Where is the Speed In Space?

Submitted by 303john on September 10th, 2019 at 9:52 AM

Asking for a friend. Seriously.

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Football

NeverPunt

September 10th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^

Wish points were working so I could meaningfully neg you.

Come to think of it, points quit working around here last week and then the points quit being scored on the field. Screw the Pitbull curse - its the points, OP - maybe that should be your next post.

Joined: 03/26/2019

MGoPoints: 41222

JMo

September 10th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^

So the question is.... do we want to trade points, for not having the every three reply ad-embedded comments section.  I don't mind the side bar ads, and understand a "free" website isn't free.  But those inline embedded ads have been getting really annoying lately, and I haven't missed them over the past week.

That timeline is also basically the same as the appearance of Pitbull in the header. 

The intrigue only grows.

Joined: 12/14/2011

MGoPoints: 21029

Sten Carlson

September 10th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^

It’s not only lazy, Bronx, it’s pathetic “no ... I’m the most BPONE!” bullshit and dire prognostication run amok.  

Adversity!  Let’s see how they handle it.  Just because the new offense isn’t a well-oiled machine after two weeks of “live fire” doesn’t mean that Harbaugh took the keys back, nor that Gattis is overrated, nor that Harbaugh is an idiot ... blah blah blah.  

If Michigan were 2-0 with 56-7 and 62-0 wins and looked elite doing it, the board would be just as full with the “pump the brakes” mafia proclaiming we don’t know anything yet.  Well, one thing we DO know, despite the BPONE bullshit, is that these kids never quit.  They gutted out a win when everyone, including most in here, probably said, “we’re going to lose.”  It was ugly, but they snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat with a timely defensive play.  

Guys go berserk second-guessing plays and strategy, but it worked.  Almost not working isn’t a valid criticism — it’s a real time decision that accomplished the goal — win the game.  Argue all you want, but that is the goal and it was accomplished.

Now the fun part starts ... solve the problems.  That’s was this game is all about.  

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: -56

ST3

September 10th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^

#SlomkaInSpace >#SpeedInSpace

Imagine running Slomka behind Bredeson, Ruiz, and Onwenu. Has any team ever won a National Championship gaining 4 yards per carry on EVERY single attempt?

Joined: 09/11/2010

MGoPoints: 52559

Marvin

September 10th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^

Versions of all of these comments have been made ad infinitum over the past few days:

 

Why do LSU and Maryland have speed in space and we don't? 

Did Harbaugh take over the playcalling in the second half? That's dumb!

Is Shea injured? He must be! Otherwise why didn't he run the ball? 

This team will never beat OSU!

Why don't we just run Ben Mason like last year in short yardage? I am frustrated!

If Shea is injured, why didn't Dylan play? I am frustrated by this!

Why didn't the refs call illegal motion more often on Army? They were moving before every snap!

If we have NFL caliber wide receivers, why are we not throwing to them more often?

 

 

 

Joined: 08/17/2010

MGoPoints: 4214

JFW

September 10th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^

Just for fun....

I looked at Michigans S&P offense, FEI offense, and F+ combined ratings since '05. I got all my stuff from here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/2018

Michigan has never had a lights out offense. But I don't see a super strong correlation to a lights out offense and winning. Their seems to be a stronger correlation to F+ ranking and winning. 

(I know, the math people are saying 'DUH!')

So where am I going with this? 

A) Man, our bowl record is grim. 

B) The RR/Hoke years were painful to re-live, even just looking at raw numbers.

C) (here is my hawt take). Maybe *speed in space*/'modern' vs. 'archaic'/ doesn't matter as much as we think by the eye test. And maybe that gives us a decent hope for the season. 

If UM can clean up the bull$hit on offense that have nothing to do with scheme (fumbles, offsides, missed catches) even if Gattis' offense isn't all that it's cracked up to be we can still be a formidable team. 

This won't make the Spread Zealots happy; I get the idea that an efficient offense that passes more but still isn't Oklahoma will seem a waste of talent to them. But it gives the rest of us (well, me)  a realistic hope that the season can still be alot of fun if we can just clean up the sloppy crap, instead of hoping for an offensive explosion* to save us. Wisci will be a great test. 

 

* I'd be happy with an offensive explosion so long as the D doesn't implode. It just seems like 'cleaning up bad execution' is the low hanging fruit. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

BlueSCar

September 10th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^

That's actually pretty interesting. At first, I was dismissive of the notion that the offense doesn't need to be lights out, but after playing around with the SP+ data some, you see several examples of teams being fully mediocre on one side of the ball and being in the playoff discussion.

Looking at SP+ offense and defensive rankings from the 2017 season, each of the four playoff teams were solid at best on at least one side of the ball.

Source: https://collegefootballdata.com/sp

Clemson's offense was nothing special while Oklahoma's defense was thoroughly mediocre. The thing that concerns me is that each of those teams was still elite on one side of the ball. You can point to ND last year as a team that wasn't really special on either side of the ball, but ND is sort of a special case. At any rate, it's hard to see our D being elite enough this year to carry the O to the CFP.

One other thing, as mediocre as Clemson's offense was that year, it's still always been a tier above our own in the Harbaugh era.

Source: https://collegefootballdata.com/sp/trends

So, it may be too early in the season to write us off with regards to any of our goals, but it definitely looks like we're going to need to offense to not only bounce back but actually take a small leap from previous years to actually contend. Is it possible? Maybe? Joe Moorhead's offense certainly bounced back his first year at Penn State in 2016 after starting off sluggish. Hopefully Gattis can replicate that.

Joined: 09/06/2009

MGoPoints: 337

JFW

September 10th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^

very valid point. 

Where I'm coming from might help claify things:

Right now, with transition costs and general execution sucking; I'm hoping that we just get a 'competent to good' offense. If the Defense can hang tough that gives us a realistic chance against MSU and OSU. It doesn't necessarily make us competitors in the playoffs (maybe we get there if we have no other losses and with luck, but I don't see us going beyond the 1st round). 

If we can't even manage that much and our offense is as or a bit more productive as last year, but much more likely to shoot us in the foot with turnovers, penalties, and miscues, then I think we're looking at an 8-4 7-5 season. 

A big thing for me would be to pull up our pants and STAY THE COURSE. I don't think last years offense was as bad as people make it out. I think constantly d*cking around with our offense does us little to no good. 

So, if we want to be a spread team, then lets be a spread team for the next four years, and let our program mature into it and get progressively better at it. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

BlueSCar

September 10th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^

Can't really disagree with any of that. If we can get that 'competent to good' offense, then I could definitely see us hanging with MSU/OSU. It's hard to make judgments since the sample size for the season is so small. I just keep going back to PSU in 2016 where they struggled with Pitt and then got blown out by us, but then rebounded and ended up as B1G Champs. Wishful thinking? Sure, but there's no reason we can't have a similar turn around.

And I agree about the offense last year. I think what was so frustrating was not that the offense was "bad" but that there was so much potential on that side of the ball and it felt very underutilized. And maybe we don't need to set the bar this year at a playoff berth. I'm sure most here would be satisfied with merely beating OSU.

Joined: 09/06/2009

MGoPoints: 337

BlueGill

September 10th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^

Previously noted twitter arguments between Gattis and Lockesley (?) has more meat to it than what everyone inferred. Maryland is doing well with the actual practitioner of speedinspace and the pupil realizing that what you see/learn is totally different than actually doing it.

Joined: 09/27/2016

MGoPoints: 215

JMac

September 10th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^

We missed on some potentially huge scoring plays. Shea overthrew both Nico and Bell. Both would of been touchdowns.  I would of given those types of big plays many more opportunities to connect.  Army's secondary was holding on more than we do so the chance for an interference call would of been greater as well. You have to take more shots down field.

Joined: 08/20/2008

MGoPoints: 316

BlueGill

September 10th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^

#speedinspace has been amazing and real.

You just need to look at all the space remaining inside an old phone booth with about 20 Army defenders crammed in. Now think about how fast you can move in there...I would say definitely about 0.8c not quite 0.99c.

Joined: 09/27/2016

MGoPoints: 215