austin davis is 2020 shaq

Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release, Guards, Wings

While we don't know precisely how the point guard and wing rotation is going to shake out, the center position is the spot with the most uncertainty on the roster after the departures of Jon Teske and Colin Castleton. Juwan Howard has three viable options at his disposal, a luxury in college basketball.

There's the hard-working redshirt senior known as Big Country, the athletic power forward slash small-ball center, and the talented freshman ent. I'm listing them below in order of projected minutes at any position, which puts the multi-position player out in front, but they all should be rotation players who get their chance to shine at one point or another.

#23 Brandon Johns Jr.

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'8/240
Key Counting Stats: 19.6 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 60%/35%/64% (2P/3P/FT)
Key Advanced Stats: 15.2% usage, 7.4 off. rebound%, 15.2 def. reb.%, 3.3 block%, 41.4 FTRate

Halfway through Brandon Johns' sophomore season, there were legitimate concerns about whether he'd stick in Michigan's rotation. He'd rebound and block shots, but his shot wasn't falling, his confidence waned, and he looked lost on the court. There were games when he seemingly wouldn't even look at the basket.

The proverbial light bulb came on in late January. Generally playing as the #4 offensive option, Johns still had up and down statistical performances, but there were a lot more ups and he continued to contribute when he wasn't scoring. He had some big games down the stretch:

• 14 points on 11 shooting possessions, five offensive rebounds vs. Penn State
• 16- and 20-point performances in back-to-back games against Nebraska and Rutgers, respectively
• 14 points, 3/3 three-pointers, five boards, a block, and a steal to win KenPom MVP against Indiana

His rough outing in his hometown of East Lansing was a personal low point. The return game against MSU in Ann Arbor provided some redemption—he had seven points on six shots, five rebounds, and two blocks in only 19 minutes.

[Hit THE JUMP for profiles on Johns, Hunter Dickinson, and Austin Davis.]

2/16/2020 – Michigan 89, Indiana 65 – 16-9, 7-7 Big Ten

Sports fans are prone to wild swings in mood, often with little justification. Everything that just happened will keep on happening, and this goes double when things are bad. Back when I ran the Blogpoll voters tended to overrate their own teams a hair when things were going well, but it was a dead certainty that they'd under-rank them significantly after a loss. Every voter, every time.

Lose painfully for a month and your perspective gets jaundiced. When Michigan played at Nebraska a few weeks ago they were down Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers. Then Franz Wagner got in foul trouble. Michigan spent a big chunk of the first half with Adrian Nunez and CJ Baird on the court. Our photoshopper-in-residence Abraham wondered on twitter why he was watching a random MAC game, and I laughed sardonically.

At some point in January I said I wanted to sim to the end of the season and get the Howard croots on campus. This season felt like a snakebit write-off: Livers couldn't stay on the court, the trident was haunted, Michigan would get a million good looks they miss while opponents poured in every variety of garbage known to man.

At the same time I tried to argue that Michigan's January was a massive statistical outlier that could not last, because Michigan was not the second-worst team in the country at all things from behind the three-point line. And lo:

Those five games are the five they've played in February.

Michigan is starting to look like Michigan again but the key is playing this way through March (and staying healthy) via @ethan_sears https://t.co/U1qQIU8WDS pic.twitter.com/2sqv103WZd

— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) February 17, 2020

The situation is now flipped. Michigan's probably ahead of its skis a little. But you've seen the shots. You've seen Michigan tee up open corner threes over and over again as the opponent issues a contested jack from NBA range. Reality is somewhere between 59 and 1. It's a lot closer to 1.

[After THE JUMP: The Mona Lisa of floor slaps]

Quantifying The Livers Impact

After Brian's attempt to excise the Isaiah Livers-less games from Michigan's tempo-free stats in yesterday's game column, I figured I'd go straight to the source. Bart Torvik was kind enough to take the time to pull the exact numbers and it turns out Brian's method was a pretty solid workaround:

based on this, michigan is equivalent to the #11 team in the country when they've had isaiah livers and the #33 team when he's been out, with a particularly big dropoff on defense https://t.co/xK0KsjHbmf

— Ace Anbender (@AceAnbender) February 13, 2020

It's not a surprise that Michigan is much better with Livers than without. I did raise my eyebrows when seeing that the bigger on/off impact is on defense, though it makes sense: Livers doesn't initiate a lot of offense (though he's obviously the team's best shooter), while he's the team's best and most versatile wing defender—he's the only player who can reliably switch 1-4 without creating a mismatch for the opponent.

Add this to the evidence that, health permitting, Michigan will be a dangerous team to face in the postseason. They're still projected as an eight-seed in the Bracket Matrix, though they've moved up to a seven-seed on a good number of brackets. With Livers, they're performing more like a three-seed.

[Hit THE JUMP for the big man comparison, Duncan Robinson's outrageous shooting, and the women's team facing more adversity.]