"We count the early games (November/December) just the same as we count the late games (February/March)"
That statement was just made right now unambiguously by the Committee Chair in an ESPN Interview.
That's insane.
What you do by the time it's February/March should count much more than what you did in November/December.
There is no recognition of improvement? There is no acknowledgement of failure to improve?
What's the point then?
I don't agree with that at all, especially for trying predict performance to seed a tournament.
March Michigan would wipe the floor with December Michigan. They are not the same team at all.
That's an arbitrary self-inflicted rule that they can and should change.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:20 PM ^
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see San Diego State (coached by old Michigan assistant Brian Dutcher) beat Houston. Would have been a fun matchup with Bill Frieder had he not retired after last season. Dutcher has kept the tournament streak alive for the Aztecs.
Surely, you mean the one coach who delivered a NC - Steve Fisher??
My bad - I'm up waaayyy too early this morning and should never post prior to coffee.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
So can Arizona State
March 12th, 2018 at 12:36 AM ^
is my biggest headscratcher. ya, they beat xavier. great win. but that is basically the sole reason they got in. USC finished 2nd in the PAC12 and lost in the conf finals. ASU finished tied for 8th (8-10); four games behind USC.
how in the hell does ASU get in over USC. absolutely no common sense was used there.
it's like the reverse of the msu vs UM seeding. no consistency was applied at all; especially for teams within the same conference.
They also beat KU, so they have two 1-seeds under their belt
March 11th, 2018 at 10:32 PM ^
That was the trigger for me. Not anything to do with Michigan. It was Oklahoma.
The Committee Chair publically acknowledged that Oklahoma was not playing well, but said that because of some November/December wins, they got in.
That's it? Grab a few wins in November/December when many opponents are still trying to figure things out and then take the rest of the year off?
March 11th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
The complete opposite of how football works.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:20 PM ^
I like non-con games being meaningful too
March 11th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
to do it this year. It makes no sense to look for ulterior motives when they did just what they said they would do. I
think they may be overlooking something though. Those early games went a long way towards determining the relative strengths of the conferences. All those non-conference wins by Oklahoma made their Big 12 opponents schedules look better for playing OU. Then OU benefits from playing them.
The non-conference games with other major conferences basically count double. The best way to remedy that might be to overweight the last ten games or so like they used to do.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^
They at least get Notre Dame though
March 11th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Agree. I don't get the MSU love from the analysts. What about being down by 27 points to Northwestern says final four. Instead they get an undeserved spot in Detroit for avoiding all of the good teams in the big ten.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:36 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
I heard about 2-3 people on CBS/ESPN pick them to win the national championship which is crazy.
March 11th, 2018 at 11:59 PM ^
the 4th favorite behind Villanova, UVA and Duke. We were next at 10-1, the best in the West Regional.
March 12th, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^
Taking the field over MSU would be a nice bet
March 12th, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
By any decent predictive metric, they're underseeded. Massey (who weights recent games more heavily) has them #5, kenpom has them #6.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
They are ranked 5th in Kenpom and 9th in RPI. They have a good overall SOS (45) and a solid non-conference SOS (82), and 6 quandrant 1 wins.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:17 PM ^
March 12th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
"They got in as a 10 seed. What were they, a number one seed before they went 2-8?"
March 11th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
This actually makes perfect sense. Why should late games matter more? The goal of the selection committee isn't to get the 68 best teams in the field but the 68 most deserving teams based on an entire years resume. Who cares if a team is the most improved over the season? Don't suck at the beginning of the season? Also discounting early season games destroys non-conference meaning.
If you are playing better at the end of the year thats great that you have a better chance to win the tourney, it doesn't magically replace the first half of the season.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
What is more "deserving" than improvement?
March 11th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^
That makes zero sense.
LSU should be the 3 seed then.
March 11th, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^
No but they deserve to be in the tourney. Of course LSU doesn't deserve a 3 seed, what an asinine statement. The entire resume matters. Its not saying early games count more, its saying they all count the same. Michigan's lose to LSU is why they aren't above msu on the s curve. The reason they are a 3 seed and lsu isn't in the tourney is because of the other 30 games that happened this year.
If a team starts 0-20 but wins its last 10 games including multiple wins over top 10 teams do you think they should be in the tourney? They played well in March which is I guess all that matters
March 12th, 2018 at 12:28 AM ^
The AP poll is completely meaningless when it comes to what the committee looks at. You need to break it down into wins and losses based upon quandrant.
March 12th, 2018 at 12:47 AM ^
the committee penalizes UM for the LSU loss, but they ignore all of the okla losses. that's the problem I have. they also ignored all of ASU losses.
zero consistency. logic of selection was seriously flawed this year.
Did losing to LSU hurt us? Yes. And if we hadn't lost that game we are probably either in the same place or at best swapped with MSU. The bigger loss for us was Northwestern.
Did Oklahoma losing a shit load to end the season hurt them even more than losing to LSU hurt us? By your statement, no. By reality: yes. Hell yes. They almost fell out of the tournament. They only made it because no one knew how to stop Trae Young until the end of January. They beat Kansas on January 23rd. They were probably a 2-3 seed if the season ended then with three of their four losses at that time to tournament teams and also five wins over tournament teams (seeded 3, 4, and 6 with two wins against the six). They really were in a great spot 6 weeks ago. Now, they are a weak 10 seed and get Duke if they muster a win against URI.
Read what you said again and then try to put some nuance in your life.
March 12th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Michigna is a 3 seed, Oklahoma is a 10 seed. I think they got penalized for their losses.
Yes they 100% should be in if they win their last 10 games, because that means they won their conference tournament.
Happy Monday!
March 11th, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^
The late games should matter more because you're picking the 68 best teams as of March 11, not of December 11. Teams should be chosen/seeded based on how their current form is.
That's not to say that November/December games shouldn't count at all; they just shouldn't count equally to late-season games.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^
Exactly.
Late wins are tougher wins.
You are playing tournament-tough teams in March who have figured things out.
You're not playing teams that are still figuring out where the pieces fit.
It's especially relevant in CBB because of all the young / new players that teams often have each year.
November / December teams are still work-in-process. Wins against them are not as revealing. They should not count the same.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:43 PM ^
Because they are against teams (like Michigan) that have figured things out and are out of pre-season mode.
A win against March-Michigan this year is worth much more than a win against December-Michigan.