Ticket Watch Acts Like It's Never Been There
Sponsor Note: TicketIQ has been our longest and best ticket partner because they keep it real, and because Greg Cohen sends me emails like “I’ve got some budget and I will throw the whole thing at you if you write a Ticket Watch right now!” I’ve also learned half of what I know about the online secondary market from Jesse Lawrence, who’s got to be on the list of ten people in the world who know the most about online ticket sales. If you’re going to be looking on an online site, try the one that’s trying to support us instead of fleece you. TicketIQ’s whole thing is they’re on your side.
I’m going to add on my own that I’ve checked their site versus Stubhub for the same seats and they’re often 15% less because StubHub jacks up their fees so high. These are the same seat (a single out of a pack of 3 in the upper corner):
TicketIQ | StubHub |
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Every Michigan fan not holed up in COVID protocol because of a possibly false or months old positive of one family member in a precautionary pre-Thanksgiving PCR test wants to go to the Big Ten Championship. While the championship’s secondary market always gets a flood of interest after the field is set, there’s been nothing like this before. This woke a beast. Via Greg:
Michigan fans are legion, have money, will travel, and haven’t been. Limited supply, meet impossible demand. Since we’re all buyers I’m just going to focus on that side of the deal. We’ll start with the main question:
When do I buy?
Um, last week would have been good? Greg put this chart together for me:
He said he noticed a similar thing with The Game last week, where there was always more market wherever tickets dropped to, so there wasn’t a meaningful drop-off until the dip at the very end. The Michigan-MSU game at Crisler a few years back is another in that vein: there is just a lot of “I will go but tickets are too expensive right now” demand.
If you aren’t going to pay $450 to get in the door, that means you have to ask yourself how much steel is in your stomach. This is going to be true for every event: the secondary ticket market these days has so many professionals working it that there are always seats until about half an hour before the event, because the markets get shut down. If you really want to risk it, find a good tailgate location or a bar where your phone has good signal, and work it with the understanding that if it doesn’t happen you will be fine outside.
You also have being a good fan in your last minute arsenal. People buy four when they’re asked how many they need because why wouldn’t you? Then they get only so many people who can come, or someone tests positive, or someone is too drunk before the game and he and his very angry spouse have to sit out. You can luck into a great spot, especially if you’re flying solo, if you just mingle in the crowd on gameday, especially near the stadium.
[After THE JUMP: What's my price point? Where are all the tickets???]
What do I target?
The seats went retail for $200+ so figure that $300 get-in is a bargain on this one, and if you want a good seat that’ll be $500.
Where are the tickets right now?
[UPDATE 12/1 around noon: Since this article posted we've seen a bunch of brokers drop their packs in the $300/ticket range. Market's starting to move finally]
Many of them are in the hands of brokers or fans of teams who thought they were going (including ours). According to Jesse, only a few hundred seats, most of them on the lower level, hit the market after the market was set. Much of the buyosphere on the other hand has been battling for upper tier get-in seats that nobody’s putting up, hence the market bulge.
The allotments to the two teams are pathetically small. Michigan used their point system and the line got drawn at are you an alum in your 40s who’s been purchasing seats at the 50 yard line for 10 years. Larry Lage reported that Michigan received more than twice as many requests as they had allotment:
#Michigan received 23,000 requests for the school's allotment of 11,000 tickets for the Big Ten championship game.
— Larry Lage (@LarryLage) November 29, 2021
Though Iowa fans have been before, it’s been since that 2015 game against MSU, and they’re close by and larger than you realize. Wisconsin fans have been letting their shares go to waste (and the Big Ten has used that to decrease school allotments) because they’re used to getting trounced by Ohio State. Iowa fans may not feel confident, but I doubt we’ll see a substantial portion of their seats hitting the open market.
That accounts for 22,000/70,000 seats in Lucas Oil Stadium that are spoken for, a rather pathetic number considering how many die-hards Big Ten fanbases need to take care of. It also means there are 48,000 more seats to be sold and resold as layer upon layer of people in charge of things find ways to take their cuts. I doubt there were 500 seats sold directly from Ticketmaster after The Game. Maybe none.
Instead, these seats were purchased long ago by ticket brokers of varying forms, some more useful than others (I like the guys who price them at the likelihood of your team going). Most of the *good* seats were picked up to be sold in exclusive markets that we all don’t have access to, leading to this weird map where there are a lot of max-priced get-in tickets in crummy sections.
You will note there are more seats available on the top than the bottom; that is Iowa vs Michigan.
There are going to be more tickets hitting the market and getting snatched up, probably with a bunch of them on Friday as people who bought four and can fill two put their other pair for sale. There *are* lots of people in this market who have tickets to make a buck, which means they’ll be more savvy than you about how to sell their seats, but that you don’t have to panic about the current supply being The Supply.
Is there any good news?
Tickets are commodities, not stocks, so anyone holding one who’s not going is going to want to discharge that, and the closer to Saturday night we get the more desperate they will be do to so. However, there’s also a waiting market right now of fans who aren’t going to make the trip if it’s $550/ticket but might jump at $350. So as the market comes down it’s going to get shot back up again. The unfulfilled demand of this game is going to keep prices high all week. But you won’t screw yourself by not acting fast.
Cheating seats together:
One good strategy for high-priced games is to buy singles that can be functionally doubles. One trick I’ve used before is to buy a seat lower down, and then a seat that is *next to* a seat on the aisle or even better, next to the last seat in a section. That means you are sitting next to a single person, who might be more than happy to trade down so they get a better seat and you get to sit with your friend.
Jesse put together a whole blog entry a couple of years ago on how they label their sections, and the seats within those sections. Things you should be aware of:
- Seat 1 is the seat closest to the previous section (so Seat 1 of Section 2 is going to be closest to Section 1). There are 12 to 28 seats per row. So if you can find two singles in sections next to each other, go low/high and you could be within a few seats of each other.
- Note that not all sections exist so, e.g. you could find a seat in 121 next to one in 118.
(via)
November 30th, 2021 at 4:09 PM ^
The graph is clear: Iowa drives the price up, Wisconsin drives it down, Ohio State has no effect at all.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
Valenti said OSU fans bought everything up earlier in the year and are refusing to sell to Michigan fans out of spite.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
osu? do something out of spite??
Say it isn't so...
November 30th, 2021 at 7:00 PM ^
def a function of how long it's been since a team has been there and since wisconsin has never taken more than a year off (incredible and also dumb - need realignment), they have the least impact on ticket prices
November 30th, 2021 at 4:10 PM ^
Great post! I have been watching Stubhub regularly since I was denied by the Ticket office Sunday night. Lowest Stubhub all in for 2 tickets was the following:
$345 per ticket at 8PM Sunday night
$424 at 10:30 AM yesterday
$472 at 5:00 PM yesterday
$541 at 9:00 AM this morning. This seems to be the peak and is around $470 ish now.
There are some things I am noticing such as alottments of 24 tickets showing up at one time. Very suspicious. Only thing that will bring down the price quickly is somewhat people stop buying because one seller tries to go lower than another seller. I know this is easier said then done and a lot of people want to be there but this is the best way to swing this in a Buyer's favor.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:20 PM ^
We went online to get our tickets during 4Q, paid about $250 per, up near the top. We probably could have gotten seats a little lower if we'd chosen a section on the Iowa side, and in retrospect I wished we'd done that. Us M fans are hungry for this game and I expect to be in lots of good company and we'll make it a very partisan crowd. :)
November 30th, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^
Wow! Those secondary market ticket prices. Michigan fandom is just different than everyone else. Go Blue!
November 30th, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Just think. The CFP championship game is back in Indy.
So not trying to get ahead of myself, but this issue could be even worse if we make it to the CFP championship game.
November 30th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Hoping Ticket office sets limits of 2 per account holder for CFP Championship. My fear is all of the people who got tickets from the University for this game are the older less intense crowd and Indy is going to sound like a funeral home.
November 30th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
My only retort is that if they are willing to go to Indy for the game this weekend, then they will certainly go to the game in Indy for the CFP championship.
Limiting it to 2 tickets per account probably won't do much since A LOT of season tickets holders, including myself, were shut out of this game and had to go to secondary market. The demand is only going to go UP if we make it to the CFP championship.
November 30th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
Despite being a season ticket holder for ~15 years, I didn't make the cut. According to the email that we got, the account holders were able to buy 4 at a time. I would have thought that it would be limited to the number of season tickets that you have.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
Tickets will start at $1,000 after we take out Cincy in the CFP semi-final. It would be fun, but ...
November 30th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
If we make it I will guess that $1,000 will be a pipe dream. I believe the championship tickets are $475 and $650 or so at face.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that game would rival prices from that Georgia vs Alabama championship that was played in Atlanta.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
Can you imagine the ticket prices for a Michigan-Notre Dame semifinal? That would easily be the highest rated broadcast in CFP history.
November 30th, 2021 at 10:21 PM ^
Saw tix at $1200 last night and tonight, but with fees from StubHub, that’s over $1500.
December 1st, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
Beat Iowa! Go Blue!
November 30th, 2021 at 11:40 PM ^
Did you try finding a hotel in Lebanon or Brownsburg? Roughly 30 minutes from downtown Indy.
November 30th, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
There was way too much red between the 40s last Saturday. I wish they would move those people who sold their season tickets to osu fans to the bottom on the priority list for the championship game.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
That, or they lose their seats entirely
November 30th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
Did the article not get completely posted? This feels like it is maybe missing a conclusion..? Also that is a suspicious bullet point you've got there at the end
November 30th, 2021 at 5:18 PM ^
It just a bad joke that I removed before posting the article.
I did have a final section planned on SEC championship prices because that's had some major games, but the data were not easy to collect, and it wasn't going to be that informative.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Saving mine for a second trip to Indy on January 8 ;)
November 30th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
Most Iowa fans are larger than I realize, but not all
November 30th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
I did it. Saturday within 15 minutes of the final snap I overpaid for 2 tix in section 637.
Over coffee Sunday morning I asked my wife why she didn't stop me and she just said Happy Birthday. I have a December birthday.
Plus I live in the Indy burbs so I would have kicked myself if I didn't drive down for the game.
About an hour later one of my oldest friends texted me and said he bought tix in section 637 and wondered if they could stay with us. Must have been destiny. Lol
November 30th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
You willing to take in a fellow wolverine at your house on Saturday? Kidding…kinda
Because the only thing worse than getting tickets is getting a room in Indy for a reasonable price.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
A lot of hotels have 24 or 48 hour cancellation policies to ensure you aren't charged. I bet you could find a very well located hotel if you call around at the end of the week.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:24 PM ^
Agreed!
I’m checking every day. I did a Kayak search today and saw that the Rodeway Inn outside of Indy about 20 miles was $2k/night. Crazy!
Worst case is that I’ll drive back to Chicago right after the game. It’s about a 3hr drive. Not ideal, but not bad.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
I got 3 in section 613 (50 Yd Line) for $350/ea right after the game, but before Minny beat Wisconsin. Seems like a good deal now.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
Seth, if you and your wife are fully vaccinated and you're not symptomatic (and especially if she's not symptomatic) I don't think you have to quarantine.
The CDC guidelines are clear: "People who are fully vaccinated do NOT need to quarantine after contact with someone who had COVID-19 unless they have symptoms."
Get a negative test later in the week and get to the game, man! Hassan Haskins!
If she is fully vaccinated but not showing symptoms, it's either a dead virus like you suggested, or the virus was in her system briefly when she took the test but was cleared before becoming "infected" / covid the disease (exactly what the vaccine primed her immune system to do), or it's a false positive. In all cases, the CDC doesn't require you to quarantine because she's almost certainly not contagious.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:12 PM ^
Yeah, although the viral loads of vaccinated vs unvaccinated person might be similar (within same confidence interval at least) studies have that a vaccinated person clears the virus much quicker. I agree, take some at home antigen tests Thursday and celebrate in Indy!
Does MgoBlog get a media credential for the game?
November 30th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
First off if I could figure out a way to get down there who is going to watch my kids? Wife is not comfortable which one kid unvaccinated and another kid getting her 2nd shot Saturday having the kind of exposure to the kids that would entail. It's not like we can get one of our moms or babysitter.
We have been trying to get her a 2nd test for days. Issue is rates are so high they're instructing everyone to quarantine and turning down tests. Our standard (CDC has a political reality standard; we have a moral one) is based on what my friend who works in a hospital and her doctor said, which is quarantine a week before she can rejoin the family, then test everybody after 10 days before we can rejoin society. I wriggled and looked for ways to get out of this, believe me. I did not want to miss the game or spend this whole week with the kids downstairs conducting school. The doc said PCR negative plus spit test negative or 10 days. I agreed. I'm going to see it through.
I also have an ethical standard. If I become a vector for the disease in the Press Box or among former players or among fans, that's the kind of thing that's going to stick.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:42 AM ^
Most importantly, it sounds like no one is very sick, which I'm sure we're all glad to hear.
It does suck that you can't go, but it sounds like you have a standard and principle, and are sticking to it. Standards are easy to stick to when nothing's at stake.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
Two questions for Seth:
1)How many tickets were put aside for Michigan students?
2)Are you sure the ticket sites stop selling 30 minutes before the game? I know this isn't true for NBA games.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
I don't think very many were set aside for the students. It's not like this is a non-profit organization for collegiate Athletics using amateur athletes. This is an important business venture and it is being held in a pro Stadium so they can treat it like a pro operation.
It is different depending on the sites and their security protocols. It also has to do with the venue and how they have their security set up for digital tickets. And finally it has to do with the organization which does not want a mad Scramble for tickets at the end and would prefer ticket prices to remain high. From their perspective they already sold the seat and already have their money so they don't care if the seat stays empty but they do make some money in the secondary Market as well so they are interested in the price staying high. So yes some of them shut down trading a half hour before the game simply because they don't want the Final prices to actually reflect market prices
November 30th, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
Surprised that PSU fans weren't more fired up about that 2016 appearance.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
Good point. My guess is some combo of 1) their alum geo footprint being largely east coast vs midwest and hence isn't a drive away for most of them like it is for most other teams and 2) them kind of backing into it with two losses and little to no chance to make the playoff anyway. Their next appearance will likely indicate how much the relative impact of each might have been.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:33 PM ^
That PSU team started out 2-2 and then ran the table, including the upset of OSU. It was their first strong season since the sanctions and they were a big national story. Even if it's a bit of a drive from Pennsylvania to get there, I'd have thought more would have made the trip.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
I am going. Have a hotel room in Muncie for a reasonable price I booked last week. I think the ticket prices will plummet as we get closer to game time. Many factors. From looking at the various sites, there appear to be a lot of available tickets. There are numerous higher tier sections with 24 tickets available. These are obviously brokers. Right now, there are no hotel rooms available anywhere near Indy. Folks aren’t going to put down $700+ for two tickets without a hotel room. I think if you hang in there until just before kickoff, you can get in for reasonable price, which to me is anything under $300.
November 30th, 2021 at 9:16 PM ^
I’ve lived in or around Muncie all my life. If you need a place to eat at try Trust Your Butcher Steakhouse downtown Muncie on Walnut. Go Blue!
December 1st, 2021 at 7:42 PM ^
On Stubhub, ticket prices have fallen significantly since yesterday. Cheapest pair was $351, now $275. Just as I predicted! Lol
November 30th, 2021 at 8:48 PM ^
Another reason these prices will go down. This is the least desirable of the games ahead. Michigan is going to dominate this game. Watching Iowa is like watching paint dry. Michigan fans are well aware that the most likely scenario is we play Cincy in the semifinal, where we will be a 7-10 pt favorite. Then, it’s back to Indy for the NC game. Before they plunk down big $$ for this game, they’ll save their $$ for the NC game back in Indy.
November 30th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
Don't put the cart before the horse. We've got to win this game first. And even if it doesn't seem like a great matchup, the chance to see us win our first Big Ten title since 2004 is worth a lot. I think you're going to see a lot of maize and blue in the stands.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
Who else completely forgot Nebraska had played in a Big Ten Championship game?
December 1st, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
If you remember how that game went… I’m pretty sure Nebraska fans want to forget
November 30th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
I was going to fly in with my son. There is no way I’m paying $1000 for 600 level seats. IMO if you don’t have good seats in an NFL stadium it’s not worth it. Went to the orange bowl a few years ago and it was an awful experience in the nose bleeds.
I believe OSU fans are jacking up the market. I try to get my tickets on ebay to save the fees. There is a ton of Columbus or other Ohio town sellers.
December 1st, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
I would think buying tickets on eBay is only a step up from shady-ass Craigslist. I believe eBay formerly discouraged the practice. But your experience is positive?
November 30th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
I was thinking about going if seats were 100-200. But I'm not paying 500 for a seat. I don't want to take a chance driving 700 miles to watch the game in an Indy bar.
November 30th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
I was thinking about going if seats were 100-200. But I'm not paying 500 for a seat. I don't want to take a chance driving 700 miles to watch the game in an Indy bar.
November 30th, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^
I have an extra hotel room at the JW Marriott, walking distance to the stadium that I’m interested in some sort of trade for 1-2 tickets if anyone is interested.
December 1st, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
Smart move 0035! Hope it works out for you.
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