Big Ten Reset Rigs The System
Scores from last week (home team listed second):
- Illinois 72, MSU 81
- PSU 86, Nebraska 83
- Indiana 63, Rutgers 74
- Iowa 57, Michigan 79
- OSU 67, MSU 71
- Nebraska 70, Illinois 86
- Northwestern 67, Minnesota 59
- Purdue 73, PSU 52
- Michigan 73, Indiana 57
- Illinois 74, Wisconsin 69
- Minnesota 74, Nebraska 78
- MSU 55, Maryland 73
- Iowa 73, OSU 57
This was a great week for Michigan, a bad one for Ohio State, and a brutal one for Indiana's and Minnesota's tourney chances.
The Standings
Record | NET | KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | OVR | B1G | RK | Q1 | Q2 | Nat Rk (chg) | Proj. B1G Rec.* |
KP | BT | KP | BT | ||||
U-M | 18-1 | 13-1 | 2nd | 8-1 | 4-0 | 2.0 (up 1) | 16-1 | 5th | 6th | 4th | 8th | ||||
ILL | 18-6 | 14-4 | 6th | 8-5 | 4-1 | 6.5 (--) | 15-5 | 10th | 11th | 17th | 21st | ||||
IOWA | 18-7 | 12-6 | 5th | 5-6 | 6-1 | 5.0 (down 0.5) | 14-6 | 2nd | 2nd | 59th | 74th | ||||
PUR | 16-8 | 11-6 | 21st | 5-7 | 5-0 | 17.0 (up 4.5) | 12-7 | 27th | 34th | 26th | 31st | ||||
OSU | 18-7 | 12-7 | 8th | 7-5 | 4-2 | 7.5 (down 0.5) | 13-7 | 3rd | 3rd | 81st | 82nd | ||||
WIS | 16-9 | 10-8 | 24th | 3-8 | 6-1 | 11.5 (up 0.5) | 11-9 | 36th | 49th | 7th | 5th | ||||
MD | 15-10 | 9-9 | 29th | 5-9 | 1-1 | 28.5 (up 5.5) | 10-10 | 29th | 35th | 27th | 36th | ||||
RUT | 13-9 | 9-9 | 32nd | 4-8 | 4-1 | 28.5 (up 0.5) | 10-10 | 59th | 70th | 14th | 15th | ||||
IND | 12-12 | 7-10 | 57th | 3-9 | 5-1 | 40.0 (down 3) | 8-11 | 46th | 48th | 42nd | 52nd | ||||
MSU | 13-10 | 7-10 | 77th | 4-9 | 2-1 | 63.5 (up 5.5) | 8-12 | 82nd | 87th | 50th | 50th | ||||
MIN | 13-12 | 6-12 | 69th | 4-10 | 1-0 | 57.0 (down 7.5) | 7-13 | 45th | 47th | 74th | 76th | ||||
PSU | 8-13 | 5-12 | 52nd | 3-10 | 2-2 | 45.5 (down 7.5) | 6-13 | 38th | 44th | 58th | 67th | ||||
NW | 7-14 | 4-13 | 87th | 3-11 | 0-2 | 75.5 (up 2.5) | 5-14 | 119th | 117th | 41st | 54th | ||||
NEB | 6-17 | 2-14 | 138th | 1-11 | 1-4 | 102.5 (up 10) | 3-16 | 209th | 204th | 40th | 34th |
*Torvik's projections no longer include postponed games.
Michigan's magic number for winning the title is down to one. Any M win or Illinois loss will wrap it up; the two just so happen to face off tomorrow evening. Both KenPom and Torvik not only project the Wolverines to win that game but also both MSU matchups to finish with the most victories in the conference despite playing only 17 of their 20 scheduled games.
Illinois Update: Signs Point to No Ayo, Brad Underwood Says Something Stupid
preparing to claim a title at 14-6, somehow [Campredon]
Even if Ayo Dosunmu returned from his broken nose tomorrow night after missing the last two games, the chances Illinois wins out and Michigan loses out are 0.2%, according to Torvik's title odds. Given that bleak outlook, it's sensible for the Illini to let Dosunmu completely heal before a postseason run, and it's looking like that's the plan. First, there's the early line for the game:
Early line has Michigan favored by 8.5 points against Illinois. I can't imagine that bodes well for Ayo Dosunmu's chances to play tomorrow.
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) March 1, 2021
Then there's this quote from Illinois coach Brad Underwood:
Illinois' Ayo Dosumnu (facial injuries) remains "day-to-day", per Brad Underwood.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021
Underwood on Dosunmu's status for the postseason:
"We're certainly hopeful of that. He's had every possible facial evaluation. We're not going to put him out there unless he's fully healthy."
This is the right approach. Particularly in a year with a condensed schedule, any good coach is going to prioritize long-term health over short-term gains and be understanding when other teams face similar dilemm-- wait, what's that?
Brad Underwood sending some subs: "We’re going to honor the (postponed games) b/c we’re a member of this league. We’re not gonna be the teams that pick & choose what we play for whatever. We’re going to show up. I think it’s about character, & this team has a ton of it." #Illini
— Gavin Good (@itsallG_O_O_D) February 27, 2021
Beat them by 40, please.
There's no legitimate reason to be upset Michigan didn't force themselves to cram in 20 Big Ten games when they were effectively under state-sanctioned quarantine for two weeks. The Wolverines rescheduled the toughest game that was postponed, which was—yup—the Illinois game. They gave MSU back-to-back cracks at an upset. The games they didn't reschedule—hosting Indiana, trips to Northwestern and PSU—would've helped their chances of winning a regular season title. The reason not to put them back in was player safety.
Meanwhile, the gripe about Michigan's women's team returning earlier than the men needs context. Namely, the WBB squad already had three games postponed before the two-week shutdown. They've now been left off two straight NCAA bracket reveals of the top 16 teams despite having a strong argument for inclusion, and in the first reveal the committee specifically cited M's need to play more games to earn consideration for a top-four seed. They were under significantly more pressure than the men to return early and it certainly hasn't seemed to help the women's squad form that they did so.
It's unfortunate that Dosunmu isn't looking likely to play. I want to see Michigan smash Illinois at full strength. Winning more Big Ten games in three fewer total contests may have to do.
[Hit THE JUMP for the pettiest table I've ever made, updated bracketology, injury news, and more.]
Debating Izzo With Math
just look at all these weird guys [Campredon]
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Izzo's full quote re. the NET rating and margin of victory is below. It's true, Michigan State surrendered some large leads this year and it impacts the numbers.
— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 28, 2021
That said, don't fumble the Purdue game and close out that victory in Iowa City ... and this isn't a conversation. https://t.co/F44NDH2L3C pic.twitter.com/RRdLMoc0RC
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Okay, sorry, I have something more substantial for this than dismissive laughter. First, the Notre Dame game Izzo references: he put in his end-of-bench lineup—which features two current rotation players—with three minutes left up 77-59. They won by ten. They've had the chance to run up the score on one (1) other non-cupcake opponent, when Izzo emptied his bench with... one minute left in a 65-40 game after going on a 14-0 run against Rutgers. This cost them three points in the final margin.
Instead of cherry-picking examples, though, I wanted to dive into the numbers, just in case Izzo had a point in there somewhere. To examine this, I found each team's Human Victory Cigar: a guy they play only in blowouts, almost always a walk-on and often a coach's son. Michigan fans are intimately familiar: past U-M HVCs include Corey Person, Andrew Dakich (save for the bleak point guard injury years), and Fred Wright-Jones. CJ Baird's three-pointer against Texas A&M was an all-time Human Victory Cigar moment.
Is there a team that plays its end-of-bench units an outsized amount? There sure is. The program is even located in the state of Michigan. You're probably picking up on where I'm headed with this—the pettiest table I've ever put together (data via Hoop Lens, includes all games):
Team | Human Victory Cigar | HVC Offensive Possessions |
Team Offensive Possesions |
HVC% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | Jaron Faulds | 29 | 1345 | 2.16 |
Michigan State | Steven Izzo | 15 | 1584 | 0.95 |
Illinois | Tyler Underwood | 17 | 1804 | 0.94 |
Ohio State | Harrison Hookfin | 15 | 1674 | 0.90 |
Nebraska | Bret Porter | 15 | 1769 | 0.85 |
Iowa | Josh Ogundele | 15 | 1784 | 0.84 |
Northwestern | Eric Zalewski | 11 | 1517 | 0.73 |
Minnesota | Hunt Conroy | 9 | 1880 | 0.48 |
Purdue | Jared Wulbrun | 8 | 1673 | 0.48 |
Wisconsin | Carter Higginbottom | 8 | 1652 | 0.48 |
Maryland | Jade Brahmbhatt | 7 | 1593 | 0.44 |
Rutgers | Luke Nathan | 6 | 1587 | 0.38 |
Penn State | Taylor Nussbaum | 4 | 1537 | 0.26 |
Indiana | Cooper Bybee | 4 | 1732 | 0.23 |
Yes, Izzo almost had a point, since his team finishes second in percentage of minutes played by what he'd call Weird Guys, but it's a very distant second. Michigan is way beyond every other Big Ten team in percentage of Human Victory Cigar possessions; they're the only team to crack 1% and they're over 2%.
Any impact the bench mob has made on MSU's tournament resume pales in comparison to, say, that of losing by 18 at Maryland yesterday. Michigan, which passed Baylor for second in the NET rankings, certainly hasn't had any trouble overcoming this, uh, problem. Same with Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State...
Anyway, let's take a moment to appreciate the exquisite collection of names on this list, and also a few that just missed the cut: Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk (Illinois), Nicolas Hobbs (Iowa), Aidan McCool (Maryland), Davis Smith (MSU), Jace Piatkowski (Nebraska), Elijah Wood (also Nebraska), Dom Martinelli (Northwestern), Jansen Davidson Jr. (OSU), and Walt McGrory (Wisconsin). We are truly blessed.
Final Week of the Regular Season Bracketology
Let's run this table back.
BM Seed | BM Avg Seed | BM # of Brackets (out of 100) | Torvik Seed Proj. | Torvik At-Large Bid % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U-M | 1 | 1.00 | 100 | 1 | 100.0 |
OSU | 1 | 1.24 | 100 | 1 | 99.9 |
ILL | 2 | 1.96 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
IA | 3 | 2.72 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
PU | 5 | 5.48 | 100 | 3 | 99.5 |
UW | 6 | 5.80 | 99 | 6 | 98.5 |
RU | 8 | 8.13 | 100 | 8 | 93.1 |
MD | 9 | 9.56 | 99 | 7 | 94.6 |
MSU | 12 | 11.48 | 58 | F4O | 17.1 |
IU | F4O | 10.54 | 35 | F4O | 20.2 |
MN | — | 11.60 | 5 | — | 5.6 |
PSU | — | — | 2 | — | 0.4 |
Eight teams look safely in the field: Michigan, OSU, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and a Maryland squad whose resume is better than you might think. Two floundering bubble teams, Minnesota and PSU, probably need deep Big Ten Tournament runs to get back into consideration.
That leaves Michigan State and Indiana. The Spartans are the last at-large in the Bracket Matrix field at the moment but that includes a number of projections that haven't factored in the blowout loss at Maryland. Torvik's projections have them on track to be the second team out of the tourney field, one spot behind the Hoosiers. The MSU-Indiana game tomorrow night in East Lansing is huge for both squads, especially since that's the best chance each has to get one more regular season win—MSU proceeds to their Michigan home-and-home while IU travels to Purdue.
Both teams have more work to do regardless of tomorrow night's outcome.
Injuries and Departures
Illinois isn't the only team dealing with injury issues. We watched as Jack Nunge exited the Michigan game with an apparent knee injury, and while he thankfully avoided another ACL tear, he's expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn meniscus. Iowa's solution to their sudden lack of a backup center in Sunday's 73-57 win at Ohio State was to play Luka Garza 38 minutes and use Keegan Murray as a very small five for the couple other minutes. We'll see how they adjust when facing a team with more size up front on Sunday against Wisconsin.
Tom Izzo may have one fewer rotation player to toss into the mix as guard Foster Loyer is considering surgery on a shoulder injury that continues to bother him. Rocket Watts has played more point guard minutes in his absence with mixed results while Josh Langford and AJ Hoggard have both seen an uptick in playing time.
Meanwhile, Fred Hoiberg's What If We Built the Whole Plane Out of Transfers strategy isn't going too well:
Nebraska's Teddy Allen is leaving the program, per release. Averaged 16.5 PPG and 4.7 RPG this season.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 1, 2021
Allen has often singlehandedly carried the nation's 209th-ranked offense as the most willing of the three-ish players on the roster capable of creating his own shot to actually do so. It's going to be hideous without him, though that'll only be for four more games this season, in all likelihood.
Updated Tiers
Last week's:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa
Tier III: Wisconsin
Tier IV: Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota
Tier V: Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(
This week's:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State
Tier III: Wisconsin, Purdue
Tier IV: Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana
Tier V: Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(
Purdue jumps up a tier, Minnesota drops a tier, and other than some Tier II reshuffling the rest stays static. Anyone still got a gripe with Michigan being in their own tier?
This Week's Schedule
All times Eastern. Subject to change.
Tonight: Rutgers at Nebraska (7, BTN)
Tuesday: Illinois at Michigan (7, ESPN), Indiana at MSU (8, BTN), Wisconsin at Purdue (9, ESPN2)
Wednesday: Minnesota at PSU (7, BTN), Maryland at Northwestern (9, BTN)
Thursday: MSU at Michigan (7, ESPN), Nebraska at Iowa (9, BTN)
Saturday: Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, FOX), Illinois at OSU (4, ESPN), Indiana at Purdue (TBD)
Sunday: Wisconsin at Iowa (12:30, FOX), Nebraska at Northwestern (1:30 BTN), Michigan at MSU (4:30, CBS), PSU at Maryland (7. BTN)
Ace, Underwood is referring to Michigan not playing the original game as scheduled.
As you know, on the night when the Illini-Michigan game was originally scheduled, Michigan's WBB played that night and thus the men could have too, but the B1G let Michigan pick and choose when the game was going to be played.
While you argue the women needed to play because of "pressure" but the men did not need to play because of "safety", let's just say that reasoning is not iron clad to others in the B1G. Or perhaps another way to put it is that UM got to pick and choose whether to play, and the women chose yes and the men chose no.
i'm fully aware of what underwood was referring to and mentioned it in the post, illinois guy. wrote a whole paragraph, even.
LOL... This isn't a good look for you guys. Rescheduling that game provides NO ADVANTAGE to UM over Illinois. All it does deny the Illini the advantage of playing a team that hadn't stepped in a gym for almost three weeks. It's totally fine if you want to scream into your pillow or mutter obscenities under your breath about missing out on such a golden opportunity. But crying about it in the press just makes you whiney babies.
Hope that $5 was worth creating an account to post a comment that was described and refuted in the post
Hello, Illini troll. How are you?
That whole argument about Michigan not wanting to return to face Illinois in their first game back is just so incredibly hypocritical of Illinois fans. What honestly was so important about playing that game at that time? So Illinois could take advantage of a Michigan team that was likely rusty and not playing at their best? They will ultimately get their shot at Michigan, so what exactly is the issue other than they were looking for a chance to face Michigan after they hadn't played any basketball in 3 of the last 4 weeks? In my opinion its fitting that Dosunmu would be out. They are getting what they deserve.
It all boils down to this: They are angry that they are being denied the competitive advantage of playing a team compromised by a COVID protocol. I mean, I get it - I'd be kicking the dirt if we had OSU dead-to-rights like that and the Big Ten stepped in to level the playing field. And I'm sure there would be lots on posts on the message board lamenting the situation. But when the head coach himself has no pride, that's a different story.
We need a chart, with data 'n everything, of the Big Ten's whiniest coaches.
So, honest question: Is Illinois really that much more dangerous with Dosunmu? MSU provided the blueprint on how to defend him. And when he gets frustrated and tries to force things, their whole offense turns into... the opposite of UM. They looked flat-out terrible in that MSU game. With him out of the lineup, Illinois distributes the ball much better.
He's a great player, but through 2 games I don't see the drop-off that some are projecting.
MSU provided the blueprint on how to defend him.
To be fair, the refs probably won’t let other teams get away with punching him in the face on the way to the basket.
The compliment I'll give Sparty is how they completely exposed how to beat Illinois in a pretty straight forward way. Make Ayo go left and double Kofi because he doesn't pass out of double teams. We only have to worry about one of those things now
Isn't the margin of victory component of the NET rankings capped at 10 points? Doesn't that completely destroy any of Izzo's arguments?
Even if it was true, turning one win from a regular win to a blowout is not going to move MSU from 77 to like 35. Maybe they would top out at 73. They are 13-10
Much as I hate it, MSU belongs on the same tier as at least IU.
How the hell is our only loss to, ultimately, the worst team in the B10?
I'd like to point out that even if Illinois got to play UM when they were originally scheduled AND won that game (not remotely a given), they'd still be 2 games behind UM today and UM would be facing, I don't know, a closing stretch of PSU and two MSU games. Their conference chances wouldn't be remotely better off.
Izzo doesn't run up the score? BS. I remember that POS leaving Cleaves in the game when he was up by 50. I hope we beat him by 50 in the first game and 60 in the second game.
My only quibble with the rankings: Indiana.
Indiana's efficiency rankings may qualify them for Tier IV, but there is no way that team is playing at the same level as Rutgers and Maryland. Not even sure they are close to MSU right now.
Iowa's coach sniping. illinois' coach acting like an asshat. Tom Izzo being Tom Izzo.
MBB just needs to be John Wickian.
Tell them. Tell them all. Whoever comes, I'll kill them. I'll kill them all.
Of course you will.
I feel like you're misreading the tea leaves about Ayo. He'll play. If he weren't playing, the Illini would use this time to make excuses about going into the game without a top player.
I'd be shocked if he didn't play. His nose could fall off two minutes into the game and he'd still play.
Happy Trails: Pitino Jr.
I gotta be fun for Ace to do these write ups sitting on the summit of the mountain top while being provided so much wonderful material from our competition.
Brad Underwood looks like somebody in 1955 who was time-teleported to 2021.
He's the spitting image of Brendan Gleeson (Mad Eye Moody from Harry Potter).
Izzo "never runs up the score" ... except pretty much every chance he's had to do so against Michigan.
Late to this, but I think it's wild that MSU is below some of these other teams in the NET. Looking at Torvik's Net forcast:
https://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php
1-10 in Q1 Auburn is above MSU. So are (Q1 records):
0-5 St. Marys
0-3 Davidson
0-3 Memphis
2-11 Penn St
2-10 Indiana
Wright State is above MSU and is 15-3 in Q4!
Belmont is right above MSU at 0-0 in Q1, but 17-1 in Q4.
--------
I think (hope?) that this year the committee just looks at things like that and says "I don't really care about the NET ranking, MSU is (hopefully) 14-12 with some huge wins and is getting in"
I also think (know?) that an organization that lost 2 billion dollars last year might want to prioritize bigger programs this year to try to recoup some of that lost revenue.
I really don't understand how OSU is still on the 1 line after their 0-3 week...
Until I physically see it on Selection Sunday, MSU will be a six seed.
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