I think Bamba would be such a difference maker defensively that he would be able to play 20 minutes a game, with Wagner getting the other 20 at the 5 and another 8 or so at the 4 playing big ball, with Wilson playing the other 32 minutes at the 4. Beilein loves to bench players who pick up early fouls, so there would be nights Bamba plays 10 minutes and nights he plays 30 with Wagner getting 2 in the first half.
Hard to rank those 4 freshman (+ Teske) in playing time, but my sense is that while the winner of the center battle is the safest choice, our lack of iso and pick and roll scoring on the perimeter with Walton and Irvin graduating will mean that we need 5 scoring threats to open up big enough lanes for the tiny Simpson and MAAR to get buckets, which means Wilson at the 5 and a healthy amount of Livers or Matthews at the 4 depending on whichever one can best managet to both hit a corner 3 (presumably Livers) and move their feet and not get lost on D (presumably Matthews).
I do think we're going to have a hard time generating offense next year due to the lack of penetration. At gunpoint I'd set the over/unders next year if both Wilson and Wagner come back as being a dissapointing 18th on O but a better than average for us 60th on D, which is basically what Notre Dame did this year. Notre Dame, Butler and Michigan all seem to have great Os and mediocre to bad Ds every year due to coaching and recruiting. Lots of shooters, not enough athleticism and very good perimeter players that end up playing in the NBA (Grant, Jackson, Burke, Stauskas, Hayward, Mack all come to mind).
I still don't really understand why the best rim-running DeAndre Jordan/Tyson Chandler style bigs aren't desperately sought by these schools. Someone like Jordan Bell or a Varnado style shotblocker who can catch lobs and finish at the rim would help these schools a ton defensively without too badly hurting the O.
It's probably a big higher in that Speight has to represent an above average quarterback for receivers on the list, even at great schools like that, just from having played well last year and being under Harbaugh.
That's it. If Dakari Johnson (or Randle) gets in foul trouble, or Dakari proves a liability at defending the P+R, he will sit and Poythress will come in for him.
At that point, Morgan can guard Randle. Otherwise, Morgan can't, and he is the only guy we have who can do it.
Randle is a nightmare matchup for us with McGary out. We'd be better off against Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart or any of the other lottery picks.
there's a hidden upside; Spik will still be a senior and can compete/mentor/be insurance for our next freshman PG, who can then start as a sophomore.
Whereas if Walton goes pro after his junior year, Spike will have graduated (unless Spike redshirts before his Senior year, which rarely happens but is actually a decent idea), and we'll go into the next season with nothing but a freshman PG there.
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I think Bamba would be such a difference maker defensively that he would be able to play 20 minutes a game, with Wagner getting the other 20 at the 5 and another 8 or so at the 4 playing big ball, with Wilson playing the other 32 minutes at the 4. Beilein loves to bench players who pick up early fouls, so there would be nights Bamba plays 10 minutes and nights he plays 30 with Wagner getting 2 in the first half.
Hard to rank those 4 freshman (+ Teske) in playing time, but my sense is that while the winner of the center battle is the safest choice, our lack of iso and pick and roll scoring on the perimeter with Walton and Irvin graduating will mean that we need 5 scoring threats to open up big enough lanes for the tiny Simpson and MAAR to get buckets, which means Wilson at the 5 and a healthy amount of Livers or Matthews at the 4 depending on whichever one can best managet to both hit a corner 3 (presumably Livers) and move their feet and not get lost on D (presumably Matthews).
I do think we're going to have a hard time generating offense next year due to the lack of penetration. At gunpoint I'd set the over/unders next year if both Wilson and Wagner come back as being a dissapointing 18th on O but a better than average for us 60th on D, which is basically what Notre Dame did this year. Notre Dame, Butler and Michigan all seem to have great Os and mediocre to bad Ds every year due to coaching and recruiting. Lots of shooters, not enough athleticism and very good perimeter players that end up playing in the NBA (Grant, Jackson, Burke, Stauskas, Hayward, Mack all come to mind).
I still don't really understand why the best rim-running DeAndre Jordan/Tyson Chandler style bigs aren't desperately sought by these schools. Someone like Jordan Bell or a Varnado style shotblocker who can catch lobs and finish at the rim would help these schools a ton defensively without too badly hurting the O.
It's probably a big higher in that Speight has to represent an above average quarterback for receivers on the list, even at great schools like that, just from having played well last year and being under Harbaugh.
That's it. If Dakari Johnson (or Randle) gets in foul trouble, or Dakari proves a liability at defending the P+R, he will sit and Poythress will come in for him.
At that point, Morgan can guard Randle. Otherwise, Morgan can't, and he is the only guy we have who can do it.
Randle is a nightmare matchup for us with McGary out. We'd be better off against Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart or any of the other lottery picks.
there's a hidden upside; Spik will still be a senior and can compete/mentor/be insurance for our next freshman PG, who can then start as a sophomore.
Whereas if Walton goes pro after his junior year, Spike will have graduated (unless Spike redshirts before his Senior year, which rarely happens but is actually a decent idea), and we'll go into the next season with nothing but a freshman PG there.