What are your real expectations if we got Harbaugh

Submitted by poseidon7902 on

Reading some of the posts/threads on here I've come to the conclusion that some on here may be putting too much emphasis on the ability of Harbaugh.  I don't question he's the top choice at the moment, but some have almost deified him.  The last thing I want to see is a broken fan base in 3 years because Harbaugh didn't get the ship righted in the righ amount of time.  That being said, lelt's play the hypothetical game.  We sign Harbaugh Jan 4 to a 5 year deal worth base salary of 5 million a year.  What's your expectation?  

 

Me personally, I feel like we may be in another position similar to Hoke's first year.  Not quite the same, but similar.  a well returned team with some adversity under their belt.  I would expect an initial boom of production, a 9 win season.  Then a fall off for the next 3 years averaging 7-8 wins a season.  It wouldn't be till his 5th season that things really start coming together.  

 

I could be wrong and he shows up on campus, 10 5 star recruits decommit elsewhere and commit to UM and we win the NC in year 2.  I just want to keep my expectations realistic no matter what coach we get.  

Jason80

November 25th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^

As a Niners fan the only reason I hope/want Jim out of San Fran is because I believe that he may come to Michigan. I haven't heard anything significant to squash the rumors of him leaving, most importantly he is nearing the lame duck year on his contract. Baalke is the business guy that gets along better with the Yorks and I'm sure Jed thinks this is his Carmen Policy, the key figure to running the business of the Niners including a great new venue as well as assembling a competitive team. Jim may win with what he is given but he didn't build the stadium or build the team.

saveferris

November 25th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^

Maybe we can replace "Harbaugh" with "Incoming New Coach".  Regardless of who we get, the expectations for improvement should be the same, no?  I mean, if we really have a roster full of under-developed talent that is just waiting for somebody more competent to mold it into something great, then it shouldn't matter who the coach is.  If we don't believe that the guy replacing Hoke can do that job better than Hoke, then why replace him?

You Only Live Twice

November 25th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^

under developed talent, another YES.  Two words on that:  Devin Funchess.  As just one example.  When the hell did that happen anyway?  Did he really start phoning it in after the ND game, as has been mentioned, or was he starting the trend last year?

gustave ferbert

November 25th, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^

and Steve Mariucci.  It was supposed to be the perfect fit, he's from Michigan.  BFF's with Izzo, how could he not come and save the franchise.  

 

. . .So he comes. . . 

 

the rest is history

 

Now I dont' think harbaugh would be such an abject failure.  But the desire for him is so one sided.  I can just see how this comes back and bites us in the ass somehow.

With that being said, I do want Harbaugh here in the worst way.  But I am getting alarmed, especially now that we are offering money to charity to get him to come be the coach. . .

saveferris

November 25th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^

I would expect an initial boom of production, a 9 win season. Then a fall off for the next 3 years averaging 7-8 wins a season. It wouldn't be till his 5th season that things really start coming together
I'm curious as to the rationale behind that statement. It's not like an incoming Jim Harbaugh would be faced with a complete talent void (barring massive player attrition). The one thing most of us can agree upon with regards to things Hoke has done well is that he's replenished the roster and restored depth to most of the position groups and that these recruits for the most part come pretty highly regarded. So either Hoke and company have done a subpar job of developing the players they've recruited or they've whiffed on a bunch of 4 and 5 stars. The latter seems less likely. So Harbaugh inherits a cupboard that appears pretty full, but we still have to wait 5 years before we're really competitive again? In this conference? I'm sorry, but I don't buy that we're THAT broken. I don't expect a Jim Harbaugh to come in next season to take us to 12-0 right off the bat, but he's not also walking into the same situation he was at Stanford either. I expect a 9 win season next year and it would be nice to have that include a win over a rival. I expect 10 wins or more the following year and that we're in competition for a trip to Indy and maybe even in the playoff discussion. This is where we thought Hoke would have us with these players back when we first signed them.

Red is Blue

November 25th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

 

So either Hoke and company have done a subpar job of developing the players they've recruited or they've whiffed on a bunch of 4 and 5 stars.

 

I'm not sure those are the only two explanations.  It could be that they've appropriately evaluated and developed the individual talent, but they didn't do a good job of diversifying skill sets or evaluating how the individuals would fit together as a team.  For example, if you prioritize size (which it seems like this staff does), that could come at the expense of speed.  If you take the biggest four star at every position, you'd have a good recruiting class, but might have limitied play-making ability.  If lack of talent diversification is part of the problem, that doesn't get fixed overnight.

O Fo Sho

November 25th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^

There is no reason for a fall off.  The fall off was in large part due to Rich Rod not recruiting the O and D lines effectively.  If there is one thing that Hoke and Co have done is recruit.  We have a lot of depth in most position groups.  The key to Harbaugh will be to develope a QB out of Malzone, Speitght or Morris. 

Bo4President

November 25th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^

Expectations I would have to disagree with the decline record with Mr Khakis. History and his stops in college ball shows he kept winning. I know he had Luck but unlike Coach hoke he showed decline. Jimmy is a winner.

aiglick

November 25th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^

I truly don't have enough information. If he were to pick a really good staff the sky's the limit. He would bing an attitude that losing is not ok and that is something I think is lacking. When you say something like wins are just a statistic you are getting that from somewhere and I do believe this coaching staff is laid back. No, I don't have access to practice but we do see what happens in games.

This staff is ethical as far as I can tell which is good but that is a necessary not sufficient condition of being the coaches here. You've got to win or at least show the promise for future seasons. Another major benefit of Harbaugh would be he would instantly reenergize this fan base and get recruits excited about Michigan again.

Multiple candidates exist but none are uniquely positioned like Harbaugh to get this program first regionally and then nationally respectable. I don't care if he only stays five years as long as he leaves the program in a good place and in capable hands.

Amaizing Blue

November 25th, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^

Jim isn't perfect, injuries happen, and luck/breaks play into any particular game or season.  So I wouldn't expect him to win a National Championship EVERY year, would be happy with 2 out of every 3 for the next 15 years.  

I think we would be relevant again with him as the coach.  We would contend with some regularity for Big Ten titles, and at least be in contention for the playoff 1 out of 4-5 years.  I know we would look like a real football team again, and player development and talent maximization would be drastically better.  (By "Real" football team, I mean one that is physical, competitive, and tough-minded, not referring to any particular scheme or style.)

Yostbound and Down

November 25th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

8-4 or 9-3 in the first year with a competitive team in each game, a win over one of Sparty or Ohio (hopefully both) and a trip to a decent bowl.

And at least that level going forward, along with a Big Ten championship in the first four years. Our future schedules are not as tough in terms of non-conference compared to many teams. We start playing Wisconsin in 2016 which will be a tougher game across division than we are used to. For the love of all things sacred, Hackett or whoever is the AD, go back to staggering the MSU and Ohio games. I'd rather withdraw from the Big Ten than have it set up the way it is now.

No off field bullshit either and graduate as many seniors as possible (a bright spot for Hoke).

Quail2theVict0r

November 25th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^

Not bad football. That's my expectation. I can handle 8/9 win seasons if we are s good team just getting beat by better ones. I can't stand watching garbage football. A good example is lloyds 7-5 season. It was bad, but the team was competitive. Nothing in comparison to rich Rods 7-5 year or either of the past 2 under Hoke.

Yostbound and Down

November 25th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^

Lloyd gets torched on here sometimes for those mediocre seasons but yeah, I'd take that instead of having the game over by halftime. Even the third Rich Rod year, 2010, was just awful in that respect. Blown out against OSU, pretty much against MSU also and then the bowl game was just a shitshow.

2007 was the only really awful Lloyd year in that respect, with obviously the Horror and Oregon, and then Wisconsin really wasn't that close either. He had a couple really bad losses in the past (Iowa one year I remember was particularly a drubbing) but most of the time you always thought the team was in it. Hoke's first two years here were actually pretty similar, he was competitive aside from Alabama and then the Nebraska game when Denard was hurt.

 

carolina blue

November 25th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^

8-9 wins next year with one or both of osu and msu a win. then solidly 9 wins each year, 10 wins more often than not. osu game should be for division most, if not every, year

Steve in PA

November 25th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^

 

  • Have 11 players on the field for every play
  • Wear a headset 
  • Be fully aware all the time
  • Speak about performance on the field in games rather than great practices
  • Incremental improvements in the team week-to-week
  • Hold the players accountable. Seniors don't play because they are seniors and "deserve" to play.  The best players for the team on the field at all times.

Bonus

  • Beat Sparty next year and not apologize like McFly
  • Make the OSU game competitive every year unless Michigan is blowing Them out

Red is Blue

November 25th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^

I couldn't care less whether he has nine on the field, takes a nap in his office, doesn't wear a headset, bow tie or pants for that matter and only talks about practice as long as we're winning.  It ought to be about the results, not how he gets there.

allintime23

November 25th, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^

We would win ten games and possibly beat MSU and OSU. State especially if cook leaves, and he'd be crazy not to. The set up next year would be a nice one and I think he would take advantage of it.

MaizieGoBlue

November 25th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^

I expect someone who earns his salary by being a bigger part of Michigan football than handshakes and clapping. In a word, a leader. Winning records and championships will be a product of real leadership paired with the prestige of Michigan.

lbpeley

November 25th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^

Win most of the "toss-ups".

Win a lot of the games we "shouldn't" win. Although in theory there shouldn't be many games we "shouldn't" win.

Unsalted

November 25th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

There is no magic, just hard work and talent. With JH there is no reason to believe we will not be a top contender every year. JH knows what it takes to win and be successful.

westwardwolverine

November 25th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^

Again, assuming our last three recruiting classs aren't total busts, there should be a very solid roster in there for the right coach to mold into a winner. 

Harbaugh has won everywhere he's went. He's as proven a coach as you can find. I think even if we had mediocre QB play, there is a run game in there (unlike last year, the running game actually seems to be improving, though we'll find out for sure against OSU) and our defense should finally take a real step toward being elite. 

Our Big Ten schedules sees our two most difficult games at home. I think 9-3 with a split between Sparty/OSU is the floor for next year assuming Harbaugh comes and is able to bring a staff of his choosing.

If Hoke is retained, probably 6-6.

CompleteLunacy

November 25th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^

After 7 years of floundering, I'm not going to place much level of expectation on the next coach...I just want the team to compete and to not wilt under pressure. I want the coach to really light a fire under the teams butts, because they need a jolt. Wake them up. I'm not sure what that means in terms of wins...but no more blowouts to rivals, no more disappointing home losses.

Above all else, I want to actually ENJOY watching them play. And there's been exactly one game this year where that was true...the App State game. That's just sad.

bigfan2959

November 25th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^

I would expect Harbaugh to make a pretty big difference right out of  the gate, but I would not expect 11-1 next season.  9 -3 sounds about right, possibly only 8 -4.  Year 3 I would expect us to be great year in and year out.  I would expect two seasons that still might be a little rough. 

It's worth noting if we get Harbaugh that we will have a big hole in our recruiting classes in 2015.  This will affect the team several years down the road.  I would think great coaching and a stellar class in 2016 would partially or mostly offset the hole in 2015, but we won't be able to afford a second straight below par class, which I fully would expect this will be if we get Harbaugh.  He will not have enough time to really salvage what was already going to be a small class.

beedub93

November 25th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^

MSU and osu. I expect that he'd never apologize to any rival, and I expect (hope?) that he'd get under the skin of dantonio and eyer. I hope he would have a similar relationship with those two like the one he had with Pete Carroll.

Bb011

November 25th, 2014 at 11:07 AM ^

I would expect 8 wins his first season and at least 8 wins every year thereafter. Obviously he gets some time to really develop a dominant team, but by year 4 we should at least be competing at an elite level.

maize-blue

November 25th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^

Harbaugh is 43-15 in his 4th year at San Fran. and has made the playoffs in each of the previous three seasons. He's a good NFL coach and I think has proven he can get it done at that level. If the 49ers get rid of him, they're dumb. If he wants to leave, he'll have his choice of any NFL vacancy. I think the Harbaugh to Michigan move would be epic and the best college hire in the past 10 years or more??? IDK, I just think it's going to be hard to pull him from the NFL.