Unverified Voracity Comes Before The Fall
Dantonio: "That was a long football game. I can't remember a lot of things. A lot going on."
— Chris Solari (@chrissolari) October 26, 2019
It's probably over. It's Michigan State week, and in 2019 that means surveying a program down the road that is finally reaping what it's sown. Years of operating in a virtually lawless environment caught up with MSU after their breakthrough recruiting class saw four players leave school for two different sexual assault incidents. That class is, or should be, this year's seniors. Their outcomes, in order of ranking: sexual assault, sexual assault, sexual assault, NFL, on roster, transfer, transfer, sexual assault, transfer, transfer, transfer, transfer, on roster, transfer, transfer, on roster, PEDs, on roster, on roster, kicker.
[After the JUMP: Jim Henson doesn't deserve this]
MSU set up Curtis Blackwell as the fall guy for three of the guys kicked out of school, which has landed them in court. Whether it's Blackwell or an athletic department seeing its football program suffer the consequences it should—finally!—when it is revealed to be disastrously amoral, recruiting has cratered. There was a remarkable moment in the Penn State game when the announcers said that KJ Hamler avoided Michigan State because people there were going the wrong direction, and it seems like that opinion is shared:
MSU's instate recruiting haul consists of the #17 and #21 guys, and that's it. They've had a half-dozen guys transfer in-season. Their starting MLB was suspended for PEDs. Their version of Shane Morris concussion-gate saw Brian Lewerke immediately throw a pick-six that would eventually lead to a loss against Illinois after leading 28-3. Their athletic director resigned instead of facing the Nassar-related fallout and his replacement is this guy:
the King of Queens guest star on the left
Bill Beekman just said Dantonio was under no threat whatsoever and he probably means it.
MSU may be the worst AD in the country but at least they're going to crash hard as a result.
Meanwhile, injuries. MSU has many:
- WR Darrell Stewart and OL Matt Allen missed the Illinois game and it doesn't really sound like either is likely to be back Saturday. Dantonio five days ago: “Darrell is out for a time period, should be back (this season) … Matt should be back probably a little earlier, but we’ll wait and see. I think we’ll get them both back."
- CB Josiah Scott and TE Matt Dotson both left the Illinois game and did not return. Dotson had a boot and crutches after returning to the sideline, so you'd have to assume he's a no-go.
- OL Luke Campbell didn't play thanks to an illness. You'd think that gets cleared up but apparently he'd only practiced once in the previous two weeks before Illinois.
- OL Cole Chewins, Kevin Jarvis, and Tyler Higby all missed the Illinois game. Jarvis has been out a while and his recovery timeline is right about now; Chewins has been out all year with back issues; Higby has missed the last two weeks with an undisclosed issue.
- Also MLB Joe Bachie is suspended for PED use.
- WR Jalen Nailor is out for the year; CJ Hayes almost missed the Illinois game.
MSU started two true freshmen on the OL and two at WR against the Illini. They're down to scraps on an already miserable offensive line.
I don't feel bad about MSU, but this is incredible content. I recently learned that the LSJ has put Graham Couch columns behind a hard paywall. Am I going to pay to read Graham Couch? Absolutely not.
Couch: The worse it gets for MSU, the more Dantonio has to stay https://t.co/gd5aMZpe0l
— Chris Solari (@chrissolari) November 10, 2019
Okay. Probably not.
Well done, Mr. Peters. Brandon Peters is taking Illinois to a bowl game, and executed some instant karma last weekend:
EAST LANSING, Mich. — Brandon Peters spent the bulk of four quarters Saturday hearing noise nearly every time he came off the field. Noise from Michigan State’s defense, but also from fans in the Spartan Stadium stands behind the Illinois sideline.
“The whole game,” Peters said Saturday night. “I had people behind me calling me a Michigan reject.”
After roughly 59 minutes and 50 seconds of this, Peters — a fourth-year former Michigan quarterback who joined Illinois as a graduate transfer this spring — took a shotgun snap from the MSU 5-yard line. He rolled hard to his right, bought just enough time with his legs and eventually found an open Daniel Barker in the back of the end zone to complete a 25-point comeback, the largest in Illini history.
Once the play was over, Peters made his way back to the Illinois sideline and looked up at those same stands. He didn’t hear a word.
“They got what they deserved,” Peters said with a grin.
So that's Peters, who has a Michigan degree, getting called a Michigan reject by a bunch of literal Michigan rejects, and then dunking on them with a last-second W. May all of Michigan's transfers do as much for the cause.
A dollar says that there aren't any Illinois sites dumping on Brandon Peters for being a "big mistake" this week.
Learn about the pick and roll. Watching these plays happen nearly consecutively was an educational experience, and now it's more so since Eric Shapiro helpfully breaks it down:
How Matt Coleman (and his ball screen passing) led Texas to a road win at Purdue: pic.twitter.com/jtrmRqN1KI
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) November 10, 2019
Purdue ended up losing a tight game to Texas but looked a lot more comfortable in a post-Carsen-Edwards environment than I thought they would. They'll be all right, shouldn't drop too far.
This week in Kick Rutgers Out. Probably an all-time record for a conference game?
Ohio State favored by 50.5 against Rutgers, the total is 55 https://t.co/zuMYTLMoVd
— Bill Landis (@BillLandis25) November 10, 2019
Etc.: 2001 Nick Zabaneh has decommitted from hockey. He was likely to get deferred and can probably find a landing spot that will take him for 2020. MSU's Super Bowl. Please leave "little sister" for the MSU frat bros.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
That OSU/Rutgers line and over/under are absolutely incredible.
Take them at face-value, and the expected final score is 53-2!
November 11th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Let's see...OSU fumbles on the first snap of the game and manages to bat the ball out the back of the end zone. From there onward, their drives go: TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, FG, TD, with a two point conversion at the end as a little extra fuck-you. Rutgers never advances past the 50.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
with a two point conversion at the end as a little extra fuck-you.
OSU ran a onsides kick last weekend up 14-0... so why the fuck not? Go for two!
/s
November 11th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
Because they wouldn’t let me go for three.
November 11th, 2019 at 7:25 PM ^
is that true? What a bunch of c*cksuckers. . .
November 11th, 2019 at 8:50 PM ^
When Day was asked about in the presser, he said Maryland didn't cover it so we ran it.
10 minutes into the game and up 14-0. Seesh.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^
Ryan Day acknowledged (in an ESPN article that surveyed coaches about the CFP) that the committee considers style points when evaluating teams. You have to believe that he is keeping the gas to the floor to keep the committees attention. He doesn’t want to be on the outside looking in if they lose a game, like Urban.
November 12th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
Yeah I don't blame them. It's not like it was 10 minutes left and up 60. You can be up 14 and still lose, RIGHT MSU??????????
November 12th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
Onsides kicks are recovered on average 15 percent of the time. Chances are you're giving the ball to the other side at midfield.
That's a stupid way to legitimize a dick move -- even by Sparty standards.
November 13th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
Yeah except Day specifically mentioned they noticed how wide open it was and knew it would work. Don't call me a sparty, you douche.
November 13th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
I didn't call you a Sparty... You brought up "RIGHT MSU"... so I was saying even by losing a game a la "Sparty No" standards... going for an onsides kick 10 minutes into a game is still a dick move.
Reading is fundamental. Try it some time. Douche.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:35 PM ^
My guess is that they are so filled with spittle-flecked rage at yet another punt from a Rutgers team that clearly wants nothing more than the game to end that Fields is directed to casually walk the ball through the back of the end zone in order to kick it back to their pathetic offense.
November 12th, 2019 at 12:52 AM ^
That's possible! Ohio State already has trailed a game 2-0 this season (Miami University).
Miami scored next too! 5-0 Redhawks.
Then the Buckeyes scored 11 touchdowns.. 76-5 Final.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
If I was a betting man (I'm not), I'd put money on OSU to cover that spread. I think that game ends up something like 63-0 or 70-3, or some such score.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
They have 50 by halftime! Betting this is one of those 78-0 games. 56-0 at half likely and that is with the dogs called off.
I'm guessing the starters play a half just to keep ready for psu.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
Agreed, especially since it's at Rutgers. In these blowout games where the visitors are the far better team, the chances for an epic blowout are greater than if the better team is at home.
There are limits on how many players can travel, so you can only go so far into your bench
November 12th, 2019 at 12:42 AM ^
I don’t think it’s impossible that we see triple digits honestly
November 12th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Yeah that seems really low to me. Plus we have the Rutgerd (record and Rutg...nevermind) of 78-0, so I'm sure they're interested in outdoing that.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
A more intriguing line would've been OSU -49.5 leading to 52-3, which is an extremely possible final score
November 11th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^
I’m surprised the line isn’t bigger. There is nothing stopping OSU from putting up 100 in this game. It’ll be at least 49-0 by halftime. Final score: 87-7. OSU trots out the training/medical staff for the last kickoff and they pin Rutgers inside the 15. If the Big Ten is merciful, they should use a running clock after the first quarter.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
I always try to come before I fall too
November 11th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Why exactly was the thread about Brian Lewerke's concussion removed on Saturday?
November 11th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
Protocol.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
Seems like questioning the lack of concern from Sparty coaches is valid.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
When did this happen? I was not fully aware of it.
November 11th, 2019 at 7:51 PM ^
"That's BS."
Mork
November 11th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
So here is what I don’t understand. MSU was down to scraps on offense with so many players out, and they racked up over 500 yards vs Illinois. I’ll probably be beating the drum solo this week but I still think they are dangerous when they put it all together. Which thankfully hasn’t been often. Still, they didn’t look like a complete moribund offense in that game.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^
Same here. They don’t seem as inept on offense as they did last year. Although, they had trouble scoring in the second half. Could only muster 6 points. MSU also has over 400 yards vs ASU but still found a way to lose.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
Illinois' defense is decidedly average at best and horribly undisciplined, but yes MSU's offense can put up yards and cause some problems.
They will scheme up some stuff that works. Getting the LBs and Safeties flowing the wrong way, reverses and fake dive-pitch plays. Metellus and Hawkins need to be the safety (haha) blanket on the back end and not let MSU get a numbers advantage. Stopping them in the redzone (if/when they get there) will also go a long way to deflating MSU's chances. Moreover, the defense doesn't need to get cute and go exotic with their formations. Don't let Lewerke get loose and he'll feel the pressure real quick.
It's their last big game of the year. Could be the last one of Dantonio's tenure. Don't take the bait and get stupid PF flags that give MSU any free yards because if they get 1 or 2 free first downs, they'll throw the kitchen sink of a double reverse pass or something. If they get momentum it will be a problem. Stifle them early and they'll crack.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
I did notice that Illinois seemed to be having a lot of problems in the first half. Looked like a lot of blown assignments.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
Illinois was also down several of their best defensive players and lost another linebacker in the first quarter because he punched a guy in the dick/taint area and was caught.
November 13th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
+1 for use of “dick/taint area”
November 11th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Seth pointed this out on FFFF back when we played Illinois. They are very bad against the run, they can't hold the edge and MSU may have exploited that? (did not watch the game) but MSU racked up just shy of 300 yards rushing and 3 of their 4 TDs came from the ground which is more than what they scored all of October. Again i did not watch the game so I can't tell you if they attached the edge but my guess is with that many yards and touchdowns the answer would be yes.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
I didn't watch too much of the game but on the podcast Brian stated MSU has an arc read they run with Leweke. He ran 11 times for 96 yards. So Illinois did not hold up well on the outside.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
i noticed that, too...i wonder if dantonio pulled out some of the 'michigan only' stuff a week early, given their complete ineptitude over the previous weeks?
November 11th, 2019 at 3:43 PM ^
Wasn't Illinois down 3 linebackers?
I know one of their guys got hurt or something and then one was ejected for punching.
They were having issues defending the run before these guys were out.
Btw: hopefully they try to run to the edge against Cam. I see it going as well as Notre Dame
November 11th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
Illinois really doesn't do defense, especially if it requires discipline.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:29 PM ^
And especially if it's on the road.
November 11th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
I watched very little of this game. In fact, I pretty much only watched Illinois' last two sets of downs to win the game. The earlier couple plays I did watch when MSU had the ball, Illinois' pursuit and tackling was hilarious, three stooges-level stuff. I watched, on multiple plays, Illinois defenders take themselves or their teammates out from plays, which ended up giving State an extra 6-12 yards each time. Illinois was also missing their starting MLB who is fairly good, FWIW.
That's what is so funny about this MSU loss: Illinois played terribly. Their post game win expectancy was 14%. They did almost everything wrong, and still completed the largest comeback in school history. This game was literally just Michigan State saying, "no, please, we insist, pull our pants down."
November 11th, 2019 at 4:33 PM ^
What was their post game win exp against Wisconsin? My guess is just as low or lower. Not often a team wins two games in a season in which their performance was only good enough to win about 1 in 7 times each.
They probably are close to leading the country in actual wins vs expected.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^
Actually post-game win expectancy against Wisconsin was 46%. They played a much better football game that day.
November 11th, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^
Huh, that surprises me given Jonathon Taylor had a first down in Illinois red zone up 9 with like 7 minutes to go and had a 98% chance to win at that point when he coughed up the ball to give Illinois a chance. And Wisconsin outgained them by a lot.
I wonder if those win probabilities take turnovers as given instead of factoring the probability of them happening in the first place.
November 11th, 2019 at 7:28 PM ^
I wonder if those win probabilities take turnovers as given instead of factoring the probability of them happening in the first place.
I think that is how it works, yes. Not sure, but I believe so.
November 11th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
I think you're underestimating just how bad Illinois' defense is, especially on the road, but yeah, even knowing that, I was a little surprised that MSU gained yards so easily.
I don't think this is as bad as Bobby Williams team that Michigan beat 49-3 or whatever. Some people seem to be that confident.
They have a punchers chance if a ton of things go right for them. But this is probably more lopsided on paper than the 2016, especially since it's at home.
November 11th, 2019 at 5:34 PM ^
I agree. Although we deserve to be the favorite, MSU can beat us if we make a few key mistakes.
I won't feel fully comfortable until our fans are singing "hey hey hey goodbye" to Dantonio in the 4th Quarter while up several scores...encouraging his pride to stay on this falling team next year.
November 12th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
B1G refs will still be officiating this game. msu literally has nothing else to play for, either. So yeah. This is in no way, shape or form a done deal.
November 11th, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
As others have mentioned, the Illini Defense was down their top 2 DEs and 2 of 3 LBs by early in Q1. A team without depth of talent like Illinois can ill-afford that (pun intended). Keep that in mind when watching the game highlights showing Lewerke with all day in the pocket or Collins running through gaping holes.
Also the Illinois defense is awful vs. the run this year. They are allowing an average of 249 rushing ypg in B1G play including 332 to Minnesota and 363 to Nebraska. (M put up 295 vs. their full strength D compared to 275 last week by MSU.)
None of this is to say that we won’t get a hard-fought effort from Sparty this week.......I just thought it was worth pointing out that MSU’s offensive “explosion” last week came against a heavily depleted Illinois Defense and net achieved 35 more total yards at home than Michigan did on the road in a display that many here thought was “shameful” or “uninspired”.
November 11th, 2019 at 6:53 PM ^
Good post, but I don't see any pun. Can you explain it?
November 12th, 2019 at 4:57 PM ^
I-L-L...
November 11th, 2019 at 5:55 PM ^
Somewhat dangerous, yes. But it's worth pointing out how much Illinois tried like hell not to complete that comeback (pickoff in the red zone, fumbled snap on the 1, needing seven plays to score from first and goal) and still succeeded.
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