Basketbullets: Why We Talk About Franz
1/28/2020 – Michigan 79, Nebraska 68 – 12-8, 3-6 Big Ten
You may have noticed that these posts spend an inordinate amount of time talking about Franz Wagner. The slim sections of them not dedicated to complaining about cosmic shooting injustices often linger on Wagner: how is he feeling? How is he doing? Would he like some hot tea? Guten morgen Franz, would you like a newspaper? Newspapers used to be news, on paper, Franz. Yes I don't know why anyone would print that stuff out. I feel like we're losing the thread of the conversation.
Anyway: this game made the reason for this obsession clear. Minus Zavier Simpson, Michigan needed someone to generate shots. John Teske opted out after a little early success when Nebraska's oompa-loompa crew started doubling him; DDJ and Brooks chipped in here and there but Brooks only took two twos and DeJulius only hit one of his five. With Michigan stuck in its usual malaise from behind the arc someone was going to have to hit something on the interior.
That was Franz, who was 7/10 from two with an and-one and one dubious charge call suffered. Many of these were easy finishes:
Michigan | ATO Special
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 29, 2020
Really like this after timeout call from Howard to get a baseline runner a look from three or attacking a close-out.
Baseline runner --> Pin --> Hand-back --> Flare pic.twitter.com/ARokYtr4BS
And that's why we keep talking about Franz. DDJ's only make was a tough floater he took after driving baseline. When DDJ hits something the most common reaction is "wow," because everything DDJ hits is tough. Aside from the occasional cut that catches his defender on a screen, everything Brooks hits inside the line is tough. An earlier edition of this post asserted that Brooks should prefer long twos once he steps inside the line. QED.
Never say never but it is unlikely that either one is able to improve from their current 46% inside the line to anything near good. They're always going to be 5'11" guys who shoot layups on breakaways. Zavier Simpson did it; guys who improve like Simpson are rare. Call me when someone else under six feet tall develops a sky hook.
Wagner is nearly a foot taller than those guys and has crazy gumby arms, so when it goes right it leads to shots that should convert. He missed an early bunny against Illinois, causing everyone to go "argh." But to miss a bunny you've got to make a bunny. Franz creates bunnies. He's already shooting 58% from two despite looking like a stick insect. There's a path to high volume efficiency there that nobody else currently on the roster has except maybe Johns. Wagner is nearly two years younger than Johns and much more aggressive despite that gap.
Also Franz was 1/5 from three to pull his season average further under 30% and had six turnovers. It can be said that Franz saved Michigan's ass in a game where he had an 89 ORTG. This is the dichotomy of Franz. Dan Dakich exclaimed that "he's a pro" after one swooping layup, because he sure as hell looks like one 36.4% of the time.
The rest of the time… eh, not so much. Wagner is currently high on the list of deceptive highlight guys. You can put together reels in which he looks like a superstar. In fact someone did based on this game:
Franz Wagner
— Jonathan Götting (@j_goetting) January 29, 2020
Michigan G 6'8, 205
Wagner continues his strong stretch (18 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK), making an impact on both ends and leading the Wolverines to a crucial road win.@ProBBallCombine
pic.twitter.com/rqNxVyDF2V
This is not the reality of Wagner. But it—particularly the floater that is an entirely different kind of shot than floaters from Michigan guards—is why we keep talking about him. Brooks is going to be a version of Brooks down the road. DDJ is going to be a version of DDJ. Wagner could be anything.
[After THE JUMP: miscellania including a 353 ranking]
always flashes [Campredon]
Speaking of Johns. This was probably his best game at Michigan; last year against Indiana and the recent PSU game are the other contenders. 16 points on 9 shot equivalents plus 3 OREBs is tough to beat. Level of competition caveats apply most heavily for him against Nebraska's tiny lineup but it still seemed telling in the second half when Michigan repeatedly posted him up instead of Teske. At that point Teske was sitting on three shots total; seemed like Michigan got a little frustrated with his passivity.
Johns is still massively inconsistent and seems to have games that start poorly and go nowhere from there. He's coming off 18 minutes against Illinois in which he took one shot and had 3 rebounds. Remember when it felt like Moe Wagner hitting his first three was worth 10 points? Johns is like that but moreso. At the moment. It might not be a bad idea to involve him in some early post touches to see if he can get off on the right foot.
Crashing the glass. Michigan was far more aggressive about offensive rebounding in this game than they have been all season. That resulted in Michigan grabbing 30% of their misses. Six of the ten OREBs came from Johns and Wagner because the closest thing Nebraska has to a 4 is ThorThor.
off-guard point guard [Campredon]
Point guard preview. In Simpson's absence Michigan used Brooks as the primary initiator but not as a major shot creator. He took 10 of his 12 shots from outside the line and had four assists vs two TOs. I'd expect much the same next year, which will be fine if Michigan has a creator at shooting guard. Maybe a 6'4" guy with the ability to jump over small nations.
I mean. Since Nebraska is Nebraska Michigan's three point curse only bought them a 11-point loss, but the portion of this game that was tight was almost entirely because Nebraska shot 54% from three over the first ~30 minutes. Guys shooting 31 and 29 percent entering the game combined to go 8/12 on shots that were either contested or well behind the line.
Michigan shot 29% as a team; Nebraska shot 43%. Someone find the malevolent demon running this pocket dimension and offer him a sandwich.
Bajema's lack of PT is baffling [Campredon]
Exit Cole Bajema? Bajema did not get on the floor. Michigan preferred Adrien Nunez, who went 1/6 from three in 17 minutes and had a turnover that looked like an ordinary fan had been handed a basketball, and CJ Baird, who was one rebound away from an eight trillion. Nunez is now shooting 22% from three on 54 career attempts and does nothing else. Baird is a walk-on.
It rather boggles the mind to think about what must be going on in practice for a top 100 recruit to not even get a chance to prove he's better. This goes beyond "misses all his shots and is a bad defender," because Nunez also checks those boxes. Cole Bajema practices must start with Bajema driving to the basket and end with him re-entering the gym hours later covered in glowing green ooze, pursued by a gaggle of furious stop-motion animated animals. One time Bajema bent over to tie his shoe and ended up accidentally kidnapping the president of Uzbekistan. The last time he shot a three it bounced off the top of the backboard, rolled through the door and into the street (where it caused a five-car pileup), trundled across the golf course, and fell into a drain. And that's why the entire state flooded last Tuesday. Cole Bajema covered the only drain in the state with a basketball.
Anyway: the road back from not playing in this game is a tough one. This isn't a redshirt decision: Bajema played against MSU, well after the deadline to stop playing and claim an injury. This is Juwan Howard surveying a bench consisting of Bajema, Nunez, and no other scholarship guys 1-4 and giving him a DNP-CD.
The good news for Bajema is that Ibi Watson is shooting 57/45 as 18-2 Dayton's sixth man.
Castleton sighting. A lot of people are writing Colin Castleton off. This game provided a couple reasons not to: when faced with guys who weren't going to overpower him he had 5 points in four minutes here plus an impressive block. Another year of meat on him might allow him to extend that performance to other teams in the league.
One of this site's mantras is Never Give Up On A Big. Austin Davis is exceeding admittedly modest expectations; Castleton has a lot more upside and sticking with him is likely to pay off better than trying to find someone else at the 5 next year.
Nebrasketball is always good for names. Not so much the basketball but this year's edition features Thorir Thorbjarnson, Yvan Ouedraogo, Akol Arop, and Haanif Cheatham.
FWIW, Michigan's six blocks sent Nebraska down to 353rd (dead last) in opponent block rate. Next lowest high major is… Baylor? 17 and 1, headed for a one seed Baylor? Far out.
January 29th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
Ibi Watson, seems like he should be about an 8th year senior by now. You sure he doesn't play for Wisconsin or Purdue?
January 29th, 2020 at 3:55 PM ^
Watson was in the same recruiting class as Simpson, Teske, Davis. He still has 1 more year of eligibility
January 29th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
Nah, that's just what his doctored academic records say. In truth he enrolled as part of the Garde Thompson recruiting class.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
Continually playing Nunez over Bajema makes no sense. We know what we have in Nunez at this point. Occasional three, several bad shots, and porous defense.
I am seriously concerned at this point that Bajema will end up transferring (especially if we get Josh Christopher), and he will make Michigan/Howard look really dumb.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Said this to a buddy last night....Bajema will transfer to Gonzaga and end up averaging 20/night as a 5th year senior.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
There's a reason; we just don't know it. I thought he looked unhappy in every photo published of the team. He's a long way from home. Brian may be right.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
He might be injured, he might in Howard's doghouse, he might not be working in practice to earn a spot, etc. There are a million reasons and the reality is he isn't a good enough player to change the complexion of this season. If Simpson and Livers don't come back this team isn't going anywhere if they both are back neither him or Nunez are getting any meaningful playing time
January 29th, 2020 at 6:21 PM ^
I remember Wagner talking about what great friends he and his room mate Bajema immediately became. I thought that was great and would probably help keep Wagner around for a second year. (Back when some thought he might be a one and done.) Have to wonder if a possibly disgruntled Bajema would have on Wagner.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:20 PM ^
I'm surprised how noticeably bad Nunez is and continues to be. I wonder if there's some kind of beef between Juwan and Bajema and that's why his ass is glued to the bench. Reminds me of the days when Moe Wagner hardly ever got any minutes despite being better than whoever was out there (Doyle? Donnal? Beilfeldt?) because we thought he might be in Beilein's doghouse.
This was a positive game for this team though. It was a weak opponent, sure, but they played with a bit of focus and managed to control the game, something they haven't been able to do in several weeks. Let's pray they're pulling it together and they can steal a few good wins in the next two weeks.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^
Mo hardly played his RS freshman year because until late in the season he had no idea what to do on defense and was insanely foul-prone (7.3 fouls called per 40 minutes). The only beef was Beilein probably losing his mind 50 times a practice when Mo did the wrong thing.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
Ugh, I was doing fine during this article and then you dropped those Ibi Watson numbers. Fuck, man.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
Bajema must have already told Howard he is going in the portal after the season / semester ends.
January 29th, 2020 at 6:42 PM ^
Id be genuinely bummed. I loved that he stuck with us after Beilein left. And his stats are quite good in limited play, and also he doesn't seem moping on bench. And Bajema wants to play so unlikely he would say now he is transferring...and even in that ulikely event, JH still wants to win, and by playing Baird isn't the best way. My best guess is the Bajema gets torched on D in practice.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
I'm wondering if they really posted John's instead of Teske due to Big Sleep's passivity. Seemed to me if you are going to run a high/low, Teske is the better passer. Against a smaller lineup where Johns is not physically overmatched, this was a good time to try having Teske feed Johns in the post.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Teske was being extremely passive, he should have had 10 fga attempts in the first half alone with Nebraska's size and our outside shooting
January 29th, 2020 at 9:37 PM ^
He missed a bunch of bunnies early. Probably a good idea (in most circumstances) to start feeding your teammates who may be having a better shooting night. In retrospect, everyone continues to struggle, so maybe he should have just kept chucking.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^
I hate to dog on kids so personally, but Nunez looks worse on the floor than Izzo's kid. I haven't seen a kid so over matched since the Ellerbe era. Baird looked better last night than Nunez
January 29th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
Baird genuinely looks like a more fluid athlete than Nunez.
To put in the football recruiting parlance, if Nunez were a DB the scouts would be talking about how stiff his hips are. Which is also looks to be a problem with Castleton. Davis looks more comfortable running and moving side to side than him.
January 29th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
I suppose there are reasons that Nunez did not start on his high school team as a senior. We forget that he was offered by Beilein solely based on his going off from the 3 in prep school.
January 29th, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^
Which of the Wagner calls was worse? The charge taken by a moving, partially in the air, off balance guy or the technical that wasn't called by the ref right next to him?
January 29th, 2020 at 3:30 PM ^
idk what he said, but the technical was worse. Blocking calls look easier when you're checking the replay and have the right camera angle.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
I would agree, the ref right next to him didn't even blink.
January 29th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Can we not panic about Bajema yet?
We panic enough around here.
January 30th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
Have you watched Nunez play, Owen?!
If he's playing over anyone, there's reason aplenty to panic about that player!
His TO vs Neb would've looked turrrible in an IM game! He is not good at basketball...
January 30th, 2020 at 5:48 PM ^
Fair points. To me it’s just that Bajema is a stick thin late riser who was playing sub-IM level competition in high school.
I’m not going to worry if he’s not on the court in B1G games in January of his freshman year.
January 29th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
I think maybe my expectations for Franz were unfairly high....built pretty much on what I read on this site. Skewed also by what we got from Iggy. Franz is a real freshman in ways Iggy never was. He's gonna get a lot better.
Brooks....last year he reminded me of how I thought about MAAR early on. Like, what the hell man? This year a lot less of that, and next year I wonder if he'll be like senior MAAR. As in, man I'm glad this guy is on the team.
January 29th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
In MAAR's 19th game, and only 7th with 10+ minutes, he scored 18 points on 8/14 shooting @MSU. How were you anything but excited by him?
January 29th, 2020 at 5:03 PM ^
Yeah, he was a pretty consistent guy from the time he got minutes - which makes sense as he was old for his class (age 20 as a frosh IIRC).
MAAR was really an unsung key guy. Not a huge scorer but his points were consistently big. It seemed like whenever we were in a tough scoring drought, he'd take it hard to the rack to get us going again.
January 30th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
Have to agree. Brooks is not close to MAAR in his last 2 seasons, and even as a sophomore. Love Brooks' hustle, but he lacks quickness which kills his offense against good teams. MAAR was solid at everything and clutch.
January 30th, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
i ain't no scout, but i never understood the low rating he had coming out of high school. 6'4" guard, good athlete, scored a shit ton of points on successful teams (smaller schools tho). first time i saw him on the court, i thought he belonged.
January 29th, 2020 at 5:09 PM ^
I think we forget that Iggy was a 20 y/o freshman. Franz is 18, looks like he’s 15 and I’m pretty sure he’s not fully physically developed. I expect him to get a lot better.
January 29th, 2020 at 5:11 PM ^
And he missed a valuable month of developmental time in the fall with his broken wrist.
January 29th, 2020 at 8:05 PM ^
Brooks and MAAR do have a lot in common. Most notably, coaches sons from PA. I do hope that Brooks becomes a senior year two guard that can sparks some offense when the main guns are having off nights.
January 29th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
I would expect maybe a couple of transfers after this recruiting class settles in. Especially if they somehow land Josh Christopher. Right now, it doesn't look like there would be enough minutes for everyone.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:24 PM ^
I am as frustrated as anyone about Bajema not seeing the floor, especially in the short handed game last night. I can think of only 3 realistic reasons that he is not playing: (1) He just isn’t good enough, even walk on worthy (not likely). (2) Howard is trying to send him a message that he has other plans for his scholarship next year (highly unlikely). (3) Cole is struggling to handle the steep jump up to D1 level of play and Howard doesn’t want to throw him out there and get his confidence shattered (most likely).
I really like Bajema. He strikes me as high BB IQ and skilled and just needs time to adjust to this level of play. He is just the type of 4 year player that Michigan needs (like MAAR, Brooks, etc.) to blend with the one and done and 2 year players that Howard is going after. I hope to see him in a Michigan uniform, killing it as an upperclassmen.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:55 PM ^
I admit I didn't see the first 15 minutes but did see most the rest of the game. So, I'm not completely sure how Johns scored some of his points but I DID see 4 post possessions at the latter portion of the first half and maybe another in the 2nd half. They were all unsuccessful to straight up bad possessions. So, maybe he scored on some of those touches. But it seems most of the time he gets post touches it's a wasted possession. This goes back to previous games as well (though that charge against Minnesota is a thing so many other players just get the benefit on).
Long story short....post-touches to Johns <<< other ways to get him shots.
January 29th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
The Bajema part is vintage Brian. Huzzah!
January 29th, 2020 at 6:21 PM ^
Maybe Bajema is getting the Robbie Benson treatment to free up a scholarship? (see the movie One on One)
January 29th, 2020 at 9:58 PM ^
Annette O’Toole was quite alright in that!
January 29th, 2020 at 9:10 PM ^
Is the hot tea hot or cold?
January 30th, 2020 at 7:13 AM ^
Hypothesis: Brian said "far out" because he's been watching season 2 of Zumbo's Just Desserts.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
Speaking of Nunez. He reminds me a little of Poole in that they can get their shot off but I am now at that point where I expect it to miss. They shoot but deep down inside you know it's more than likely going to miss.
I have a little of the Stu Douglas vibe. Nice beautiful shot but for some reason it won't go in although Stu got better very late in his career. Some guys just can't make the shot the same way some guys can't close the sale.
January 30th, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
Huh?- Stu was a far better shooter from the get go.
Comments