After a bye week to re-charge our batteries, FFFF makes its triumphant return for rivalry week and the clash for Paul Bunyan on Saturday night in Ann Arbor. The Spartan offense enters this year's matchup amid a bumpy season, one that saw them in a groove during the early non-conference before things went sideways in P5 matchups. However, they are also coming off a get-right bye week and are riding an OT win against Wisconsin, so confidence should not be completely absent. 

 

The Film: MSU has dealt with rather significant injuries this season, moreso on defense than an offense, but some have hit this side of the ball. Star WR Jayden Reed missed the Washington game and took a little bit of time to get back up to speed fully and thus I felt that it was a good idea to tilt the film more towards the present. Since their most recent opponent, Wisconsin, has a pretty good defense, going with the most recent game made the most sense. So, Wisconsin it is, though I did look at the extended highlights of all the other games against P5 opponents to inform the writing of this piece. 

Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF: 

Michigan State returns second year starter Payton Thorne, who has taken a step back from last season. After posting 27 TD to 10 INT at 8.3 Y/A in 13 games last season, the QB is throwing for fewer scores, turning it over more, and not throwing it as deep. The numbers this year? 11 TD to 7 INT at 7.2 Y/A over seven games. Thorne's performance can best be described as fire-and-ice, often within the course of an entire game. He'll make several horrendous, interceptable throws, and then toss out a few daggers. We will investigate that more in the HenneChart section. 

Last year MSU featured a fella by the name of Kenneth Walker III who you may remember. He was pretty good! Walker now resides in Seattle and the NFL, forcing the Spartans to deal with the inevitable drop-off of not having a RB who can snap his fingers and make a 50 yard rush happen out of nowhere. They hit the portal for the replacements, getting Jalen Berger from Wisconsin and Jarek Broussard from Colorado, with Berger receiving the lion's share of carries so far. It started as a tandem between the two but Berger seized the upperhand as the schedule got tougher, with Broussard only getting three carries in each of the last three games.

Broussard may have been Wally Pipp'd by Elijah Collins, who I was stunned to learn was still in college when he emerged against Maryland in week 5. Collins, longtime FFFF readers may remember, was the bellcow of the 2019 Spartans, Dantonio's last team. He rushed 222 times that season for nearly 1,000 yards and did it in only his second year of college football. But then he just... vanished. Collins fell to third on the depth chart in 2020 under Tucker and was buried underneath KWIII last season. After starting the season on the bench, Collins got some play in non-garbage time against Maryland and then rushed it 14 times against Wisconsin, nearly as many as Berger. If that game is any indication, Collins may now be the #2, offering a huskier (225 lbs.) contrast to Berger (205). 

At receiver, the star Jayden Reed returns. Though he's dealt with injuries this season, Reed is still a dynamic home-run threat who can also bring in his fair share of contested catches. He's this week's Dangerman. Speaking of contested catches, leapy half-basketball player/half-football player Keon Coleman is in the midst of a fun breakout season. He was on the verge of star status and could earn one by the end of the season. Those two make up a very nice duo, with Tre Mosley returning as the third receiving option, still the go-over-the-middle-and-sit-down guy. The top three WRs have combined for 86 catches this season, while the next closest WR has seven (Germie Bernard). Other WRs include Montorie Foster, Cade McDonald, and Christian Fitzpatrick. I have nothing of note to say about them. 

At TE, Tyler Hunt returns as the blocking TE who is terrible at blocking. I was not a fan of his last season when I charted the Spartans and my assessment of Hunt has not changed. He also isn't a major asset in the receiving game. Illinois transfer Daniel Barker is a better receiver, while ex-Purdue transfer Maliq Carr has only six catches but one particularly big one against Wisconsin (more on that later). The TEs are still a relatively muted element of the passing game like last season. 

The MSU offensive line was defined by its mass rotation in 2021, mixing in as many as nine or ten linemen during the course of a game. This year it is more static, and that is not necessarily a good thing. This group has struggled to keep Thorne clean consistently and has not been able to open running lanes against P5 competition. Problems start right up the gut with center Nick Samac, who was their worst lineman in the game I charted. Returning starter Jarrett Horst lines up at LT, narrowly avoiding a cyan after an iffy effort against the Badgers as a pass protector. Opposite him is new starter Spencer Brown, who I thought might have been MSU's best blocker in the game I charted, but he did not look great in the footage I saw from other contests. At LG, JD Duplain returns as a starter. I didn't have many chartable plays from Duplain but he looked fine. PFF is a big fan of his, but take that for all the salt in the salt mines. Matt Carrick starts at RG and he was a mess against Wisconsin, particularly as a run blocker, earning a cyan as well.

I don't normally talk about special teams but I do want to throw two notes out there, as the specialists have gone in diverging directions. Bryce Baringer and his rocket launcher leg is still around, averaging 51.40 yards per punt, tops in the NCAA. Meanwhile on the flip side, kicking has been a bit of a debacle. Jack Stone is 15/16 on XPs and 1/3 on FGs, his lone make coming from 43 against Akron. Ben Patton has also kicked some, doing the XPs against Wisconsin, while missing his lone FG attempt of the season against Maryland. The game against the Badgers also saw a potential game-winning FG go awry before it could even be attempted, after Baringer fumbled the snap, forcing him to improvise and throw an interception. The reason I bring this up is so viewers of Saturday's game can keep in mind the struggles of the MSU kicking game if/when they decide to go for it on 4th down in plus territory. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More bunts, fewer dingers]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Michigan State runs a spread offense, as they have every year of the Tucker era. They operate mostly out of the shotgun and play primarily in 11 personnel, with a decent dose of 12 as well. Formation chart: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	29	4	26	88%
Under Center	4	3	1	12%

One upside of doing the game against Wisconsin is that it was a normal football game, unlike the Minnesota or Ohio State games, where MSU was trailing nearly the entire game and thus had to throw the ball more than what is perhaps optimal. In this one, we got to see what the Spartans would prefer to do in a tight, competitive contest. What I learned is that they want to Establish the Run: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	17	11
2nd	13	8
3rd	2	13
4th	1	1

MSU likes to run early in downs but saw their third down distribution skewed heavily towards the pass, partially because they don't run successfully enough to be able to run in third down situations. 

Base Set: Like I said, Michigan State plays primarily in 11 personnel, generic looking stuff like this: 

They flex the TE out a decent amount to play in 11 personnel but it looks like 4 wide: 

That's the TE Carr lined up to the bottom of the screen. Here's your standard 12 look: 

Interestingly, I never saw 12 personnel twins. Every time they lined up with two TEs, either the TEs were on opposite sides or the receivers were on opposite sides (as is the case here). 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: MSU was mostly running zone concepts against Wisconsin, which places them in the Basketball on Grass category. The Spartans alternated between split zone and outside zone (stretch) as their two base plays, with the usual dose of inside zone mixed in. When they moved to gap plays, Counter GT was most common, but gap plays made up a very small percentage of their rushing plays in this game.  

Hurry it up or grind it out: The Spartans are much like last season, a standard team in terms of pace but with doses of tempo. Those worked against Michigan in several notable instances in last year's game, but the Wolverines have handled tempo better on defense this season as a whole, so it may not be as much of a vulnerability. Still, I'd expect it to be peppered in from time to time to try and keep the Michigan defense off kilter. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Last year we gave Thorne a 6 and I'm sticking with that number. Thorne is still not a super speedy runner or a major threat in the rushing game, getting a zone read or two each week, but his scrambling ability is something that needs to be on the scouting report. He had a scramble to pick up a crucial first down in this game: 

More often, Thorne's scrambling ability doesn't show itself in him running for positive yardage, but rather in him extending plays before he can make a pass. With a leaky offensive line in front of him, Thorne is forced to roll out often, in addition to design QB rollouts, which are a component of the offense. You can make the case that Thorne's legs are a bigger element of the passing game than the rushing game as a result, and when I show you OL clips, you will be able to see some instances of Thorne's play-extension skills.  

Dangerman: This year's person of interest on the MSU offense is WR Jayden Reed, who was deserving of Dangerman status last year, even if it went to KW3. Reed made the game-changing catch in the meeting between these two teams last year, a 4th down fade over good coverage from Daxton Hill. Michigan fans who have that one burned into their memory ought to understand why Reed is the Dangerman this year. 

Though he's battled injuries, Reed's nature as a home run threat in the receiving game is still there and even when he's not ripping off big plays, he remains Payton Thorne's favorite target. Reed was targeted 9 times against Wisconsin to lead the team, and was targeted 7 times the week before, also the team lead. When Reed is healthy and functional, he's often the first read on a passing play. When it was time to go win the game against the Badgers, you knew who the ball was going to: 

Thorne has had wavering accuracy at times this season, but that tough catch ability of Reed to do something out of the circus helps his QB out quite a bit: 

This was ruled a catch in addition to the flags.

MSU has been throwing more screens than last season (we'll talk about that more later) and Reed plays a part in that: 

Not exactly optimal blocking on that play, but I wanted to note that it's there. Most of the targets to Reed are going to be somewhere in between an acrobatic catch, a big play, or a screen. Just stuff like this: 

That clip is a good way to showcase the shiftiness that makes Reed a good punt returner and is the final dimension to why he's such a weapon. Reed's good at making tough catches, he's fast enough to hit a big play, and he's agile enough to get yards after the catch. An easy choice this year.

HenneChart: So let's talk about Payton Thorne. Coming into the season I was pretty high on Thorne but this has been a bumpy campaign and represents a step backward in his effectiveness. Like I said in the personnel section, Thorne's stats have seen a decline pretty across the board. Well, except for one category, which is completion percentage. He's completing more passes, which is linked to the decline in yards per attempt. In other words, he's throwing more screens. A quick look at my charting from this year compared to last year reveals that. This year: 

MSU vs. Wisco.	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Payton Thorne	3	8	1		2	2		1	-	4	1		67%	6

Last year: 

MSU vs. Neb	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Payton Thorne	-	10	2		1	1		2	1	4	-		63%	2

The DSR didn't change much, though Wisconsin represented a much better performance for Thorne than other games this year. However, that "screens" column is the big one. Last season the MSU offense was the Never Bunt, Hit Dingers Offense, alternating between long periods of ineffectiveness with short spurts of brilliance in the form of explosive plays. KW3 played a key role in that but so did Thorne's deep ball and vertical passing. It still makes an appearance, but not as effective as it was last year and the passing game is much shorter than last season. They're throwing more quick outs and screens, which I couldn't help but wonder if it is related to Thorne's struggles with accuracy that have led to some ugly INTs. 

In this game I saw Thorne do mostly fine with the short stuff (as you'd expect), but the signs of potential turnover-worthy plays were there. Here he doesn't see the LB lurking underneath on a throw intended for Foster: 

The accuracy contributes to his turnover woes. Against Wisconsin he, too often, made life harder on his receivers by giving them marginal balls or just missing them altogether. This isn't the easiest throw but he doesn't help Coleman and puts it in a place where it can be deflected and intercepted: 

This ball is overthrown but Thorne gets bailed out by a DPI call on Reed: 

What's odd about Thorne is how often he can alternate from wobbly and turnover-prone to a gunslinger dropping dimes. Thorne's deep ball was a highlight of his game last season and while I wouldn't say it's featured in the same way, the guy has a knack for throwing fades and dropping it in the perfect spot: 

Thorne also impressed me throwing the ball backshoulder in this game, doing what a QB with good receivers should do, giving them (and only them) a chance to make a play. Example A: 

This next one is not backshoulder but it's another instance of a pretty ball that only his receiver has a shot at:

Thorne, in the course of a given game, may make several throws that kill his team or several throws that may kill the opponent. He can be dishing daggers, or balls that sail wide or (especially this year) way too high. It's been an inconsistent and disappointing season for a second-year starter who has taken a step backwards, but he is still a solid B1G QB capable of making some very nice throws to win a game. 

 

Overview

Since we just talked about Thorne and Reed, we might as well begin this section by talking about the other passcatchers. Keon Coleman is turning into a fun player to watch and creeping up on becoming Reed's equal. His basketball abilities showed off when he Moss'd a Wisconsin DB on this trick play TD in OT: 

If you go back into the Thorne section, you will notice that several of the clips feature #0 Coleman as the intended receiver. He's getting about as many targets as Reed on the season and there's a reason for that... kid can play. 

Tre Mosley is still a pretty unsexy checkdown guy. He had two catches in the game I saw against Wisconsin, nearly getting a TD on a mesh route at the goal line: 

The TEs don't play a massive role in the passing game but they should be mentioned here. The only one of the three who made a major impact against Wisconsin in the receiving game was Maliq Carr, the least used of the three, funny enough. That's because of one play in particular, a seam route where Carr gets free and gets help from very poor Wisconsin tackling to change the game: 

I'm not sure MSU wins this one without that play given how it flipped the field and how in-command Wisconsin's defense was prior to that. As a whole, I don't have a ton of to say about these TEs as receivers because they don't get many targets. The three primary TEs have combined to get 46 targets this season. For reference, Coleman has 51 targets and Reed has 43, despite his injury. The balls generally go to the WRs. 

Now that we've gone through the components of the MSU passing attack, let's move into the rushing game. After starting strong against WMU and Akron (combined record: 4-12), the rushing game has dried up. Jalen Berger, the lone RB to get consistent enough carries in each game not to have his average skewed by a small sample, has not rushed for >4.0 YPC in a game against a P5 opponent this season. Jarek Broussard, who is getting minuscule carries at this point, has only surpassed the 4.0 threshold once, and it was in a three-rush performance against Maryland. Against Wisconsin, who rank among the better rush defenses in the country (a similar ballpark as Michigan, for reference), the Spartans' three RBs combined to rush for 3.3 YPC. 

I don't think any of these RBs are bad running backs, they're just guys. Which is the problem. Last season the Spartans cobbled together a plus running game despite shoddy blocking because KW3 was a goddamn wizard with a supernatural ability to make explosive rushes out of nothing. You may recall that Walker was a huge contributor to the Never Bunt, Hit Dingers offense last year. Most of the time he'd be contained for small carries because the blockers in front of him are not very good. But then every so often he'd do something ridiculous and rip off a 40 yarder. This year is exactly that phenomenon again, except none of these guys are good enough to rip off a 40 yarder without proper blocking. Which there has been none of against P5 competition. 

If there was enough of a running lane, Berger showcased a solid ability to capitalize. Him trucking the safety here was fun: 

I liked the aggressiveness of Elijah Collins as a runner, running with purpose when given a window and falling forward for extra yardage: 

The problem was that these running lanes were not open often enough and when they weren't, I never saw an instance where any of these players displayed the vision and shiftiness that Walker possessed. I said about last year's Michigan-MSU game that if Ty Isaac were MSU's RB that the Wolverines likely win by two TDs. Well, these RBs show a lot of Ty Isaac in them.  

To be clear, that's not a major indictment of them as players, merely saying that they aren't special. The central culprits for the rushing game are still the offensive linemen. This play is a good encapsulation of the main scapegoats:

Center Nick Samac whiffs on his guy, RG Matt Carrick, as an uncovered lineman, has the responsibility of going to the second level to hunt linebackers. He whiffs on his LB. Oh and blocking TE Tyler Hunt doesn't do much with the unblocked edge that split zone asks him to come across and hammer. 

Attempts to run stretch did not go much better: 

I do want to credit Wisconsin, whose LBs had their nose in the right places to bog the MSU rushing attack down even if blocks were good on the first level. That said, they often weren't, with very little push from the OL. It wasn't total disaster, as MSU limited the outright whiffs resulting in TFLs, but there were a lot of 0-2 yard gains where it's a stalemate at the line and the LBs are ready to plug any existing gaps. On that note, a repeated flaw I saw in MSU's rushing attack was a failure of the linemen to get upfield and hunt LBs on their zone concepts. They don't do well enough on their doubles to allow the uncovered linemen to release and get upfield to take out the LBs. That was a contributing factor to the rushing malaise, showcased here: 

As for pass protection, it was a bumpy ride again. I would not describe the Wisconsin game as an all-out assault on Thorne, but the OL had some real problems keeping him upright, particularly interior rushes/blitz pickups against Carrick and Samac, as well as edge rushes around LT Jarrett Horst. This one showcases all those problems: 

Berger is the RB in blitz pickup against the rusher around the right edge and he does not do well, which is another vulnerability I noticed- none of the RBs really impressed me in that phase of the game. Horst meanwhile is in major trouble and has to tackle his assignment, getting flagged for a hold, while the interior rush against Carrick is getting home. 

Horst very nearly got a cyan because of this next play, where he displayed struggles handling rushers lined up well outside him: 

This next one again shows the IOL and Horst crumble yet again, while also putting Thorne's escapability on display: 

Samac is the weakest component of the line, getting hammered backwards or whiffing far too often, but Carrick and Horst had their struggles too. Toss in the weak spot at TE with Tyler Hunt doing a subpar job as a blocker and the others not much better and you see why this team can't run the ball against P5 competition and places stress on their QB. I don't expect Michigan to brutalize Thorne snap after snap, but I also expect him to be on the run quite a bit and there not to be a ton of rushing success for MSU. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan?

Last year I talked all about how Michigan needed to avoid the big play, which turned out to be true, as the Wolverines gave up one big play too many in the crushing defeat to MSU. This year that is still the case, but it is less of a threat because of Walker's absence. Removing a dynamic force like KW3 means MSU is a less dangerous offense and will likely have a worse performance against the Wolverines. That said, when they have success, I do expect it to look like last year, coming on big plays here and there. When you look at this game against Wisconsin, MSU scored three TDs in regulation. One was set up by a short field (they got it on the WISC 12), one was set up by a big play (the 72 yarder to Carr), and the last one was a 27 yard TD pass. In OT they scored on passing plays of 25 and 27 yards. They are still a Never Bunt, Hit Dingers offense, but there are fewer ways for the dingers to occur and there are less of them. 

What I do not expect is for MSU to go on a 14 play, 87 yard Army drive that grinds you down. They have not had enough success between the tackles on the ground and their WRs do not block well enough for their screen game to be that effective. Moreover, problems in pass pro bring up the threat of a drive-ending sack often. The way I see this game going on this side of the football is for MSU to have a few big plays, probably fades or jump balls to Coleman or Reed, with a trick play or two tossed in. Their scripted drive will likely have something fun in it too. But they should not be able to move the football consistently given what we know about the MSU offense and the Michigan defense. The Wolverine interior DL should be able to win its matchups against the Spartan IOL and the blitzes should get home from time to time. That will assert the tone for the game. 

The matchups to watch are DJ Turner and Gemon Green against Coleman and Reed. We have to accept that the Spartans will win a few of those because that's how football works and how their season has gone. But without a more effective running game and other ways to hurt Michigan, I don't know what else is going to work besides trickery. Toss in the probability that Thorne makes a few bad decisions that'll likely lead to at least one turnover and you see where I'm coming from. SP+ projects MSU to score 17 and Parker (@statsowar on twitter) projects 12.88. That makes sense in my mind. A few things will likely go right for the green and white, but most won't.