Sweet 16 Matchup against TTU
Still nine minutes left in the TTU Buffalo game but the currently 29 point lead seems pretty insurmountable. Our shooting is going to have to be exceptional consistently. I think Teske will have to be a huge factor. Hope we’re all ready for a battle of the top 2 defenses.
If Buffalo does somehow come back to win I will gladly accept all jokes and shots.
It would be the greatest comeback in sports history. I don’t think anyone would roast you over it.
Fishbulb, you have been here for over seven years - he would undoubtedly have been roasted over it many times over. Even despite the fact that your first sentence is true.
gonna be a tight game unless one team gets hot from 3 - doubtfull with these defenses.
Brazdeikis cannot disappear.
If he'd develop a little teardrop shot near the rim he would be deadly.
All in good time my friend, all in good time.
Hopefully by Friday
Thursday preferably
Haha, damnit, I knew I should have checked the schedule before I posted it.
I'm going to salvage this by saying I hope he hits a tear drop late in overtime (triple maybe?) which will also happen to be after 12 EST.
I think Michigan wins by 12.
It would be nice. That score may legitimately looks like this: 40-28
At 126.5 points, this is looking like another good game to take the under.
It's the NCAA Tournament. You show up or go home-doesn't matter who you play.
The mismatches stop once you hit the Sweet Sixteen.
Everyone can play.
March 24th, 2019 at 11:05 PM ^
Yup. Tough sledding for everybody from here on out
You could show up and still go home.
Agreed-sort of. Tech will have to play well to win...I think that if even simply the "good" Michigan shows up Tech will go home no matter what.
Texas Tech plays exceptional defense. They aren’t like ultra talented but man they dig in. We will have to play very disciplined offensively. “Run our stuff” as Rafftery says. One or two stretches of hero-ball will spell doom. Also need to attack in transition.
I live in NY so I’ve watched some UB games with friends. UB plays super fast and loose. They want to run and shoot so I thought they were vulnerable to getting suffocated by a good D. I don’t think they were scared, they just aren’t used to seeing good defenses playing MAC teams all the time
Buffalo is really good if they can run. Texas Tech took that away.
At some point , MAC talent runs into a buzzsaw
Let’s hope it’s like last year. Everyone was afraid of A&M and we blew the doors off them. Beilein and Co. with a week to prepare seems alright to me.
I could be wrong, but A&M was relatively nobody last year. Their insta-hype came by blowing out UNC in the tourney.
Texas Tech is no fluke. We've been neck-and-neck with them atop the defense rankings all season long. They were in the Elite 8 last season. There's not a lot similar to last year's A&M.
But yes, fingers crossed for the same result.
I agree that Texas Tech is legit this year. But I will say Big 10 > Big 12 this year and its not even close. Realize this is head to head, but Michigan is used to playing teams like this night in an night out.
The Big Ten has played very well in this tournament, which is encouraging. The top three teams waltzed into the Sweet Sixteen, and Maryland/Iowa were pretty close. I imagine OSU is gonna die momentarily, but we'll see.
A slow and painful death for the buckeyes would be enjoyable.
Great point. Michigan has faced top tier defenses all season. Not sure who the best defense tech has played, but it won’t be anything near our level. Should be a great game regardless.
Kansas State was 5th in defensive efficiency, Tech scored 63 (Lubbock) and 45 (Manhattan) against them. Duke was 6th, Tech scored 58 (MSG). Kansas 16th, Tech scored 63 (Lawrence) and 91 (Lubbock). Oklahoma 25th, Tech scored 66 each time.
Michigan was 2.7 points per 100 possessions better than K State, 3.3 better than Duke. There is a sizable gap between Texas Tech, Michigan, and #3 (Wisconsin/UVA are tied).
K State, twice, then Duke. They split with K State; they won 63-57 in Lubbock and lost 68-45 in the Little Apple. They lost to Duke 69-58.
Duke's defensive profile is more similar to Michigan's than KSU's -- KSU forces a lot of turnovers but allows a lot of threes.
March 24th, 2019 at 11:09 PM ^
Yes! What a luxury to have a coach like Beilein.
Great times to be a Michigan fan!!
not phased by TTU. they aren't big, not lightning fast, their shooting vs. buffalo has been pretty poor, or at least it was last time i checked the box score. looked at their schedule, not overly tough. lost to duke by 11, thats their toughest game.
i think our bigs outplay theirs, i think they don't get much from the 3, and our D > ttu D.
michigan will be favored by 6-7 pts and we make that.
That Duke game was far closer than the final margin indicates. I'm fairly sure Duke ended the game on a 10+ run.
They have some length and strong dudes in post. I worry about teske foul problems ... they also rebound real well
actually think TT will be favored
Michigan will definitely be favored, but not by much. Kenpom spreads reflects Vegas spreads plus or minus 1 point over 80% of the time. Right now, we are three point favorites via Kenpom. You can also factor in that we will have many more fans at that game in Anaheim than they will.
1 point favorite per kenpom
No, Michigan is a one-point favorite in KenPom.
You forgot to adjust points per 100 possessions to points per game. KenPom has a 62-61 Michigan victory in 64 possessions.
Yes, Michigan will be favored. Kenpom has been updated since my post (added data from Buffalo game). We are still favored. Texas tech is an excellent team. It will take our best effort to win. I believe that we will find a way, and the most objective measures that we have to predict games also say the same.
Go blue!
Well if nothing else we should have a sizable fan advantage. The West Coast alums should flood into Anaheim this week.
During the game broadcast, they were talking about how far it is from TX Tech to Anaheim, to discern if the TT fans will travel and show up like they did at Tulsa.
That's the beauty of Michigan. The fans don't have to travel . . . they are already there.
Michigan has a huge alumni base in every major city. It's just not about who comes in from Ann Arbor.
Mgobloggers can go ahead and start wringing their hands. I'll sit this one out. Because Michigan will handle TT.
Rock fight!
Texas Tech is a good team with an elite defense but they've struggled against good defenses. I looked this up before the tournament, but I'll repost my comment here:
Texas Tech has a really good defense but, weirdly, I'm not all that worried unless it's paired with a good offense, which TT doesn't really have. Michigan has played a decent number of top-30 defenses (per KenPom) and mostly done fine against them except MSU; 1.2 ppp vs. UNC, .87 and 1.02 against Wisconsin, 1.25 against NW, 1.05 vs. PSU, 1.05 vs. OSU, 1.02 and 1.19 against Maryland,and 1.25 and 1.07 vs. IU. Yes, those aren't peel-their-faces-off numbers in most of those games, but Michigan's offense really doesn't get that bogged down against good defenses any more than you'd expect from mortal offenses. I think we're so used to Michigan bombing teams into the stone age with record-breaking offenses that sometimes just having a pretty good one is considered a failing.
But Michigan can win in a rock fight against TT. Other than the time they hung 91 on Kansas in a crazy game, they barely broke 1 ppp against a top-30 defense they played all season. FSU scares the crap out of me because they seem capable of winning such a game, but that's deep enough into the tourney it's hard to get worried yet.
It's going to be a really tough game, but I trust that Beilein can concoct a functional offense against what Tech will do. Tech will have some counters, but it may shock people to learn that Buffalo had a worse offense per KenPom (20th compared to 18th) than Michigan and paired it with a fine defense (29th).
The only thing I know is regurgitating national analysts who all had the same general take that Michigan and Tech were similar but Tech's offense seemed to be hitting their stride down the stretch more than UM.
Then again, they were likely saying that after watching Michigan repeatedly bang their head into the MSU wall to close the season, so who knows.
March 24th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
This will be a shocker but much like in football the Big 12 isn't known for it's defense. Yes, TT scored over a point per possession against a couple of teams to end the year but they still barely put up 1.00 ppp against WVU, and against a WKU team with the nations 134th-ranked defense they scored...1.03 ppp. Michigan, by comparison, put up 1.05 ppp against Florida and nobody thought that was particularly fun or "good".
Michigan plays very slowly and, provided they don't have a ton of turnovers, should limit Texas Tech's offense, which is (seemingly) mostly based on scoring on transition. Yes they got hot against Buffalo and to a lesser extent WKU, and they are (slightly) better shooting team overall than UM, but not be some grand margin and they have a pretty clear propensity to suffer when playing some of the more engaged defenses.
Again, TT is a really good team and I wouldn't be remotely surprised if they beat UM. But watching the game you could see how Buffalo just sort of got shook a bit from the intensity shown on defense, and I'm fairly certain UM will be better able to handle it.
March 24th, 2019 at 10:57 PM ^
X won't let that happen to Michigan.
Hearing that Texas Tech just blew the doors off a team with a Top 25ish Ken Pom offense and defense is not particularly comforting.
You're still going to contend that you're not a pessimist, right? :)
Michigan would have handled Buffalo just as easily. TTU and Michigan are mirror images of each other; they both play defense that suffocates a fast-paced team like Buffalo.
I was pulling for Buffalo, of course, but TTU is eminently beatable. They gave up 79 points to an awful WVU team in the Big 12 tournament. They also lost a game 58-45 to KSU, another team with a top-5 KenPom defense.
March 24th, 2019 at 11:00 PM ^
Like I noted, they blew the doors off Kansas as well. But in the end, TT scored 1.03 ppp against Buffalo, which is less than UM's 1.05 they put up against Florida. And nobody is talking about UM's amazing offensive performance in that game.
Nobody is saying TT is a cakewalk, but they aren't dominant. Michigan is a 1-point favorite per KenPom, and that feels about right.