WBB March Madness preview: beat Kansas, then Juju

Submitted by jplwhite on March 18th, 2024 at 9:28 AM

Michigan’s first round game is at 2pm on Saturday 3/23 on March Madness Live, ESPN News, or Paramount+. 

Michigan

  • Key stats: 
    • Scoring Offense: 70.0 (92nd in nation)
    • Scoring Defense: 63.0 (151, tied for first in the Big Ten)
    • Rebound Margin: +5.4
    • Turnovers Per Game: 15.2
  • Key players: 
    • While she started the season with a whimper, Laila Phelia finished with a bang in the Big Ten Tournament, leading Michigan to a win over #12 Indiana and making the all-tournament team as the only player who did not play in the championship game. She is averaging 16.8 points per game.
    • Junior guard Jordan Hobbs leads the team with 3 assists per game and has shot 39.1% from three this season
    • 5th year transfer guard Lauren Hansen runs the point most of the time and has often been the player hitting clutch shots in big game moments
    • 5th year transfer guard Elissa Brett shot 37.2% from three this season and has racked up charges on the defensive end
    • Sophomore forward Chyra Evans became a starter halfway through the season because of her ability to distribute in the post and use quick footwork to get to the basket
    • Senior forward Cam Williams started every game last season, but has become Michigan’s most important bench piece, often dominating smaller and less experienced posts with her size and positioning
  • Play style: 
    • Michigan runs a 6-woman rotation with Cam Williams the first off the bench. Stuck, Kampschroeder, and Woodson are the next most likely to get some minutes. Michigan loves to out rebound opponents and use cutting drives to set up three point shooters. They have bad games when they can’t limit turnovers or can’t hit the open shots they find. 

Kansas:

  • Key stats: 
    • Scoring Offense: 68.1 (123rd in nation)
    • Scoring Defense: 63.7 (173)
    • Opponents out-rebound Kansas by a margin of 2.1 rebounds per game
    • As a team, Kansas shoots 32.8% from three
    • Started the season 10-10 before finishing 9-2 with their only losses coming to ranked Baylor and Texas teams.
  • Key players: 
    • Freshman guard S’Mya Nichols is leading Kansas in points per game with 15.2 
    • Senior center Taiyanna Jackson averages 3.1 blocks per game
    • Two players are shooting above 40% from three: senior guard Holly Kersgieter (41.5%) and Nichols (40.8%)
  • Outlook: 
    • If Michigan wins the rebounding battle and limits Kansas’ three point shooters, they will have a good shot in this game. Pay attention to how Chyra Evans and Cam WIlliams fare on the glass and how well Michigan can score. Laila Phelia will need to continue her stellar play from the Big Ten Tournament and get backup from at least two others in the scoring column, most likely Lauren Hansen and Jordan Hobbs. 

USC

  • Key stats: 
    • Scoring Offense: 74.5 (45th in nation)
    • Scoring Defense: 61.9 (119)
    • Assists Per Game: 15.1
    • Turnovers Per Game: 12.3 (best in the Pac-12)
  • Key players: 
    • Freshman guard JuJu Watkins averaged 27 ppg, good for second in the nation behind Clark
    • The next best scorer is senior guard McKenzie Forbes with 13.5 ppg
    • Junior center Rayah Marshall averages a double double with 10.2 ppg and 10.5 rebounds per game
  • Outlook: 
    • Whoever makes it out of the Michigan/Kansas game, they will have a tough test against USC on Monday 3/25. Limiting Juju Watkins will be the first priority, but will most likely prove futile as she has only scored below 20 points in 7 games this season. More feasible may be limiting the rest of the team and living with a one on one matchup with Watkins. In their five losses this season, USC has lost the rebounding battle and failed to score above 70 points. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi:

  • As a 16 seed, Texas A&M CC does not stand much of a chance playing USC on their home court. They are 23-8 on the season and made March Madness by winning the Southland tournament. Watch this game on Saturday afternoon if you want to see more of Juju Watkins before USC joins the Big Ten next season. 

Former Michigan Players in the Tournament:

  • Maddie Nolan and Colorado made it into the tournament as a 5 seed after starting the season strong, then fading a bit in the back stretch. They will play Friday evening against Drake. Nolan is not starting, but has played in every game this season, averaging 6.2 ppg and improving her three point percentage from 34.2% last year to 45.2% this year, though on 75 less attempts.
  • Izabel Varejão and Syracuse made it into the tournament as a 6 seed and will play Saturday afternoon against the winner of Auburn/Arizona. Varejão has started a few times and played in about half their games, averaging 17.5 minutes after not playing at all last year. She is shooting 51.2% from the field, scored a season high 14 points in a late-February overtime loss to 3-seed NC State, and is a key rotation piece for Syracuse. 

Team 101

March 18th, 2024 at 1:16 PM ^

Are you uncomfortable because you think we are going to lose to USC?

Or are you uncomfortable because because you think our chances of beating USC are good even though in WBB the chances of a #9 seed beating a #1 seed are about the same as Warde apologizing to Juwan and re-signing him to a five year contract?

GoBlue1530

March 18th, 2024 at 2:41 PM ^

Have you watched USC play at all? I've watched them play Washington and lose, played Arizona (ranked right next to Michigan) tight twice. They're obviously a really good team, they've taken two of three against Stanford.  They're not the typical unbeatable one seed on the women's side though. 

Women's version of KenPom says they'd be 6 point favorites over Michigan, and that USC is the 16th best team in the country, and the 10th best according to NET. Every other potential one seed is going to be favored by 12+ in their second round matchup. Would I bet Michigan wins? No. But I think they have a decent chance, unlike if they had to play South Carolina, Iowa, Texas, and quite frankly most of the two seeds. 

It's not like two one seeds lost last year in the second round, that would be crazy.