Update on Michigan High School Sports for This Fall - Planning on Playing
Mates,
Had a call with the local AD and he reports a few things of import. Suggest you file this under the 'we'll see' portion of your thoughts.
First, MHSAA expects to have and is planning on having a full fall schedule of sports.
Second, the word is that (paraphrasing) all creative ideas to help that happen are encouraged.
Third, as it relates to football they are going to let JV players have a total of 5 quarters of playing time per week - for instance they could play 3 quarters of their JV game and still have 2 quarters of eligibility to play in a varsity game that same week. This is supposedly to assist schools with smaller programs to make sure they can field a team.
Lastly, the schools are being told that their state revenue grants will be reduced for obvious reasons. If that number is in the $350-500 per pupil range that can be overcome hopefully by most systems. If it is as large as $1,000 per pupil drop then you are probably looking at some significant financial difficulties for many school systems.
XM
Sounds good to me, but it assumes our wise and sagely Governor will allow them to play.
I am very concerned that Gov. Whitmer will make a hasty decision to postpone K-12 in the fall, or come up with some half-baked combination of in-person and remote learning that will only confuse and frustrate.
She seems to be obsessed about a potential BIG second wave of Covid that will crash over Michigan like a Tsunami, wiping out all the progress already made in reducing cases. She mentioned (in her press conf. last Fri) the Spanish Flu in 1919 and how there was this HUGE 2nd Wave that was even worse than the first and how determined she was to not let this happen again today in this pandemic.
But she is missing one vital part of the picture. When the 2nd wave came with the Spanish Flu, the country was no better prepared than for the initial onset. People just thought that it had petered out and that was that. So of course when it came back there was even more devastation with the long fall and winter ahead.
Today, the situation is much different. Science is MUCH more advanced, and brilliant minds around the world are working feverishly to find solutions to solve and stop Covid. Plus, this virus is much less deadly except to the elderly and those already saddled with health issues. Healthy people under the age of 70 are not unduly threatened by Covid-19. It's still dangerous to many people, yes, but it's no Spanish Flu which ravaged all ages and killed even healthy people in their prime of life.
A safe & effective vaccine is the ultimate solution of course but that is highly unlikely to be available by September except maybe in a risky emergency use only form for the most vulnerable.
But even without a vaccine we already have one antiviral treatment (Remdesivir) that has proved antiviral action in the NIH study that shortens the duration of infection. It may even be more effective than that b/c that was a study for severe cases and the thinking is that it's even better before Covid gets severe. Early treatment *should* be even more effective. We'll see. Plus it was shown that a 5-day (IV) course is just as effective as a 10-day course, so that means the supply goes twice as far in case there are shortages.
The coming months *should* also see even more effective antiviral treatments, particularly in combination with anti-inflammatory drugs, that promise a lot of stopping power even if short of a "cure" that could make the virus survivable for all but the most elderly, weak, ill, obese, etc. This is not wishful thinking; it is --imo-- the likeliest scenario given all the resources, expertise, and worldwide determination to win this battle ASAP, and in light of the clear progress already made.
So, you’re concerned because a public official is worried about public health despite what you assume “should” happen in the coming months?
No, I'm conerned that THE public official in charge of all these critical decisions affecting millions of lives in Michigan is in too much of a hurry to cancel and confine her way to what she views as safety. The safety is illusory. Short of a safe & effective vaccine, widely distributed, we will not have safety by continuing to confine all healthy Michiganders.
And then there's this too, which goes way beyond Michigan but with the same bottom line: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-11/more-than-a-billion-people-escaped-poverty-in-the-last-20-years-the-coronavirus-could-erase-those-gains
Economic collapse would/will be much more catastrophic than what Covid has dished out. By far. Including health and fatalities.
What's the price tag you put on your loved ones? If one of them dies will you sit and in your head do the math? Or even if say one of them ends up in ICU struggling for their life.
There is no way to put life vs. the economy on such a simplistic scale but that's what so many want to do...until it affects them personally. And that's probably why these debates are best left off of football message boards. Not to mention just how political your comments are...I mean you can love or hate what the governor is doing but its a stretch to suggest that any governor wants economic collapse...to achieve what? That's definitely NOT in the 'get re-elected' playbook.
The policy makers are in one hell of a spot at all levels..and as long as they are not overtly playing political games (some definitely are and have been from jump) I'm willing to give them a lot leniency.
suicides, child abuse, domestic violence all go....up. meanwhile we stunt the lives of children. quarantine the vulnerable, protect them, let the rest of us get on with living before we plunder the country from within.
and if we are so concerned about 'life', we should revisit another discussion on that topic.
I NEVER said, implied, or believe, that Gretchen wants economic collapse. Nor was there anything political in what I wrote. What I AM saying is that her draconian confinement policy went too far and is loosening too slowly. What I AM saying is that shutting down a State or Country to slow a virus spread is a much more dangerous act than Gov. Whitmer seems aware of. Why do I say that? Because it sets in motion downward pressure and momentum in the economy which will be extremely hard to rebound from, and with consequences that could dwarf the virus crisis as the dominoes fall. All of her energy is focused on stopping the virus, I get it, but I think it's giving her tunnel-vision. I truly hope I am wrong about that. We'll find out.
"Economic collapse would/will be much more catastrophic than what Covid has dished out."
You realize that covid is dishing out the economic problems. They are not mutually exclusive.
I think people greatly underestimate the economic impact that even a more targeted shutdown would have had. Meat packing plants are having challenges not because anyone covered them by a shutdown order. The hospitality industry’s challenges may have been marginally sped up, but they were going to have significant challenges under any policy. Pressure for auto manufacturers to idle plants came before many of the shutdown orders.
We were going to have long lived economic impacts regardless of the policy choices being made.
blue, my reply below here was to true-blue, not you. I do appreciate your many thoughtful posts on the many covid topics. Our take(s) are often different but you always seem to maintain civility and not assume the worst of other's motives. An honest, earnest debate is always a good thing in my book. You make good points with your arguments and always seem open to other views, while open to a constructive back-and-forth. A Tip-of-the-Hat to you, blue.
Thanks. Clearly you’ve missed a few of my more emotional exchanges, but do I try to take a deep breathe and do a bit of research before responding. It is nice to know it is noticed.
Covid is causing severe health and serious economic problems, yes.
How some in power have/are responding to Covid (extended shut down orders in particular) risks a downward spiral toward economic collapse which in my opinion would dwarf Covid in its breadth and consequences, including health consequences. Right now the thinking is that we'll just spend our way out of this but that's wishful thinking, imo. I truly hope I'm wrong.
My issue with your original post was that you were basing your argument(s) on presuppositions that may or may not be justified.
There is some conjecture opinion in there, yes, but there are also some hard facts such as the one antiviral drug --remdesivir-- that has already proved to be effective in shortening the course of Cov.19 in severe cases. What's doubly encouraging about that is the fact that the known action of that drug is thought to work even more effectively in early stages of infection. Remdesivir wasn't even developed for Cov.19, but rather for Ebola. The fact that it shows action in blocking Cov.19 gives scientists a base to build on in developing even more effective drugs, and combinations of drugs, that will be targeted specifically at Cov.19. Even Anthony Fauci found this to be significant step forward and he is a very cautious man.
So Whitmer is saying this is like the flu (or resembles it in certain ways)? I thought that was taboo, verboten, only something an idiot would do.
As someone who works in education, this decision NEEDS to be made soon. We are having students register for fall classes, and the fact that it is in limbo absolutely sucks. I am terrified about the backlash if we wait till the end of summer and they say, "Sorry, classes are online."
I am hoping that our school makes a determination about fall like now.
Other than making the uncertainty "suck" less (and I'm sorry but everything about this sucks so we just have to get through the suck), what is the benefit of making a decision now?
What backlash are you terrified about that wouldn't happen if anything definitive was announced now? One could argue it would be way worse now because any decision they make now is going to be met with "arggh, it's too early we don't know enough about this yet how can you DO that!?!?!" and that sentiment will be correct no matter what the plan is.
We're more than three months away. There's a TON of information that will become available between now and then (possible treatments, results of well-done serosurveys, indications as to whether we'll get our heads out of our asses when it comes to contact tracing, etc) that will allow authorities to make better decisions. Seems stupid to decide anything now.
Optimism is generally a very good thing. But here, you severely underestimate the human's ability to act against their own best interest and those of their fellow humans. You may cite our advanced science and technology all you wish. However, look at our federal government and all its resources and the unmitigated nonsense it has generated in our national response to this matter. We are what we are.
That said, I believe the games can be played rather safely if guided by people of integrity and wisdom. But there are a significant gaggle of ignorant fools making a whole lot of noise these days. Good luck to everyone in this regard.
Yes there were a LOT of very serious missteps in how public officials responded to this crisis. Have there been as many scientific screw-ups? The CDC and Surgeon General telling everyone to NOT WEAR MASKS was one, for sure, but otherwise I think that science and scientists have been generally on-target with their efforts, particularly when it comes to the research being done on antiviral treatments and vaccine development. It's when the science interracts with the political ( or, more accurately, when politicians claim the mantle of science to justify their policy decisions) where there's been confusion and conflict. None of those choices are "science," they are public policy. Any politician who says "The science is telling us to... A, B, or C" is just trying to cover their ass.
But the real science, the development of antiviral treatments, antibody treatments, anti-inflammatory treatments, and vaccines, is continuing apace and is yielding valuable results even this soon, which is quite amazing. Those saying that I'm being Pollyannish in this regard will find that the science of 2020 is indeed light years ahead of the science of 1919. And Cov.19 is an absolute lightweight compared to the Spanish Flu of 1919.
I’m not really sure a combination of in-person and remote learning is that half baked. Splitting a school’s population in two greatly and splitting days (or weeks) allows for much greater social distancing while still providing some of the key benefits of in person learning.
it obviously is a huge challenge for families where both parents have jobs that also have younger kids.
You might be right about that blue. It would be better than not having K-12 at all.
Gotta love when someone says “We are more prepared and they underestimated it back then” and then goes on to laud that science is better today and we know more today. No, no we don’t know more about containment than back then—evidenced by our not following the guidelines set up by scientific experts. Also, being technologically better in understanding viruses and how they work doesn’t guarantee a therapy or a vaccine by fall—three months away. So even if science knows what to do, the ignorance and stupidity of Americans wins. Hence, you whining about your governor protecting people from the virus.
New York found out that 84% of their C-19 patients were either in nursing homes or at home sheltering in place. So, explain to me again how she is keeping us safe.
This is false. 66% simply said they lived at home when asked where they were living as they became hospitalized (and 18% lived in nursing homes). That's it.
They were not necessarily strictly "sheltering-at-home" whatever that even means.
Except we ARE by-and-large following guidelines for things like social distance which is proven to reduce infection rates. The false alternative comes with those who insisted, citing science, that QUARANTINE of healthy people was a necessity to stop Cov.19. Masking and social distance was plenty enough to stop the spread but Gretchen insisted that we must ALL be bottled up in our "safe places" too. Nothing less would do. THAT wasn't scientific; that was a political figure running scared and hiding behind science, going too far.
The SCIENCE that I am referring to is the hard science of antiviral treatments, antibody treatments, and vaccines. Apparently you are too lazy to read up on it and LEARN how much progress has already been made, and how many other breakthroughs are pending, You can't be bothered with any of that. Ignorance is bliss. Believe what comforts you (or feeds your breezy cynicism) but there will indeed be much more effective scientific treatments for Cov.19 in the coming 3 to 4 months and you can bank on that. As for a vaccine, that one is further off, yes, except perhaps on an emergency-use-only basis for those most critically exposed and/or vulnerable.
Finally, you seem to feel strongly that people in Michigan should be deeply grateful to our Governor for "protecting (us) people from the virus." Uh, No. She went further than "scientifically" necessary, and by doing so has also exposed us dangerously to an even greater threat which looms overhead: Economic Collapse. What do the social scientists say about what an economic collapse would do to the health and well-being of Michiganders?
I am that dumber for reading this drivel. Go talk to to the many folks that have lost loved ones - old, young, pre-existing, perfectly healthy, married, single, and on and on. As I have said before - need a vaccine. There is no quick way out.
but isn't what you said about those affected true of every single cause of death? cancer, car accidents, and everything in between including the regular flu and however you/we classify C-19?
True. If we just talk to all the folks who have lost loved ones to car accidents, for example, then we might well walk away with a firm conviction that speed limits must be lowered to 10 MPH nationwide which would save tens of thousands of lives every year. Loved ones would be saved from horrible deaths, no doubt. And yes, regular flu too; tens of thousands of loved ones taken every year from "just" the flu. And those losses are sad too, yes. If we keep all healthy people quarantined, and/or reduced speed limits on our roads to 10MPH we would save tens of thousands of lives each and every year.
I have a feeling our friends in the UP will have a more "normal" school year/athletic calendar than us in the Lower Peninsula. Now that the Governor has the state broken out into regions, she has the framework in place to accelerate some areas return to normal living.
High school kids have virtually zero risk of fatality. They should be back at school. If they have parents that are at risk they should be allowed to stay home and join class on line. If families need assistance for this the government should provide it. Physicians should asses the health risk of faculty and staff and decisions should be made as to what steps can be made to mitigate their risk. This virus may be around much longer than we realize and will likely stay around much longer if we continue to isolate. We can’t climb into a hole and quit.
I always thought that it wasn't mainly about protecting the kids, but protecting the adults. At my kid's elementary school, multiple parents and faculty members died from this disease back in March and early April, but all of the kids seem to be okay.
I agree that kids need to be back in school this fall, and I know that at least in Detroit, they are figuring out how to reopen in the fall. If they can do that in the largest school system in the state, I'm sure that's happening statewide and country-wide.
His Majesty, Tony of Fauci, has said there shall be no school until a cure or vaccine for the Corona is found and disseminated.
All games will be played via Zoom.
Who's zooming who?
RIP Queen of Soul.
Yes, and also RIP Clarence Clemons (The Big Man), who played sax on that album
Engage pessimist defense mechanism! Be miserable! You have thirty seconds to comply....
Wow, increasing the number of quarters that a young player can play, how soon we forget about CTE risks.....
I don't think your AD could say anything other than this. They have to expect to play. If they don't play fall sports, athletic budgets are going to be a disaster.
Sadly, Dr. Fauci is right. If the virus comes back in the fall, everybody's going to have some very difficult choices to make.
It's either going to come back at some point or it's never going to leave. That's why people need to start making difficult decisions and coming up with realistic plans now.
I completely agree.
I think most HS administrators are in a huge bind. I don't envy them at all right now.
For sure. Spouting off on the internet is a bit different than having some actual responsibility.
During the fall of an election year, political leaders, especially those up for reelection, will do what they think is best for themselves, not the people.
We're at about 80k dead so far. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 200 or 250 by the end of the year.
You mean in general, because that is a big step down from the 3 million that were gonna die anyway.
I don't think this will happen.
There's someone keeping track of the % of deaths in nursing homes for states that are keeping track. Right now 52%+ are occurring in nursing homes. I forgot to bookmark it if I find it I'll post it.
If that's true of the whole country (and I don't see why it wouldn't be as we've done a terrible job of protecting the elderly), this would mean that we've seen roughly ~39400 deaths outside of nursing homes in the United States.
So sadly, there's a lot fewer vulnerable people to succumb to the virus later this year (and really, many of these people would have died anyway as the mean stay in a nursing home is 5 months while the median is 13) and we'll be more prepared for any future outbreaks. Deaths that would have likely occurred throughout the year have been front loaded due to bad policy.
I would expect deaths (and death rate) to begin to plummet as the people who will be contracting the virus will be far younger and healthier over the summer. Its not likely we will continue the homicidal policy of sending COVID19 patients into nursing homes.
The number keeps growing, of course, but the rate is slowing. I would be surprised if it hits your number.
Not intended to sound cold and uncaring, most deaths are tragic and people suffer from the loss....
I know of two death due to Covid, both were in their 70s with existing health issues.
Statistically, if there are 250,000 deaths, in a population of over 325,000,000, that's a fraction of 1%.
I like and have immense respect for Dr. Fauci, but he's looking at this from one point of view. The country cannot be placed on hold like it has for the past two months until all 300+ M of us have been vaccinated. At some point we have to begin to get back to some sort of normal way of life, cannot continue like this much longer. On Sunday my supermarket looked like a Russian grocery store in the 1970's, almost wiped out. Speaking of "wiped out" haven't seen Charmin in weeks!
I hope you're right, XM. I just wish I could muster a little more optimism.
This country is going to decide if they are willing to risk 2K to 5K deaths a day until and if an effective vaccine comes out.
Really difficult decision especially considering almost everybody has a loved one who's in a high risk category.
What a terrible situation we're in.
At least there's still beer.