Around The Horns: Duncan Robinson Week, The Livers Effect, Teske vs. Davis, WBB Update
Quantifying The Livers Impact
After Brian's attempt to excise the Isaiah Livers-less games from Michigan's tempo-free stats in yesterday's game column, I figured I'd go straight to the source. Bart Torvik was kind enough to take the time to pull the exact numbers and it turns out Brian's method was a pretty solid workaround:
based on this, michigan is equivalent to the #11 team in the country when they've had isaiah livers and the #33 team when he's been out, with a particularly big dropoff on defense https://t.co/xK0KsjHbmf
— Ace Anbender (@AceAnbender) February 13, 2020
It's not a surprise that Michigan is much better with Livers than without. I did raise my eyebrows when seeing that the bigger on/off impact is on defense, though it makes sense: Livers doesn't initiate a lot of offense (though he's obviously the team's best shooter), while he's the team's best and most versatile wing defender—he's the only player who can reliably switch 1-4 without creating a mismatch for the opponent.
Add this to the evidence that, health permitting, Michigan will be a dangerous team to face in the postseason. They're still projected as an eight-seed in the Bracket Matrix, though they've moved up to a seven-seed on a good number of brackets. With Livers, they're performing more like a three-seed.
[Hit THE JUMP for the big man comparison, Duncan Robinson's outrageous shooting, and the women's team facing more adversity.]
The Big Men: A Tradeoff
Big Country time? [Campredon]
This was on point:
Country vs Sleep. A large part of Michigan's early futility was Jon Teske putting up a series of dispiriting bricks. Austin Davis entered and promptly went 4/4 from the floor. When he returned in the second half Northwestern was so focused on him that he got a bonafide triple team on one possession.
What's going on? Your author's theory is that Teske reacts badly to double teams and Davis does not. Northwestern was far more willing to dig on post players, and from multiple spots on the floor, than most other Big Ten teams.
While small sample size caveats apply, the post-up numbers from Synergy are stark:
Teske vs. hard double teams: 30 possessions, 18 points (0.6 PPP), 7/20 FG, 8 turnovers, 2 times fouled
Davis vs. hard double teams: 6 possessions, 9 points (1.5 PPP), 4/4 FG, 1 turnover, 1 time fouled
Teske looked sped up against Northwestern, which consistently threw double teams at him or at least threatened them, which often had the same impact. He defaulted to hook shots while fading away from the basket despite having a major size and experience advantage against his defenders most of the time.
Davis, by contrast, showed patience on the block. I love how he waits for the defense to commit on this play before unleashing a drop step—a move he appears more adept at than Teske—and hitting a reverse layup:
Davis has also been a much better finisher on offensive rebound putbacks in large part because of this ability to wait out the defense instead of immediately forcing up a shot.
Big Country has earned more minutes, particularly when Juwan Howard can steal them against backup centers or when Teske is having an off night. That said, I'm with former Wolverine Tim McCormick here:
Austin Davis has made 15 of his last 16 shots & Jon Teske is struggling, but don’t change the lineup. Michigan has won 4 of 5 and Davis is thriving vs tired starters & bench players. M needs the confident, non-conference version of Teske in March. Keep going to him.
— Tim McCormick (@TimMcCormick40) February 14, 2020
There's also the other end of the floor. Teske deters more shots at the rim and has more mobility on defense. Davis is more limited in what he can do and also struggles to stop players when on the ball—he's giving up a 56.7 eFG% to opponents compared to 48.5% for Teske, per Synergy. Michigan has been an excellent defensive team lately, even before Livers's return, with Teske getting the majority of the minutes at center.
Hopefully Howard can find the right balance or, ideally, Teske gets more comfortable in the post on offense.
Welcome To Duncan Robinson Week, Apparently
coming to All-Star weekend [Bryan Fuller]
The Miami Heat are a surprise top-four team in the Eastern Conference. Why am I mentioning that on a Michigan blog? Because Duncan Robinson is getting featured in SI as the key that unlocks Miami's best lineups because of his unbelievable three-point shooting and resulting gravity:
The numbers backup Robinson. The Heat have a 115.4 offensive rating with their sharpshooter on the floor, according to Basketball-Reference. When he sits, that number craters to 109.2. That’s the difference between a top-two offense in the league and one that’s in the bottom half. Even the Heat’s two All-Stars—Butler and Adebayo—need Robinson’s aura to thrive. The Heat have a 11.4 net rating when all three share the floor. It’s a 7.0 net rating when Robinson plays with the bench. But Butler and Adebayo have a minus-3.9 net efficiency when they play without Robinson’s shooting.
The whole article is well worth your time. On Wednesday night, Robinson buried six triples, becoming the first player in Heat history to hit five or more three-pointers in five consecutive games:
Robinson is making very nice NBA history:
Duncan Robinson made his 200th career 3-pointer last night. He reached that mark in just 69 games, 15 fewer than any other player in NBA history:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) February 13, 2020
69 - Robinson
84 - Donovan Mitchell
84 - Luka Doncic
86 - Damian Lillard
90 - Robert Covington
If you haven't had a chance to watch him this season, you can rectify that this weekend in a major way—Robinson isn't just a contestant in Saturday night's All-Star weekend three-point contest, he's the betting favorite:
Duncan Robinson went from 7-1 to 3-1 and is now the favorite in the three-point contest.
— Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) February 14, 2020
My heart is warm.
What a world.
WBB: Cursed?
extremely suboptimal [JD Scott]
The women's squad had a tough Thursday night. They were already down to fielding a team of just nine healthy players when the team's star, Naz Hillmon, went down with a shoulder injury early in what would be a hard-fought 66-60 loss to #19 Northwestern. The Wolverines had already been starting little-used freshman Maddie Nolan because of mounting injuries and now, with a critical push for the NCAA Tournament ahead, Hillmon's status is uncertain:
Barnes Arico did not have an update on Hillmon after the game, but the team already is playing shorthanded. Senior starting forward Kayla Robbins tore her ACL on Jan. 19 and is out for the season. Sophomore guard Danielle Rauch, who had picked up some of Robbins' minutes, suffered an injury in practice last week and missed her third straight game.
Hillmon briefly returned to the game after suffering the initial injury but had to sit the final 14 minutes of a game Michigan led for long stretches and had a chance to tie in the final minute. The Wolverines have a quick turnaround to Sunday's game at Rutgers, which is tied with Michigan for sixth in the Big Ten at 7-6. If Hillmon can't go, talented freshman center Izabel Varejao and 6'3" sophomore Emily Kiser will see increased roles.
February 14th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
It seems to be that sometimes the other players on the floor give the ball to Teske in the post out of a sense of "obligation" when Teske has not worked to get position in the post that warrants an entry pass. That is part his problem for not getting good position, part an issue with other players who played under Beilein and literally never threw a conventional post entry pass.
There is almost nothing good that can come from Teske getting the ball posted up 8-10 feet from the basket. He is not strong or coordinated enough to back somebody down with the ball, nor does he have any "crafty moves" like Davis displayed in the video above. Essentially, if Teske is getting a shot up from the post, it is going to be from where he gets the ball. He has to work harder and be more physical getting to his spot on the block.
It also contributes to the turnovers against doubles because a lot of times he is getting the ball in "no man's land" for his skill set, he has nothing productive to do with the ball. I think Teske should remain in the starting lineup and get the bulk of the minutes for continuity and rim protection, but I think 1) if he does not get good position he should be waived out to the elbow instead of given the ball with nothing good available and 2) Howard should work to get mismatches for both Livers and Wagner on the block instead of forcing token Teske post possessions.
February 14th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
Logged in to upvote. I am in complete agreement with Teske establishing post presence. He is tall but not really physically overpowering to get down low. So he is getting the ball too far out and settling for off balance hooks or difficulties passing out of doubles.
February 14th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^
you nailed it. i've been bitching about that all year. he needs to work to get 4-6 ft from the hoop and not 8-10; you know like the opposing centers have done to him much of the year.
like mccormick stated in the quote above, this team needs the november teske badly to make a deep tourny run. there is still plenty of time for him to right the ship.
February 14th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
I don't think Davis has the physical endurance to increase his minutes much. Hopefully the coaching staff can help Teske add something to his post moves for the final stretch of the season.
There's no way Livers comes back next year. Go get paid.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
And without Livers next year, who will do the shooting? As I understand it, even a the best-case scenario for Michigan recruiting-wise does not lead to more shooting on the team.
February 14th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^
Um have you heard of Isaiah Todd?
February 14th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^
Um have you heard of Isaiah Todd?
February 14th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
There's no way Livers comes back next year. Go get paid.
Um what? This has nothing to do with anything you said. Livers is not even showing up in most mocks as a 2nd round pick?! - and yet there is no way he is coming back. Strange logic
February 14th, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
Where was Poole on those lists this time last year?
February 14th, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^
I think Livers decision hinges on a lengthy post season run ... Without it, they’ll question his health. With it, he can demonstrate skills.
I am all for us making the Final Four, him riding off into the sunset in the NBA, and we retool the offense with a bunch of versatile freshman. You don’t need to rely so much on outside shooting when you have playmakers, of height and speed, at multiple positions.
February 14th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^
Poole is an interesting comparison.
- He was right to go, as he got drafted in the 1st round and (b/c of GSW having so many injuries is playing a ton of minutes)
- The draftniks were right that he is, at best, a 2nd round talent. He is putting up truly putrid numbers (29% from the field!). He's the perfect player to give minutes to when you're a team that's tanking.
So Livers will have to really think about if there's a team willing to take a flyer on him late in the first round -- I think there might be if he keeps shooting 45%-plus from 3; combine that with his pretty good athleticism and you've got a decent bench 3-and-D guy..
February 14th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
and livers is a team leader and seems to like it at UM (just my opinion)...much different than poole.
February 15th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
No, he has first round talent but is underperforming.
February 16th, 2020 at 2:13 AM ^
How is he underperforming? He’s the team’s leading scorer and best overall defender.
February 14th, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^
Indiana is a must win. If Michigan can’t win that game I don’t think they are making the tournament.
February 14th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^
Ty, you're stoopid
February 14th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
This might be pure conjecture, but it seems like Big Country benefits from a much lower center of gravity than what Teske has. Helps him get good position in the post and helps him stay balanced with his post moves.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
UMHoops had an excellent piece on Teske's recent slump that I highly recommend reading....especially if you're one of those people shouting "Start Austin Davis!" into the internet.
https://umhoops.com/2020/02/13/by-the-numbers-a-closer-look-at-jon-teskes-slump/
They go into stats, video analysis, situations, etc. Here's the intro:
Teske has been an excellent finisher throughout his career, and he was a good finisher during Michigan’s first 21 games this season. He shot 61% on twos last year and was shooting 61% on twos over the first 21 games this season.
Somehow, he’s shooting 29% around the basket over the last three games despite shooting 60% around the basket before this three-game stretch. That’s not just a product of facing cupcakes in non-conference play either, Teske was shooting 63% around the basket before his recent skid.
February 14th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
His confidence is in the tank.
For example, Teske did a perfect roll to the basket against Northwestern, got the pass right away with a direct open path to the rim and instead of taking two steps and slamming it, he took a short dribble to try and get closer -- like he's a little kid in a rec league who needs to get right under the basket before he shoots. That was crazy.
He ended up getting his dunk attempt partially blocked, as the D had time to recover b/c of his extra dribble.
Juwan's going to earn his money if he fixes Teske's confidence. The team needs it.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
The Northwestern b-ball jerseys remind me of Castlevania for N.E.S. for some reason...
February 14th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
I think people are overreacting with Teske. He’s in a bit of a slump and has had a little bad luck plus he faced really good post-up defenses in MSU and OSU per UMhoops. Keep feeding him and I bet water finds its level. He just needs to see a few go down and it should help a lot with his confidence.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:27 PM ^
Agree it will find its level but I also think that level is lower than we previously assumed.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Having Livers just makes all the pieces fit into their natural spots. Johns is a strong back-up forward for 20 minutes per game, Davis is a more-than-adequate back-up center for 12 minutes per game, our three 6-foot guards can share the two guard spots and play the hot hand without having to play at the same time, and you only have to play Castleton or Nunez in total desperation situations.
I also think there's a big advantage with Franz, even if his shooting still sucks. He's no longer being guarded by the other teams' best defender, he can stay at the 3 without having to match-up bigger guys, he doesn't have to guard the best wing, and he can come off the floor more when he's struggling because Livers/Johns can play.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
I’d reduce Teske’s minutes over the next 7 regular season games to give him some rest. I think he’s just tired. Then slowly ramp up those minutes back up so he’s at about 26 or 27 in post season play. He’s averaging 30 mpg in conference. It’s just too much.
You can steal a minute or two for Castleton when there’s a whistle 30 sec before a tv timeout. You can play Davis for 8 minutes or so. Then go small ball with Johns for 3 to 5 min.
February 14th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
What's disappointing is that Teske isn't remotely playing like the confident talented senior he is. He looks lost out there which is weird considering he was downright dominant at times earlier this season. I guess it's just the randomness of college athletes. I hope he gets back on track for many reasons, not the least of which is getting off the 8 seed line.
February 14th, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
I think part of the struggles for Teske comes from the team running faster sets. I'm sure you all remember Beilien's offense starting with Teske at the top of the key handing off to a guard to initiate the offense and then staying out by the three point line to initiate the pick and roll. That was a very slow initiation process and it allowed Teske to see what the defense was doing.
Now he has to run back and get into the set very quickly and he doesn't have much time to process how the defense is going to play him. I think it's one of the reasons he looks more clumsy than he has previous seasons. He's actually pretty coordinated, but I think he is uncomfortable with the speed he now has to process what is happening around him.
What I hope Howard and the other coaches can get instilled in him is, when in doubt go up towards the rim instead of falling away. It would increase his foul shots and put him in better position to rebound his misses.
BTW - given the other roster realities (short guards) I think Howard is correct in moving to a faster initiated offense. Slowing it down just for Teske would be more detrimental to the team.
For Teske's sake, I hope he becomes more comfortable reading the defense better/faster. If not, this is a pretty big weakness to expose to the NBA.
February 14th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Duncan Robinson's growth in the G League and the NBA has been amazing to see. His growth as a passer, slasher, and defensively has been great to see. By far the most impressive thing though is his ability to move off ball. His ability to stop full sprint off a cut or change direction, stop, balance, and nail a 3 is insane
February 14th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
I hope he puts on a show Saturday night.
February 14th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
I like this Duncan Robinson kid - we should start some more threads about him.
February 14th, 2020 at 5:04 PM ^
Let's start calling him "Admiral Fun Da Mental"
February 14th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Teske's in a slump and might be losing some confidence. But I think Howard needs to maintain confidence in him and hope he plays his way out of this slump. With his frame, he will always be a greater presence defensively than Davis. And we need them both to be performing well to advance in March. Personally, I think Teske will break out of this slump with time. He may not be the most naturally gifted low post scorer but he has shown great potential in the past.
I love them both and think they both contribute greatly in their own ways.
February 15th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
Classless fucking Tom Izzo....
am watching the MSU-Maryland game....
and I can read lips for the most part....
just before the 9:57 mark in first half, Izzo is caught on TV screaming at Tillman, on the sideline...
"You're so FUCKING STUPID!!" and then goes onto explain what happened.... anyone who DVRed it can see...its as clear as water...
I wish a reporter would run with this, and get momentum started.... Tillman seems a good guy, and I did not like that, at all....
Anyone who doesn't believe me, see for yourself, and post here and prove me wrong... but I'm not...
Izzo better hope that someone negatively recruiting him doesn't make a clip of it and distribute to future recruits....
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