Weekend Betting - Week 12
Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games. I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):
(Last week record: 4-4 ; Overall season record: 39-42-3)
Saturday games:
TCU at Texas Tech, Noon: Texas Tech +3
Troy at Texas St, 3pm: Texas St +7
West Virginia at Kansas St, 3:30pm: West Virginia +14
Georgia at Auburn, 3:30pm: Auburn +3
Central Michigan at Ball St, 3:30pm : Over 60.5
Minnesota at Iowa , 4pm: Iowa -3
Stanford at Washington St, 4:30pm: Washington St -10.5
Cincinnati at South Florida ,7pm, South Florida +14
Notable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a 14 point favorite over Michigan St. Over/Under 45
Ohio St currently sits a a 53 point favorite over Rutgers (at Rutgers)
Oklahoma currently sits as a 10 point favorite over Baylor (at Baylor)
Georgia currently sits as a 3 point favorite over Auburn (at Auburn)
Iowa currently sits as a 3 point favorite over Minnesota (at Iowa)
Notre Dame currently sits as a 7.5 point favorite over Navy (at Notre Dame)
Other lines:
November 15th, 2019 at 10:31 PM ^
How is Rutgers going to stop OSU from scoring 70? And how is Rutgers going to score more than 3. It's a very high spread, but it really should be higher, no?
November 15th, 2019 at 11:36 PM ^
I am thinking if it was any higher they'd take it off the board. Not sure if I've ever seen a spread this high. I certainly have never seen a 60 point spread.
This is why Rutgers does not belong in the B1G.
November 16th, 2019 at 7:46 AM ^
Not going to happen, Rutgers has home field advantage.
(Hope /s comes through, but you never know)
November 15th, 2019 at 10:34 PM ^
Forgot to mention another notable spread is Northwestern is 41 point favorites over UMass.
November 15th, 2019 at 10:43 PM ^
Good point, if Army could demolish that 35 point spread against UMass last week, Northwestern shouldn't have a problem covering the 41. It just gets a little dicey with the temperatures this time of year - otherwise I put the paycheck on it.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:36 PM ^
I don't think Northwestern could score 40 points on an empty field.
November 16th, 2019 at 7:38 AM ^
Is there any way UMass can score negative points? Northwestern has scored 38 points total in their last 5 games.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:34 PM ^
My lord, how bad is UMass. That bad, huh?
November 15th, 2019 at 10:54 PM ^
i have a friendly wager with my father in law. i got him on the ND game, so double-or-nothing with sparty. i gave him 14 pts to be nice - he's a great father in law and he has some painful health issues right now. i do hope my generosity is far too little to help him out on this one.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:18 PM ^
14 points is not really so nice. When you say friendly, how many farm animals are we talkin' about?
November 16th, 2019 at 6:07 AM ^
funny. you know the old saying about 'charlie don't surf'? well, 'grandpa don't farm' so no animals are in the mix. the deal is a lottery ticket. loser buys it. (a $2 wager. huge, i know) if we win, we split the winnings.
and thank you for the well-wishes. he had back surgery and it made things worse. he is in his mid-80's and still looks like jack lalane, but this back thing has finally slowed him down on exercise and all. great guy. heck, he let me marry his daughter and i am forever thankful for that alone.
November 16th, 2019 at 7:51 AM ^
IMHO low stakes wagers with friends / family are the best. Taking (or losing) big money can have lasting implications.
November 16th, 2019 at 1:15 AM ^
Hope your FIL gets relief, for real.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:13 PM ^
EZ money pick of the week: Florida -7 over Missouri
UCLA +21 over Utah
Wisconsin -14 over Nebraska. . .After another ass beating, Scott Frost promises, for the umpteenth time, to do whatever it takes to get it turned around. So why don't he sit Adrian Martinez? But I doubt Frost will ever face the kind of home-town negativity Harbaugh faces.
November 16th, 2019 at 1:45 AM ^
I wouldn't be so sure on that Florida-Mizzou game. Careful! I actually disagree on Utah as well, they'll spank UCLA. Agree on Wisconsin rumbling over Nebraska.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:14 PM ^
I don’t know if we cover 14, but under 45 seems appealing
November 15th, 2019 at 11:33 PM ^
I've been patiently waiting for a resurfacing of the offense we had against ND. Maybe we'll see it against MSU. I am cautiously optimistic.
November 16th, 2019 at 7:54 AM ^
Lines imply a final score of M 29.5 - MSU 15.5. Seems too high on MSU side.
November 16th, 2019 at 8:48 AM ^
Seems a bit too high on both sides to me. The under in that game might be the best bet.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^
Ohio State and the over are the closest thing to free money available.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:38 PM ^
Who regrets joining the B1G the most? Rutger, or Nebrask?
Gotta be N, even tho R is on a graduated payment schedule.
November 16th, 2019 at 7:56 AM ^
How much of Nebraska's troubles are related to move to B1G? Seems like this was coming regardless.
November 16th, 2019 at 8:57 AM ^
Nebraska's problems go far beyond a move to the Big Ten. The landscape of college football has changed dramatically over the past 25 years and some of the inherent advantages that they had are no longer there. Their strength program was arguably 15 years ahead of everyone else's in the last century--not today. Their walk-on program which created Wisconsin'esque OLs with 22 and 23 year old Nebraska kids--not today (they brought like 145 kids to the 1990 Orange Bowl or something). They could put more resources into the program because it mattered more to them than say Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Now every school has a ton of money to throw at football.
This reminds me of NC State basketball fans a decade ago. They felt they were just a good coach away from being with UNC and Duke (NC State won a pair of national titles in 1974 and 1983). That just wasn't the case. Nebraska is in the same boat. I feel Scott Frost is vastly overrated as a head coach, but Tom Osborne isn't winning national titles at today's Nebraska.
November 16th, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
Surrprised to find out just how low Nebraska high school football talent is ranked. But Scott Frost proved his worth at UCF & I would imagine he has good connections there.
Anyway, I was just thinking that in the minds of their fans, things have really not gone well since they came to the B1G. They had some success early, but they have to be longing for the good old days when they were perennial powers in the B12.
edit: N’s payout from B12 was $9M in 2010. They will receive $56M from B1G this year. The fans may regret it, but the bean counters don’t.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:31 PM ^
I doubled down on Michigan -14.5.
I also have IU +14.5, Iowa -3 and Notre Dame -7.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:37 PM ^
I got it wrong earlier in the week when I didn't think the line was going to go below -14.5 once it got to that point, as it ended up creeping down as low as -13.5 a couple days ago. Have to wonder if that's "sharp" money that got it below 14 for a bit . Well hopefully it shouldn't matter and Michigan blows them the fuck out!
Of course we'll see if there's any line movement tomorrow morning when the betting limits get bigger
...Franklin is lousy ATS against the spread. Lean IU +14.5 as well.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:46 PM ^
When I first took the bet I hesitated due to the 1/2 point. But then I said fuck it, we're either going to win big or it'll be within 10 points. I am leaning toward the former.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
Ohio @ Rutger - 1H line is ohio -34.5, and 1H O/U is 36.5...
So if I hedge on Rutger +34.5 and the over, literally the only exposure I have is if the score is EXACTLY ohio 35-0 or 36-0 ?. Done.
November 16th, 2019 at 8:41 AM ^
Not a gambler, which will be obvious soon. Suppose final is OSU 33 - 0. You win on Rutgers +34.5, but lose on the over. Is that a totally breakeven proposition? Ie, the win nets you a gain of $1 which offset the loss on the losing bet. If so, how does the house make money?
November 16th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
I'm only betting the first half (1H).
You're correct in that break-even proposition, save the juice (-110, meaning that I bet $55 for every $50 cashout win), provided I bet the same amount on each wager (I bet more on the over 36.5).
I'm more than content with (at least) a 99.5% break-even proposition (only double-loss is if Ohio is pitching an exact 35-0 or 36-0 shutout at half). Odds are I will cash one, and take an L on the other. Lets say I bet $50 on each - if I split, I lose $5 (2 x $55 bet = $110 outlay , cash $50 on 1 of the $55 = $105 total cashout). This is how the house makes their $, my $5 'juice.'
I also have the opportunity for a double-win - if Rutger scores (somehow, fumble return? FG?) in the 1H. While a 35-0 score would net me a double loss (Ohio covers, under 36.5), a 35-3 score would net me a double win (Rutger cover, over). I'm simply hoping for ANY Rutger points. A sole Rutger TD puts me in prime position for a cover and an over win. I win $100 on the $110 outlay.
TL;DR - the best odds are a split, where I lose a net $5 (assuming a $50 bet each). I have a MUCH higher chance of cashing $100 (double win), than losing $110 (double loss). To me, that more than offsets the risk. It's indeed rare to find an O/U (36.5) so closely paralleling the line (34.5). Minimize the risk, opportunity for a double win = double rainbow. Hope the way I worded the above makes sense.
November 15th, 2019 at 11:57 PM ^
I really don’t understand how in the world Minnesota is a dog against Iowa tomorrow. If I gambled I think I’d allocate a fair amount of capital on Minny.
November 16th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
Minnesota is off a program-defining win playing a road game against a good team. Maybe Minnesota is THAT much better than Iowa. I don't think so and neither does Vegas.
November 16th, 2019 at 1:36 AM ^
Minnesota is Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week!
Row the boat, motherbitches!
November 16th, 2019 at 8:41 AM ^
Ohio state covers
minnesota money line
auburn money line
Indiana and over teaser
Yeah, I like to bet on sports. But betting on sports doesn't give me as much pleasure as playing casino. I certainly prefer online casinos. Before the game, I try to always visit the resource where you can find information about Thebes Casino. This gives me the opportunity to be as prepared for the game as possible and to have privileges. As for sports betting, I mostly rarely do.