Who Would be Your 4th Playoff Team Today?
With a top 3 well set btw Oregon, Bama, and FSU the big question tonight is slot #4. Last week I thought based on "that week's" action (TCU with a smacking of top 10 KSU more impressive than Bama barely beating top 20 LSU) TCU would take the 4th spot rather than just moving Bama up from 5th to 4th as 99% of AP voters would do. And the playoff committee did indeed do that.
This week is even more tricky. TCU did not look great "this week" vs Kansas while Miss State originally looked bad vs Bama but ended up coming back nicely in the 2nd half to make it a 1 score game. On the road. So my Magic 8 ball has Miss State as the #4 team. What say you?
(And they might move Bama ahead of 0 loss FSU to the #2 spot?)
Sagarin data:
- Miss State - Sagarin rank 8. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 1-1. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 4-1. Only loss by a few to Bama. SOS = 32
- TCU - Sagarin rank 7. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 1-1. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 3-1. Only loss by a few to Baylor. SOS = 38
In a way it might be a moot point because TCU is out of chances for quality wins whereas Miss State has 1 more quality win to be had if they can beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. And without Treadwell Ole Miss looks in trouble. That will push their SOS up and their top 30 record to 5-1. The wildcard being that the committe is supposed to reward "conference champions". (Which could still be Baylor or TCU) But for this specific week it will be interesting what they decide.
Other contender for slot 4 is Baylor but they have less "quality wins" than Miss State or TCU so right now would be in slot #6 I believe.
- Sagarin rank 4. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 2-0. Record vs Sagarin top 30: 2-1. Only loss to West Virginia. SOS = 55.
Before you ask OSU is not a contender due to BIG TEEEEEN scheduling (no crossover with Nebraska or Wisconsin and UM/PSU hot garbage) and their OOC. Record vs Sagarin top 10: 0-0 Record vs Sagarin top 30: 1-0. Plus a bad loss. All they will have at end of year is 2 quality wins if they best Wisconsin in the title game.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
I am not using it as an end all be all. I am using it as a system many know and is relatively sensible with the caveats you will find in any system. It helps to display strength of schedule and when one team has played 6 top 30 Sagarin teams and another has played 2, it shows you the difference in schedule even if you may believe one of those teams should be ranked #35 rather than #27.
You act as if there are an array of superpowers ranked at #31-#40 and using "wins vs top 30 teams by some crazy Sagarin" as an out of the box methodology. Using Sagarin top 35 or AP top 25+ those receiving votes - whatever you prefer to find "quality wins". The committee has deemed a lot of quality wins as something that seems important.
Aside from the Pac 12 south and SEC West almost every team has an issue of not playing much of anyone outside of their best 2 teams on their schedule - there are alot of mediocre conferences and teams.
I think the Pac 12 is pretty good and have been saying it is the 2nd best division in all of college football for the better part of a month in multiple comments here but all the SEC has done is win almost in every OOC matchup, esp the West teams and not just cupcakes. Now take a team like USC which is helping to make the Pac 12 south look good - they lost to Boston College which is a middle of the pack ACC team.
You sound either angry or agitated today. It's just a theoretical conversation with no right answer - or should we talk about Frank Clark, why Hoke stinks, why our program sucks, or Jim Harbaugh for the 95th thread? Its another point of discussion for some of us who actually follow the broader football world and want to talk about football and not recylce the same 5 topics.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
It just seems like you're over-relying on Sagarin top 30. As I said, it's silly to use one system as the sole basis of quality wins. I also find it a little silly to draw an arbitrary point in the rankings as being a quality win. And, no, there aren't a bunch of super-powers in Sagarin #30-40, but can you tell me that wins over Stanford, Arizona and Texas are really that much worse than wins over Missouri, Tennessee, Clemson, and Georgia Tech from your hypothetical 2-loss Georgia team? The former are all between 30 and 40 and the latter are all between 20 and 30. Maybe in a sport like basketball where teams play upwards of 40 games, it's ok to be a bit arbitrary, but with so few games in football it just removes necessary data points.
The more logical way to measure quality wins is to rank the wins for each team as you see them, and then compare the lists. If you want to bring in a few different rankings systems at that point to help you judge who has higher quality, that's reasonable if not necessary.
For my take, I'd line up hypothetical UCLA's wins over Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, and USC against any one-loss team out there aside from Alabama. Can we honestly say that Ohio State's is better with Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota (?) and Maryland(??). Or that TCU's is better with Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Minnesota? Maybe Baylor's is better with TCU, Kansas State, and Oklahoma.
The way things are lining up, I think the playoffs are likely to be Alabama, Florida State, one Big 12 team (likely Baylor), and a Pac 12 team (likely Oregon). Obviously this can all change.
For the record, I like talking about this a lot more than those other stuff you mentioned. Not angry or agitated at all. Just like a good debate.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^
With ASU losing last week Oregon is the only Pac 12 team with a legit chance - just like OSU is the only one from the Big 10. No 2 loss team is getting in at this point unless a slew of upsets happen in the coming weeks. Y
You basically would eject Oregon from the top 4 and move everyone else up 1 slot. So TCU gets in with FSU, Bama, Miss State at that point assuming all others hold form. If Miss State loses to Ole Miss along with the Oregon loss you might have a 2 Big 12 team playoff with TCU and Baylor.
If you are Ohio State you want Florida to upset FSU, Ole Miss to upset Miss State and Oregon to lose to the Pac 12 south winner. That's the only road I see for them to get in.
November 18th, 2014 at 9:59 AM ^
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November 18th, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
Does it really matter who is the 4th team right now? I think at the end of the day, with no further upsets, Mississippi State gets left out for Baylor. I also think that Mississippi State's resume isn't going to be so noticeably stronger than a one-loss TCU or even a one-loss Ohio State that the committee would leave out a conference champion in favor of a second SEC team. Politically, the far easier move is to give another conference champion a shot.
Mississippi State is honestly the SEC's worst shot at a second team. They played nobody in the non-conference schedule and drew the two worst SEC-East teams. The only thing propping them up is the idea that the SEC West is so great. However, A&M just lost at home to Missouri. LSU lost to Arkansas. And Auburn got crushed by a so-so Georgia team. Those are Mississipp State's "big wins." If the committee does their job, they'll ignore the fact that the pollsters rushed to judgment and declared all three to be top-5 teams at some point this season.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
I hate the SEC worse than anybody, but to say the SEC West is not head shoulders above other conferences (certainly including the SEC East) this year is just not being realistic. Arkansas is the worst team in that group and they nearly beat Bama. LSU, which is next to last, might be favored on a neutral field against projected Big Five champs Ohio State and FSU. That group is just unbelievably deep.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^
Yet Auburn just got crushed by Georgia,Texas A&M lost at home to Missouri, and LSU got shut out by Arkansas. I think it's the best division in football, but a lot of the basis for them being head and shoulders above the rest of football lived on teams like A&M and LSU being massively overrated.
The other basis are some non-conference wins that do, on the surface, look fairly good. Auburn and LSU both managed to pull out wins that they had no right winning. I'm also not sure LSU beats Wisconsin today with a slightly more competent QB and a healthy Gordon. Alabama got by an ok West Virginia team. But that's really it. Ole Miss beat a not so great Boise State team deep in SEC territory. Arkansas beat an awful Big 12 team. I'm hard pressed to say that those games make the SEC west "head and shoulders" better than everyone else. I'll grant that it's the best division in college football, I'm just not sure it's that much better.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:07 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^
The whole point of the playoff was to give undefeated teams a shot. I have Marshall at 4 if they remain undefeated.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^
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November 18th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
2-loss SEC teams will get in long before Marshall sniffs a spot. They'll get a nice NYD bowl and get clubbed by whoever in the SEC finishes in the #7-10 range in the final poll. Probably an Auburn or a Georgia or something
November 18th, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^
I'm all for the ESPN doomsday scenario where all the SEC teams somehow end up with 2-3 losses each. I would love to see what the committee would do then...
Say if Mizzou or Georgia somehow knock off the SEC West Winner (who would have 2 losses if Bama loses to Auburn and MSU loses to Ole Miss)
Then Mizzou/Georgia would have won the SEC as a 2 loss team who clearly wouldn't make it into the top 4 (Pretty sure they wouldn't at least).
The whole year so far the motto has been 2 losses and you're out. Well, if no team from the SEC West (heralded as the best division in the nation) even wins the conference (with 2-3 losses each) what happens?
Would love to see that scenario play out.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^
Whatever speeds up the 8 team playoffs. 5 Conference champs + 3 Bids. Leaves room for the Boises and Marshalls of the world while allowing for all the conferences to get equal representation. Of course this is too much common sense for the creators of the bowl system.
November 18th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^
With only 4 teams, still way too much impact of media and regional bias. Power 5 - win your conference and get in. Everyone else schedules and plays for the extra 3 spots. Then it can be settled on the field at the end of the season.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:39 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^
Isn't the committee supposed to pick the 4 best teams to play in the playoff? So if all we are doing is looking at SOS, quality wins, Quality losses.... then why not just have the computers pick it?
If you look at the fact that OSU was breaking in a new QB, who happens to be playing like a heisman contender at this point, I would argue that they look way better than FSU right now. I wish someone would have the balls to say 1. Bama, 2. Ore, 3. TCU 4. OSU
They look like the best 4 teams to me right now.. with maybe only MSU having an argument to get in there.. but we know they are not number 1.. the other three might be but since the SEC won't play anyone OOC, its tough to tell where to slot them.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
What are you talking about?
Alabama beat WVU on a neutral field. Auburn beat Kansas St at Kansas St. LSU beat Wisky on a neutral field. Georgia is going to play Georgia Tech, who might be in the ACC title game. Georgia beat Clemson. Florida is going to play FSU. Tennessee played Oklahoma. Ol' Miss played Boise St. South Carolina is going to play Clemson. Arkansas crushed Texas Tech at Texas Tech.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^
I cannot fathom OSU having only one loss at this point in the season if they played Mississippi State's schedule.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
I pick Michigan. They would totally score lots of points and be flashy. Oh crap, Hoke said we're not that team.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
You say they have less quality wins than MSU and TCU but Baylor is 2-0 against teams in the Sagarin Top 10 while MSU and TCU are 1-1.
If you move down to the Top 30, then yeah they do have less wins. However, Baylor still has KSU on the schedule so should Baylor win out, they would have the same amount of wins vs Top 30 teams as TCU.
November 18th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^
Personally, my top 4 right now would be Bama, Oregon, Miss State, and FSU. I'm even hesitant to put in FSU over TCU or Baylor at this point. Florida State is undefeated, but they just look terrible in the first half of games. Its like the team is forgetting its playing a football game, and then it just wakes up and is able to out-talent the other team. I do give them credit for not folding under pressure, but come on: with the way they've been playing against teams that are far inferior competition to them, who honestly believes they wouldn't get destroyed by a team like Bama at this point?
I don't know, maybe FSU would rise to the occasion, but I just don't see it right now.
At the end of the day, as long as OSU is left out, I don't really care who plays for it all.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^
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November 18th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
Men, maybe Mississippi State, but in the end it's going to be Baylor. Baylor will pass TCU because Baylor is going to be the Big 12 champ. Are you taking Ohio State over the Big 12 champ? No.
November 18th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
I think there might be pressure to avoid 2 teams from the same conference. If you have a 1-loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion, it's going to be hard to justify putting a Miss St team in that probably won't even win their division
November 18th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
For the moment, the top ten by overall rating at Massey in order:
1) Alabama
2) Oregon
3) Baylor
4) Mississippi State
5) Mississippi
6) Florida State
7) Georgia
8) TCU
9) Auburn
10) Ohio State
It seems that the realistic pool among these teams for the 4th spot has to be Mississippi State, Baylor and TCU. For different reasons in each case, I could see them depending on what random metric one chooses to emphasize.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
.... michigan?
November 18th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
... that it helps the big 10 much. It helps OSU and Urban, but the big 10 is really terrible, and it will take more than one good to great team to change that perception.
November 18th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
...after losing AT Bama, in close fashion. Right?
November 18th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
I wouldn't vote for FSU as they enable criminal behavior which is far worse than any NCAA violation.
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November 18th, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^
All of this discussion highlights the need to expand to an 8 team playoff. Your 5 conference champions + 3 at-large bids determined by the committee. This leaves room for second SEC or PAC-12 teams as well as, say, Marshall.
November 18th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 2:54 PM ^
November 18th, 2014 at 2:50 PM ^
to LSU will keep them behind both SEC West teams Alabama/Miss State.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
1) Alabama loses to Auburn 2) Miss. St. loses to Ole Miss giving everyone in the SEC West 2 losses. Whoever goes to the title game (I think Ole Miss) then loses to Missouri or Georgia.
FSU, Oregon and Baylor win out and are in, and the committee has to decide to pick 11-1 ohio or SEC East team that just won the conference title or an SEC West team with at least 2 loses.
Delicious ....
Go Blue!
November 18th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
My fourth team would be Baylor because Baylor is entertaining to watch. If I never watch two SEC teams play in a national championship game again, it will be too soon.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
they are a very good team. Until Ole Miss beats them they should be #4 imo.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^
Bama, FSU, Oregon, Mississippi State
November 18th, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
I really hope the committee adheres to their stated preferece for conference champions and competitive non-conferece scheduling.
On paper, Baylor/TCU and Miss St. are close, yet Miss St played 4 tomato cans OOC, and probably won't even play in their conference championship game.
A tournament with half the teams from the same conferece proves nothing.
'bama
Oregon
FSU
TCU/Baylor
Next in line - OSU, assuming they win out.
November 18th, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^
Sagarin's numbers look odd. How is Miss State's SOS that high? They have played nobody besides Bama that has lived up to hype. Auburn isn't great. LSU and Texas A&M were overrated to begin with and shouldn't be ranked (think A&M still is).
Miss State's best wins are against a 3 loss Auburn team and 4 loss LSU and Texas A&M teams. Plus brutally bad OOC schedule.
TCU's best wins are against 2 loss K. State, 3 loss Oklahoma and 3 loss Minny (OOC) and a 4 loss WVU team. They at least played Minny OOC.
Losses are comparable. I'd give the slight nod to TCU based on their current resume.
OSU's best wins are against 2 loss MSU, 3 loss Minny and um, thats it. They have the worst loss of the bunch.
November 18th, 2014 at 4:40 PM ^
Miss. St., but just barely, due to the quality loss factor.
Both TCU and Miss. State beat a bunch of "top 10" teams who now sit at 2 or 3 losses. At this point, K-State is arguably a better win, but then again Auburn beat K-State, and MIss. State beat Auburn. I don't think wins can meaningfully distinguish them.
Miss. State looks to be the better overall bet from the longer view, assuming they beat Ole Miss. TCU has a crap schedule left. And Baylor has a better claim to that final spot, if both teams win out.
November 18th, 2014 at 5:12 PM ^
Will be:
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. FSU
4. Miss St.
If you pay close attention you'll notice they always keep the SEC teams on opposite sides of the bracket.
November 18th, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
Keeping SEC teams on the opposite sides of the bracket is not a bad thing. It means that if two (or one, for that matter) SEC teams wind up in the finals, they earned it, winning games on neutral field against top competition. This is a sharp departure from the 2011, when two SEC teams played for a title without having to even play top teams from other conferences.