Week One: Three Top 25 teams lost - perspectives?
Week One of the season is now in the books. Three Top 25 teams lost - LSU, Clemson, and TCU.
With the FSU v LSU matchup - it was assured that at least one Top 25 team would suffer a defeat. But, three?
A lot of views about the polls - and, that polls shouldn’t start until October. Polling is what it is.
My take on the games.
1. FSU over LSU. This surprised me. I thought LSU would win, and - win the SEC West this season, defeating Bama in Tuscaloosa on the way. Now, I have no idea what to think about LSU.
2. Colorado over TCU. I thought Coach Prime and the Buffs would come up short on the road. I didn’t see much of the game - and, was surprised at the score when we re-started our post game tailgate and turned the game on. This puts a very different view on the week two schedule with Nebraska visiting Boulder.
3. Duke over Clemson. I realize there’s another thread on this game. This also caught me by surprise. I think it’s Schadenfreude to a degree - and, reflects on the status of ACC football - which now appears to be FSU’s to lose - after only one game.
Did two ACC teams defeat two SEC teams this weekend? FSU over LSU, and North Carolina over South Carolina. If you add Utah v Florida - that makes three OOC losses for the SEC. A very nice weekend from my perspective.
What do you think? Early thoughts on week two?
September 5th, 2023 at 8:23 AM ^
Cade Klubnik looks like a guy who will be a really good QB as he develops further, if he survives long enough. I was genuinely impressed with his toughness because he got smacked around all game. And running down a DB after that fumble recovery was incredible. I can see why Harbaugh wanted him. Clemson looks like a team that could have a really good season but I think greatness is out of reach. The ACC seems a little more competitive than years past and is clearly FSU’s to lose.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
Let me see if I understand you. Clemson has been on a slide the last two years. This year, they open with a team that has been an ACC football doormat for most of it's existence, but has been a middle-range ACC team in recent years. That historic doormat just blew Clemson out of the stadium. Your take is that Clemson could have a really good season, but greatness is out of reach. I think you're pretty safe with the latter thought. But the former thought? I can't imagine any Clemson fans are thinking now that that they "could have a really good season".
September 5th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
I just want to ask - did you happen to watch the Clemson/Duke game? Clemson isn't nearly as outright-bad as people here are making it seem. They blew multiple touchdown opportunities and handed Duke that game, for the most part. For me, it was akin to Michigan losing to Michigan State in 2021. A loss that probably shouldn't have happened, and doesn't, nine times out of ten.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
Even though they blew multiple TDs, Duke, freaking Duke, was able to drive on them consistently and their defense gave Clemson fits the entire game. Even if Clemson didn't screw up those opportunities, this game still would've been close and we'd still be saying "Clemson almost lost to Duke and Klubnik looked mediocre"
September 5th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Clemson's only chance to score a TD in the 1st half last night was because of a Duke muffed punt. Klubnik threw for under 5 YPA and Duke averaged more yards per play overall and in both the passing and running game.
Yes, Clemson had 2 FGs blocked and had 3 turnovers (Duke had 2), but Clemson didn't look like the better team who was just snakebitten. Duke didn't look out of place for a majority of that game which says a lot.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Eesh! no. UM was leading for the most part, and may have won had the TD not been reversed. Clemson didn't score for the last 40 minutes of the game. Came closest on a missed FG from 23 yards.
Those two games are not comparable.
September 5th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
For me, it was akin to Michigan losing to Michigan State in 2021.
Clemson blew some opportunities but come on, you're comparing a 28-7 loss to 37-33 (when we led 30-14).
September 5th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
Duke moved the ball at will in the second half, despite not throwing it well. Clemson was sloppy with the ball and didn't really threaten downfield much. You can only throw underneath for so long before the field starts to constrict. It is also hard to call 28-7 a fluke loss. That's some OSU-style rationalization.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
Clemson looks like a team that could have a really good season but I think greatness is out of reach.
Duke isn't as bad as people think of when they hear "Duke football." They went 9-4 last year.
That being said, Clemson looked bad against them. Klubnik threw for 209 yards on 43(!) attempts. Will Shipley is really good, but you can't build an offense out of him. The defense wasn't terrible necessarily, but they still got bullied when it mattered most (and couldn't cover a RB in the flat). You assume the 2 blocked FGs can be cleaned up (but also, how do you let that happen twice?!) but outside of that they had terrible turnovers while also only having a chance to score in the 1st half because of a Duke muffed punt.
Overall Clemson did look like the more talented team and while I already said Duke isn't terrible, Clemson should at least be more talented than them. They didn't lose because of fluky plays, they just straight up lost.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
Duke was 8-4 in the regular season, with early non-con wins against Temple, Northwestern, and NC A&T. Their best conference win (5-3 record) was... Wake Forest? A team that finished 7-5 (3-5 in ACC) before beating Mizzou in a bowl game?
September 5th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
Sure, but when you hear "Duke football" you usually assume they're 3-9 with blowout losses to everyone. Their 4 losses were by a combined 16 points last year so they weren't typical doormat Duke. They're at least somewhat competent while being limited.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
They're "somewhat competent" in a weak ACC. Cool, they don't suck. Doesn't mean they're actually good. Saying "9 wins" doesn't mean what it used to. Mediocre ass teams manage 8-9 wins ever year now. So until Duke actually accomplishes something noteworthy, then this game is an indictment against Clemson and nothing more.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
I think that game is and indictment on the current state of Clemson football.
I also think Duke isn't NW level nerd school that plays football for a few weeks every year.
Both things can exist in the same universe.
Duke went 10-25 in their last 3 seasons under Cutcliffe in an ACC that wasn't very good either (2019 had 1 ranked team). They won 4 conference games in those 3 seasons. They almost amassed that many wins in a single season last year and did win more ACC games in that 1 season than the previous 3.
You must have misread my first comment. I said Duke isn't 1-11 bad anymore, but also that Clemson looked bad against them.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
My whole point is that "hey 9-4!" doesn't really mean much anymore. Yes, for Duke that is a vast improvement. It can still be a not-good team. Seeing as, again, that 9-4 team won zero games of note. Yeah, close losses to Kansas, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Pitt. They were middling in a middling schedule. Congrats on not being the doormat anymore, but this win isn't a testament (yet) for Duke actually being a good team, but instead that Clemson has fallen off hard. Now, if Duke actually steps up to be someone this season, last night was the beginning of it. If they wallow in the middle again, this game will barely end up as a footnote.
September 5th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
This blog is consistent if nothing else. We will tell you why that 5-7 team was actually pretty good and the 9-4 was pretty terrible. Dismiss any positive for anything on this planet and tell you that 15-0 Georgia season was fools gold. ;-)
More "Yeah buts" than my 11 year old.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
Dabo is an average coach, who got blessed with two generational talent QBs who got him the bulk of his fame.
Every Clemson gave I watched that wasn't and ACC title game or playoff game, his teams have looked undisciplined and incomplete.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Clemson just got bullied by Duke. I know this is a decent Duke team…but its still Duke football. Clemson is staring down 9-3 tops imo which would be a pretty big disappointment for them
September 5th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Klubnik looked like a steaming pile of crap. What did he show other than he might be another Clifford type of QB.
September 5th, 2023 at 7:32 PM ^
I was genuinely impressed with his toughness because he got smacked around all game.
4th and 6 with the game on the line, Klubnik scrambled and slid SHORT by a half yard. JJ would never slide short in that scenario. In fact, he wouldn't slide PERIOD.
This reflects the kid's poor situational awareness and perhaps, questionable "toughness."
September 5th, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^
Week one is too early to start drawing conclusions, other than LSU needs to work on its physicality. They were manhandled by FSU. Clemson can’t be as bad as they looked last night, and you knew TCU was headed back down to some level of mediocrity.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
LMAO @ Clemson!!! I didn't expect that to be a competitive game, but Dabo's charges surprised me... All it means is that FSU is going to run over the ACC like it's a G5 conference, instead of merely the expected 'win the conference'.
As for TCU, they're worse than anyone thought they'd be. I do think CU's offense is real, but the way TCU plays football turned out to be right up Prime's alley. I don't think that win is transferrable to a better all-around football team that hangs out near the top of a decent conference. But CU won't be a pushover this season like many thought...
I'm not surprised that FSU won the game, but I am surprised it was such a lopsided blowout. Kinda puts the Norvell Rebuild into perspective - FSU hung with him for a couple of bad seasons, and it's working out in spades. He out-coached the pants off Brian Kelly's Cajun Faammily to the point where Kelly had no idea what happened midway through the 4th. I couldn't have cared less who won that game when it started, but by the end the destruction was so complete that I was hoping it'd get worse for Kelly. I mean, he kinda deserves that, right?
We know Utah is a solid team, and I wasn't stunned to see them beat UF. This is not your Grandfather's UF...
September 5th, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
I'm not surprised that FSU won the game, but I am surprised it was such a lopsided blowout.
I do believe that he's correct. A 45-24 score can be considered a blowout, as can 45-23 and 42-27.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
September 5th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Football is, so often, such a narrow thing. Those Clemson turnovers deep in Duke territory completely flipped the score of that game.
Elko and Norvell seem to be very good coaches.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Today's useless state-based trivia: Another guy named Norvell (Jay) was recently the coach at Nevada. Elko is a town in Nevada. How about that?
September 5th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Holy shit...
::reaches for tin foil::
September 5th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
Duke had two crushing turnovers in the first half as well, though. It works both ways.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
I was shocked how meh LSU looked after all the pre-season hype they were getting. I do think FSU is a tough matchup with their WRs but they were wide open a lot of the game.
TCU was overrated based off last season. My guess is Colorado will end up around or a little better than .500.
Clemson is the most overrated team in the country. Their QB play has not gotten any better and their defense isn't even as good as it has been. Let's start looking into their recruits asap as their hype is going down AGAIN after this year.
Go Blue!
September 5th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Jayden Daniels is over-rated for LSU. I thnk FSU is also going to be pretty decent this year.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Honestly, has Brian Kelly ever won a huge game? I suppose last year's win over Bama on a 2-point conversion would qualify. But, despite winning a lot of games at ND, I can't really think of any huge victories. He certainly had some good wins. But, he benefitted from arch-rival USC being weak throughout his tenure, Michigan also being relatively weak through much of it (though he managed to lose quite a few to us). But, the kind of high-leverage games (FSU, Miami, Ohio State, top-5 UM teams) that ND was playing in the 90's, were really not part of Kelly's ND years.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Yeah I think Colorado's over/under was 3.5, and most pundits I think were leaning the under. A 3-9 season seemed likely. But now Colorado looks like a solid 7-5 team.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
Regarding FSU over LSU, what you thought going in is still probably true and that outcome speaks more to FSU’s strength than LSU’s weakness. That actually was very like a game of probable ACC champion and probable SEC west champion, regardless of outcome. FSU is just THAT good - and that should be the take from this game, not that LSU is bad. Just watch.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
So, you watched that game, LSU crumble and fail to play defense, and you still think they're going to beat Nick Saban? Don't get in a land war in Asia, and don't underestimate Nick Saban in high-leverage games.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
How often have teams managed to beat Saban Bama in consecutive seasons?
September 5th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Saban 4-1 vs. Smart. 2-0 vs. Harbaugh, 2-3 vs. Lloyd Carr (1-4 without Spartan Bob)
September 6th, 2023 at 1:06 AM ^
Inconceivable.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
Without looking at specific teams, and only considering the innate uncertainty of the first poll of the season in this innately uncertain year, I'm surprised only 3 of the top 25-ranked teams lost.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
One thing I took away is how quickly things can change, even with prominent programs. Clemson was on top of the words and a seemingly a lock for the CFB playoff every year. Of course schools like USC, Texas, Michigan, etc....go through cycles, but I am so glad for where our program is at!!
September 5th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
Preseason expectations are increasingly dumb in the transfer portal era.
I mean, preseason polls have always been stupid, but you could at least have some idea of how a team is going to look. Not any more, see exhibits TCU and FSU.
Could it be a down year for the SEC? Nah. It won't be. But that's not to say those three OOC losses weren't enjoyable.
The last hurrah of the PAC-12 looks like it should be a doozy. A lot of very good teams. Remains to be seen if any are elite or they'll just beat each other up and produce a 3 loss champion.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
THIS is the takeaway.
Pre-season polls should be banned until week 8.
I honestly don't know why Colorado beating TCU was considered such a huge upset when both teams had turned over so much. To me, anyone in Vegas setting odds on that game was just guessing.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
"Pre-season polls should be banned until week 8."
Yeah but then they wouldn't be pre-season.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
I did not get to watch most of these games, and in the case of the Clemson game, I watched none of it. But I'll offer some thoughts:
1) LSU had a serious "come to Jesus" moment on Sunday night, particularly in that second half. They got manhandled on defense, and just looked overwhelmed by FSU's physicality. I never thought I'd see the day where an LSU defense's toughness was called into question, as I feel like that's been their M.O. for years. Maybe moreso under Les Miles, but all the same, still never felt like they were soft. All their goals are still in front of them, but at least so far, it does not look like LSU has officially "arrived" under Kelly.
2) I'm still playing a bit of "wait and see" with Colorado. This is not me hating on Prime at all. What they did was remarkable, especially considering where Colorado was last year, or even just nine months ago. But this doesn't change the fact that they still have depth issues. Can Travis Hunter keep this level of play up, along with the volume, over a whole season? What happens when they play a team with a real defense? TCU is the defending national runner-up, but the engine that made that whole team go last year (Duggan, Miller, Johnston), they're all gone, and the CFP went to show that their defense is pretty rotten. Again, major props to Prime for what so far appears to be a big turnaround, but how far they can go this year? I don't know. Bowl eligibility is definitely a realistic goal. But Pac-12 contender? I'm not there yet. But if they beat Oregon or USC, all bets are off.
3) I watched none of the Clemson game, but I do wonder if Swinney's time has passed him by, at least as far as being the dominant force they were when they had Watson/Lawrence as QB. They had two straight generational QBs, and the QB play has taken a massive drop-off since then. I don't know how much of that is due to poor play-calling or poor OL play. Again, I don't watch Clemson all that much, but its fair to ask if Clemson's title window under Swinney has come and gone. The ACC very much looks like FSU's to lose now.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Clemson's rise wasn't due to QB-play alone. They also churned out incredible defenses - particularly D-Line. They started losing coordinator continuity as well. Swinney's teams started to get good after he homogenized the coordinators and they were able to keep them paid and staffed for years.
They also kept the church pews stuffed with cash, apparently. Now that everyone can pay what Clemson used to pay it's harder for them.
September 5th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
I think a lot of what happens with Colorado depends on whether that conference is complete trash or whether some teams are as good or better than expected. If Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State end up being really trashy Colorado could win 9-10 games.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
I know a lot of folks are up in arms about the weak Non conference schedule but I’m happy the team has a few games to work out the kinks in the hose with Harbaugh out.
I have faith in the players and the assistant, err head coaches that they could beat just about anyone but you never know when these upsets are going to happen.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
FSU is going undefeated. They'll have to go to Clemson and win, but the rest of the schedule is set up with some good teams but not great (Pitt, Duke, at Florida). Can probably afford one loss.
My playoff teams based on my overreactions from Week 1:
Georgia - easy schedule. Is Georgia
Michigan - Wefense
Florida State - see above
Notre Dame - They're beating osu in a few weeks. Could then probably afford one loss.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
I'm with you on Notre Dame. Hartman is such a massive upgrade for them and now their 3 tough games don't look quite as tough. Clemson (woof), Ohio State at home, and USC at home (who may give up 40+ point to any team with a pulse).
September 5th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
If ND can beat OSU I think ND/USC is a play in game for the Playoff.