October 20th, 2015 at 7:46 PM ^
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October 20th, 2015 at 7:58 PM ^
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October 21st, 2015 at 5:46 AM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 7:20 PM ^
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October 20th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 1:44 AM ^
I don't know if this is what you're implying, but why shouldn't MSU get credit for playing a "tough" non-con schedule too? If what you mean is that the committee rewards teams for scheduling tough non-con games, then in my opinion MSU shouldn't be penalized for Oregon is having an atypical year. Either way, there's no way UM should get more credit for a 3-1 non-con than MSU for a 4-0 if that 4-0 includes any sort of legitimate team.
To summarize A team should get plenty of credit for beating a great non-con team that came out of nowhere (i.e. Utah this year), but a team's win against a team universally expected to be great but wasn't (i.e. Oregon) shouldn't be ignored.
By the way, the only way OSU drops that far is if they start falling before our matchup due to some sketchy wins and then Michigan blows them out.
October 21st, 2015 at 5:50 AM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
I cannot possibly agree with you that our loss, a game we had no business winning (Rudock not hitting receivers doesn not count as almost, he's done it all year), is nearly equivalent to MSU actually winning against a major program. A loss is a loss. We lost.
You're basically penalizing MSU for Oregon not being it's usual self, saying that they would have lost last year, so let's count it the same as another team's actual loss. I think that's asinine.
October 21st, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
But it's also pretty plausible that a good Oregon team beats them. The committee seems to rely heavily on OCC more than previous ranking systems, which is how OSU got in last year. I also don't see how you can rank OSU above Bama, TCU, and LSU with 1 loss for all of them. the hypothetical only works if you have 4 undefeateds, including Iowa, and then LSU, Bama, TCU/Baylor with one loss. They'd almost certainly be put down to around 8.
MSU is currently 7 at undefeated. It's pretty plausible that getting blown out by OSU would knock them out of the top ten. The way the game ended, and the huge coverage it got, will actually hurt MSU if this scenario happens. Add to the fact that Harbaugh carries so much weight in terms of opinion, and it's not that far fetched.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 8:05 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^
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October 20th, 2015 at 8:40 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 7:08 PM ^
Not even thinnking about this...I'm going to relish each game like it's the natioinal championship. I'm so happy to see competent well coached football being played by guys in Michigan uniforms.
October 20th, 2015 at 7:50 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 8:45 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 8:43 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 8:49 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 9:55 PM ^
Statistically, Indiana has the #1 QB, #2 WR, and #2 RB in the B1G. Sudfeld and their receiving corps can do to Sparty what Rudock couldn't. Of course, Indiana's defense is terrible, but it could become a shootout that rests on one or two fluke plays.
October 20th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^
There is a very solid chance that UM will jump MSU in the rankings if this scenario happens. Right now we are 15 and MSU is 7. Michigan will move up a few spots each week with wins and MSU will drop to at least 9 or 10 with a loss to OSU. If UM beats OSU as the number 1 ranked team, it should be enough to jump MSU. Then it will depend on how far OSU would fall. Definitely will need convincing wins though. Let's just hope Sparty loses 2 games and then we are back in business and don't need to rely on rankings.
October 21st, 2015 at 12:05 AM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 12:11 AM ^
See the Diary: Adv. Stats Win Probabilities Rehash for detailed rationale using the S&P+ probability models that still predict U-M as the favorite to win the B1G.
October 21st, 2015 at 8:13 AM ^
Not sure why you were downvoted, but thanks for posting. I was actually looking for this. I figured if we all lost 1 to each other, one of the tie breakers would be out of conference record, which we would lose.
This is MUCH more manageable than i thought. Michigan will need to win fairly big of course, which they were doing before last game. We have a bye, will get healthy and will give Harbaugh an extra week to get our kids head back on course.
Thanks for posting this.
October 21st, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
October 21st, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
I don't think it will happen but it's a bye week so shit let's play it out....
IF michigan goes 4-0 and looks good...like really good no reason they couldn't be ranked as high as #8-10 or so before the OSU game remember teams ahead of them will be losing!
OSU will crush the ever loving shit out of MSU and MSU will fall back a few spots in fact I bet they finish the year worse than #10.
If then a #8-10 UM can beat a #1 OSU I think there is an outside shot it could end up like UM at #4-6 and OSU right behind or right above them and UM gets the tie breaker.
LIsten it's a stretch. The likely scenario is...
MSU loses 2 more games
UM loses to OSU
OSU wins out
no drama no crazy scenarios. I think the key is michigan has 4 games to build up capital against teams they could dominate. This is going into weeks of big time matchups where teams ranked ahead of UM will be losing giving UM a good chance to move up in the polls.
October 21st, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^
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