The Vig: Week 4
How did you do last week?
I had a 3 team parlay for Michigan/NIU on the over, MSU to cover, and Clemson to cover. Clemson spectacularly did not cover.
I was tempted by Purdue and Bama but stayed away.
Notable lines this week:
ND vs Wisconsin -6 (Soldier Field)
Kent State at Maryland -14.5
UCLA at Stanford +4.5
Louisville at FSU +1.5
So Miss at Bama -45.5 o/u 58
Georgia at Vandy +36 o/u 53
Tenn at Florida -18.5
Clemson at NC St +10
Nebraska at MSU -5.5
Rutgers at Mich -20.5
TAMU at Arkansas +5
September 24th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
Last week was a little rough, though still up about 40% for the season thus far. This week I took:
Under 62.5 in Louisville vs. FSU
Over 47 in A&M vs. Arkansas
Over 57.5 in Arizona vs. Oregon
Ohio State -31 in the first half vs. Akron
Michigan -19.5 vs. Rutgers
Buffalo -13.5 vs. Old Dominion
September 24th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
Dude, the season is only 3 weeks old. ?
September 24th, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
You mean you weren't betting Week 0 games?
/s
But yeah, I know there's a long way to go. I mainly do it for fun, I deposited an amount at the beginning of the season and I'll play with that until I lose it all or the end of the season.
September 24th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
That MSU line seems off. I'd take MSU and the points, I don't care how Nebraska did against OU.
Also I'd be surprised if Rutgers keeps it within 3 TDs but maybe that's just my homerness speaking
September 24th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
That game opened with MSU -3. So far people are agreeing with you that MSU should get the job done.
September 24th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
Michigan St is awful against the spread at home. Something like 2-10 in their last 12.
September 24th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
On May 21st, Draft Kings had Nebraska giving 5.5 to MI St this weekend. Jumped on MI ST when I saw that. They also had Michigan giving 2 pts at Nebraska, all though I don't think that line have moved much.
September 24th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
I hate to admit it, but I'd hammer that State game. MSU and the points. Nebraska just lost their super bowl and they're on the road at night in gawdawful EL.
You're hedged in a way. If State loses, then you can enjoy State losing. If they win, you're paid.
September 24th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Exactly this. Just laid 2U on MSU -5. Still rooting for Nebraska but win some cash if MSU wins
September 24th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
Or MSU wins by between 1 and 4 points. How would that make you feel?
September 24th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Does "hammer" mean anything specific in sports betting? or is it more of a general term for taking a big position on one game/team?
September 24th, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
Second one
September 24th, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^
Nebraska is almost a mirror of Miami
I would bet this one game this year and put about 5K on it, also for the reasons you stated--Nebraska will be totally flat. The ONLY question is whether MSU comes out flat, too after winning their big game. BUT that is probably overthinking it.
Giving only 3? HAMMER TIME
I used to bet rarely in my betting days but I would always bet against MSU the week after the Michigan game, particularly if they beat Michigan.
September 24th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
I got Michigan at 18.5 early in the week.
I took Nebraska to cover for no reason other than I don't want a reason to root for Michigan St.
I like Arkansas to cover against A&M's back up QB. Neutral site game at AT&T Stadium.
I know you didn't post these but taking the under on total points for Iowa games and Washington games is paying off for me this year.
Ohio st is like a 49.5 point favorite over Akron. AP ranked teams are 1-12 ATS when favored by 50 or more against a fellow FBS school since the mid 1990s. Including Ohio St not covering a 52 point spread against Rutgers a couple years ago. Ohio St will crush Akron this week. But they probably wont do it by 50 plus.
September 24th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
This is actually a game I would not feel comfortable betting on. On the one hand, they're favored by a ridiculous amount and as you say FBS teams tend not to cover when the margin is so high.
On the other hand, Akron got crushed by Temple.
I could also see Day keeping his starting quarterback in the game longer since he's not starting Stroud. He'll presumably want them to get more reps.
September 24th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
Last week
Parlay Losses
My parlay last week was not great.
Had NU-OU Over 61.5
OSU -27.5 over Tulsa
Utah -7 over SDSU
Stanford -11 over Vandy
Other Losses
Had Charlotte ML +160 over
Miss St/Memphis Over 64
Miami -6 over MSU
Lost a silly prop bet for Jayden Daniels to rush Over 51.5 yards
WINS
Made a little money back with ULL throwing a TD in the last minute of the game while already up 28 to hit the Over 56.5
Had Utah State over Air Force ML +270
Won a prop bet for there to not be 3 unanswered scores in the MSU-Miami game +225
This week (kind of went a little crazy)
Early Loss in a 3 pt Pleaser Bet (was trying out the different bets BetUS offered)
App St -7 (-10) over Marshall
The Fightin Falwells -6 (-9) over Cuse
6 pt Teaser
ULL -14 (-8) over Georgia Southern
Iowa St -7 (-1) over Baylor
Parlays
#1
Wyoming Over 42.5 against UConn
Tulane Over 28.5 against UAB
#2
Louisville -2 over dumpster fire FSU
UTSA +3 against Memphis
Buffalo -14 over Old Dominion
Ark ML +180 against TAMU
#3
UVA -4 over WF
Kentucky -5.5 over the Cocks
WMU -2.5 over SJSU
Army -8 over Miami-Ohio
Ohio-NW Under 47.5
Other
UGA -35.5 over Vandy - I've been reading that UGA will probably put it on Vandy after how Vandy handled the games last year and UGA missing out on Senior Day
Michigan -18.5 over Rutger
September 24th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Ill be on:
Ohio +14.5
Colorado State +23.5
Akron +49.5
MSU -5
September 24th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
4-6 last week.
The App St dive at the 2 yard line screwed me last night.
I like UCLA -4.5
MSU -5.5
Louisville -1.5
Don't have a good feel for ND/WI. Maybe under 45
edit: Never bet against Rahm/Garcia in Ryder Cup
September 24th, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
Is it a contrarian indicator if majority of Michigan fans are betting on Michigan to beat the spread?
September 24th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
I’ll parlay Louisville over FSU, MSU over Nebraska, and……UCLA over Stanford. What do I make on a $50 bet?
September 24th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
depends on the odds you're getting. FD pays ~145 at current odds.
September 24th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Then I just have done something horribly wrong on the slip I filled out on DraftKings…it listed the payout as less than $100 (like $92 or so).
it matters not since I live in FL and can’t legally gamble anyway ?
September 24th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
I'm in FL and use BetUS.
You're not breaking any laws using an offshore sportsbook site like BetUS, Bovada, etc.
September 24th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
Could just be the way they state payouts. FD might include your wager in the payout and DK doesn't.
September 24th, 2021 at 10:26 AM ^
FYI, FanDuel sportsbook has a promo on the Michigan/Rutger game. The spread moves in UM’s favor by a point every time 300 (??) people bet on UM. Currently, it’s UM+39.5 paying out at -110.
So, if you want to (almost) double your $25, which is the max bet,get on it ya degenerates.
September 24th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Came here to post this. Up to Michigan +42.5 now (aka free money)
September 24th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Not a bad week for me last week:
Hit on BYU +3.5, CINCY -3.5, MSU +6.5, lost VT +122. and missed on my two long odds parlays. Netted 3 units.
currently in on VA -4.5, ND +5.5, UGA -34.5, SMU +9.5, M -19.5 and the spread the love promo on FD which currently has the line moved to +39.5.
September 24th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
Only favored by 20.5?
September 24th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
Looks like I missed the thread last week which was probably for the best as it wasn't the best week. I did take Michigan and MSU though and those both cashed easily.
Michigan and MSU are combined 6-0 ATS this year so I'll ride that train until it derails. I took Michigan at line open (-18.5) and will bet MSU tonight when I put in the rest of my picks. I don't see how Nebraska keeps this game under a TD after the emotional letdown of the game last weekend plus at night on the road in the first game of any real significance for MSU at home in 2 years.
I'll probably take Virginia -3.5 vs Wake tonight. No real analysis other than I love Virginia QB and are at home. That game should be fun.
Give me Kansas State +5.5 at Oklahoma State. I don't trust either of their QB's and like their defenses so I'll take the points. Leaning toward something similar with ND and Wisconsin. Both of those O/U are so low I don't know if I want to be on those unders.
September 24th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
Notre Dame is Smooth Jimmy's ? of the Week
September 24th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
1 game off on cashing in a 6-game parlay a couple weeks ago (thanks, LSU)
Here's mine for this week (the first team is my pick):
ND +6.5 vs Wisconsin: I'm honestly surprised this isn't ND -6.5. Neutral stadium, Wisconsin's offense is bleh, and I just think ND is a superior team top to bottom.
Texas Tech +7.5 at Texas: Tech can throw the ball like crazy, and this is a rivalry- give me the points.
LSU -2 at Miss St (please redeem me if it comes down to you LSU): Banking on LSU's defense shutting down a one-trick pony.
NC State +10 vs Clemson: NC State has a legit defense and Clemson can't score. I just don't see how they cover 10.
Kansas State +5.5 at OK State: Probably the riskiest of the bunch, but K-State seems to be sneaky good- take the points.
WVU +17.5 at OK: OK hasn't blown anyone out, and WVU has the ability to hang around.
September 24th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
The line for UM vs. Wisconsin -4 on my book. I love being dogs... :-O
September 24th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
Last week, I thought MSU on the money line was one of the best bets out there.
This week, I think Nebraska is.
September 24th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
It is a REALLY unusual line. I honestly thought, before the odds came out, it was going to be MSU -14 or so; I'm stunned to see -5.
September 24th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
So you think MSU would be like -10 against Oklahoma? I think I would take Oklahoma and the points.
September 24th, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
Transitive property is useless in sports, IMO.
If OK was home, I think it would be somewhere in the ballpark of -15 to -18, just like it is tomorrow against WVU.
I honestly don't think much of Oklahoma this year. They've been completely unimpressive in their wins. Rattler is a baller, but that's about it.
September 25th, 2021 at 1:01 AM ^
Not saying I guarantee Nebraska wins ATS, but I think they’re the “sharp” side this weekend at the very least. That line stinks
September 24th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
I just did most of my bets for tonight and the early/afternoon games tomorrow. Some of my favorites:
Wake Forest @ Virginia under 70.5
Texas A&M -4.5 @ Arkansas
Louisiana -14 @ Ga Southern
CSU @ Iowa under 44
Maryland -14.5 vs Kent St
Army -7.5 vs Miami (NTM)
Buffalo -13 @ ODU
Toledo -4.5 @ Ball St
Wyoming -30 vs UConn
I also got Michigan -19 earlier this week before it jumped to -20.5.
September 24th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
Michigan to cover by halftime
September 24th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
Last week was good:
MSU and Fresno State to win and cover
Florida to cover (which seemed insanely logical to me but +14.5 I thought maybe I was missing something)
lost on: auburn to cover and Virginia tech to cover. Both math errors that I hope not to make again but you can’t expect perfection.
I haven’t seen every game for tomorrow yet but I like Texas tech and Arkansas to cover if not win out right. The yds per play metrics for these teams are such that they should be a field goal difference so it seems like there is value here.
September 24th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Michigan -20.5 is a lock
Rutgers is not that good. They gained less than 200 yards against Syracuse and relied on 3 Cuse turnovers to secure the win. Worth noting that Syracuse is a 6.5 point dog at home to Liberty this weekend - not an impressive win by Rutgers.
Go Blue!
September 25th, 2021 at 12:56 AM ^
last week record 1-6 (yuck). Season record 8-12.
Wisconsin -6.5
Army -8.5
Georgia Tech / Auburn over 57
Florida 1st half -10.5
West Virginia +17
Florida Atlantic +4.5
Hawaii/NMSU over 62
Western Kentucky +9