

startschart

cklik bkligkens.

Things I did:

  • Combined RBs, FBs, and TEs into a single spectral category.
  • Counted rush OLBs in a 3-4 (LaMarr Woodley, James Hall, Glen Steele, etc.) as DL so the numbers don't get all skewed from minor variations in defensive schema. All Jake Ryan things were counted as a LB, all Brennan Beyer things as DL, despite both playing virtually the same position. If you want to argue that hit the comments.
  • Counted 3-3-5 Spurs as linebackers. This affects the Gordons and how Stevie Brown's safety experience applied to 2010.
  • Counted deathbackers in 2010's 3-3-5 as LBs because that's how GERG used them/him/Roh.
  • Treated Funchess as leaving early, but everyone else staying. I am going off of nothing more than you have, which are eyes.
  • Removed pre-season injuries but not mid-season ones.
  • Some of those starts may be on the other side of the ball (e.g. Heitzman's) but I left them in.

Yellow are defense, blue hues are offense. What we're measuring are the total number of returning starts at those positions at the start of each season. Here are the constituent numbers (top is bolded):

Season QBs RBs/TEs WRs OLine Off | Dline LBs DBs DEF Total
2015 2 55 22 94 173 | 41 66 72 179 352
Average 13 33 27 62 135 | 42 38 57 137 272
2014 17 30 21 34 102 | 50 44 76 170 272
2013 4 26 28 58 116 | 44 59 71 174 290
2012 26 24 29 61 140 | 42 58 89 189 329
2011 13 42 83 70 208 | 70 25 56 151 359
2010 12 29 49 82 172 | 37 58 20 115 287
2009 4 25 43 76 148 | 18 34 37 89 237
2008 0 31 12 16 59 | 56 14 60 130 189
2007 37 40 18 61 156 | 12 17 60 89 245
2006 24 37 17 50 128 | 36 27 86 149 277
2005 12 32 24 77 145 | 47 31 30 108 253
2004 0 21 33 56 110 | 11 30 63 104 214
2003 29 18 21 76 144 | 47 28 45 120 264
2002 16 31 21 36 104 | 82 31 63 176 280
2001 4 40 13 22 79 | 36 52 48 136 215
2000 0 30 11 107 148 | 10 15 59 84 232
1999 13 13 12 88 126 | 73 34 48 155 281
1998 15 49 25 73 162 | 45 55 54 154 316
1997 25 48 23 50 146 | 46 39 54 139 285

So: things.

Offense: By number of previous starts the 2015 roster looks to be in better shape than any since 2011, when Hoke inherited 359 total starts. The RB/TE spectrum is as experienced as any in the study and the offensive line brings back the most combined starts of any group since the legendary 2000 one (and only two of them are seniors!) The receiving minus Funchess is average, about on par with the first year Braylon, Avant and Breaston were all together.

Then there's the quarterback situation, which could bring the whole enterprise down. Because I could only count starts instead of total snaps, it looks like Morris has a step on Drew Henson. Here's the starting QB candidates in years after The Guy graduated:

Player Elig Prior to G Att Yds YPA TD INT
Tom Brady Jr 1998 6 22 115 5.23 0 1
Scott Dreisbach Sr 1998 16 457 2947 6.45 15 12
Drew Henson Jr 2000 16 171 852 4.98 6 3
John Navarre So 2001 5 88 549 6.24 8 1
Denard Robinson So 2010 10 100 549 5.49 7 4
Devin Gardner Jr 2013 13 238 1655 6.95 13 6
Shane Morris Jr 2015 8 102 457 4.48 0 5

(freshmen excised)

I'm happy the Henson comparison is still in the ballpark, though Shane would love to have a 2-1 TD/INT ratio. Henson's sophomore year didn't display anything like the brilliant junior season he'd put up with that 2000 o-line. However the existence of huge upside doesn't change the plausibility of huge downside.

Hopping back to the start chart, you'll note 2003, 2006, 2007, and 2012 were the only years Michigan had a quarterback with 20 more starts entering the season. We lost 2007 and 2012 to those quarterbacks being injured; 2003 and 2006 were the best offensive years under Carr. This spot does indeed matter.

Defense: Second only to 2012 in overall starts returning. That year was weird, as the defense was in its second season of an overhaul under Mattison, and pocked by lots of dudes with starting experience from 2009 and 2010—Floyd, Kovacs, Roh, Avery, Cam Gordon—which they probably wouldn't have had if better talent was available to those teams (all due respect to upperclassman Kovacs, but freshman Kovacs and free safety Kovacs were harrowing experiences).

The 2015 team projects to not be so concentrated on one position group; the defensive line returns an average amount of experience, the linebackers are a record thanks to Desmond Morgan's extra year, and the defensive backfield is also among the most seasoned. I'd liken the defense to the 2002 team except it's the linebacking corps instead of the DL.

All told, Michigan should return the most experienced team since the one Brady Hoke inherited. Let's hope it remains as intact.

Comments

Ron Utah

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:15 PM ^

Love this stuff.

There is a very real possibility that the new coach could have Hoke-like success his first season (assuming there is not too much attrition); the schedule sets-up nicely as well.  I will be disappointed if we don't beat either MSU or OSU next year, regardless of whom we hire.

I'm tired of waiting.

Logan88

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:32 PM ^

 

I will be disappointed if we don't beat either MSU or OSU next year, regardless of whom we hire.

In the immortal words of the Dread Pirate Westley: Get used to disappointment.

 

Acutally, I think UM might be able to beat MSU next season if a bunch of Sparty's good juniors leave for the NFL. OSU...not so much.

 

HipsterCat

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^

If we can get someone to play well at QB we have a chance, nothing more than a chance, hopefully morris/speight will make a jump in the offseason. Otherwise we will almost certainly be facing two losses against MSU and OSU. We really shouldn't be assuming any victories considering we dont even have a coach yet...

JTrain

December 4th, 2014 at 7:42 AM ^

We need a QB that can hurt you. Not necessarily Peyton Manning..but someone that has the ability to carve the other team up if they try and over blitz or sell out on the run. I have a feeling if we stay the course in terms of offensive style (more MANBALL than spread)...our running game will do some damage next year. We need QB tho that can read a D and cut your effing heart out if you over commit to the run.

Big_H

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:07 PM ^

I honestly don't know about beating MSU next year.. Their quarterback Cook has basically already came out and said he will be back for his senior season. I think they only lose one maybe two on their offensive line. The defense will be good again most likely. So, it will be a very tough to win game.

 

I pray that we get them next year though!!

MI Expat NY

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^

What's striking about that chart is that 2008 saw the single unit (offense) with the least returning experience since 1997 followed by, just eyeballing it, the third or fourth least experienced unit in 2009 (defense).  Puts it into perspective what Rodriguez was working with his first couple years.  While Hoke's teams were getting less and less experienced as the 2010/2011 classes worked there way through, it's nothing like the first couple years for Rodriguez.

jackw8542

December 4th, 2014 at 6:45 AM ^

I did a quick overall average, and over Hoke's 4 years the average was 312.5, and over RR's 3 years the average was 237.7, with 2008 indicating no chance on offense and 2009 and 2010 little to no chance on defense.  The numbers for 2009-10 are consistent with the "Decimated Defense" diaries of Misopogon during that time frame.  The zero in the QB column for 2008 is sort of the cherry on top for negligible offensive player experience.

MGlobules

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:32 PM ^

and beyond the call of duty. Kudos! And someone send this to Harbaugh, pronto, in case he needs any convincing that he should be able to get wins his first year.

ca_prophet

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^

That straight line up from the bare cupboard in 2007 to 2011, and then the straight line down. This is exactly why people keep saying we have a young team, but if we don't lose people 2015 looks to be the most experienced team since the 11-2 squad. It's all about whether our QB problems can be fixed by the new coaches or not.

MGoUberBlue

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^

But my take on all of this relates to the players' virtual universal negative reaction to the dismissal of Brady Hoke.

Look guys.............I appreciate the work that you put in to make the UM Wolverines a better team, but...........maybe Brady would still be around if you guys just (1) blocked better, (2) threw passes to our team not the opponent, (3) held on to the damn football, (4) ran north rather than east, west or stopping, (5) on and on and on......

Go Blue!

MayOhioEatTurds

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:48 PM ^

Great post. 

Original statistical analysis is one of the things that makes MGoBlog superior.  Keep it coming. 

Yeah, 2008 is just pain.  Not only was the entire team extraordinarily experienced, after Mallett jumped ship there was no QB experience at all.  (Some would go so far as to say there was no QB talent at all, either.)  

As oft-maligned as RR's Michigan recruiting and retention is, I have to wonder looking at Seth's chart--doesn't LLLLLLoyd also bear some responsibility for failing to stock the cupboard?  For 2008, at least? 

I recognize there was some serious attrition going on during the LLLLLLoyd-to-RR handoff, but I'm thinking LLLLLLoyd may bear some responsibility for it.  At the very least he told Mallett to run for the high grass.  No doubt that worked out well for Mallett, but it makes me wonder about LLLLLLoyd's "Michigan Man" index:  What ever happend to "The team, the team, the team"? 

gbdub

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:48 PM ^

So Hoke's teams have definitely gotten younger, but then they aren't really "young" overall relative to a lot of late Carr teams. Are we being misled by looking at experience instead of class year? Obviously starts are important, but the 20th start of a guy who apprenticed behind a star for 2 years is probably worth more than the 20th start of a guy forced into action because no one else was available.



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Seth

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^

Class year did correlate with winning as much. I did run it, and had an entire section that took awhile to build that I just deleted because it was getting long.

YSHS="Years since high school" which is sophsx1+jrsx2 etc.

Offense 5th Sr Jr So Fr YSHS Defense 5th Sr Jr So Fr YSHS
2015 4 10 16 7 4 85 2015 3 14 10 9 1 83
2014 1 4 11 16 7 54 2014 1 7 14 10 9 63
2013 4 4 4 11 17 47 2013 3 5 7 14 10 55
2012 5 6 7 5 11 57 2012 3 7 7 8 15 55
2011 4 12 7 7 6 73 2011 6 5 8 8 11 63
2010 3 5 12 9 10 60 2010 5 9 5 8 12 65
2009 5 8 5 12 9 66 2009 0 7 11 7 11 50
2008 1 7 9 8 16 51 2008 6 5 8 13 7 68
2007 2 8 10 11 9 63 2007 3 8 5 8 13 54
2006 8 4 8 13 11 73 2006 6 7 10 9 9 74
2005 5 10 5 9 13 69 2005 3 9 7 10 9 63
2004 6 7 11 5 10 72 2004 1 9 10 8 12 59
2003 8 10 7 12 7 88 2003 6 4 10 10 8 66
2002 4 11 10 10 12 79 2002 5 9 7 10 10 71
2001 6 7 11 10 11 77 2001 3 8 9 7 10 61
2000 3 8 10 13 10 69 2000 1 5 8 9 7 44
1999 6 5 9 10 13 67 1999 4 5 5 8 10 49
1998 6 9 6 13 10 76 1998 7 4 6 6 8 58
1997 2 9 10 10 13 65 1997 2 8 8 6 6 54
Avg 4 8 9 10 10 68 Avg 4 7 8 9 9 61

 

what would Bo do

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:59 PM ^

I also looked at the R Squared value for the data for YSHS for both Offense and Defense.

Off - .3821

Def - .0005 (negative correlation)

The analysis, like that of previous starts says that experience (be it years since HS or prior starts) is substantially more important on offense than defense.

rags0075

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^

i didnt read this in detail..but 2014 numbers are similar to 2006 numbers and yet we were a few plays away from playing in the NC game then....whats the similar statistic on Ohio or Alabama? It seems as though playing at that 350 count can happen only once in a while..Looks like a true champion coach will win games and compete in championships despite being only at that 250 number..

tolmichfan

December 4th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^

That 2006 team had Great defensive talent, the problem with this analysis is it just takes straight time into consideration without takeing actual talent. 2006 had Leon Hal, Alan Branch, Lamar Woodly, and David Harris on it. All those guys are above average NFL players and have had staying power in the NFL, who on this team can you compare to those guys alone to. Maybe Jake Ryan, Frank Clark isn't as good as Woodly, Lewis might get as good as Hall, but this is his first year to actual play significant downs, The only guy you could come close to comparing to Alan Branch true freshman Mone. On offense this years teams talent doesn't even come close to 2006. Gardner was worth 2 turnovers a game, they don't have a future number one pick at left tackle or a reciever as good as Steve Breston and Mario Manningham. Plus we had Mike Hart at running back. It's Apples to Oranges.

Seth

December 4th, 2014 at 4:18 PM ^

Yup. I did find some strong correlation though, especially with offense and offensive line.

Correlation Off Eff. Def Eff. AP Rank
Returning Starts -0.571 -0.086 -0.345
Yrs in Program -0.456 0.011 -0.436
Line Starts -0.573 -0.121 -0.339
Line Yrs in Program -0.297 0.269 -0.039
QB/LB Starts -0.309 0.193 -0.156
WR/DB Starts -0.204 -0.179 -0.045

The things I correlated them to are S&P+ rankings for O and D where available, and where not I averaged the scoring and YPP ranks. For AP rank when not available I used combined S&P+ and FEI rank from Football Outsiders. 

The negative correlations are what we're looking for, since rank goes down (toward #1 overall) as the experience goes up. I highlighted where the R's were signficant, which was on offense, and offensive line specifically.

Defense didn't have such a strong correlation, especially at LB and DL age. I would guess those are two positions that were dramatically affected by the quality of coaching and other factors. Ezeh and Mouton starts the the main components from the biggest linebacker experience scores and you remember how awful their play was.

The DL has some major outliers, for example the 2010 DL was experienced but the secondary was such a shambles and we rushed so few guys all that talent and experience was wasted against double-teams. On the other hand Carr had three of the youngest DLs in 2000, 2001, and 2007 and got by. They got really lucky to not have major DL injuries in 00-01. You'll remember by 2002 Lazarus, Heuer and Bowman and Rumishek and Orr and Stevens and Kashama were a really solid DL. Those were also the seven best DL on the 2000 line--the only upperclassmen were Eric Wilson and Jake Frysinger. We got away with that in 2000 because of good linebackers and good young players. I'd guess on the aggregate, DL probably reach close to their ceilings as soon as they max out on their playing weight, sometime between sophomore and junior.

tolmichfan

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:49 PM ^

I think it is hilarious that you happened to finish your "research" the day after Hoke gets fired. Now you have an article to calm the masses cause next year it won't "matter" who the coach is.

bstaub32

December 4th, 2014 at 7:41 AM ^

I was thinking the same thing...

It looks like the regression was actually because we were getting younger each year while building up roster depth, but all anyone wanted to talk about is year FOUR this and year FOUR that...

I'm fine with firing Hoke if we get a Miles or a Harbaugh, anyone less I'm less than thrilled with.

westwardwolverine

December 4th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^

The problem with your analysis:

According to the data, there were 5 years where Carr had fewer starts this year than Hoke. On top of that, Hoke returned a starting (5th year senior) QB which is proving to be the most important position. At no point did Carr dip to 5-7.

Unlike Rodriguez, who has the most glaring outlier on the chart with 59(!) starts on offense in 2008 - in his first year! - Hoke has no such excuse for going 5-7 in a weak conference in 2014. You also have to compare this data to the schedule: Its one thing to lose to MSU and OSU. Its another thing to get blown out by mediocre to slightly above average Notre Dame, Utah and Minnesota as well as lose to Rutgers and Maryland. 

bstaub32

December 4th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^

Carr may not have dipped to 5-7 but would the sentiment be any different even if we were 7-5? No, it wouldn't.

He may not have experience with starts, but I guarantee he never started a true freshman at left tackle or had an offense with only 1 senior in the starting lineup.

It was Gardner's 3rd system in his 5 years, and he was a spread QB...

Notre Dame looked a lot like we did last year early in the season then fizzled.

Utah, Minnesota, and Maryland only have 1 bad loss on their schedules and had good seasons, all with experienced teams.

Rutgers should have been a win.

westwardwolverine

December 4th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^

No because I would never lead the charge to fire a coach after one year. 

Hoke had his chance. He failed miserably. Its over. And he doesn't even have anything close to the excuses Rodriguez had nor the pedigree (as is being proven over in Tucson). 

tolmichfan

December 4th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

I guess winning a sugar bowl is failing miserably. Its interesting that you keep bring RR up. I personally thought he got a raw deal too, but Hokes worst year equals RR second best year at Michigan. Now that Hokes gone are you going to give the next guy a chance? Or are you still so but hurt over RR that no one will be good enough for you. It was time to move on from RR 4 years ago. Now all the RR apologists just look bitter.

Jonesy

December 4th, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^

That Sugar Bowl was won on the back of Denard in spite of his misuse and a ridiculously lucky fumble recovery rate.  Carr left the cupboard bare, RR didn't outside of the offensive line.  I liked both coaches but neither one got the job done.  For whatever reason RR couldn't score against good teams and had no defense whatsoever, and for whatever reason Hoke could recruit the best players but get astoundingly little out of them once they got here.

SECcashnassadvantage

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^

Zero TDs and plenty of INTs. I don't care about attempts, when completion percentage is below 35%. He can't throw a football on time at this level. I pray a miracle happens and he improves.

what would Bo do

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:38 PM ^

I plotted the data in excel and plotted each column versus wins to see what the R squared values would be for each position group.  Results:

QB - .2157

Backs- .0837

WR- .0102

OL-.0854

DL-.0209

LB - .0034 (actually had a negative correlation with winning)

DB- .015

ALL OFF - .226

ALL DEF - .0176

TOTAL - .2391

Seth's assertion that QB experience means the most of any position group is backed by the data.  I was also very surprised at how much greater the correlation to winning offensive starts were.

what would Bo do

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:44 PM ^

After looking at the data, I was curious to see what the data would look like without the 2008 data point with 0 QB starts as that is such an extreme data point.

Upon further review, after removing the 2008 data point, the updated numbers look like this:

QB - .1324

OFF - .0634

TOTAL - .0966

This shows how sensitive data of such a small sample size is to data points on the extreme to either side of the scale.  

Seth

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:48 PM ^

Needs better data. So many of the linebacker starts in there are Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton and lots of dudes not that bad but hardly as good as even Desmond Morgan as a true freshman. On the other hand the quarterback experience may be overblown because you have performances in there that are less about how many starts a guy's had, and more to do with the fact that TOM BRADY, DREW HENSON, CHAD HENNE, AND DENARD ROBINSON are good at footballs.

LKLIII

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:49 PM ^

There was a diary a while back that deduced that the number of starts was more critical to OLine performance rather than class year. The same study concluded interior experience was more critical than the tackles.

What also strikes me is the massive swing in number of starts for the OLine in 2014 vs 2015 compared to the average. 2014 we were far below; 2015 is far above. Late this year the OLine ceased being terrible and became adequate. By big ten play next year are they road graders?


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Seth

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:59 PM ^

There's considerable reason to believe they will be fairly good, yes. Mason Cole will probably be great considering how good he's been as a true freshman.

But it could all get screwed up with a bad hire. Weird as it may seem, retaining Darrell Funk might not be a bad idea. He's a zone dude who's doing better now that he's teaching it.

westwardwolverine

December 4th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^

That's the quiet little secret about this year: The offensive line has actually improved throughout the year (I was skeptical) and really been better start to finish. 

What's sad is that I felt that was all we needed to make the leap from last year's performance into a 10-2 record this year. 

gbdub

December 4th, 2014 at 9:37 AM ^

I still worry that Funk takes too long to get from "raw high schooler" to "reasonably competent", even if he's really good at higher level stuff. Maybe he's not a great teacher of the rawest basics but a great honer of guys who are mostly there.

But maybe you're right and it's a system thing. Of course that would be an even bigger indictment of Hoke, if he chose to run a system that was ill-suited not only to his players, but to his coaches as well, simply because "This is Michigan".



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Jevablue

December 3rd, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^

Absolutely love the analysis.  Theory and practice are always in tension and are also diverging to some extent.  Such as the radical divergence of results vs expected outcomes regarding the "as recruited" talent of Michigan and the several teams it lost to this year.  Of course this year (and last) made no sense, hence we have a new coaching regime about to start.

There is reason to believe that a new and effective coaching staff can have immediate success on top of the fact that we have a team that is highly experienced in the aggregate.  This team very likely has a lot more intrinsic talent relative to most of the teams it will face next year.  I remember seeing a recruiting analysis a few weeks or so ago on this blog whereby M was shown to be within 2 notches of LSU in talent on average over the last 10 years running.  Certainly more than enough to be successful.

It is not irrational exhuberance to look at the experience, the raw talent and the prospect of a coaching staff that is not bewildered by its counterparts to expect a rapid return to relevance, if not dominance by this team.  And with an O-line that has shown great development over the year, M will not necessarily need the 2nd coming of Johnny Football to be successful.

Color me bullish on the the bullshit ending in 15.

 

Seth

December 4th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^

Sam Webb nailed it on the radio this morning. Hoke and Mattison gave the defense an identity in 2011 and helped get those guys performing closer to their potential. The offense already had an identity, which began to get stripped away as their offensive coaches tried to instill a different one. Sam also said that Hoke, like Rodriguez, doomed himself by bringing Borges along. Ask yourself this: where would Michigan be right now if Hoke had retained Calvin Magee and left him to run the offense?

gbdub

December 4th, 2014 at 9:40 AM ^

Hoke didn't forget anything, but maybe he never knew how to get an offense (or at least the kind of offense he wanted Michigan to run) to perform up to its potential.

Likewise, RR can craft a great offense, but can't sustain a defense without a good DC and assistants. Based on Seth's numbers, both coaches underachieved on one side of the ball relative to experience.



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pescadero

December 4th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

RR won 70% of his games (playing in the Big East) prior to coming to Michigan. RR has won 68% of his games (playing in the PAC12)since leaving Michigan.

 

Brady Hoke was a sub .500 career coach at Ball St. and SDSU.

 

RR didn't forget how to coach, and Hoke never knew how to coach all that well.

Jevablue

December 4th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^

In retrospect, one could call into question a lot of what happened in 2011.  But who the heck was in a mood to quibble after the preceding 3 years? In the Sugar Bowl to say that Bud Foster did not make Al Borges into his personal Bitch (less than 200 yds offense) would be simply false.  Narduzzi did the same thing in that year's loss to sparty.  Yet that said, the offense still had enough pieces to weather the decline that was already beginning to occur.  Mattison shored up a literally historically bad defense, and hence we had a very good year in Hoke's first year.  Hoke and RRod were both simply half a loaf, each in different ways.

To watch the last 2 years and tally up all of the obviously unnecessary losses to inferiorly talented teams and not think the staff was belwildered by its coaching competition would be akin to denying the existence of gravity.

bstaub32

December 4th, 2014 at 10:19 AM ^

How many "unnecessary losses to inferiorly talented teams" do you tally? I have 2: Rutgers this year and @ Penn State (even though game was a pick spread wise) last year.

By that rationale, every Alabama loss is unnecessary because they are favored every week for the last 5 years because of their superior talent, yet still lose a game or 2 every year.

Jevablue

December 4th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^

2013 UConn and Akron were possibly the two ugliest wins in contemporary school history

PSU -  27 for 27 or something like that, 2 stops in an OT that Hoke literally coached us into in the first place.  Having success running the inverted veer but insisting on man ball instead most of the time.

Iowa 2013  Nebraska 2013 (similar MO regarding offense as PSU)

2014  Rutgers!!!!  Maryland!!!!  Minnesota (sticking way to long with Morris. I do not buy into how that is a more intrinsically talented team than M)  Utah - Should this M team have been blown out here? 

I guess if one reduces their expectations sufficiently then one can say that 5-7 is not on Hoke. I look at a program who's ten year running recruiting average is in the same neighborhood as LSU and conclude that talent is not being developed. 

Also, flip it around, how many stunning upsets did Michigan achieve under Hoke?

Ugly wins, wretchedly ugly losses, with multiple classes of predominantly highly rated recruits he recruited. A 5th year senior at QB. Geez, what does it take?