Who's Watched Texas Tech Play? Thoughts?
As the title says, I'd like anyone who has watched Texas Tech play recently to clue the rest of us in. I seem to recall them as being similar to Florida State, ie, they have some tall individuals you have to fight through. Anyone want to share anything they noticed watching them play?
I've studied their metrics a bit and watched some of their games and here are my thoughts (in addition to some above):
DEFENSE
Their defense is very good by the numbers. I'm actually a bit surprised about that though. They help on drives aggressively so they give up a TON of threes. I think they got a bit lucky that teams only shot 30% against them because from what I saw in their Kansas game, they gave up a lot of open ones.
Michigan should get plenty of good looks from three and could bomb them out of the gym like Texas A&M last year.
They are excellent defending twos with two imposing shot blockers and the aggressive help. Iggy has to be mindful of this and be careful when driving. If ever there was a time to figure out how to drive and kick, this would be the game to do it. Although, they do foul a lot while aggressively contesting shots. It's possible Iggy does what he does against Maryland and puts Michigan in the bonus ten minutes into the game. His success against their defense will go a long way towards this being an easy win or a nail-biter.
It will be interesting to see if they switch ball screens and attempt the MSU approach. Tariq Owens is long and athletic enough to stay with Simpson if they do switch. Whether they have the discipline to not give him help and stay on shooters (the way MSU trusted Tillman) will determine their effectiveness if they try to switch.
They did bust out a zone against Kansas for some possessions so that could be a wild card.
OFFENSE
Culver is the only guy that can create. They do run some pick and rolls with him and have some shooters that can spread the floor. We will have to tag the roller and hope the ball handler can't find the corner guys open (the way Winston does so well). Culver's ability to find those guys or get around the hedge and go all the way to the hole himself should be their only chances to make much happen on offense.
They could struggle mightily on that end if he can't.
I can't see Michigan losing this game unless they have a horrible shooting night. Certainly possible, but I feel better about this one after doing some research. I would feel very comfortable betting Michigan at -2.
I haven't seen them play but I noticed somthing about their end of year 10-game win streak (followed their rough patch from mid Jan-2/2 where most of their losses happened) that was strangely snapped by WVU of all teams int he B12 tourney.
during that 10 game end of seasons win streak, they jacked up the most 3s/game and the hit the best %s of the whole year. M can prevent that very well and can defend one man on and off the ball with CM - so their lottery pick guy will likely not be as efficient as normal.
M has a better shot than most are thinking and could win with a decent margin - 6-10pts perhaps
KSU grad here. They are a good team but good defense can shut them down. I believe KSU held them to low 50’s and it was an ugly game but exactly how they wanted it to go. Hit open 3’s and play solid D and I see UM coming out on top here. I actually think they should handle them comfortably unless shots just aren’t falling. That means UM will prob get blown out as I am usually wrong with this sort of thing.
Found this video while lurking on the Texas Tech 247 board. Really cool breakdown of both defenses which aren't all that similar. Sorry for not knowing how to embed...
Tech denying and collapsing in the paint is interesting. This seems like a scary proposition for us. Guys like Matthews and Brazdeikis finding a seam only to be swarmed sounds like a recipe for turnovers. On the other hand, lots of collapsing feels like it might give our shooters the space needed to make it a good shooting night for Michigan.
On the other end, I watched the Buffalo game. Hard to pull anything given a one-game sample size against a MAC team, but they did seem to stall a lot. Culver has been the leading scorer in 26 of their 34 games. Moretti led them 6 times. Mooney & Francis once a piece. Unlike Michigan, they have a clear and defined primary scorer in Culver. Mr. Matthews, how are you feeling?
As much as I've seen (not much) and read (little more) of Tech, it sounds like it's like looking into a mirror. Both teams are fantastic defensively, but I think if Iggy and Poole can be on from 3, and if Teske doesn't get into foul trouble early, Michigan has a great chance of winning. I'm expecting some mini heart attacks, but I'll say:
TTU - 58
Good Guys - 67
Go Blue!!
March 27th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
Their offense is usually worse than ours.
March 27th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
I don't know a ton about TT's offense (outside of what we all know just by reading some quick summaries), but their defense is going to be problematic because it's more of a system and less of a "my guy will beat your guy" type approach that Michigan uses.
Brian linked a video on Twitter that broke it down really well, but the basic summary is TT won't let you get into the middle of the court. Their on-ball defensive alignment when the pass is caught is almost parallel to the sideline, forcing opponents to drive to the baseline, away from the basket. That takes away the need for help defenders in the middle of the court, which eliminates the need of defensive rotations and having to close out on shooters 10+ feet away from them. They don't let the P&R happen towards the middle of the court. Instead, the on-ball defender hedges so hard that they basically force the PG to drive away from the pick or go away from the basket to utilize the screen in the first place. It's kind of weird to see how turned the defenders are, but it works really well when combined with their shot blockers and general athleticism.
I tend to prefer offensive/defensive systems that don't require your players to beat opponents 1 on 1 over and over again. Much like football, Michigan's defense was great when all 3 CBs could match their WR counterparts. But when Watson couldn't quite keep up with OSU's 3rd WR, there was no system or scheme that could help him out by covering up his weaknesses. In Michigan basketball's case, they rely heavily on Simpson, Matthews, and Teske being able to handle their opponents without a lot of help and maybe Teske on the back end to erase mistakes/shortcomings. If there is an offensive system (like MSU) that can attack the other 2 players on the court/Simpson or Matthews or Teske aren't going to win their match ups consistently, then I get worried. TT might not have the offense to score a bunch on Michigan, but they have a defensive approach that can hold Michigan down and keep it close.
March 27th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Good post. Brian's video that you mentioned is the video I linked 3 posts up if anybody wants to check it out. Really well done.
March 27th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Ah, good job linking it. I wrote most of that on the train ride into work and hit send later on without seeing yours.
That's not how MSU system works though. They're not winning by attacking Poole and Iggy directly.
They win by attacking Simpson and Teske with the pick and roll and Winston + Tillman is a very rare combo that can attack Simpson and Teske and win. So then Michigan does have to help off the other guys. And those other guys can make shots.
Simple as that: Winston + Tillman pick and roll offense is slightly better than Teske + Simpson pick and roll defense.
They win by attacking Simpson and Teske with the pick and roll and Winston + Tillman is a very rare combo that can attack Simpson and Teske and win.
Right. This is my Watson comparison. OSU had a rare 3rd WR who was just plain better than Watson. Not many teams in the country ran A+ athletes 3 deep at WR, but when Michigan ran THE one, their response was... keep doing what we do and die by hellfire. Didn't try Thomas. Didn't try zone (well they did, but had clearly never practiced it and biffed on the 1st play for a TD).
Sometimes the other team just has better players, or at least players who can win more often than they lose in 1 on 1 (or 2 on 2 in this case) match ups. The response "well they're just better than us, guess we'll just keep running our stuff and hope they trip or something" isn't what coaches are paid for. Beilein and Yak are very good coaches. They have been out coached 3 straight times in the 2nd halves of MSU games. You could argue Izzo isn't making adjustments at all, Winston and Tillman are just slightly better than Simpson and Teske. In which case, why are there coaches at all? (sarcasm)
Winston + Tillman pick and roll offense is slightly better than Teske + Simpson pick and roll defense.
Then make an adjustment. Clemson's OL isn't better than Alabama's DL, but their coach found a way for them to be more successful than anyone else in the country has been against them in... 5 years?
March 27th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
They looked pretty sharp against Buffalo but I couldn't tell if that was because Buffalo was a bit overrated. They also seemed exhausted and it seemed like Tech was playing uncharacteristically well on offense.
Defensively, Tech looked VERY well-organized. No one got caught out of position and they helped very well and they go up hard to block shots (let's get some Matthews pump fakes and Simpson hooks). Offensively they seemed to hit every shot and I imagine this meant they were unusually hot and unlikely to replicate such a performance again. It also seemed like Buffalo hadn't faced anyone that good all year and weren't ready. I think Michigan's defense will be better and Beilein will get them ready. Still going to be a tough game though.
That's the only time I saw them play so it's not really worth a damn.
Edit: hmm, missed someone else posting the link to the defensive breakdown video.
I think with a week to prepare Beilein will scheme something up to deal with the strange force everything to the baseline/sideline defense.
Saw them play WVU twice. Once they killed them and once WVU put it on them. WVU was bad, bad this year, so I'm not super impressed. Super small sample size obviously.
I do think their offense is a more stagnant version of ours if Culver isn't creating. I have faith that Matthews will limit his effectiveness.
As always, we make shots, we win. Otherwise it's a rock fight toss up.
They are as good a defense in the nation as anyone, but their offense can and does get bogged down against teams that don't turn the ball over and can body them up a bit. Culver is a high-usage guy who is a monster defender and a top athlete, but he barely cracked 100 in-conference offensively, so if you force him to beat you it might work. Moretti can shoot but his role is really limited and doesn't seem to be a huge playmaker with the ball in his hand; witness the fact he hits 90% of his FTs and hasn't taken 100 all year.
This game will be a slog but other than the time they exploded against Kansas TT usually chugs along under a ppp against good defenses but that works when you don't let the opponent score either. I feel like if Iggy or Poole can get into a groove that will put TT in a bad spot because they don't want to get into a track meet.
Yeah, Poole letting Moretti go super-McQuaid all over us is my biggest worry. Everything else lines up nicely for us and then you just hope we don't have a Villanova style shot accuracy disparity.
like most here are saying...Charles is going to limit Culver, and we have better talent up and down BUT if Iggy and/or Poole dont at least kinda show up we wont win.
One of them needs to do their thing, if its both, BLOUSES
It’s easy. Just shoot like they did in the first half of A&M last year. Watching it now, B60 on Big Ten Network. Very pretty to watch. Just shoot like this game, we will be fine.