Ummm...Further Analysis of Rank the Enemy...Analysis: 2022 vs. 2023

Submitted by trueblueintexas on August 24th, 2023 at 6:24 PM

First off, Seth asked for this, so...even more Analysis, of the Analysis of MGoBlog's Rank the Enemy Analysis on Michigan's schedule.

In yesterday's post Seth asked what the 2022 rankings would have looked like in a histogram. I pulled the rankings, did my thing, and here you go. I'm posting these as 2022 compared to 2023 so you don't have to go back to yesterday's post. 

First the Offense: 

For offense 234 is the max score. The percentage is team score of max score.

A couple things stand out:

  • If you thought the non-conference was bad this year, apparently you completely forgot about last year. I didn't think I would ever have to state this, but the minimum possible score for offense is 18. UConn came pretty damn close. 
  • Not only did Michigan flip spots with OSU, they have an ever so slightly larger gap between 1st and 2nd. Will Columbus stay standing???
  • Coming off MSU's one year portal wonder, I think Alex may have been a little spooked about MSU last year, happy to see that has been rectified this year. 
  • Maryland's offense should be even better this year, although the O-line could still blow that team up. 
  • Maybe PSU is for real???

Now the Defense: 

Max score for defense is 195.

Callouts:

  • Michigan faced one truly great D last year and...checks offense rankings...yep Son Ferentz is still employed there. 
  • Michigan faces two legit defenses this year and they are both paired with good offense & special teams. 12 - 0 will be much harder this year. 
  • Last year's rankings had much more of a mix across multiple teams (other than Iowa). This meant the scores were more evenly spread across the conference portion of the schedule. I will not comment about the non-conference...
  • Ho, wait a second, the minimum score you can get on defense is 15, AND HAWAII DID IT! They were the most inept you could possibly be!!!! This ends non-conference analysis.
  • Okay, this year, Michigan took the top spot in all three positions and OSU & PSU basically shared the 2 & 3 rankings. That means the rest of the schedule is suppressed in scores. Will the other defenses really be that much easier or is it simply that the top teams are that good. I'm going with the later. 

Now the Total:

Max score is 442. Last season's final regular season record is included.

First off, legit props to Alex for getting the top two rankings right. Michigan was slightly better than OSU... 45 - 23 in Columbus BETTER!!!

Okay Alex, I get it, MSU can be scary, especially when confronted at the end of a dark tunnel, but you were all in on the MeLLLLLLL train last year. 

I'll be damned, Nebraska really was the best 4-8 team Michigan faced last year. Well done, Scott Frost's Mom!

PSU's gap with OSU is significantly closer this year. They also cut their gap with Michigan from 81 to 62. 

I'll say it again, Minnesota could be a good measurement of how much better Michigan is than the rest of the schedule. They have the same ranking score as Iowa last year. The defense is not as good, but the offense is at least functionable. (unlike, sigh, yes he is still employed there).

One thing I'll point out about Maryland, the gap in total score last year with Michigan was 157, the gap this year is 162.

Let the games begin.

 

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Rank the Enemy

Vasav

August 24th, 2023 at 6:38 PM ^

Of the four teams in green last year - Illinois had a lead in the final minute of the game, IU was tied at the half, Rutgers was leading at the half, and Maryland held a lead until just before half and played us as competitive as anyone other then TCU and UofI.

The four teams in yellow were all blowouts - PSU led after the half and MSU had an early lead, but the former was fluky and the latter wasn't really in any doubt the entire second half.

I dunno what that means - PSU was clearly the best team of those 8 but was one of our easier wins, along with Rutgers. MSU was clearly a bit overrated, which doesn't mean they will be this year. Nebraska has a lot of unknowns.

For me tho, the Rutgers game will tell us a lot about our offense - we struggled with them that last couple of years (relatively, last year). Then two road trips to Nebraska and Minnesota will give us a sense, as the OP said, of how good we are (Nebraska, like Wisconsin, has a lot of unknowns with them). Let's sweep the non-con and then beat the heck outta Rutgers and feel good about everything.

Joined: 12/13/2009

MGoPoints: 19255

ShadowStorm33

August 25th, 2023 at 1:59 AM ^

Of the four teams in green last year - Illinois had a lead in the final minute of the game, IU was tied at the half, Rutgers was leading at the half, and Maryland held a lead until just before half and played us as competitive as anyone other then TCU and UofI.

Part of me wonders if this was a function of playing the long game. I feel like the staff has done a better job the past couple years of properly prioritizing the big games (other than TCU), and just trying to get in and get out against the teams we should beat. The IU and Rutgers games never really felt in doubt, and Maryland was the only one that was moderately worrisome besides Illinois. Illinois was a unique situation--it was truly a meaningless game for everything except a perfect regular season, and the coaches clearly seemed prepared to lose that game to give us the best chance against OSU (which was the right call).

The four teams in yellow were all blowouts - PSU led after the half and MSU had an early lead, but the former was fluky and the latter wasn't really in any doubt the entire second half.

I dunno what that means

I think it means that when we actually cared, we came out swinging. When we didn't care, we were content to let overmatched teams hang around for awhile before we inevitably pulled away. I think we'll see much of the same this year. Our big road games (PSU, Minnesota, Nebraska) will be a good barometer. If we get through those looking good, LFG...

Joined: 07/22/2008

MGoPoints: 23063

energyblue1

August 25th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^

I don't think the they were content I think a few of these teams were better than we give credit for but our staff was confident that bully ball would win out over the course of the game.  Or as Harbaugh would say, body blows adding up till the defense gives.  This was true against most of our opponents. 

Health played a big part in a few of these games. 

Take Indiana, they had a great game plan to stop our run game and the staff had to open up more with the pass.  Donovan Edwards wasn't available. 

Maryland was a tough opponent as always early on their depth issues haven't caught up to them yet.  With a good qb and a lot of athletic talent they stayed in the game and two turnovers, ie the kickoff and then the fumble by our rb in scoring position..   We had to earn that game as much as any. 

Iowa our staff was very confident in bully man ball just wearing down their defense and content to not turn the ball over as Iowa's offense was a disaster and with a comfortable lead dang near went prevent soft zone. 

Illinois we sat a bunch of players, Corum got hurt and our depth was getting thin.  Getting the stops on defense in the 4th qtr was huge! 

 

All of these games yes the team had to tough it out, but this has happened to most all teams to go undefeated.  You can't bring out your best stuff against them and not hand all of it over to your top opponents.  The only thing I had hoped we would do more of last year was more JJ read option and RPO in the red zone!  But even then you have to be careful how much film you put out for Penn st, Osu and CFP teams.  I really think this is where they got caught against TCU and quite frankly thinking they could run over their defense based on regular season run d wasn't great. 

Joined: 03/19/2010

MGoPoints: 5291

Tshimanga Cowabunga

August 24th, 2023 at 7:17 PM ^

Just to add:

Final Offensive SP+ rankings for 2022:

1. Ohio State (4)
2. Michigan (15)
3. Penn State (31)
4. MSU (51)
5. Maryland (54)
6. Indiana (58)
7. Nebraska (71)
8. Colorado St. (76)
9. Illinois (99)
10. Hawaii (115)
11. Iowa (118)
12. Rutgers (119)
13. UConn (124)

Final Defensive SP+ rankings for 2022:

1. Iowa (1)
2. Illinois (2)
3. Michigan (9)
4. Penn State (12)
5. Ohio State (23)
6. Maryland (33)
7. Rutgers (57)
8. Nebraska (61)
9. UConn (73)
10. MSU (86)
11. Indiana (109)
12. Hawaii (122)
13. Colorado St. (129)

Final Overall SP+ rankings for 2022:

1. Michigan (3)
2. Ohio State (4)
3. Penn State (6)
4. Illinois (21)
5. Iowa (23)
6. Maryland (29)
7. MSU (68)
8. Nebraska (72)
9. Indiana (95)
10. Rutgers (97)
11. UConn (116)
12. Colorado St. (124)
13. Hawaii (128)

 

Joined: 08/09/2009

MGoPoints: 1294

grumbler

August 24th, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^

You have a lot of numbers here that don't seem to mean what you try to make them mean.  The fact that the possible score for offense is 234 and for defense is 195, for instance, is just a result of assumptions you make that the difference between any two position groups' place on the list is equal.  That isn't so - Alex stated that repeatedly.  It also is an artifact of the way position groups ar5e broken down.  The offense isn't really 20% more important than the defense when determining how good a team is.

Just because you can assign numbers to something doesn't mean you should.

 

Joined: 08/17/2011

MGoPoints: 14112

Phaedrus

August 24th, 2023 at 11:32 PM ^

I don't think quantifying predictions in this manner means what you think it means. Everyone is aware of the context so nobody is taking these very seriously. If anything, we can look at 2022 as a warning not to take the predictions too seriously. The obvious ones were right (the top and bottom) but the middle was hairy.

Predictions wouldn't be any fun if Illinois couldn't come along spoil them with their first good season since 2007 (?). Or MSU could fall flat on their face despite having a solid receiver core and QB.

I saw these data as a fun little reminder despite all the research we put into it, we have no idea how the season will play out. That's what makes it so exciting.

Joined: 09/02/2019

MGoPoints: 6532

4th phase

August 24th, 2023 at 9:24 PM ^

It’s interesting that you are able to combine Alex’s scouting with position weightings. Should almost adjust your weights based on the prior years outcomes. Tweak the model to make better predictions.

Joined: 12/12/2017

MGoPoints: 14012

spacecowboy

August 24th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^

the order seems irrelevant after the announcement of the captains.  however, thinking about this has me wanting to binge watch episodes of Hawaii 5 0.  Hoping fema has their shit together for the people in Maui impacted by the wildfires.  

Joined: 07/01/2018

MGoPoints: 3397