10/9/2021 – Michigan 32, Nebraska 29 – 6-0, 3-0 Big Ten

At the end of seminal 1998 poker movie Rounders, Mike McDermott walks back into the underground club where he lost his whole bankroll years before. He says he "feels like Buckner walking back into Shea." I watched Rounders again a couple months ago because having something on to pay attention to is helpful when your personal life is spiraling towards divorce.

I came to regret this, because the phrase would not leave my mind.

In my current situation, Shea is damn near everywhere. The park I walk through to get my kid from school was  the site of a couple other walks, late night ones. The little court I cut through to get there is one letter off the name of the town we stayed on an anniversary trip that felt like it would be the end of the bad times and the beginning of the good ones, until it wasn't. I've lived in the same town—the same part of the same town—for 15 years. Everything and everywhere reminds me of the state of things.

Buckner walking back into Shea, if Shea was the Big Bang. Or, no: more like that episode of The Next Generation when Beverley Crusher gets stuck in a universe that keeps getting smaller.

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Consider two football teams, now. Both are ancient and dignified and scattered apart on the sands of what used to be a championship-level program. Both are run by former quarterbacks from the glory days. Neither has broken through in the way their large, absurdly devoted fanbases want. One constantly shoots itself in the foot just on the verge of poking through. The other does the same thing but somehow one feels more like a Three Stooges movie and the other a Lars Von Trier joint. Which is which depends on which team you're a fan of.

History has decided that these two teams are going to play each other, and that it's going to be close. Inevitably whatever happens now will go in the collective psychosis of the loser. The winner? Dopamine hit, sure. But if Bill Buckner walked back into Shea and fielded a routine grounder it wouldn't change a whole lot. Damage is quick, recovery is long.

If you ignore the jersey color of the winner, then, the result here was foreordained. More mania for Nebraska fans looking at a punt that went the wrong way and a late fumble and oh God whatever it takes to lose to Illinois. More caution for Michigan fans who do not trust that anything can be good. One fanbase spirals down, the other barely increments up. The moral arc of college football is always towards derangement.

After the game Cade McNamara stood in front of a reporter and told her that "previous Michigan teams lose this game." He prefaced that with a "no disrespect" gesture. That hit in the same way any "I'm not an X, but" statement does. There must be a German word for it, the phrase that disclaims the thing you're about to do and only intensifies how hard you're doing it. That was disrespect—disrespect that was on some level deserved. Previous Michigan teams have lost this game and others like it.

This Michigan team is probably going to as well, because that's what happens in college football unless you're one of the elites living in the recruiting arcologies Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State have built. And in this weird post-covid year, even two of those three. The Revenge Tour team that did seem like a playoff team lost a cosmically dumb and stupid and dumb game against Iowa, and then ate The Spot a couple weeks later. There's no shame in being caught up in the tides of college football.

I don't trust it and probably won't trust it until long after it is reasonable to do so. But okay. You went into Shea—in this case a road game against an approximately top 25 team per the fancystats—and fielded a grounder. A tricky one, even. A cool tile has gone down over some lava. Trust comes back one tile at a time, and maybe this time the Michigan team won't lose those games. And when they do maybe it won't feel like another in a long line of errors.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

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you're the man now, dog

#1 Brad Hawkins. The crucial strip and recovery to set up the winning points, plus an equally critical fourth down stop on Nebraska's first drive. I can't say for certain that he wasn't part of some of Nebraska's big plays but I'm pretty sure none of them were on him; he in fact had to clean up one when he came over to tackle a wheel route that (probably) Green busted on. Almost knocked that ball out for another turnover on downs.

#2 Hassan Haskins. The hurdle, of course, and several other grunting runs where he makes four or five yards after contact with his combination of power and balance. 5.9 YPC against a real defense despite frequent short yardage deployment.

#3 Jake Moody. More than just a guy who makes field goals. He's a guy who makes field goals in the same exact way, casually drawing them in from the left hash mark. Kick goes up, kick looks slightly wide, have now been trained to interpret that as a sign something good is going to happen.

Honorable mention: Uh Aidan Hutchinson was PFF's defensive player of the week again so I guess he should get an HM. Dax Hill turned in one spectacular INT and several other plays. Blake Corum had 18 touches that averaged 7 yards each. Josh Ross delivered several thumping tackles. The OL checks in here with special mention to Stueber, who was paving.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

23: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb)
17: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb)
12: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb)
7: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc),
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Hawkins's late strip and recovery sets Michigan up for a chip shot to win.

Honorable mention: Sainristil lays out for a long ball. Haskins hurdles a dude. Corum zips through an insert iso for a touchdown-creating chunk.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

McNamara throws a terrible interception immediately after a Nebraska TD, setting up their go-ahead score.

Honorable mention: Illegal formation TD, various missed deep shots, Nebraska quackery getting Michigan's linebackers running after ghosts.

[After THE JUMP: hello ground game]

OFFENSE

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Live by the deep ball, die by the deep ball. McNamara's deep shots in this game were not on point. Even the one he hit to Sainristil took him off his feet, which ended up taking four points off the board when Michigan couldn't punch it in from the five. Other opportunities were largely uncatchable. At times I was reminded of Wilton Speight against Iowa in Kinnick, when hitting any one of five or six shots would have been enough.

But he did hit the one, even if it required a circus catch, and Michigan moved the ball pretty well. I feel conflicted about McNamara's overall performance to date, performance in this game, performance against Wisconsin, etc. I am wishy-washy about all of it.

Leak. Michigan did this three times:

That's gonna be some RPS, dinking to your TE for critical third down conversions.

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The run game returns. Wisconsin may be that good on the ground and Michigan may be quite good when they're not disrespecting Rutgers. Michigan ran a lot of successful gap stuff, some insert iso, some split zone (which felt pretty meh) and got two big plays in which they blocked a for a bunch of yards and then their backs went and got some more. (The third big play, Corum's TD, was bash on which the OL was not relevant.)

This is a defense that shut down MSU by shooting Spartan OL back on a down-to-down basis. This performance is a major boost to the idea that Michigan's ground game is potent even against good teams. Now if you can work in some more RPO/keeper stuff based on that. However…

Short yardage is a problem. Particularly when the field gets compressed. Bill Connelly on Michigan's fatal flaw:

Michigan's goal-to-go touchdown rate is just 77%, and their red zone TD rate is 62%. Both rank 68th in the country.

This is quite a comedown from the days when the crowd was outraged when Michigan did anything but give the ball to Ben Mason on a FB dive, and that's despite having a mooseback like Haskins available.

Michigan did have an unfortunate occurrence in this game when McNamara got stepped on and his knee hit the ground an instant before he handed the ball to Haskins for a walk-in TD, but the overall picture is a little concerning. Michigan does not have a manball short yardage package and they don't have a mobile quarterback to make up for it. Even McCarthy, the nominally mobile guy, is just an average-sized dude who happens to be fast and not a short-yardage bulldozer type.

I don't know if there are good solutions available; this feels like a thing that's going to remain a problem.

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Baldwin can go. Baldwin took a nothing hitch and broke out 10-15 YAC, which he's done in a couple other games. Michigan didn't seem to have any WR issues even down Bell and Wilson, and I wonder if he's still acclimating to major college football and has some rapid improvement left in the tank. He certainly seems like he's got the physical package.

I'll allow it. This looks more like attempting to unscrew the top of a thermos than eating corn but if  you're fast enough to outrun a pretty good DE despite a cutback to him you get to celebrate however you want.

Corum also added to his "Mike Hart but fast" reel by spinning through two tacklers and toughing out a first down after receiving a dink pass.

McCarthy's got to be able to throw Denard stuff. McCarthy's one throw in this game was a dink to the flat that was dropped. Seems like you'd rather take shots with him since he's dropped in two beautiful bombs to Baldwin already and he's currently the stunt casting running QB who should be sucking up safeties.

Self scout the late QB runs. Michigan turned to QB runs on critical downs late a few years ago. At this point that tendency has been scouted into the ground. Witness Rutgers's QBR blitz that ate up McNamara and McCarthy getting swarmed just before the winning field goal in this game.

DEFENSE

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Alas, no-bust season, we knew thee well. Nebraska was always going to be the most serious test of Michigan's spooky ability to not let guys run willy-nilly, uncovered, despite transitioning to a new defense. Nebraska has a running quarterback and does a bunch of cool stuff. They love them a throwback because frontside action against a guy like Martinez has to be respected, and one of the best ways to detonate a young linebacker is a throwback. Check:

That's so confused that I'm not sure who's supposed to have the running back, Ross or Hill-Green. Looks like both and neither.

Later Nebraska went with an end around fake that stopped and turned into a swing pass.

The guy in man to man coverage on that receiver? #4, who's standing on the ten yard line, barely in the frame. That's going to be a big minus for Gray but also a big RPS win. Nebraska does cool stuff.

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But also Michigan got some of theirs. The fourth and two stop on the initial Nebraska drive looks like a scouting win to me. When Nebraska motions in their WR, Mike Morris puts eyes on him, expecting a crack block that comes. He dismisses it. Then the guy replacing is not a cornerback but Hawkins, because Michigan literally has no corners on the field:

So Morris strings it out, Hawkins sheds the lead block, and Michigan gets off the field.

Okay: I believe in the DTs about 64%. For one, I should apologize to Mazi Smith since I claimed that the DTs didn't do anything in pass rush. Smith was about an instant away from causing another turnover:

They didn't do a lot. They did something.

More notable to me: Michigan stuffed Nebraska on two key third downs with Jenkins/Speight/Jeter on the field. One was the third down right before the play embedded in the above bullet; the second was a  third and one where Jenkins shed the LT and stood up the RB with help from a linebacker. Personally I would not have had those guys on the field on key third downs, but I mean… okay.

The one contain blip. Michigan has two DEs who are edge rushing around the corner, and this can be a problem against a guy like Martinez. This third and eleven was about to be a punt when Hutchinson went around the edge, but there was a huge gap because Ojabo did the same thing, less effectively, and zip zap zoop:

Mike Morris also has some responsibility there as he tries to drive inside and cannot react. If Michigan can delay Martinez at all before he exits the pocket the linebackers can rally and hold this down. When you have Hutchinson going up against a true freshman you should be assuming that the QB is going to flush up in the pocket. Michigan did a good job of this the rest of the night but this was killer because Nebraska's illegal formation touchdown was right after.

This is our concern. Michigan took a couple of egregious PI/holding calls in this game that were bad echoes of last year:

Turner had another one on Oliver Martin, who is Nebraska's #4 receiver and a guy who had to transfer twice to get on the field, that was just as bad.

Nebraska is the first functional passing game to roll into town, and they've got a couple of athletic guys. I am concerned that guys like Jahan Dotson, anyone on Ohio State, and that one guy who did the thing for MSU last year and then evaporated are going to be a problem because Michigan's CB play isn't meaningfully improved against non-meatballs.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Henning shorts out. Rough, rough day for him as he 1) lost three yards on a return, 2) let a punt bounce at the ten and was fortunate that Nebraska let it slip into the endzone, and 3) muffed a second punt. Caden Kolesar briefly getting the job now makes more sense even if he was letting a bunch of them drop.

Robbins right turn. Brad Robbins had another punt hit close to the endzone and then take a 90 degree turn. I fear this man.

MISCELLANEOUS

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When taunting is encouraged. The above got flagged as a dead ball foul after a turnover on downs, which meant exactly nothing. In these situations the flags that come out are more like little festive party favors.

Oblig referee complaining. This is not a legal formation:

There's been a lot of discussion about whether the bust was induced by the fact that you can't do that and coverage rules aren't written to deal with four eligibles to one side of the formation. It seems like the answer could well be yes since you get these trips formations with a covered TE a ton and defenses must be used to ignoring that guy as an eligible WR. But also that guy is way off the LOS, so I don't know.

One thing I do not buy is the Q-Anon level conspiracy theorizing that Nebraska lined up in an obviously illegal formation and hoped they'd get away with it so they could score a touchdown. We joke about ref incompetency but how many times do you actually see something like this missed? Five percent tops?

Also in what are we doing here. Hassan Haskins got called down three yards short of where he actually landed on one third and short—overturned on review—, Nebraska was offsides on their interception, and uh yeah that PI Michigan got at the end of the first half was absurd.

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In gamesmanship conspiracy theories I believe. Nebraska substituted late on their final TD drive and got Michigan to sub as well. The officials are supposed to hold for the defense to get ready, but because Nebraska was subbing late that would have resulted in a delay of game call. So they got out of the way and Michigan busted on a third and four Martinez keeper.

Going for two. Michigan went up 19-7 with about 3 minutes left in the third quarter and did not get it. This is one of those controversial things I don't have much of an opinion about. The upside there is that if Nebraska scores two touchdowns you're tied instead of behind. The downside is that if Nebraska scores two touchdowns and gets their own two point conversion, you're down a full 3 points and a field goal only ties it. That latter is what transpired. To me this is close to a wash.

Throwing a fade on the attempt, though… woof.

Computers love us. That Connelly article referenced above has a percent chance all the teams in it make the playoff, as calculated by Connelly's finest computers. Michigan's number is 40%, which struck me as ludicrously optimistic. After considering things it does seem optimistic but there's a window here even if Michigan loses to OSU because:

• Big Ten teams beat Iowa State, Washington, Miami, and Auburn in nonconference play and seized spots atop the polls despite those teams being not as good as expected.
• Bama's loss makes a two-bid SEC depend on someone beating Georgia in the title game.
• The playoff committee might tell Cincinnati to pound sand.

So a scenario like B10 champ, Georgia, Oklahoma, 11-1 Michigan w/ loss to OSU and wins over MSU/PSU is feasible. 40% still seems extremely high.

I've decided I don't want to know. No combination of words would make this better.

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Some would make it much worse. Also here is this guy:

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HERE

The Kicker Loves Smelling Salts:

Have you ever tried smelling salts?  The only way I can describe them is what it must feel like to inhale vaporized moonshine.  They smack you with a strange combo of simultaneous confusion and clarity.  If you have the type of screw loose that is required to play fullback or professional hockey, smelling salts can bring you a clarity of purpose and act as your personal rocket fuel.  On this team, the offensive line loves them dating back to 9-on-7 drills that formed their identify in the off-season.  But because this is an all caps TEAM, the kicker from Northville loves smelling salts too. 

Best and Worst:

Similarly, for all the complaints by Nebraska fans that they were hosed by calls in this game, Michigan was the victim of their fair share of questionable calls.  As noted elsewhere, Nebraska got away with a TON of “college crappe”, from illegal formations to rampant holding to the obnoxious clapping on defense that induced 3 false starts.  The fumble by Martinez looked not unlike Erick All fighting for yards on his 3rd-down conversion the drive before, and the refs allowed him to fight for yardage with the understanding that you have to, you know, hold onto the ball.  That joint recovery was the classic “tie goes to the runner”, and I’d argue Martinez’s first non-fumble-incomplete pass falls into a similar vein.  And honestly, the refs were a mess all day – the constant reviews, the weird flags, them completely missing Haskins getting a first down and Harbaugh having to call a TO to force them to review, and even the sliding foot on a UM run that netted them a first down despite it being clear McCarthy was out of bounds a yard earlier.  So a poorly-called game that was disjointed is naturally going to feel “off” for both teams, and so assuming conspiracy where incompetence applies is usually the wrong play.

Seth's cyan remains a SOURCE OF CONTROVERSY:

Folks…

As I'm sure you all know by now, a terrible sin has been committed.  An atrocious wrong, the likes of which have not been seen since. . . uh, breakfast?  Anyway, I apologize for the disturbing content, but this demands answers:

Gasp!  It's unforgivable.  Inconceivable!  (That word may not mean what I think it means.)  I'm sure Cade's looking at that right now, gripping a loaded revolver, holding a bottle of pills, pressing a cloth-wrapped tantō against his abdomen with both hands (cross-legged and dressed in road whites, of course).