UM Fan from Sydney

October 20th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^

Of course it is possible. This was discussed in the infinite amount of threads about this subject over the past three days. We need to win out and Michigan State needs to lose twice. The latter is highly unlikely.

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turtleboy

October 20th, 2015 at 5:38 PM ^

They don't need to lose twice. It would help if they lost twice, but they only need to lose once and be ranked below us in the CFP. Given the nature of their wins, and the nature of ours, it's plausible we jump them.

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ifis

October 20th, 2015 at 9:49 PM ^

in each of their remaining games, they have a roughly 31% chance of winning all 4 besides Ohio State

I'd say they have better odds than 75% against Indiana and Maryland, but worse odds than 75% against Nebraska and Penn State

most statistics give Sparty about a 50% chance of dropping two more games

 

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soup-er-UM

October 20th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^

I have heard mixed messages on which record would be applied by the B1G in the tie-breaker.  Obviously Dienhart wrote the article under the premise that it's only conference record, but the "standings" section of the Big Ten website implies it's overall record (http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/standings/m-footbl-standings.html).

Anyone heard anything definitive (other than just assuming Dienhart is correct obviously)?

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soup-er-UM

October 20th, 2015 at 6:14 PM ^

The reason for the question was that I read the article and found it to be in contrast to information I'd heard previously.  

Basically, the article contradicts both the message I'd heard and and the rankings on the conference website, so I asked the question looking for something definitive.  Not sure if anything like that exists (the conference rules don't clarify which "record" they refer to really) but thought it was worth a shot

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BornInAA

October 20th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^

Yeah anything can happen in theory

MSU and OSU and Michigan can lose the rest of their games and Penn State or Rutgers could go to the Rose Bowl.

It ain't happening

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I dumped the Dope

October 20th, 2015 at 7:52 PM ^

The B1G really really needs to clarify their language now otherwise its going to be a polarizing drama filled moment late in the season.

The scenarios are good to keep in mind but I hope the Team can shrug this off, just keep focusing on the next game.

My son and daughter love to run footraces.  I give my daughter a head start to try to equalize things.  But, she waits and watches her competition and ends up losing...rather than just putting the blinders on and running as hard as she can.  My coaching...well...is not so effective.

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UMfan21

October 20th, 2015 at 5:53 PM ^

This is where "style points" come into play.  We need to start beating the SHIT out of teams.  Like, go back to our 38-0 winning ways, but don't let off the gas in the 2nd half.  We need to earn votes in the next few weeks by demolishing every team we face.

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LSAClassOf2000

October 20th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^

I believe it is, and I will say that "Fletch" is a movie that is not referenced nearly enough on this board. It was on IFC or some other channel the other day and I still laugh all the way through it.

I always liked that scene where he shows up at Gail's door and she's got the towel on...."Hey, can I borrow your towel for a sec? My car just hit a water buffalo."

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UMfan21

October 20th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^

mathmatically I agree...but if we ran the table and won the Big Ten title, would they really snub us?  We have had 2 teams in the Top 5 most of the season.  If Michigan really won the championship in that conference (which means we were ranked higher than MSU and OSU) how could they snub us, even at 2 losses?

 

It would be interesting.

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bklein09

October 20th, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^

If we win out and make the BIG title game, it will heal the wound of last weekend in some ways. But will also sting as that fluke loss will likely keep us out of the playoffs no matter what.

However, if there is a lot of chaos towards the end of the year and a two loss team was going to make it in, you have to think the playoff committee would give us the benefit of a doubt for the MSU game (juggalo fluke) and the Utah game (first game with new coach on the road). It's a tiny chance, but not impossible.



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bklein09

October 20th, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^

Of course for anything I said to matter, we have to win out. Despite Harbaugh, I'm still a little worried about a collapse after last weeks game. Not a collapse like the past few years, but one in which we struggle against Minny and PSU and can't hang with OSU. I think the team is more resilient than that, but who could really blame them if we had a letdown.



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Perkis-Size Me

October 20th, 2015 at 6:24 PM ^

Just win baby. Not sure if the BTT game is in play at all, and my gut says it isn't, but a big NY6 game is very much in play if we manage to win out.

That ain't a bad consolation prize after the years of shit Michigan has gone through.



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Leonhall

October 20th, 2015 at 6:30 PM ^

State isn't beating OSU, so there's 1 loss. I think they'll be challenges slightly by IU, more so by PSU and @Nebraska. MSU is not very good. @nebraska because it's a road game, and PSU and IU because of their passing attacks. We have a difficult one at PSU and home vs OSU. There's a chance, I think a greater chance MSU loses twice.



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salami

October 20th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^

at the stadium...and now too many of you are believin'. 

This is not going to happen.  I'll eat a lemon if it does.

Just stop the nonsense.  The boys just need to stay healthy, keep winning, and we'll get to a nice bowl game.

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cp4three2

October 20th, 2015 at 6:47 PM ^

It's not that far fetched. Here’s my hopeful analysis: We're at 15, winning out would probably put us around 8 or so. It's not unreasonable that the final CFB rankings look something like this:
1. BU 12-0
2. Utah 12-0
3. Clemson 12-0
4. Iowa 12-0
5. Bama 11-1
6. LSU 11-1
7. TCU 11-1
8. OSU 11-1
9 Michigan 10-2 (after upsetting top ranked OSU)
10. MSU 11-1 (after getting blown out by OSU second last week)
 
This is assuming that Stanford loses a Pac 12 game somewhere and they beat ND. 
 
The CFB committee has rewarded teams for playing tough non conference and everyone saw the flukey loss on Saturday. Is this wishful thinking? Probably, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibilty. We want as many undefeated teams as possible. Jumping up 6 spots over the next 5 weeks isn't that crazy. If the rankings are within 1, it goes to head to head between the top 2.



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