Resources: My charting, MSU game notes, MSU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

The film: I charted them against Ohio State and watched the Illinois game twice. OSU because I used some of the bye week to start scouting OSU. Illinois because it was pretty funny.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

MSU assures the public that senior quarterback Brian Lewerke will start his fourth Michigan game after going through concussion protocol (or not). His backup got in against Wisconsin and Penn State when Lewerke was struggling—Rocky Lombardi went 6/20 for 71 yards and 2 INTs. Statuesque freshman Theo Day got a drive vs PSU on which he threw for 12 yards on 4 passes, ran once for no gain, and fumbled a snap.

Most of the running back room bolted once redshirt freshman Elijah Collins (+7/-4 in my charting vs OSU, 5 YPC) took over. He's one of those MSU backs, with good balance and power after contact. He is still a freshman, picking up a false start in both games and many pass pro minuses against one good cut block. With backups Connor Heyward, La'Darius Jefferson and scatback Weston Bridges among the departing, freshman Anthony Williams has had to serve; he's getting under 3 YPC and is just a guy.

Tight end is down to two of the foursome they started with, losing the guy who was #4 to a transfer, and the guy who was #1 to a season-ending injury last week. That leaves an odd couple: Buffalo grad transfer Matt Seybert (+4/-7) is a fair run blocker and the best receiving target (8.5 yards per target, 73% catch rate) but still lost in pass pro. Athletic redshirt freshman Trent Gillison at this stage of his career is a big receiver who commits a lot of OPI.

[After THE JUMP: Weird guys]

With dynamic receiver Darrell Stewart still expected to be out they're trying to lean more on WR Cody White (527 yards, 8.2 YPT, 58% catch rate), who's as big as last year's favorite fade target Felton Davis but Absolutely Not Felton Davis.

After the first two times he jumped on a cornerback who had position, missed the ball, then complained to the nearest ref I started a Cody White Counter, which got to five—six if you count the one he caught (he still complained). State has realized he's more Breaston than Braylon and started giving him the ball in space, which works but for the fumbles. The other guy they're using is Julian Barnett (76 yards on 10 targets, 50% catch rate) the 4-star we badly wanted to be the next Detroit cornerback, who's as athletic as any of those guys but still very much a freshman. Classmate Tre Mosley (4.9 YPT, 63% CR) is the guy who had an endzone interception (that would have been called back for OPI) bounce off his chest. "F" receiver (slot or flanker) C.J. Hayes (5.1 YPT, 52% CR) missed Illinois. Laress Nelson (4.8 YPT, 40% CR) and Jalen Nailor (5 yards on 4 targets) are speedy jet objects—Nailor might return this week.

That leaves me with the offensive line, which might be more of a train wreck than last year:

Or the year before that:

Or the year they went 3-9*:

The injuries again screw everything up. Forever-trying-to-eat-his-way-to-300-pounds Cole Chewins has been out all year with a back thing, and Kevin Jarvis, the guard version of Chewins, has been out most of it, replaced by a very large, not very mobile box-shaped RG Matt Carrick (+5/-10.5 versus the run, –8 in pass pro, which is [checks notes] a lot for a guard). Then they lost C Matt Allen (+4/-13.5 vs the run, –3 pass pro vs OSU), whom I mention anyways because a) I watched him keep trying to injure some Ohio State DL between the whistles before the above happened to him, b) because as an impertinent, cheap, grabby, dirty, unskilled, injured legacy he's a perfect avatar for this team, and c) because whoever's playing now was behind him.

That would be true freshman C Nick Samac, who wasn't that much of a problem vs Illinois until you realized he was probably responsible for the constant issues with protections, not to mention the bad snap that gave the Illini their first shot at tying it up inside the MSU 10. Samac's not even the only 2019 Dantonio plans to start, as LG J.D. Duplain started against Illinois while the very pushable Luke Campbell (+6.5/-5.5, –5 pass pro vs OSU) was dealing with some sort of illness that apparently went deep into this week. Interestingly neither of the true freshmen are five-star Devontae Dobbs.

I saved the tackles for last because they're so bad even MSU can't cover it up. My charting of old friend RT Jordan Reid ended in an all-timer: +3/-3 run, –17 pass pro, and the funny part is not even half of that was Chase Young-induced. Young was responsible for the 8 pass minuses II gave to LT (former G) Tyler Higby, who is probably still out this week, which means they remain stuck with opening day starter LT AJ Arcuri, which means Chewins minus 4 inches, 20 pounds, and a year of PB&Js. If you play back the post-"totally not a concussion you guys" interception from your memory, Arcuri is the tackle who was put on his ass by an Illini DE first.

Okay I can probably stop recording after the throw. It's not really necessary to show the entire runback. Fine, we'll right after he scores. I mean after he waves.

* …and Notre Dame was 4-8.

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Hybrid. Lewerke is a runner so they shotgun more with him. "Exotic" was an Ace 11 and a Wildcat. Charting is from Ohio State:

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Shotgun	Pistol	Ace	Exotic		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (37)	81%	13%	6%	-		2.59		30%	22%	11%	38%
Passing (32)	81%	13%	-	6%		2.81		71%	6%	6%	16%
Total (68)	56	9	2	2		2.70		33	10	6	19

They'll pull out all the modern tricks: RPOs, flexed tight ends, five-wide from 11 personnel. The routes are quite simple—especially once they're down to the freshman receivers. They run mostly pick routes, not so much mesh as that play where a slot or tight end goes upfield and bangs into a linebacker or trailing cornerback to free a route that breaks inside and under that.

As with all of MSU's cheap strategies, it gets flagged sometimes but they're counting on the refs to let a fair bit go so as not to make themselves the center of attention. State remains one of the Big Ten's most penalized teams, and worst officiated teams—I had "refs" at +13/-0 on this side of the ball.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? It's funny: they were running arc reads and pin & pull so much in practice because beating Michigan is the only thing, that they realized it's a good fit for Lewerke. Arc read featured against Illinois. The mix against Ohio State wasn't that different from Michigan's offense, except with the Lewerke sprint option and more jets and end-arounds. Also like Michigan they're experimenting with ways to run their power stuff to different gaps:

Yes it only breaks big because of an epic hold by that guard in the middle of the play (refs came out + a lot for MSU in this game) but it's a cool design that starts out like Counter Trey but is really Power, with the "2nd puller" turning around to kick the backside end.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind it out.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Lewerke running still looks like a guy you'd give a 4 or a 5 and then he gets the edge because he's the very definition of an 8. This is their weapon. They use it as they can. Opponents are all aware of it by now, especially the fake sprint option rollouts. But at least once a game Lewerke will do his Jake Rudock in fast forward impersonation, an NFL-bound safety will pick an angle like it's Jake Rudock, and Lewerke will run past the 1st down marker then fall into the bench looking for a late hit flag.

I guess if it works for Izzo.

HenneChart: I thought I'd go back and get the charting from previous years. Ace did 2016 and two games in 2017, and I did a pair of his 2018 games—note that I converted "CA+" throws to "DO" since.

Brian Lewerke	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Opponent	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
2016 BYU	2	7+(2)	2		3	2		-	2	7x(1)	2		46%	x
2017 Notre Dame	3	9++ (3)	1		3	1		1	2x	4(1)	2x		59%	x
2017 Iowa	1	15+(1)	2		-	2		1	3	7	2		58%	x
2018 Indiana	7	6(1)	-		4	1		-	1	9xx	2		52%	x
2018 PSU	5	15(2)	1		5	5		2	6	5x	10x		48%	x
2019 OSU	3	14(1)	-		8(1)	5		-	2	4x	4		63%	x

Horrific PSU game aside, Lewerke is still mostly the same quarterback he was as a redshirt sophomore. He doesn't have great pocket presence because he knows (see OL history above) that his line is going to get him killed, but he is pretty good at escaping sacks if only one guy screws up, and he's gotten progressively better at getting the ball out quickly. His reads are not complicated: either they're cutting the field in half for floods and triangle reads, or there's one guy to throw to on a sideline fade, RPO slant, or what's basically a screen where the tight end blocks the coverage and Lewerke just has to throw it to the open guy:

He also will flat-out miss sometimes because the constant pressure has him imagining linebackers in his ribs:

Zook/Frames Janklin/Him Jarbaugh Factor: They left in Brian Lewerke after it was pretty clear that his—in his words—"head was ringing for a little bit, but it was nothing serious, I don't think" for a play and he threw a pick-six that got Illinois within an extra point try from tying the game late in the 4th quarter.

But they use 4th down correctly, especially considering their OL is pocked with sub-300 freshmen and whatnot, and they always have a few good tricks up their sleeves.

Dangerman: If I have to pick a guy RB Elijah Collins is the only (available) player to grade out positive against Ohio State, and he's apparently so good that every challenger who runs out of eligibility before he does decided they'd rather seek carries at another school. Not many people have done this to Tuf Borland:

There was also the time he did more blocking than anyone on his offensive line:

No wonder the rest of his room bailed.

OVERVIEW:

They're not good, but they do have quite a few gimmicks, like the world's weirdest Breaston in beast-sized WR Cody White, and an end-around DRAW they used to highlight his unique skills:

I have questions. Like have they run a pass off this look yet? Also why is their athletic 6'3/220 guy not doing more than end arounds and sideline fades?

One of the problems with Michigan's offense this year was changing offensive coordinators, warranted as it may have been, created a situation where the offense was strategically back in Year 1 in Year 5. Fortunately however the rest of the offensive staff was more or less left in situ, allowing them to settle into something like continuity with new ideas. MSU is the opposite extreme: they got rid of nobody, but changed everyone's job. Even now it's incredible, both in content and level of spin the beat writer gave it:

"This is probably the most significant change we have had in my 12 years here," Dantonio said. "But it is warranted."

….

"I'm a foxhole guy," Dantonio said. "I don't apologize for that in any respect. I believe in surrounding myself with loyal people. I believe in digging in when things get tough."

This is how they described promoting the QB coach, who had previously been the RB coach, to offensive coordinator, while bumping the old co-offensive coordinators to QBs and OL, respectively, which shifted the—chart? Chart.

The newest of them, Brad Salem, has been with Dantonio for almost a decade. But they're loyal, not like Bill Blackwell who refused to be the fall guy for the cover up of an old sexual assault case, and now has MSU's attorneys scrambling to find an excuse why Dantonio shouldn't sit for a deposition. These assistants are the kind who are going to dig in when things get tough, not bail like six of their players—five on offense—have done already this season. They're foxhole guys: When a player takes a head injury and gets up woozy, they're not going to pull him, or even apologize for not pulling him, or even admit he hit his head, even if the school has to change the story days later.

To outsiders this comes across like a wholesale disintegration. They see the 84th offense to S&P+ that was florping around with backup quarterbacks mid-season, that is starting a true freshman center on a line they've shuffled as much as their coaching staff, that just saw most of their running backs jump ship, and for the second straight season can't keep their go-to receiver healthy. These outsiders do not understand true fidelity, what it means to rise up with your head swimming, your tackles flailing, your center tackling, your tight end running an OL coach's idea of a route, and stand in to throw a game-tying touchdown to Illinois, not for a great cause, nor a great leader, nor a great institution, but for the glory of Mark Dantonio and Michigan State.